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How would Ireland fair in the event of Nuclear War?

Lawyer.02

Sorry if this doesn't belong hear but i figured that considering Politics would be at fault...

With Everything going on in the world right now I cant help but wonder how safe the country i'm living in is.
So i'm just wondering if anyone could help me answer two questions i've been obsessing over for a bit now:

If the UK took a nuke, would the fall out reach Ireland? how much and what parts?
I've heard the wind blows in the wrong direction for it to reach us but i don't know how much stock to out in that?

What is the likelihood of Ireland taking a nuke of its own?

Thanks

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AnGaelach

wotswattage wrote: »

I often wondered how a country like ours which would probably be less devastated after a war would fare. Would Ireland suddenly become a desirable place to invade??

There's only solution. Ireland must develop its own strategic nuclear arsenal to rival the USSR.

alastair

AnGaelach wrote: »

There's only solution. Ireland must develop its own strategic nuclear arsenal to rival the USSR.

Or we can just all move to Limerick, which would be environmentally unaltered by both infrastructural damage and subsequent nuclear winters. It's already pretty much like the last 15 minutes of 'Threads'.

Overheal

AnGaelach wrote: »

There's only solution. Ireland must develop its own strategic nuclear arsenal to rival the USSR.

I thought about Ireland developing such high technology then I thought about

AnGaelach

alastair wrote: »

Or we can just all move to Limerick, which would be environmentally unaltered by both infrastructural damage and subsequent nuclear winters. It's already pretty much like the last 15 minutes of 'Threads'.

I'd prefer nuclear holocaust to having to listen to that accent every day.

Brasros

Sure don't we all still have the iodine tabets that the state gave us years back...

Stasi 2.0

Firefox11 wrote: »

the Channel 4 documentary about the Able Archer exercise, Pershing 2 in europe etc, in 1983 called '1983 - The Brink of Apocalypse' (can be found online).f.

Blocked on copyright grounds unfortunately.

gctest50

Brasros wrote: »

Sure don't we all still have the iodine tabets that the state gave us years back...

be grand so :

gitzy16v

Watched that film,fcukd up stuff,hope Hillary doesn't fcuk around with Russia that Putin lad doesn't give a toss

gctest50

Be grand, you'll have your iodine tablets

gitzy16v

gctest50 wrote: »

Be grand, you'll have your iodine tablets

I misplaced mine...I'm fcuked...have you any spare...

Stasi 2.0

gitzy16v wrote: »

I misplaced mine...I'm fcuked...have you any spare...

Was every household issued with the same number of iodine tablets regardless of whether one or ten people live there ?

Is there anywhere one can buy iodine tablets now ?

BoJack Horseman

Stasi 2.0 wrote: »

Is there anywhere one can buy iodine tablets now ?

A multi-vitamin tablet will usually have your 100% RDA allowance of Iodine.

Stasi 2.0

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

A multi-vitamin tablet will usually have your 100% RDA allowance of Iodine.

Think the iodine tablets we're talking about would have >1000% or more of the normal RDA since the idea is to saturate the thyroid with stable iodine so that it doesn't soak up the radioactive sort.

Not sure how many tablets one would need. Some of the civil defence literature I've read mentions spending two weeks or more in shelter although one can emerge for short periods towards the end of that time.

4068ac1elhodqr

Iodised salt and 'sea vegetables' (weed) or scampi (not from the seas around Japan) along with fish & dairy are good sources.

Some folks suggest anywhere from 125micrograms, up to 10mg, per day just to re-balance the amount of 131 from all the current/recent global releases. But it's important not to have too much, nor too little. Loading (50mg) isn't recommended, and it wouldn't be a quick fix to any problems, typically a 6 month period to balance out the bad stuff.

Bromine (in bread) and fluoride (water) can compete with it. Selenium (in Brazil Nuts) is also a beneficial supplement (works intimately with iodine as precursors to thyroid hormones). In summary, always dab a bit of North Atlantic Sea Salt on yer fish n chips.

BabyE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3AzwBPnUxs

Depends on nukes, I reckon if France got hit bad we'd be ****ed.

realitykeeper

Lawyer.02 wrote: »

Sorry if this doesn't belong hear but i figured that considering Politics would be at fault...

With Everything going on in the world right now I cant help but wonder how safe the country i'm living in is.
So i'm just wondering if anyone could help me answer two questions i've been obsessing over for a bit now:

If the UK took a nuke, would the fall out reach Ireland? how much and what parts?
I've heard the wind blows in the wrong direction for it to reach us but i don't know how much stock to out in that?

What is the likelihood of Ireland taking a nuke of its own?

Thanks

Threads is the most realistic movie I have seen about nuclear war. Here is a clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrHoMSRZOS4

Benjamin Nethanyahu recently said the most important lesson to be learned from the holocaust is that a country should not expect to be defended if it cannot defend itself. If he is right, Ireland is vulnerable.

If Donald Trump is elected, he may decide the US should become isolationist. If so, Russia may become more expansionist. If so, Russia may deploy some blunt instruments against terrorist states and it may take an uncompromising and aggressive attitude toward Europe because of recent European sanctions and ideological differences.

Given what is now known about nuclear weapons, it is reasonable to assume that whoever is the first to use them in a future war is likely to be the bad guy. Of course, politicians tend to prioritize self interest over anything else so given that they do not want to be nuked themselves or spend the rest of their lives in a bunker, they tend to shy away from deploying nuclear weapons. That said, nuclear weapons are not the only instruments of mass destruction and conventional weaponry and war is devastating enough.

Lemming

realitykeeper wrote: »

Given what is now known about nuclear weapons, it is reasonable to assume that whoever is the first to use them in a future war is likely to be the bad guy.

That's ignoring all history regards the Cold war. NATO relied on the threat of nuclear weapons to ward off any notions the USSR had of trying to annex parts of western Europe. The significantly larger size of of the Warsaw pact forces placed NATO at a numerical disadvantage, hence the reliance on the threat of nuclear retaliation, and much of the USSR's posturing was not aimed at the USA but at its allies in Europe in an attempt to intimidate & cow them into submission.

Nukes will be used by either the person who panics first, or who has their back pushed against the wall (e.g. the Soviets rolling over NATO forces), or is just completely nuts.

Edit: incidentally, Ireland (the republic) would more than likely take three or four nukes to "deny aid & comfort to the enemy", namely NATO countries with whome we have a historically amicable relationship. Dublin, Cork, possibly Shannon & that great big oil storage refinery on the west coast (I think) of Cork. That's excluding Belfast which would most certainly get hit.

realitykeeper

Lemming wrote: »

Edit: incidentally, Ireland (the republic) would more than likely take three or four nukes to "deny aid & comfort to the enemy", namely NATO countries with whome we have a historically amicable relationship. Dublin, Cork, possibly Shannon & that great big oil storage refinery on the west coast (I think) of Cork. That's excluding Belfast which would most certainly get hit.

You may be right but I think Ireland`s "close relationship" with the UK is based on practicality and to some extent forced niceness. Historically, I would not call Ireland`s relationship with the UK "amicable," at least not if you consider the real Irish to be people and not just part of the scenery like the wildebeest in Africa.

There is also a tendency in Ireland to take the American side in an argument between Russia and the US which is unfortunate because Russia in recent times, has been right far more than the USA. Russia has the potential to be a valuable trade partner with Ireland while the USA is likely to become an economic basket case in the near future (due to QE) and will therefore have nothing useful to offer.

4068ac1elhodqr

Remember back in the 80's our Physics teacher saying we'd have between 20-40mins to get yellow hard hats on, before physical shock-waves arrived, following the initial flash. The flash (at speed of light) coming from any fairly nearby cities within 40-100miles type ranges.

Also back then one of the Sunday tabloids ran a front page story mentioning the had seen maps and that large port cities such as Ggow, LPool and SHampton each had a (very minimum of x3) large payloads (each) pointed at them from the East. Along with around 100 other areas.

Reckon there is only a 0.5% chance of anything like this ever occurring, as a small conventional bish-bash would suit any side to flex their egos/muscles. If it did ever get hot, unfortunately it would be a three round boxing match with stuff flying in from everywhere, even from space

Some folks were giving off after the recent live 3rd debate, as Hilly disclosed to the world that they had a '4 minute' reaction time.

Lemming

realitykeeper wrote: »

You may be right but I think Ireland`s "close relationship" with the UK is based on practicality and to some extent forced niceness. Historically, I would not call Ireland`s relationship with the UK "amicable," at least not if you consider the real Irish to be people and not just part of the scenery like the wildebeest in Africa.

There is also a tendency in Ireland to take the American side in an argument between Russia and the US which is unfortunate because Russia in recent times, has been right far more than the USA. Russia has the potential to be a valuable trade partner with Ireland while the USA is likely to become an economic basket case in the near future (due to QE) and will therefore have nothing useful to offer.

None of which stops the Russians deciding on strategic nuking of Cork harbour, Dublin port, Dublin airport, possibly Shannon, along with Belfast docks to deny use by NATO forces, practicalities of our relationship with the UK be damned. Whether or not it's considered fashionable among certain sections of the Irish population to admit it, we do have a close relationship with the UK; certainly a lot closer than with any other nation bar perhaps the US on historical misty-eyed nostalgia grounds.

Incidentally, target locations with 'heavy plant' equipment such as railyards & docks would also more than likely take ground-strikes, not air-bursts, in order to ensure the destruction of said equipment. So with the exception of Dublin airport, we'd be looking at extensive fallout over most of the country. In short, within about six months the country would be virtually uninhabited by survivors because there'd be next to none left alive from the ensuing radiation poisoning.

You'd be better off running towards the nearest target if the air-raid sirens start going off in the hope that you get vaporised in a millisecond. It would be a kindness to yourself, and that's the horrible and very grim truth of the matter.

Avalynn Slow Klutz wrote: »

Remember back in the 80's our Physics teacher saying we'd have between 20-40mins to get yellow hard hats on, before physical shock-waves arrived, following the initial flash. The flash (at speed of light) coming from any fairly nearby cities within 40-100miles type ranges.

20-40 mins? more like 2-4 minutes. Whilst it's always going to be military targets first before industrial followed by civilian, Liverpool would get hit in the first wave of nukes because it houses elements of the Royal Navy, with Holyhead, Fishguard, and Cardiff to follow shortly after in either the 2nd or 3rd strikes. No idea if Sellafield would take a hit, but if it did, jesus f*cking christ on a stick say goodbye to anything above Dundalk on the Eastern seaboard because if the military-grade spent-fuel storage sheds went up that explosion would be mahoosive.

4068ac1elhodqr

Lemming wrote: »

20-40 mins? more like 2-4 minutes.

Think the 20mins would be for the fallout and damage based on an extended shockwave speed of around 500-600mph.
The newspaper said it would triple strike just in the 1st round for the large targets.

Perhaps a good time to start one of those basement/bunker type building firms, there's always a demand for cinema rooms, saunas and lower level gyms anyway.

AnGaelach

realitykeeper wrote: »

There is also a tendency in Ireland to take the American side in an argument between Russia and the US which is unfortunate because Russia in recent times, has been right far more than the USA. Russia has the potential to be a valuable trade partner with Ireland while the USA is likely to become an economic basket case in the near future (due to QE) and will therefore have nothing useful to offer.

What sort of reality are you keeping exactly?

Jawgap

Lemming wrote: »

None of which stops the Russians deciding on strategic nuking of Cork harbour, Dublin port, Dublin airport, possibly Shannon, along with Belfast docks to deny use by NATO forces, practicalities of our relationship with the UK be damned. Whether or not it's considered fashionable among certain sections of the Irish population to admit it, we do have a close relationship with the UK; certainly a lot closer than with any other nation bar perhaps the US on historical misty-eyed nostalgia grounds.

Incidentally, target locations with 'heavy plant' equipment such as railyards & docks would also more than likely take ground-strikes, not air-bursts, in order to ensure the destruction of said equipment. So with the exception of Dublin airport, we'd be looking at extensive fallout over most of the country. In short, within about six months the country would be virtually uninhabited by survivors because there'd be next to none left alive from the ensuing radiation poisoning.

You'd be better off running towards the nearest target if the air-raid sirens start going off in the hope that you get vaporised in a millisecond. It would be a kindness to yourself, and that's the horrible and very grim truth of the matter.

20-40 mins? more like 2-4 minutes. Whilst it's always going to be military targets first before industrial followed by civilian, Liverpool would get hit in the first wave of nukes because it houses elements of the Royal Navy, with Holyhead, Fishguard, and Cardiff to follow shortly after in either the 2nd or 3rd strikes. No idea if Sellafield would take a hit, but if it did, jesus f*cking christ on a stick say goodbye to anything above Dundalk on the Eastern seaboard because if the military-grade spent-fuel storage sheds went up that explosion would be mahoosive.

None of those are strategic targets - in the sense that while they may be strategic to us, they are not strategic to NATO.

Whiddy is the storage terminal you're thinking of in your earlier post, and while it's big for us and holds about 30% of our national oil reserve, it's not big in the over all scheme of things - if the Russians wanted rid of it a conventional strike would be just as effective, rather than wasting a nuke - a couple of Kh-55 cruise missiles would do the job.

Also plant and equipment (and urban areas) would definitely be targeted by air bursts - the shockwave knockdown, knock over and destroy structures and equipment, etc With a ground burst, the physical damage might be greater but it would be confined to a smaller area and you lose most of the EMP effects which with an airburst weapon can fry electronics out to a much greater distance than a ground burst.

If the Russkies really wanted to 'nuke' us - it would be simple......a high altitude detonation over the Irish Sea, the EMP would fry nearly all our electronics, as well as most of the electronics on the west coast of the UK - although they've probably a bit more hardened electronic systems than we have.

Cheerful Spring

I don't think anyone can say for sure what it would be like because a full scale nuclear war has never happened. I would suspect the air quality would be **** for a few weeks. Not sure a few hundred nukes exploding would be enough to change our climate?

Would Shannon airport be hit? Maybe, but then again American military aircraft land there only to refuel, and its rare they do nowadays. Shannon does not house foreign military aircraft or have foreign troops stationed there. Using a nuke to blow up runways? Waste of time as far i am aware American bombers fly over the Pacific to reach and hit Russian strategic targets so why would they bother bombing Shannon. Maybe they would hit airports here to prevent UK aircraft having a safe place to land after takeoff? Other then that stupid to hit the Republic of Ireland, other then to just kill more people for the hell of it.

Jawgap

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

I don't think anyone can say for sure what it would be like because a full scale nuclear war has never happened. I would suspect the air quality would be **** for a few weeks. Not sure a few hundred nukes exploding would be enough to change our climate?

Would Shannon airport be hit? Maybe, but then again American military aircraft land there only to refuel, and its rare they do nowadays. Shannon does not house foreign military aircraft or have foreign troops stationed there. Using a nuke to blow up runways? Waste of time as far i am aware American bombers fly over the Pacific to reach and hit Russian strategic targets so why would they bother bombing Shannon. Maybe they would hit airports here to prevent UK aircraft having a safe place to land after takeoff? Other then that stupid to hit the Republic of Ireland, other then to just kill more people for the hell of it.

Shannon is not militarily essential, they stop there just to give the troops a break - the majority of aircraft using it could readily overfly it without too many problems.

During the various REFORGER exercises during the Cold War it was never used and never included in the plans.

Having a large number of aircraft use it creates an easily avoidable logistic wrinkle (aircraft landing there would have to be re-fuelled which means shipping in quantities of aviation fuel and making an allocation in the supply chain for it).

Tony EH

AnGaelach wrote: »

What sort of reality are you keeping exactly?

That's a question that been asked many times.

Jimmy Garlic

During the cold war Shannon was a designated target for the Soviets. Probably still is for the Russians. That would be Limerick gone.

AnGaelach

It still begs the question how Ireland would actually fare in the event of nuclear war. We likely won't be involved militarily and I don't think we'd be the sight of any major strikes, so it boils down to a sort of "what shape will we be in economically/politically?"

I don't think we will be stuck for goods like food since it's estimated we produce enough for ~35 million already and will try to increase production to support 50 million people (https://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/jun/30/ireland-economic-recovery). We also have an abundance of water and treat/sanitise plenty, if we didn't waste so much with terrible pipe systems we'd be fine.

However, we lack any sort of petroleum production, I don't think we could rely on turf like we did in the Second World War, and our reserve does not seem particularly high. No doubt we would find it difficult to procure oil shipments if the UK was at war (either from the UK or on the market due to sinking/price rises). Coupled with the simple fact we import about 85% of our energy, this could be used to leverage us into having to agree to certain agreements (e.g. allowing British or American ships to use Cobh, allowing British/American aircraft to fly through Irish airspace).

A question would be, how would we cope with an influx of refugees and on what scale would they be coming? No doubt we'd get some from Britain (I presume many thousands of Irish people would also go to the US/UK to work where possible), but what would the scale look like from mainland Europe? What sort of struggle would be see on infrastructure as a result and could we cope with 1-2 million people making their way here?

Would Ireland end up being like Israel (with the massive influx of Russian Jews) and developing a highly skilled R&D economy? Would we end up like Lebanon and struggle to cope with the influxes? Hell, if we're dealing with the possibility of nuclear winter, would we just not let them in?

Tangent aside, it's a pretty interesting scenario to think about.

Jawgap

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

During the cold war Shannon was a designated target for the Soviets. Probably still is for the Russians. That would be Limerick gone.

No it wasn't as the article I posted way back in the thread made clear. Ireland never figured in Soviet strategic calculations.

Stealthfins

The Russians flew more flights from Ireland during the 80's.
Every second flight in Shannon was an Aeroflot on its way or coming from Cuba or other parts of South America....