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The beginning of the end for taxi drivers

eeguy

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.

These professionally trained engineers sit with their fingertips on the wheel, ready to take control if the car encounters an unexpected obstacle. A co-pilot, in the front passenger seat, takes notes on a laptop, and everything that happens is recorded by cameras inside and outside the car so that any glitches can be ironed out.

Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.

Trips will be free for the time being, rather than the standard local rate of $1.30 per mile. In the long run, Kalanick says, prices will fall so low that the per-mile cost of travel, even for long trips in rural areas, will be cheaper in a driverless Uber than in a private car.

Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

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laugh

If you automated every job you could with technology how would the economy function at all?

andekwarhola

laugh wrote: »

If you automated every job you could with technology how would the economy function at all?

Labour patterns will adapt. Plenty of jobs, even trades, have became obsolete in the past.

flutered

eeguy wrote: »

Mining trucks drive autonomously on dirt tracks day in day out. You don't need white lines and clear weather.

Well you book it through an app, which presumably has your credit card details, and I'm sure they'll have cameras inside to stop people wrecking them.

I'm waiting for the taxi sex tapes.

there is plenty of them about, i was following a link about taxi's, when low and behold

Jawgap

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

All Uber gives me for right now (as an unregistered user) is Uber Black. Estimate €35-€45.:rolleyes:

The Taxi Calculator at least gives the 'no traffic/heavy traffic' estimates.

Funny enough, uber estimate for a run I usually do in Boston is giving me a very exact $7-84 (Edit: for uberPOOL) - and spreads for the other uber 'products' - none of the spreads are greater than 20% compared to 50% for the taxi calculator here!

Billy86

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

Which is completely illegal here...
...which again is why I linked to the Fare Calculator.

http://uberestimate.com - Marlay Park to Dublin airport = 39-49 Euro
https://www.transportforireland.ie/taxi/taxi-fare-estimator/ = 46 - 57 Euro

One other thing I forgot that helps offset surge charges: Uber costs less than taxis.

The surge pricing is actually a good thing in a sense, as it notifies the drivers when it is occurring too which causes a good few to rush to that area (subway stations following breakdowns are a common one apparently), which in turn alleviates the surge. Say if I were standing on O'Connell St. at 3am on a Saturday night/Sunday morning or in town during rush hour and needing to get somewhere, I'd much rather having the option of paying extra than not having the option to get one at all.

And like I said, it's not like they sneak this fee on you. You literally have to type in how much it says the surge is before being able to order one. Not even 'tap here to agree' - they go out of their way to make you put in how much it is. If it's at something absurd like x4.5 (blizzards, New Years) you know long before even requesting the ride that you usual $10 fare will now be about $45. I don't see that as a bad deal on the consumer at all.

mgbgt1978

@Jawgap. So you can do a check for an Uber run in Boston but couldn't manage to do a quick comparison for the same Airport/ Abbey st run in Dublin between Taxis and Uber ?

See ya....

Billy86

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

All Uber gives me for right now (as an unregistered user) is Uber Black. Estimate €35-€45.:rolleyes:

The Taxi Calculator at least gives the 'no traffic/heavy traffic' estimates.

Yeah, and it's telling me Marlay Park to Dublin airport in heavy traffic is about 48 mins.

Uhhh.... nnnnope! :pac:

Jawgap

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

@Jawgap. So you can do a check for an Uber run in Boston but couldn't manage to do a quick comparison for the same Airport/ Abbey st run in Dublin between Taxis and Uber ?

See ya....

Well not all uber products are available here, and to be honest I've never used an uber in Ireland - I rarely use taxis (got fed up getting ripped off) and work tends to use Murrays or Devine's for airport runs.

alb

laugh wrote: »

If you automated every job you could with technology how would the economy function at all?

We're about to find out.

Billy86

Jawgap wrote: »

Well not all uber products are available here, and to be honest I've never used an uber in Ireland - I rarely use taxis (got fed up getting ripped off) and work tends to use Murrays or Devine's for airport runs.

What's the deal there with Satnavs by the way? Every Uber I've got here has a Satnav in it that the driver apparently has to follow, unless otherwise instructed. It's very handy against the carry on where you see tourists brought from Dublin Airport to the city centre via Dundrum.

riclad

there s a big parking area for taxi,s in dublin airport ,
I cant imagine a time when its hard to get a taxi from the airport ,
and you have the choice of using a bus .
the point of uber in the usa is its easy to use,
Almost anyone can be a uber driver , it competes with the old system
where only owners of a medallion could drive a taxi.
A medallion in the us was 50,000 dollars plus.
Right now the market in ireland is deregulated ,
all you have to do to drive a taxi, is pass a test ,re maps ,street locations, ,your car is tested ,
and your meter is tested .
i think it,ll be ten years before we see self driving cars In everyday use in dublin,
Dublin has many short narrow streets and theres always roadworks ,
bus lanes and one way systems .
american citys have wide motorways and a grid layout system of roads .

Billy86

riclad wrote: »

the point of uber in the usa is its easy to use,

How would it be more difficult to use in Ireland?

El Hombre

A few things here

1. With human drivers gone, how is the income tax and other government levies to be made back on a driverless car, bus or lorry? Will Uber, Google and the likes be expected to pay massive taxes? Vat on customer charges and normal taxes by a company won't cut it

If so where do you think they'll make back the extra money?

2. This whole "oh any job lost will have new jobs in building and engineer jobs to maintain the cars replace them"

Well most of the bloody things will be built on an autonomous assembly lines even more than cars and that are now and for example do you really think say 30,000 drivers let go will result in anywhere near that number of maintenance jobs? Maybe a couple thousand if you are lucky.

3. How will we cope with the welfare bill down the line? It's easy say oh let them retrain, but as what? The amount of occupations looking to use autonomous tech means their will be severely reduced options

4. Lads saying reduce or cut welfare entirely then if their are too many people on it as a result, eh do you think they'll be happy sit on the side of the road wasting away like a portrait of a famine victim? I think lads will get a sharp shock when they are being broken into and mugged due to people trying to survive.

Frankly, a first step into an era of automation such as driveeless taxis and lorries might be handled.

But I think down the road from that where we may be looking at 60-75% of human labor opportunities gone due to increasing numbers of job loss to automatic tech society is gonna have a problem we wont even be able to begin to handle.

eeguy

BabyE wrote: »

Read a great article about how these ****ing nerds in silicon valley are forcing the type of society that nobody wants. Hard to argue.

I'm fairly sure most people awant a society where you're chauffeured everywhere.

mgbgt1978

riclad wrote: »

there s a big parking area for taxi,s in dublin airport ,
I cant imagine a time when its hard to get a taxi from the airport ,
and you have the choice of using a bus .
the point of uber in the usa is its easy to use,
Almost anyone can be a uber driver , it competes with the old system
where only owners of a medallion could drive a taxi.
A medallion in the us was 50,000 dollars plus.
Right now the market in ireland is deregulated ,
all you have to do to drive a taxi, is pass a test ,re maps ,street locations, ,your car is tested ,
and your meter is tested .
i think it,ll be ten years before we see self driving cars In everyday use in dublin,
Dublin has many short narrow streets and theres always roadworks ,
bus lanes and one way systems .
american citys have wide motorways and a grid layout system of roads .

On paper yes,
however from nationaltransport.ie;

At present, the National Transport Authority is accepting applications for new vehicle licences only for wheelchair accessible taxis, wheelchair accessible hackneys, local area hackneys and limousines

so it's wheelchair accessible only for new entrants...and they will always have to remain as a wheelchair accessible Taxi, even when changing their vehicle.

As for the Uberpop (private cars) advocates, it seems they don't want them here yet;

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/shane-ross-advised-not-to-extend-uber-beyond-taxi-drivers-1.2655145

Billy86

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

As for the Uberpop (private cars) advocates, it seems they don't want them here yet;

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/shane-ross-advised-not-to-extend-uber-beyond-taxi-drivers-1.2655145

They tried the same in Toronto and it failed miserably. The advantage that the Irish taxi lobby has is that (as best I know) Uber is not there yet, so people will not be aware of what they are missing. I doubt that would last too long though, with the internet, how easy it is to travel to other countries and use Uber on holidays etc, and hearing about how it works from friends and family living abroad given how often Irish people move abroad for work.

Public opinion won here, and likely would do the same in Ireland in time. The taxi drivers had a mickey fit, and it changed nothing.

For what I am aware though, the taxi industry here was regulated so a bit like Ireland 15 years back. That played a big role in people telling the taxi drivers to f*** themselves, getting sick having to walk miles out of the way to get a taxi while others decided they 'didnt want' the fare because of how the person was dressed, because they didn't think the fare was worthwhile ($$$), or because they weren't sexy women dolled up to the nines.

As far as I am concerned, Irish taxi drivers around before deregulation were the exact same (I know that for a fact based on personal experience), and Irish taxi drivers who started after deregulation were more than happy to move in on others peoples' businesses, so they don't have much leg to stand on when it comes to people moving in on theirs.

mgbgt1978

Billy86 wrote: »

What's the deal there with Satnavs by the way? Every Uber I've got here has a Satnav in it that the driver apparently has to follow, unless otherwise instructed. It's very handy against the carry on where you see tourists brought from Dublin Airport to the city centre via Dundrum.

Perhaps that traffic info is harvested from all the Uber Drivers and maybe they sell it to the organisations that can use it. Traffic news reports, City councils etc.
Maybe if you "hail" an Uber from a certain Store/Restaurant/etc regularly, you might just see Ads from that Establishment popping up on your Facebook or Google homepage later on.
I'm sure it's more than just for the customer's benefit.

Elliott S

murpho999 wrote: »

Of course, as all roads in America are completely straight.

Not all of course, but most American towns and cities are built around a grid system.

Billy86

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

Perhaps that traffic info is harvested from all the Uber Drivers and maybe they sell it to the organisations that can use it. Traffic news reports, City councils etc.
Maybe if you "hail" an Uber from a certain Store/Restaurant/etc regularly, you might just see Ads from that Establishment popping up on your Facebook or Google homepage later on.
I'm sure it's more than just for the customer's benefit.

Location based ads happen already, and using people working in traffic to help report on/track traffic for the news if a good thing, not just for potential customers but for everyone. I fail to see what the problem there is?

mgbgt1978

Billy86 wrote: »

They tried the same in Toronto and it failed miserably. The advantage that the Irish taxi lobby has is that (as best I know) Uber is not there yet, so people will not be aware of what they are missing. I doubt that would last too long though, with the internet, how easy it is to travel to other countries and use Uber on holidays etc, and hearing about how it works from friends and family living abroad given how often Irish people move abroad for work.

Public opinion won here, and likely would do the same in Ireland in time.

There are a lot more issues here in Ireland than just the Licensing. At present a "Private" Individual could not do any Uber work under their motor Insurance Policy. Insurance rates are at an all time high here right now and will probably take years to settle down to a more affordable level. That would be a huge issue.
There are (apparently) more licenced Taxis in dublin today than there are in Central New York. there is very little chance of the Government interfering with that situation.
The law also states that you need to have a "PSV Drivers Licence" to carry passengers for hire or reward. Either that stipulation would have to be removed or else anybody wishing to join as an Uber Driver would have to sit the Test.

Finally, Public opinion in Ireland is rarely a Government consideration, unless it benefits them in a large capacity.

mgbgt1978

Billy86 wrote: »

Location based ads happen already, and using people working in traffic to help report on/track traffic for the news if a good thing, not just for potential customers but for everyone. I fail to see what the problem there is?

You asked the question without seeming to realise why Satnavs are used.
I'm glad you're suddenly an expert on the underlying reason for their usage :rolleyes:

I never said there was a problem.

riclad

Is there not apps like hailo ,in the irish market right now .We probably have enough Taxi drivers here already,
Uber provided new competition in the us by allowing new drivers to enter the market ,and by provided an advanced easy to use app for
finding drivers and making it easy to pay your fare using your phone.
i don,t see a big market her for uber to get into .
the taxi lobby here does not have much power vs public opinion .

Billy86

mgbgt1978 wrote: »

There are a lot more issues here in Ireland than just the Licensing. At present a "Private" Individual could not do any Uber work under their motor Insurance Policy. Insurance rates are at an all time high here right now and will probably take years to settle down to a more affordable level. That would be a huge issue.
There are (apparently) more licenced Taxis in dublin today than there are in Central New York. there is very little chance of the Government interfering with that situation.
The law also states that you need to have a "PSV Drivers Licence" to carry passengers for hire or reward. Either that stipulation would have to be removed or else anybody wishing to join as an Uber Driver would have to sit the Test.

Finally, Public opinion in Ireland is rarely a Government consideration, unless it benefits them in a large capacity.

Some very good points there, though the insurance one is a potentially very good point, though to be honest having worked in that industry, it's one of the things I most look forward to in automated cars. If ever there were an entire industry that deserved to crash and burn... scummy to the absolute core in almost every conceivable way. Drug dealers make a more honest living.

We are a small market, which would likely mean Uber wouldn't put as much emphasis as getting access to us as with the likes of the UK, etc. Though I do reckon public opinion would sway it, if we wind up one of the only countries in the world without it.

Billy86

riclad wrote: »

Is there not apps like hailo ,in the irish market right now .We probably have enough Taxi drivers here already,
uber provided new competition in the us by allowing new drivers to enter the market ,and by provided an advanced easy to use app for
finding drivers and making it easy to pay your fare using your phone.
i don,t see a big market her for uber to get into .

The presence of Hailo would hold it off for a bit, but I'd actually say the market for people who would prefer to pay 20% less per taxi ride is reasonably large, myself.

I also wonder if it might be good strategy from Uber to buy out Hailo?

iamtony

Billy86 wrote: »

The presence of Hailo would hold it off for a bit, but I'd actually say the market for people who would prefer to pay 20% less per taxi ride is reasonably large, myself.

I also wonder if it might be good strategy from Uber to buy out Hailo?

Hailo have recently merged with myTaxi(and will rebrand as MyTaxi)to become the biggest Taxi app in Europe. So I'd say it would cost quite a bit to buy them out now. I think myTaxi is financed by a big car manufacturer so I don't think they would be willing to let it go that easy.

Billy86

iamtony wrote: »

Hailo have recently merged with myTaxi(and will rebrand as MyTaxi)to become the biggest Taxi app in Europe. So I'd say it would cost quite a bit to buy them out now. I think myTaxi is financed by a big car manufacturer so I don't think they would be willing to let it go that easy.

That os interesting. Any idea on the total value or clout? Just curious since I looked up Uber who are valued at $50bn, and have Google on board. Can't speak for all of North America of course, but they are absolutely huge in and around Toronto (similar population to Ireland without the north).

wakka12

El Hombre wrote: »

A few things here

1. With human drivers gone, how is the income tax and other government levies to be made back on a driverless car, bus or lorry? Will Uber, Google and the likes be expected to pay massive taxes? Vat on customer charges and normal taxes by a company won't cut it

If so where do you think they'll make back the extra money?

2. This whole "oh any job lost will have new jobs in building and engineer jobs to maintain the cars replace them"

Well most of the bloody things will be built on an autonomous assembly lines even more than cars and that are now and for example do you really think say 30,000 drivers let go will result in anywhere near that number of maintenance jobs? Maybe a couple thousand if you are lucky.

3. How will we cope with the welfare bill down the line? It's easy say oh let them retrain, but as what? The amount of occupations looking to use autonomous tech means their will be severely reduced options

4. Lads saying reduce or cut welfare entirely then if their are too many people on it as a result, eh do you think they'll be happy sit on the side of the road wasting away like a portrait of a famine victim? I think lads will get a sharp shock when they are being broken into and mugged due to people trying to survive.

Frankly, a first step into an era of automation such as driveeless taxis and lorries might be handled.

But I think down the road from that where we may be looking at 60-75% of human labor opportunities gone due to increasing numbers of job loss to automatic tech society is gonna have a problem we wont even be able to begin to handle.

I always hear that excuse, that the many jobs lost in certain sectors will all be replaced in robotics engineering or whatever. But realistically they wont, robots are going to leave a huge percentage of people in a vast number of sectors unemployed with very little other job opportunities. Robots arent going to improve the world, I hope we don't put money before human jobs and keep people employed for the betterment of humanity. But inevitably this will occur. but its just scary, practically every job can be done by a robot, and better. So often theres no argument for why they wouldnt replace us..

El Hombre

wakka12 wrote: »

I always hear that excuse, that the many jobs lost in certain sectors will all be replaced in robotics engineering or whatever. But realistically they wont, robots are going to leave a huge percentage of people in a vast number of sectors unemployed with very little other job opportunities. Robots arent going to improve the world, I hope we don't put money before human jobs and keep people employed for the betterment of humanity. But inevitably this will occur. but its just scary, practically every job can be done by a robot, and better. So often theres no argument for why they wouldnt replace us..

Agreed.

However something I was musing on did give me a laugh if large scale unemployment happens as robots replace jobs who will have the money to buy all the goods and services they are churning out :pac: It could very well be companies bring in robots only to see sales bottom and they are left crippled which is actually the inevitable fate I think should it happen.

Donald Trump

The Backwards Man wrote: »

There's one chink in that utopian chain that will never be seamless.

People.

Ah heeeooooor, leave it bleeeeedin ouh

Chuchote

In France, there's a carpooling thing called Bla Bla Car (https://www.blablacar.fr), a system where you can arrange to share lifts and petrol price. Works really well and is highly popular, and means that most cars are full on city-to-city journeys. I'm sure it would be possible to set up the same kind of thing here – think of the difference to a journey out to the airport from most parts of Dublin!