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TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

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Kilough

For ever odd wrote: »

Do Currency fair operate on a fixed daily rate or do they quote prices relative to intra-day fluctuations?

It's prices fluctuate through the day. They charge 3 per transaction and offer better rates than the banks so generally works out better.

For ever odd

All positions now closed. Had a good run all year so not going to be greedy and force things.

Bad feeling and not seeing the markets clearly at the moment (blindsided), been the main reasons.

I will be trading shorter timeframes on a technical bias, as it suits me better at this time of year.

Back to the Tight stops till October.

For ever odd

FTSE 100

For ever odd wrote: »

Broke to the downside today, 7 trading days it tried to and failed to close above 6960. Divergence on the rsi macd and stoch on the daily chart(and on a few other indices).

Post from March last year.

I think this 6960 will be a key level in the FTSE 100 and will sell at this level if it gets there today, with a 20 point stop.

I am also going take my Q of off this level for other European indicies.

BrokenArrows

dont you love those days when you login to your portfolio and everything is green for the day

drunkmonkey

What's the correlation between ETF's and Share price, for example all the indicatiors say buy Oil but sell the USO fund.
Should they not be going the same direction?

ixus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What's the correlation between ETF's and Share price, for example all the indicatiors say buy Oil but sell the USO fund.
Should they not be going the same direction?

Research oil etf's and contango/backwardation. Commodity etf's are impacted by Rolls (rolling contracts on a monthly/quarterly basis).

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/think-twice-before-buying-a-top-oil-etf-cm433169

For ever odd

Deutche Bank short order at 12.25 stop 12.45. Feeler trade, so if does break to the downside I will add to it.

100+ points target (11.25 or less), I will give it 4 days. which ever comes first.

For ever odd

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10W0MJ

Germany to tell people to stockpile food and water in case of attacks: FAS

X
(Reuters) - For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government plans to tell citizens to stockpile food and water in case of an attack or catastrophe, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday.

Germany is currently on high alert after two Islamist attacks and a shooting rampage by a mentally unstable teenager last month. Berlin announced measures earlier this month to spend considerably more on its police and security forces and to create a special unit to counter cyber crime and terrorism.

"The population will be obliged to hold an individual supply of food for ten days," the newspaper quoted the government's "Concept for Civil Defence" - which has been prepared by the Interior Ministry - as saying.

Strange report.

If this report is true, I'd expect people to hoard cash along with their food, leading to more robberies and more social unrest.
This stockpiling could spark the very thing it was set up for.

ixus

I saw this earlier and asked myself, what would cause people to shelter in place according to that description? Nuclear/dirty bomb, biohazard, contagion or guerrilla warfare? It is very odd if true.

dasdog

The noise in the amateur thread chomp was talking about is small article distraction. OH is from Frankfurt and she's totally oblivious to any sort of hoarding. Seems to be a common group think EUR will bounce up to 1.140/5 and everyone will short the retreat, resistance levels are just short of 1.14.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Deutche Bank short order at 12.25 stop 12.45. Feeler trade, so if does break to the downside I will add to it.

100+ points target (11.25 or less), I will give it 4 days. which ever comes first.

It didn't work out, stop hit this morning. Added second trade and took a little profit to cover stop.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Traders will be watching ADP tomorrow for the run up to NFP on Friday, a big number after Fishers hawkish comments at the weekend will see September rate hike speculation.
Sandwiched in-between is important euro data and ecb meeting, oil inventories tomorrow also.

Post from 01-09-15

Could nearly work off the same, one year later.

gctest50

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has removed the clinical hold on the Phase II clinical trial of JCAR015 by Juno Therapeutics Inc.

( JUNO )

https://www.junotherapeutics.com/our-science/car-technology/

For ever odd

COPPER.

Confined to wedge pattern on weekly chart since September last year, it is approaching the lower boundary, with not much room left to move either way.

Possible breakout on the cards, which other asset classes tend to follow.

nuac

Things will liven up next week as holidays end.

Question is which way they will jump.

Feeling bearish here

For ever odd

EU data just out was roughly in line with expectations(small miss), so I think Draghi has no need to do anything. He will probably be hoping the Fed will do the heavy lifting for him (on the back of a strong NFP) .
A weak NFP on Friday would possibly see ECB jawboning in the lead up to the meeting.

ADP at 1:15 and EIA at 3:30 (GMT)

ixus

Indications are nothing next week, however, I think they should go for the surprise bazooka. (I think it all fails anyway). Reason being, going now and not December. Recall last years reaction to an actually big move by them? It also leaves only 3/4 months until the projected end of QE Mar 17. Longer it is left, the greater expectations are.

To go next week, and have FED raise at the end of Sept or in Dec would give the euro that extra move lower.

For ever odd

True, but he could just dangle the carrot of an extension, which would be enough for now. He probably will go down that route anyway but time gives him more options.

ixus

Yes. And that's exactly what happened last time. The market got so ahead of itself the week before that we sold off from the Monday and got smashed when he announced the package.

Vivid memories of the price action.

I'll be more than happy to trade a repeat of it.

For ever odd

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-04/draghi-nears-his-qe3-as-ecb-seen-relying-on-ever-more-stimulus

Good article on what to expect on Thursday's ECB meeting.

Merkels CDU party took a hiding in the local elections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/mecklenburg-vorpommern-german-anti-immigrant-party-strong-regional-election-exit-polls-merkel

For ever odd

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-04/oklahoma-quake-matches-record-even-as-fracking-waste-restricted

Add this to the evacuation of gulf of Mexico rigs due to weather, it could see a short term rally after CL bounced off a long term support/ resistance on Friday morning.

For ever odd

Spike this morning in oil had nothing to do with the above analysis. Saudi oil minster signaled he is giving a major talk at 9:30 GMT.

For ever odd

"Diligence is the mother of good luck". ~ Benjamin Franklin

I will take it anyway it comes.

dasdog

Good implementation FAO got out at the right time too. ECB being fairly neutral on Thursday sent a semi believable done message. Carry Trade the first to run, a signal maybe. Sets up an interesting Sept 20/21, I can't see the BoJ doing anything substantial.

For ever odd

Cheers dasdog.

Just a quick observation - if you look at what has been happening in the markets over the last two months (longer actually, but that's fresh in the memory for example purposes), one can't help but notice that every week there is something that the media is building up to be the most important thing of the year. Never a good sign in my opinion, and it effectively means that it has been hard to hold a long term view or position until the manic bull/bears decided which one they are.

If your synopsis above is true, (one I have been thinking about all year), and this is the outcome of the G20 meeting, it would lead me to believe that with all anti-globalisation political theme that has griped worldwide, politicians might actually have no choice but to listen to the people. Tax cuts (already been flaunted) and big spend infrastructure been (the normal bribe the public) way out of it.

On that, it would positive for commodities ( Base metals and oil), but alas that is next year's trade. I will have to fiddle the thumbs while waiting for it to happen. The Eurostoxx 50 trade idea should keep me occupied till then.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

Delighted for ya.

ftse100

For ever odd wrote: »

Delighted for ya.

This was a great trade. Great research, Well Done.

BrokenArrows

For ever odd wrote: »

Delighted for ya.

Dont know if he held onto them.
He has another post saying he sold most of his holding in april.

BrokenArrows

Is there any reliable website which keeps track of upcoming OPEC events and scheduled announcements?

chompdown

You were saying earlier that you should stay away from trading oil so maybe best to avoid?