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Zzippy

New thread here

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The Swiss people voted in 2014 to limit immigration from the EU. I think you should probably have a look at that and the fallout from it rather than listing the treaties that predated it.

The treaties that predates it are the only existing legal frameworks we have to go on. The Swiss may have voted to curtail EU immigration but they have yet to implement laws to do so. That isn't due to happen until next year. And based on the existing treaties it's contrary to their agreements with the EU. AFAIK there has been no deal done to date that will continue to allow them free access to the EU market while also allowing them limit immigration.

irishbucsfan

bilston wrote: »

So after just 24 hours the Leave campaign have already rowed back on their pledges to the NHS and on immigration...I'd love to say I'm shocked but their claims were always fanciful, unfortunately a lot of people fell for it.

What is actually happening is that there has been a referendum where one side, Leave, was particularly disorganised and had offshoots led by particularly mad demagogues and there were multiple groups of people making different arguments for leaving and promises about what would happen, independent of each other. Then in the days afterwards the Press have decided that they should all be responsible for everything they all said, even if they didn't say it.

Nigel Farage gets asked about Gove/Johnson's promises on the NHS and says correctly that he never made that promise and a bunch of people who obviously weren't paying much attention make it into a news story. Then the same thing happens where Hannan is getting asked to deal with the particularly poinsonous arm of the campaign that was led by Farage and his millionaire mate.

People should stop wasting their time with that childishness and maybe the press will spend their time engaging on what happens next. Or at least ask the people to deal with their own promises. Ask Farage how on earth he's going to do anything about immigration, and ask Hannan about the new relationship and it's implications on sovereignty, the budget (NHS) and trade.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/en/home/themen/fza_schweiz-eu-efta.html

https://www.ch.ch/en/working-switzerland-eu-efta/

Switzerland do have to accept Free Movement of people. It's basically the first condition of Single Market Entry.

I agree that it's reasonable that the UK will get a similar deal. Which will of course involve continuation of 3 of the main 'Leave' issues.
Freedom of Movement of People

Acceptance of EU Regulations and Laws (with even less of a say in them!)

Large contributions to the EU budget

Worth watching Newsnight last night to see the 'Leave' campaigner (Daniel Hannan) rowing back on the immigration issue. "We never said that we could stop immigration outside of the EU, just that it was a problem within the EU".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5jTRoySFfo

approx 1 min in

The Swiss people voted in 2014 to limit immigration from the EU. I think you should probably have a look at that and the fallout from it rather than listing the treaties that predated it.

Where did Dan Hannan say anything like that? You've attributed an entirely false quote to him, he's rowed back on nothing. Dan Hannan is by far the most reasonable and educated (on this issue) voice on the Leave side.

bilston

So after just 24 hours the Leave campaign have already rowed back on their pledges to the NHS and on immigration...I'd love to say I'm shocked but their claims were always fanciful, unfortunately a lot of people fell for it.

errlloyd

I think Norway have a better model than Switzerland for the record.

[Deleted User]

Felix Jones is God wrote: »

Wondering what chance of a "Lisbon treaty" Re-referendum in 12 months if things go tits up as expected

Only way I could see if happening is if the Government folds (which is very possible) and a general election triggers, Labour might run on a return to Europe platform and if elected would hold a second referendum.

Realistically though if the Government collapsed tomorrow you would have to think UKIP would be the big winner and the UK would be in very serious trouble then.

Felix Jones is God

Wondering what chance of a "Lisbon treaty" Re-referendum in 12 months if things go tits up as expected

[Deleted User]

kuang1 wrote: »

I think we should expect to see truckloads more of exactly that!

I'd imagine so. Still can't get my head around it. Really a perfect storm of political and social circumstances that led to 17 million people voting against their self interest.

Interestingly I've noticed on a number of publications and social media this morning a bit of a reality check for the leave camp as people now start to question what they were promised. The Farage interview did a lot of damage.

kuang1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Worth watching Newsnight last night to see the 'Leave' campaigner rowing back on the immigration issue. "We never said that we could stop immigration outside of the EU, just that it was a problem within the EU".

I think we should expect to see truckloads more of exactly that!

[Deleted User]

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Again, using a real world example. Switzerland is a member of the EEA from outside the EU. They have power to influence EU the law. They don't have to accept the free movement of people (although they lost access to Erasmus over that for a short while). The UK is economically far more important to Europe than any other non-EU neighbour, it's perfectly reasonable to expect them to get at least a comparable deal.

We don't know what deal will be reached. That's why I think it was objectively a bad idea to leave, expecially as we don't even know who will be negotiating it. However it's perfectly reasonable (and I think likely) to suggest they could end up better off outside.

https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

Switzerland is neither an EU nor EEA member but is part of the single market - this means Swiss nationals have the same rights to live and work in the UK as other EEA nationals.

https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/en/home/themen/fza_schweiz-eu-efta.html

The right of free movement is complemented by the mutual recognition of professional qualifications, by the right to buy property, and by the coordination of social security systems. The same rules also apply to citizens of EFTA member states.

https://www.ch.ch/en/working-switzerland-eu-efta/

Working in Switzerland as a citizen of an EU/EFTA member state

Citizens from EU-27* states enjoy full freedom of movement. This means that citizens of those countries are free to travel to Switzerland, and to live and work here. Special rules apply to citizens of Croatia, which joined the EU on 1 July 2013.

Switzerland do have to accept Free Movement of people. It's basically the first condition of Single Market Entry.

I agree that it's reasonable that the UK will get a similar deal. Which will of course involve continuation of 3 of the main 'Leave' issues.

Freedom of Movement of People
Acceptance of EU Regulations and Laws (with even less of a say in them!)
Large contributions to the EU budget

Worth watching Newsnight last night to see the 'Leave' campaigner (Daniel Hannan) rowing back on the immigration issue. "We never said that we could stop immigration outside of the EU, just that it was a problem within the EU".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5jTRoySFfo

approx 1 min in

DGRulz

kuang1 wrote: »

Yup.
Available in UK and Channel Islands only.

I think, if you by a now TV box you can buy the SS day passes in eBay.

irishbucsfan

Buer wrote: »

He had no choice but to quit. He had gone to Brussels and negotiated a specific package with the EU for Britain. He had campaigned for it to be implemented. A referendum went to the nation which is probably the most influential decision on British politics in many voters lives. And they flat out rejected it. It was a rejection of the direction that Cameron wanted to take the country as leader.

When the electorate state that they do not want to go in the direction that you want to take the country on such a massive issue, it's a vote of no confidence from his nation not to mention the strong rumours of late that his own party were set to table a vote of no confidence in him. The moment the result was announced he had to go or he'd have been pushed just as quickly.

Were they? They all signed a letter asking him to stay on, including Johnson and Gove.

I don't blame him for going at all though. It's going to be a massively tought job for the next few years. I wouldn't be surprised to see Osbourne follow.

pickarooney

So does someone else have to step up with a spoon and pretend they wanted to eat this **** pudding all along?

Buer

daveup wrote: »

So that's a couple of things. But what is most destabilizing is that David Cameron simply quitting. David you promised the people a vote and then when they don't vote the way you like you simply quit rather than accepting what the people say and working to ensure a bright new future.

He had no choice but to quit. He had gone to Brussels and negotiated a specific package with the EU for Britain. He had campaigned for it to be implemented. A referendum went to the nation which is probably the most influential decision on British politics in many voters lives. And they flat out rejected it. It was a rejection of the direction that Cameron wanted to take the country as leader.

When the electorate state that they do not want to go in the direction that you want to take the country on such a massive issue, it's a vote of no confidence from his nation not to mention the strong rumours of late that his own party were set to table a vote of no confidence in him. The moment the result was announced he had to go or he'd have been pushed just as quickly.

kuang1

Felix Jones is God wrote: »

I actually think you're correct, if that's the tv now package it's not available in Ireland

Yup.
Available in UK and Channel Islands only.

Felix Jones is God

Stheno wrote: »

Whoops sorry for my uninformed post

I actually think you're correct, if that's the tv now package it's not available in Ireland

irishbucsfan

molloyjh wrote: »

They'll have to adhere to a lot of EU legislation without any power to influence it. Any products they sell to EU countries will need to conform to EU law. If the want free trade they'll simply have to accept the free movement of people which apparently is the single biggest issue people have. So will that mean no free trade, meaning tariffs and legislation they have no input into?

The big problem with the Leave vote is that absolutely nobody knows what it will actually mean. Nobody. And how can you make an informed decision about that!?

Again, using a real world example. Switzerland is a member of the EEA from outside the EU. They have power to influence EU the law. They don't have to accept the free movement of people (although they lost access to Erasmus over that for a short while). The UK is economically far more important to Europe than any other non-EU neighbour, it's perfectly reasonable to expect them to get at least a comparable deal.

We don't know what deal will be reached. That's why I think it was objectively a bad idea to leave, expecially as we don't even know who will be negotiating it. However it's perfectly reasonable (and I think likely) to suggest they could end up better off outside.

Stheno

wp_rathead wrote: »

here
http://www.skysports.ie/watch/get-sky

Whoops sorry for my uninformed post

daveup

molloyjh wrote: »

They'll have to adhere to a lot of EU legislation without any power to influence it. Any products they sell to EU countries will need to conform to EU law. If the want free trade they'll simply have to accept the free movement of people which apparently is the single biggest issue people have. So will that mean no free trade, meaning tariffs and legislation they have no input into?

The big problem with the Leave vote is that absolutely nobody knows what it will actually mean. Nobody. And how can you make an informed decision about that!?

Trade is commerce and commerce is money and money is always about competitiveness.

The biggest problems for the EU is nothing related to this. The biggest issues is how the EU in the past (yesterday) simply sliced up a european cake. Now the UK is saying I don't want to share my piece of cake. And we are talking on who own fishing rights, we are talking about restrictions on beef produce or any other produce. Europe is a controlled environment. You can now plant sugar cane where you couldn't in the past. The rules are out the window.

What is in the window is being competitive. If you are competitive you win. So instead of living on european grants to contain produce you can in fact sell to the third world who are in fact starving while these idiots in brussels continue their next stages of centralization.

molloyjh

daveup wrote: »

I think you listen to politicians more often than you should. And maybe exposed to nigel farage too often. Two points. Cameron set this vote as a part of his mandate for government. It initially was never about immigration. It was always about control of your own country. They, being politicians, forgot the point. So it turned to stupidity.

Remember back to our friend kenny who went all out on lisbon. He proved a point. The electorate when asked to decide resent being told how to the decide by the person who asked them for their opinion. Its a human thing.

???????

errlloyd

daveup wrote: »

I think you listen to politicians more often than you should. And maybe exposed to nigel farage too often. Two points. Cameron set this vote as a part of his mandate for government. It initially was never about immigration. It was always about control of your own country. They, being politicians, forgot the point. So it turned to stupidity.

Remember back to our friend kenny who went all out on lisbon. He proved a point. The electorate when asked to decide resent being told how to the decide by the person who asked them for their opinion. Its a human thing.

Sure there is an element of just anti establishment when an electorate rejects a referendum. Obviously in Irelands case it had nothing to do with Kenny, as Fine Gael were in opposition when we voted on Lisbon, it was Cowen the electorate rebelled against.

I'm also sure some voters were influenced by a frustration with EU law makers, but a small minority tbh. There is an inherent contradiction when you say that voters are rebelling against their own government, and complaining their own government doesnt have enough power!

Regardless of why the referendum was called, the stats and rhetoric indicate that Islamophobia and xenophobia played a massive role. This is based of me reading of the British Indo, Guardian, Economist and FT. If you're suggesting that no one was motivated to vote "leave" based on immigration you're simply wrong.

molloyjh

errlloyd wrote: »

In reality you are correct. The UK could choose to remain in the common market and still enjoy many of the perks they currently do without having to pay. However to remain in the common market they would also have to accept the free movement of labour, therefore not actually ending their immigration annoyances, and I believe they would also still be subject to some EU legislation without getting a vote.

They'll have to adhere to a lot of EU legislation without any power to influence it. Any products they sell to EU countries will need to conform to EU law. If the want free trade they'll simply have to accept the free movement of people which apparently is the single biggest issue people have. So will that mean no free trade, meaning tariffs and legislation they have no input into?

The big problem with the Leave vote is that absolutely nobody knows what it will actually mean. Nobody. And how can you make an informed decision about that!?

daveup

I think you listen to politicians more often than you should. And maybe exposed to nigel farage too often. Two points. Cameron set this vote as a part of his mandate for government. It initially was never about immigration. It was always about control of your own country. They, being politicians, forgot the point. So it turned to stupidity.

Remember back to our friend kenny who went all out on lisbon. He proved a point. The electorate when asked to decide resent being told how to the decide by the person who asked them for their opinion. Its a human thing.

errlloyd

daveup wrote: »

Utter babble.

Haha, alright mate. The polling data indicates immigration was a key issue. And for the most part it was the scary brown type of immigrants who are coming from middle eastern war zones.

But if you have a different theory I'm all ears.

daveup

errlloyd wrote: »

I The voters voted for no immigration and protection of UK exports.
Part of this is a huge victory for extremism - the fear of refugees was influential in the vote. .

Utter babble.

wp_rathead

TeoReid wrote: »

Brief change of topic if I may, is it possible to get a day pass for sky sports in Ireland?

here
http://www.skysports.ie/watch/get-sky

errlloyd

swiwi_ wrote: »

How does being part of the EU or not affect this?

I probably should have paid more attention (just don't care enough I suppose), but I'd be interested to know compelling reasons why Britain should definitely have remained in the EU.

In reality you are correct. The UK could choose to remain in the common market and still enjoy many of the perks they currently do without having to pay. However to remain in the common market they would also have to accept the free movement of labour, therefore not actually ending their immigration annoyances, and I believe they would also still be subject to some EU legislation without getting a vote.

However, the voters didn't vote for that. The voters voted for no immigration and protection of UK exports. That means tariffs being introduced limiting the ease of trade, and also immigration laws being introduced limiting who a company can hire. Airbus' primary concern with their manufacturing is that they have an EU borderless office which allows their experts to move freely, and it will be a pain in the ass for them. The CEO of Airbus was on BBC today saying he thought there was a strong chance manufacturing would begin to move out of Wales in the next few years (this was after the result, not an empty threat before the result).

There are also a number of weird tax loopholes that make EU memebership important for banking. The reason companies like Morgan Stanley are rumoured to be moving their HQ to Ireland or Germany is so they can remain EU tax resident, which allows them to funnel their tax through the Netherlands in that way we were supposed to make illegal a long time ago (I think).

Generally I know the UK is a net contributor to the EU. Like Switzerland and Norway I know it will be just fine on it's own. I guess it is just a shame that Britain (who were doing a genuinely good job lifting this part of the world with them) left.

Part of this is a huge victory for extremism - the fear of refugees was influential in the vote.

I also think morally it is hugely challenging for England. They put on a strong show of "better together" 2 years ago in Scotland, and now two years on they want out and Scotland wants in. I can see Scotland leaving, and becoming a very poor country - but a country I imagine the EU would welcome with open arms and help to it's feet (as it did with Ireland).

Anyway, it's a disappointing day. Our nation is merely a rock in the North Atlantic. Our significance is drawn from the bloc of friendly nations around us. One of them walked away today.

Stheno

TeoReid wrote: »

Brief change of topic if I may, is it possible to get a day pass for sky sports in Ireland?

No a month is the least you can sign up for

daveup

So many puzzling lines coming out of Brexit.. The issue of trade agreements. So potentially the EU can now impose duties on British products exported into Europe and Britian can impose duties on products imported into Britain. So that cancels out and trade will continue as normal.
The value of the pound dropping. That's just gamblers putting their money into gold and commodities for a time before getting involved in the currency market again so the pound will gradually return to a norm over the next weeks/months.
So that's a couple of things. But what is most destabilizing is that David Cameron simply quitting. David you promised the people a vote and then when they don't vote the way you like you simply quit rather than accepting what the people say and working to ensure a bright new future.
As for the Scots well I am totally at a loss. Nicola Sturgeon is an embarrassment. Yes the Scots voted Remain but for her to come out and say that another Scottish independence referendum is a probability is just adding fuel to the fire of pure instability. Surely you sit quiet and see how things pan out.
And then Jeremy Corbyn says nothing about anything and Boris and Nigel are best ignoring. Their argument over immigration is utter rubbish. Every country needs immigration. The whole point of this referendum, as I saw it, was closer integration with EU (as year in and year out controls are moved to Brussels) or a return to a sovereign state where you can set your own taxes and control your own assets.
Its a very divisive argument. And I suppose that in itself is no help. Everybody will have their opinion. The point is that the decision is made now and there is no point in these 'politicians' crying about it. Get on with it rather than quitting. What are you like David.