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RuggieBear

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English Lurker

Swan Curry wrote: »

Can't wait to see labour replace corbyn with one of the interchangeable blairites and then wonder why they keep losing elections

Ach now, please look at the realities of the situation. Any replacement for Corbyn would go through the currently heavily pro-Corbyn Labour selectorate. There would not be a Blairite, not there's many left around for whom that label is accurate.

In any case, there should be a middle way available for the Labour party. There is considerable ground left untouched between those still repeating philosophies of the past while showing no particular political competence, and those still repeating philosophies of the even further past while showing no particular political competence.

Robbo

Zzippy wrote: »

Scaremongering worked in the Scottish independence referendum. They claimed an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed EU membership. Look how that worked out. SNP will win independence with a large majority if they run a new one soon.

It wouldn't be guaranteed membership. The Treaties are quite clear on this (Articles 48 & 49 TEU in particular). Most of the legal analysis at the time (example) couldn't see a way around the proper process and Scotland joining the queue, meeting the convergence criteria, unanimous approval and all the other ingredients that Elbonia or whoever wants to join has to meet.

What Salmond was banking on was the realpolitik of the situation forcing the EU's hand, thinking he was dealing with a more provincial issue such as his bailiwick is. He was also as clear as mud on the currency issue, knowing that adopting the Euro is mandatory for new Member States.

By the way, I'm entirely in favour of the Scotchlanders breaking the Union and joining the EU. I just want them to go about it in the proper way and with Eurozone membership, not with some Sterling-pegged Groat with a picture of the Krankies on it.

molloyjh

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

The faceless bureaucrats were an easy way of escaping any responsibility. I wonder who will be the new scapegoat when things don't improve.

This. It isn't about scaring people and I don't think it ever has been. It's about giving people a target so that they can blame their woes on someone else.

We see it in the US with Trump. He's not successful because he is scaring people, he's successful because he is channelling peoples frustrations. The likes of the AAA here aren't gaining support and attention because they are scaring people. They are appealing to people. They are appealing to them by giving their frustrations credence and a clear focus. That's what the political classes in general are failing to get.

People don't want complex, well thought out and rational responses to complex and difficult issues. They want something simple and easy to digest. They don't want to be scared, they want their frustrations to be vindicated and heard. The Leave campaign gave people something to latch onto. That's why it won.

thomond2006

WWN's Brexit coverage:

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/thousands-of-british-refugees-make-dangerous-journey-across-the-irish-sea/
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/****in-gob****es/

[Deleted User]

Robbo wrote: »

It wouldn't be guaranteed membership. The Treaties are quite clear on this (Articles 48 & 49 TEU in particular). Most of the legal analysis at the time (example) couldn't see a way around the proper process and Scotland joining the queue, meeting the convergence criteria, unanimous approval and all the other ingredients that Elbonia or whoever wants to join has to meet.

What Salmond was banking on was the realpolitik of the situation forcing the EU's hand, thinking he was dealing with a more provincial issue such as his bailiwick is. He was also as clear as mud on the currency issue, knowing that adopting the Euro is mandatory for new Member States.

By the way, I'm entirely in favour of the Scotchlanders breaking the Union and joining the EU. I just want them to go about it in the proper way and with Eurozone membership, not with some Sterling-pegged Groat with a picture of the Krankies on it.

Sturgeon has already said that they are going to assess the situation and how EU entry would look before pushing for a referendum, but with over 60% of the vote wanting to remain in Europe and the SNP making significant gains in the recent election it's effectively a fait accompli.

I also think that England would have likely been the biggest blocker of an independent Scotland joining the EU and they no longer have a say.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

Sturgeon has already said that they are going to assess the situation and how EU entry would look before pushing for a referendum, but with over 60% of the vote wanting to remain in Europe and the SNP making significant gains in the recent election it's effectively a fait accompli.

I also think that England would have likely been the biggest blocker of an independent Scotland joining the EU and they no longer have a say.

There's no fait accompli.

Scaremongering will be particularly easy if a Scottish referendum runs parallel to Dutch, Italian, Danish referenda on their future in the EU all of which seem to be possibilities.

It'll be great though for the Scots to get another chance at it.

[Deleted User]

irishbucsfan wrote: »

There's no fait accompli.

Scaremongering will be particularly easy if a Scottish referendum runs parallel to Dutch, Italian, Danish referenda on their future in the EU all of which seem to be possibilities.

It'll be great though for the Scots to get another chance at it.

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

Let's see.

I reckon we'll see a referendum called in at least one European country very soon. The Dutch seem most likely.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

FTSE has rallied massively at this stage. Trading at 6,185 at the moment. (was as low as 5,850)

GBPUSD @ 1.377
EURGBP @ 0.80

Immediate issues are speedbumps. The economy is like an oil tanker, you can't just turn left and be facing left. The impact of 'Brexit' will take many months to get through.

Podge_irl

molloyjh wrote: »

The likes of the AAA here aren't gaining support and attention because they are scaring people. They are appealing to people. They are appealing to them by giving their frustrations credence and a clear focus. That's what the political classes in general are failing to get.

I'm sorry but that's giving them far too much credit. Trump, brexiters and the AAA aren't giving anything a clear focus. They're giving the people a completely fabricated enemy to focus on who they claim has caused all their frustrations. When Britain is out of Europe and Trump has started his hate war someone will turn them on someone else. It's depressing.

There is a failure amongst "the political class" to understand a lot of the people's concerns and defuse them. That I acknowledge. But it's hard to bring a reasoned argument to a **** fight

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

FTSE has rallied massively at this stage. Trading at 6,185 at the moment. (was as low as 5,850)

GBPUSD @ 1.377
EURGBP @ 0.80

Immediate issues are speedbumps. The economy is like an oil tanker, you can't just turn left and be facing left. The impact of 'Brexit' will take many months to get through.

Rallying massively is easier when you have almost an historically precipitous fall.

The impact will take months but there will be a huge increase in volatility in the interim and the ultimate outcome is still more likely than not to be poor (so far as these things are predictable).

I agree the immediate impact is not instructive as basically no one had a clue what was going on. Things will obviously settle now but the new normal is still worse than yesterday.

Zzippy

Robbo wrote: »

It wouldn't be guaranteed membership. The Treaties are quite clear on this (Articles 48 & 49 TEU in particular). Most of the legal analysis at the time (example) couldn't see a way around the proper process and Scotland joining the queue, meeting the convergence criteria, unanimous approval and all the other ingredients that Elbonia or whoever wants to join has to meet.

What Salmond was banking on was the realpolitik of the situation forcing the EU's hand, thinking he was dealing with a more provincial issue such as his bailiwick is. He was also as clear as mud on the currency issue, knowing that adopting the Euro is mandatory for new Member States.

By the way, I'm entirely in favour of the Scotchlanders breaking the Union and joining the EU. I just want them to go about it in the proper way and with Eurozone membership, not with some Sterling-pegged Groat with a picture of the Krankies on it.

You're right. It was used as a carrot though, in the Scots referendum - the only way to guarantee EU membership is to stay in the UK. I'm sure a lot of people bore that in mind when voting to stay in - the same people who voted Remain yesterday, and look where it got them, they're out anyway.

Synode

Deleted User wrote: »

Immediate issues are speedbumps. The economy is like an oil tanker, you can't just turn left and be facing left. The impact of 'Brexit' will take many months to get through.

Fully agree but I don't know of anyone who thinks Brexit will be good for the UK economy. PWC estimate they'll lose approx 70,000 - 100,000 jobs in the financial sector alone. I really can't believe the people have voted for this. I wonder what they'll think when it starts to hit their pockets

[Deleted User]

Podge_irl wrote: »

Rallying massively is easier when you have almost an historically precipitous fall.

The impact will take months but there will be a huge increase in volatility in the interim and the ultimate outcome is still more likely than not to be poor (so far as these things are predictable).

I agree the immediate impact is not instructive as basically no one had a clue what was going on. Things will obviously settle now but the new normal is still worse than yesterday.

yup. Just contradicting that what's happening now is the economy tanking. What's happening now is a market 'correction' as nobody believed that UK would actually do it, and as we got closer to the referendum people believed it less and less and so markets were more bullish about it not happening.

Then last night/this morning there was a "oh ****, what have they done, what do we do?" spooking that has set all the markets in a scurry.

Today's market shock was precipitated on the market yesterday believing Brexit was a non-runner. Had markets been less sure of (Not)Brexit, then there'd have been less of a fall to recover from.

We are now living in a time where that paradigm is a goner, and now we've to see how the consequences roll. It will take many months for the effects of Brexit actually to start showing {companies leaving, new companies not starting, labour market changes etc}. I agree wholeheartedly that the UK has steered itself onto a lesser growth path than it would have been on had it not pulled the cord.

[Deleted User]

Synode wrote: »

Fully agree but I don't know of anyone who thinks Brexit will be good for the UK economy. PWC estimate they'll lose approx 70,000 - 100,000 jobs in the financial sector alone. I really can't believe the people have voted for this. I wonder what they'll think when it starts to hit their pockets

I don't think it is either, just correcting the "economy is tanking" above!

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm sorry but that's giving them far too much credit. Trump, brexiters and the AAA aren't giving anything a clear focus. They're giving the people a completely fabricated enemy to focus on who they claim has caused all their frustrations. When Britain is out of Europe and Trump has started his hate war someone will turn them on someone else. It's depressing.

There is a failure amongst "the political class" to understand a lot of the people's concerns and defuse them. That I acknowledge. But it's hard to bring a reasoned argument to a **** fight

When I said a clear focus I didn't actually mean a valid one. A clear focus is just a thing for people to get behind or a place for them to aim their frustrations at. It's an outlet. It doesn't have to be the right one, or even a remotely sensible one.

irishbucsfan

Will noone spare a thought for poor gibraltar?

BBDBB

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Will noone spare a thought for poor gibraltar?

I don't think they made the Euros did they?

Neil3030

So I was thinking about how to restructure the Pro 12 after Brexit.

First we need Scotland to leave the UK and join the EU as a sovereign stage.

We then kick Welsh teams out of the Pro 12 because Wales.

We let a de facto Georgia team in to do a Jaguares job on it. Let's call them the Mamukas.

Tell the Italians to cop themselves with these two teams that nobody likes and also do a Jaguares, maybe call themselves the Azzuri or something.

League of

Leinster
Munster
Connacht
Ulster
Mamukas
Azzuri
Edinburgh
Glasgow

Change the league name to the Crazy 8.

[Deleted User]

thomond2006 wrote: »

WWN's Brexit coverage:

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/thousands-of-british-refugees-make-dangerous-journey-across-the-irish-sea/
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/****in-gob****es/

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/brexit-how-this-will-effect-your-upcoming-abortion/

daveup

Neil3030 wrote: »

So I was thinking about how to restructure the Pro 12 after Brexit.

First we need Scotland to leave the UK and join the EU as a sovereign stage.

We then kick Welsh teams out of the Pro 12 because Wales.

We let a de facto Georgia team in to do a Jaguares job on it. Let's call them the Mamukas.

Tell the Italians to cop themselves with these two teams that nobody likes and also do a Jaguares, maybe call themselves the Azzuri or something.

League of

Leinster
Munster
Connacht
Ulster
Mamukas
Azzuri
Edinburgh
Glasgow

Change the league name to the Crazy 8.

what you say may not be as bizarre as you think. The four provinces came into existence because of inability to compete. If we add gerogia, russia, holland, germany, italy to the fold, is it such a bad idea? To have a singular italy team in the pro12 only adds competition and also improves italy''s international potential. so you may not be as far off as you think

Bazzo

I know there are a few other immigrants to Britain knocking around here and I'm just wondering what they're thinking about the sentiment regarding the outcome of this referendum? The major driving influence behind the brexit vote for me seemed to be strongly anti-immigration. I moved over to the UK as a student, have 2 years left to do and after that I was thinking it might be nice to stay around for a while. I'm enjoying my time there(I come back to Ireland to work for the summers), but I can't shake the feeling that it's gonna feel a little more hostile when I go back now, especially because I'm based in the north of England. I'll probably wind up my studies on the eve of the actual exit and just head home.

I'm far from anything resembling properly informed on politcal/economic situations to be perfectly honest but I can't see a good outcome for Britain in the short-medium term on this. I think every economist I've been reading in the past couple weeks and today have been in agreement to varying degrees that this doesn't bode well for the UK's economy. Swiwi, I noticed you said earlier that you're on the pro-leave side? Just curious if you've seen or have any contradictory opinions? Isn't the UK's economy much more largely based on EU exports than Switzerlands and wouldn't that play a huge part in the outcome?

Anyway, the very minor silver lining of this for me is that the sterling has become so much weaker against the euro that it's starting to make sense for me to transfer savings across to pay for my studies. A year ago I was struggling to get 70p for my euro, today I moved some money across for close to 83 pence per euro.

irishbucsfan

There's no hostility towards the Irish in Britain (beyond maybe some lasting tension from the troubles in very specific areas), particularly in the North where there's actually often quite a lot of ties to Ireland. There's no reason to feel like there'd be any hostility and there's also no indication that the referendum will affect the right to work for EU people already based in the UK, especially for Irish people who have the CTA. I think there's a lot of bad feeling about the result leading to people to suggest otherwise, but there's no evidence for it.

Bazzo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

There's no hostility towards the Irish in Britain (beyond maybe some lasting tension from the troubles in very specific areas), particularly in the North where there's actually often quite a lot of ties to Ireland. There's no reason to feel like there'd be any hostility and there's also no indication that the referendum will affect the right to work for EU people already based in the UK, especially for Irish people who have the CTA. I think there's a lot of bad feeling about the result leading to people to suggest otherwise, but there's no evidence for it.

Working on too little sleep at the minute and struggling to get thoughts to words properly. I didn't mean that it was going to be or has ever felt like a hostile environment living there, just that I see myself as an immigrant and I don't think I'll ever be able to shake the feeling in my head that there's an anti-immigrant sentiment(whom I count myself among, regardless of ties and familiarity).

I dunno, maybe I'll get back in September and everything will be as you were and it'll fade, it's just a feeling rattling around in my head at the minute.

wp_rathead

Ireland and UK joined EU/ECC same year right?
So the CTA has never existed where one is in the EU and one is not - gonna be messy

irishbucsfan

Bazzo wrote: »

Working on too little sleep at the minute and struggling to get thoughts to words properly. I didn't mean that it was going to be or has ever felt like a hostile environment living there, just that I see myself as an immigrant and I don't think I'll ever be able to shake the feeling in my head that there's an anti-immigrant sentiment(whom I count myself among, regardless of ties and familiarity).

I dunno, maybe I'll get back in September and everything will be as you were and it'll fade, it's just a feeling rattling around in my head at the minute.

Have you sensed an anti-immigrant sentiment amongst the people you've met/dealt with in the UK?

I don't think anything close to a majority of British people are anti-immigrant. Wanting controls on immigration and being anti-immigrant aren't really the same thing.

irishbucsfan

wp_rathead wrote: »

Ireland and UK joined EU/ECC same year right?
So the CTA has never existed where one is in the EU and one is not - gonna be messy

It'll be a very messy couple of years while it's negotiated, but I can't see it being in the interest of either party to impose anything that feels majorly different to the status quo

[Deleted User]

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Have you sensed an anti-immigrant sentiment amongst the people you've met/dealt with in the UK?

I don't think anything close to a majority of British people are anti-immigrant. Wanting controls on immigration and being anti-immigrant aren't really the same thing.

The likelyhood is that any controls they seek to put on immigration will be rejected by the EU should the UK wish to trade with them (similar to Norway).

It's a huge part of the leave vote but one that they now most likely will have less control of if they want to trade with Ireland and the EU.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic, dangerous and needless.

Bazzo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Have you sensed an anti-immigrant sentiment amongst the people you've met/dealt with in the UK?

I don't think anything close to a majority of British people are anti-immigrant. Wanting controls on immigration and being anti-immigrant aren't really the same thing.

I've certainly come across a few, mostly a generation or two removed from me and not exactly people who'd be mixing in my social circles. Had the misfortune of witnessing a UKIP demonstration at one stage.

CatFromHue

Neil3030 wrote: »

Change the league name to the Crazy 8.

I think we should do this right now anyway.

Pro12 is a crap name.