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Off Topic Thread too point uh

RuggieBear

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Podge_irl

molloyjh wrote: »

The likes of the AAA here aren't gaining support and attention because they are scaring people. They are appealing to people. They are appealing to them by giving their frustrations credence and a clear focus. That's what the political classes in general are failing to get.

I'm sorry but that's giving them far too much credit. Trump, brexiters and the AAA aren't giving anything a clear focus. They're giving the people a completely fabricated enemy to focus on who they claim has caused all their frustrations. When Britain is out of Europe and Trump has started his hate war someone will turn them on someone else. It's depressing.

There is a failure amongst "the political class" to understand a lot of the people's concerns and defuse them. That I acknowledge. But it's hard to bring a reasoned argument to a **** fight

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

FTSE has rallied massively at this stage. Trading at 6,185 at the moment. (was as low as 5,850)

GBPUSD @ 1.377
EURGBP @ 0.80

Immediate issues are speedbumps. The economy is like an oil tanker, you can't just turn left and be facing left. The impact of 'Brexit' will take many months to get through.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

Let's see.

I reckon we'll see a referendum called in at least one European country very soon. The Dutch seem most likely.

[Deleted User]

irishbucsfan wrote: »

There's no fait accompli.

Scaremongering will be particularly easy if a Scottish referendum runs parallel to Dutch, Italian, Danish referenda on their future in the EU all of which seem to be possibilities.

It'll be great though for the Scots to get another chance at it.

There is absolutely no way any of those countries will have a referendum until they see how things turn out in the UK. Most other EU countries have come out galvanised saying the EU will be stronger which I hope is the case, it's flawed (as all governments are) but it's been a fantastic vehicle for creating familiarity and cohesion across an (up till recently) troubled continent.

If the UK economy tanks (which so far is exactly what is happening) then any votes in Europe will be defeated.

England were always the mostly likely to leave the EU (even Greece stayed at the worst of times) because it's Government has used nationalism and skepticism as a vote generating tool. The head of the traditional "Euro-skeptic" party when pushed on it was strongly in favour of the EU and lost his job trying to defend it. This is the "save the pound" party of 10 years ago.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

Sturgeon has already said that they are going to assess the situation and how EU entry would look before pushing for a referendum, but with over 60% of the vote wanting to remain in Europe and the SNP making significant gains in the recent election it's effectively a fait accompli.

I also think that England would have likely been the biggest blocker of an independent Scotland joining the EU and they no longer have a say.

There's no fait accompli.

Scaremongering will be particularly easy if a Scottish referendum runs parallel to Dutch, Italian, Danish referenda on their future in the EU all of which seem to be possibilities.

It'll be great though for the Scots to get another chance at it.

[Deleted User]

Robbo wrote: »

It wouldn't be guaranteed membership. The Treaties are quite clear on this (Articles 48 & 49 TEU in particular). Most of the legal analysis at the time (example) couldn't see a way around the proper process and Scotland joining the queue, meeting the convergence criteria, unanimous approval and all the other ingredients that Elbonia or whoever wants to join has to meet.

What Salmond was banking on was the realpolitik of the situation forcing the EU's hand, thinking he was dealing with a more provincial issue such as his bailiwick is. He was also as clear as mud on the currency issue, knowing that adopting the Euro is mandatory for new Member States.

By the way, I'm entirely in favour of the Scotchlanders breaking the Union and joining the EU. I just want them to go about it in the proper way and with Eurozone membership, not with some Sterling-pegged Groat with a picture of the Krankies on it.

Sturgeon has already said that they are going to assess the situation and how EU entry would look before pushing for a referendum, but with over 60% of the vote wanting to remain in Europe and the SNP making significant gains in the recent election it's effectively a fait accompli.

I also think that England would have likely been the biggest blocker of an independent Scotland joining the EU and they no longer have a say.

thomond2006

WWN's Brexit coverage:

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/thousands-of-british-refugees-make-dangerous-journey-across-the-irish-sea/
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/****in-gob****es/

molloyjh

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

The faceless bureaucrats were an easy way of escaping any responsibility. I wonder who will be the new scapegoat when things don't improve.

This. It isn't about scaring people and I don't think it ever has been. It's about giving people a target so that they can blame their woes on someone else.

We see it in the US with Trump. He's not successful because he is scaring people, he's successful because he is channelling peoples frustrations. The likes of the AAA here aren't gaining support and attention because they are scaring people. They are appealing to people. They are appealing to them by giving their frustrations credence and a clear focus. That's what the political classes in general are failing to get.

People don't want complex, well thought out and rational responses to complex and difficult issues. They want something simple and easy to digest. They don't want to be scared, they want their frustrations to be vindicated and heard. The Leave campaign gave people something to latch onto. That's why it won.

Robbo

Zzippy wrote: »

Scaremongering worked in the Scottish independence referendum. They claimed an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed EU membership. Look how that worked out. SNP will win independence with a large majority if they run a new one soon.

It wouldn't be guaranteed membership. The Treaties are quite clear on this (Articles 48 & 49 TEU in particular). Most of the legal analysis at the time (example) couldn't see a way around the proper process and Scotland joining the queue, meeting the convergence criteria, unanimous approval and all the other ingredients that Elbonia or whoever wants to join has to meet.

What Salmond was banking on was the realpolitik of the situation forcing the EU's hand, thinking he was dealing with a more provincial issue such as his bailiwick is. He was also as clear as mud on the currency issue, knowing that adopting the Euro is mandatory for new Member States.

By the way, I'm entirely in favour of the Scotchlanders breaking the Union and joining the EU. I just want them to go about it in the proper way and with Eurozone membership, not with some Sterling-pegged Groat with a picture of the Krankies on it.

English Lurker

Swan Curry wrote: »

Can't wait to see labour replace corbyn with one of the interchangeable blairites and then wonder why they keep losing elections

Ach now, please look at the realities of the situation. Any replacement for Corbyn would go through the currently heavily pro-Corbyn Labour selectorate. There would not be a Blairite, not there's many left around for whom that label is accurate.

In any case, there should be a middle way available for the Labour party. There is considerable ground left untouched between those still repeating philosophies of the past while showing no particular political competence, and those still repeating philosophies of the even further past while showing no particular political competence.

Buer

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe a strong leader will come to the fore, one who enshrines nationalism above all else and who can blame immigrants for all of German.. Britain's woes.

One people, one empire, one leader, innit mate.

kuang1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, it's excellent. Quite different from Breaking Bad but it is very good.

Chuck would be an interesting character for you to pay attention to!

I'm chuckling away here because I already have an image of a certain type of charachter...will check it later today.

Swan Curry

On the plus side, we're now the only native English-speaking country in the EU. I suppose that will be beneficial for some.

errlloyd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Northern Ireland is the one strong variable. I don't think there is any momentum there currently, but if Scotland leave then that could change.

Also interesting was that the votes in Northern Ireland were not made entirely along existing political and religious lines.

Hmm, the percentage of catholics who voted in was very high. So there was at least some block voting in play.

irishbucsfan

Zzippy wrote: »

Scaremongering worked in the Scottish independence referendum. They claimed an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed EU membership. Look how that worked out. SNP will win independence with a large majority if they run a new one soon.

Did it really work? I wouldn't say it did at all, given the SNP now dominate Scottish politics and how close that referendum ended up.

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

The EU has been a convenient scapegoat for every perceived ill in the UK for a very long time. And plenty of pro-EU politicians were complicit in that.

I think it will be interesting to see where Dan Hannon goes from here. He's someone who has done extremely well from this process as an anti-EU MEP but he actually has a very specific and defined approach in other areas, he's a devout localist and is classically liberal. I wonder if we might see a split in the Tory party along those lines, and I wonder if UKIP, which has now served it's function, might just end up finding that to be their next battleground (and indeed Douglas Carswell who wrote a "book" with Hannon already previously moved from the tories to UKIP).

[Deleted User]

Zzippy wrote: »

Scaremongering worked in the Scottish independence referendum. They claimed an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed EU membership. Look how that worked out. SNP will win independence with a large majority if they run a new one soon.

I think it looks very likely judging by both the recent general election and the EU referendum vote that Scotland is going to leave the UK.

I don't think any other EU countries will do anything until they see how the UK fair over the next few years.

Northern Ireland is the one strong variable. I don't think there is any momentum there currently, but if Scotland leave then that could change.

Also interesting was that the votes in Northern Ireland were not made entirely along existing political and religious lines.

Neil3030

Swan Curry wrote: »

I'm sure the people who voted leave to take their democracy back will continue their pursuit of democracy by removing the hereditary peers from the house of lords and dismantling the monarchy.

Once they are finished torching mosques and imprisoning the Irish, yes, that's the next step for sure.

Zzippy

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Rather, massive levels of scaremongering and doomsday-predictions on both sides means that regardless of results people will be scared and people will act like it's the end of the world.

Scaremongering worked in the Scottish independence referendum. They claimed an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed EU membership. Look how that worked out. SNP will win independence with a large majority if they run a new one soon.

irishbucsfan

Swan Curry wrote: »

I'm sure the people who voted leave to take their democracy back will continue their pursuit of democracy by removing the hereditary peers from the house of lords and dismantling the monarchy.

People in the North, who overwhelmingly voted in favour of leave, would do exactly that if given the chance.

Swan Curry

I'm sure the people who voted leave to take their democracy back will continue their pursuit of democracy by removing the hereditary peers from the house of lords and dismantling the monarchy.

[Deleted User]

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

The faceless bureaucrats were an easy way of escaping any responsibility. I wonder who will be the new scapegoat when things don't improve.

It will still be Europe but with the difference being that "EU tries to Punish Britain for claiming independence".

If the British economy tanks as a result of this and they have any kind of protracted recession there is NO WAY that those who pushed for leave will take responsibility.

Maybe a strong leader will come to the fore, one who enshrines nationalism above all else and who can blame immigrants for all of German.. Britain's woes.

Kiwi_knock

The faceless bureaucrats were an easy way of escaping any responsibility. I wonder who will be the new scapegoat when things don't improve.

[Deleted User]

kuang1 wrote: »

Not yet.
Think I should?!

Yes, it's excellent. Quite different from Breaking Bad but it is very good.

Chuck would be an interesting character for you to pay attention to!

kuang1 wrote: »

On brexit, ideally we'd have a society that reacts more to positive selling points than negative scare mongering.

It just ain't the reality though.
"Do you know what terrible things will happen if you vote B" will always be a stronger message than "here are all the great things about voting A"

Being the only message though is so so sour.

Podge_irl

The EU has been a convenient scapegoat for every perceived ill in the UK for a very long time. And plenty of pro-EU politicians were complicit in that.

Neil3030

Europe never got a fair shake in the UK media, and I have anecdotal reports from UK journalists that their publications imposed a blanket ban on any positive European stories.

Whatever way you look at it, demography doesn't lie. This was older, poorer, more rural, less educated Britain, seduced by devious marketing into turning on an enemy that never existed to suit a minority of self interest. Worst of all for me is how they have inadvertently closed the door on future British generations living in 27 other countries, a freedom they never appreciated and have now denied to everyone else.

kuang1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Have you watched Better Call Saul?

Not yet.
Think I should?!

On brexit, ideally we'd have a society that reacts more to positive selling points than negative scare mongering.

It just ain't the reality though.
"Do you know what terrible things will happen if you vote B" will always be a stronger message than "here are all the great things about voting A"

kuang1

Clearlier wrote: »

Given the myriad factors known and unknown that can affect how someone is you can't just take a single piece of evidence and proclaim it as definitive proof of the efficacy of a treatment because it could be an unknown 'other' that caused the change. That's why you do large scale RCT's.

Yeah absolutely.
And I hope I don't come across as a fanatic who's out to convert the world to acupunture.

And I honestly know nothing about any other so called alternative therapies. (Don't know a whole lot about the inner workings of acupunture either to be fair!)

I originally posted on this topic objecting about the comparison made between scare-mongering/extremist thinking and people electing to be treated by non-mainstream methods...didn't think it was proper.

Swan Curry

Can't wait to see labour replace corbyn with one of the interchangeable blairites and then wonder why they keep losing elections

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

Doom-Mongering doesn't work. We need to discuss positives. Get people interested in voting A, not scare them away from voting B. It creates a negative and toxic atmosphere and it polarizes opinions and worse, people.

Sure I agree. But it's fundamentally a bit difficult to create a positive scenario for a status quo.

And scare tactics, in general, work. But in this case fear of immigrants won over fear of economic collapse. The level overall was ****ing ****.