Connacht v Leinster - 19/09/14, KO 1935 - live on TG4

George Naoupu scores against Leinster in 2012

The interprovincial series kicks off with Leinster's visit to the Sportsground in a game they will be regarding with some caution. Not usually the most open or free-scoring affair, many of this Leinster team will remember only too well the 28-point defeat of two years ago.
In truth, tomorrow's game is more likely to resemble that of last season, a scrappy affair in which Connacht did well for the first half but failed to score in the second while Leinster struggled to put the westerners away.

Perhaps unusually for this time of the year, both teams have a good degree of continuity in their line-ups; Connacht are able to name an unchanged backline from the one that defeated Edinburgh a week ago, with only a single change in the forwards, Aly Muldowney replacing Mick Kearney who drops to the bench. Despite that win in Edinburgh, Connacht will be looking to improve on their performance as they failed to spark for much of the game.

Although it's a settled backline, it's also very short on experience, with Danie Poolman (age 25) being the old man of the set-up, might this count against them if they come under pressure as the game wears on?

As ever, much of the focus will be on their potential Ireland internationals, most notably Henshaw and Marmion, but it's worth bearing in mind that Nathan White becomes IQ this month; we know Joe Schmidt was a fan and a good showing against the all-international Leinster front-row might just edge White into the periphery of the national set-up. Another man with plenty to prove tomorrow will be Quinn Roux, on loan to Connacht although few Leinster fans expect to see him in blue again; tomorrow's game will be Roux's third start in a row, something he could probably not have hoped for at Leinster, so hopefully it's the right move for him, but a big showing would be a good two-fingers to the Leinster set-up.

As for Leinster, their backline only shows one enforced change from the rout of Scarlets last weekend, Fergus McFadden apparently overcoming fitness concerns to replace Zane Kirchner whose sparkling early season form was cut short by a hamstring injury. Up front, Rhys Ruddock makes his first start of the season as he looks to follow up on his breakthrough performances of last season; Dominic Ryan shifts across to openside with Shane Jennings dropping to the bench, otherwise the pack is unchanged from last week, meaning Cian Healy again has to content himself with a place on the bench.

The big talking point from the Scarlets game was the performance of Ian Madigan at 12, who dove-tailed wonderfully with Gopperth. It will be interesting to see how this combination performs tomorrow; it's hard to see Connacht giving Gopperth and Madigan the acres of space that the Scarlets did so this may be more of a genuine test of Madigan's credentials as a 12. He'll be very aware of Gordon D'Arcy's presence on the bench, waiting for his first appearance of the season; but will we see D'Arcy replacing Brendan Macken instead, as the search for the next occupant of the 13 jersey heats up?

There'll be no shortage of familiar faces for Connacht among the Leinster squad; Sean Cronin, Mike McCarthy and Daragh Fanning will all be keen to remind the home fans of what they're missing.

Leinster are 7-point favourites with the bookies for this; I think that's based mainly on their advantage up front. While Connacht looked solid and well-drilled against Edinburgh, particularly in the closing stages, this is another step up in class and Connacht will be delighted if they can maintain parity in the set pieces.

Where Connacht might really be in trouble is the disparity between the two replacement benches; they simply have no-one to match the game-changing potential of Healy, Reddan and D'Arcy, so if the game is in the balance with 20 minutes to go, you would have to favour Leinster's depth and experience to pull them through.

My prediction is Leinster by 7-10 points.

Connacht
15. Darragh Leader
14. Niyi Adeolokun
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Dave McSharry
11. Danie Poolman
10. Jack Carty
9. Kieran Marmion

1. Denis Buckley
2. Dave Heffernan
3. Nathan White
4. Aly Muldowney
5. Quinn Roux
6. John Muldoon ©
7. Willie Faloon
8. Eoin McKeon

Replacements:

16. Shane Delahunt
17. Ronan Loughney
18. Rodney Ah You
19. Mick Kearney
20. George Naoupu
21. Ian Porter
22. Craig Ronaldson
23. Matt Healy

Leinster
15. Rob Kearney
14. Fergus McFadden
13. Brendan Macken
12. Ian Madigan
11. Darragh Fanning
10. Jimmy Gopperth
9. Isaac Boss
1. Jack McGrath
2. Sean Cronin
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Mike McCarthy
6. Rhys Ruddock
7. Dominic Ryan
8. Jamie Heaslip (C)

Replacements

16. Bryan Byrne
17. Cian Healy
18. Tadhg Furlong
19. Tom Denton
20. Shane Jennings
21. Eoin Reddan
22. Gordon D'Arcy
23. Mick McGrath