Ken Rings Predictions/Weather methods discussion fourm,MOD NOTE FIRST POST !

Kenring wrote: »

No, no answer satisfies you. Please do some reading then come back here. I am not your teacher. I am not under any obligation to re-paste my book here when it is freely available. use Google. You have already been told what to look up.

Answers that make sense within what is currently accepted as proper science would easily satisfy me.
Stating that Jupiter and Saturn control the sunspot cycle doesn't make sense.
Saying that the planets have tangible effects on Earth doesn't make sense, given what we currently know.

Stating that the Moon can affect weather patterns on Earth - makes sense as there's a perfectly good mechanism for that (tides). The effect of that mechanism may not yet be well understood, but it does make sense.

Stating that the land tide drives the sea tide doesn't make any sense at all, given what is known about tidal mechanics. Given that the description of how tides work as given above does not make sense, it's a good idea to get an explanation as to where those answers came from.

Please suggest some reading that would aid my understanding. After all there are a lot of quacks and idiots out there on the Net, who don't understand much about science - it wouldn't do to get incorrect or incomplete ideas.
Examples would include "Electric Universe" "Chemtrails" "UFO Abductions". There are a few of those type of things out there for longer term weather forecasting as well, and I don't want to be much distracted by those. You claim to be an expert in the area - so it's perfectly fine to ask you.

Popoutman wrote: »

Please suggest some reading that would aid my understanding. After all there are a lot of quacks and idiots out there on the Net, who don't understand much about science - it wouldn't do to get incorrect or incomplete ideas.
Examples would include "Electric Universe" "Chemtrails" "UFO Abductions". There are a few of those type of things out there for longer term weather forecasting as well, and I don't want to be much distracted by those. You claim to be an expert in the area - so it's perfectly fine to ask you.

At the rear of my free book predicting Weather By The Moon I have listed some 30 research papers that I used as resource material. I don't know how many are still available on the internet.
But I have also given you subjects to google and others seem to be able find them okay.
Please stop blaming me for your reluctance to investigate on your own. I have other obligations to fulfill. Just because I do not supply what you want when you want it does not justify your unwarranted attitude toward me and my work.

Kenring wrote: »

At the rear of my free book predicting Weather By The Moon I have listed some 30 research papers that I used as resource material. I don't know how many are still available on the internet.
But I have also given you subjects to google and others seem to be able find them okay.

Google can be a poor research medium, as it's unfiltered and all the crackpots get their platform. It makes for a poor signal to noise ratio.

Kenring wrote: »

Please stop blaming me for your reluctance to investigate on your own. I have other obligations to fulfill. Just because I do not supply what you want when you want it does not justify your unwarranted attitude toward me and my work.

What attitude is that? I'm asking simple questions based on exactly what you yourself have stated. If I find a discrepancy in that, I'm perfectly entitled to ask, and if the answers don't make sense it's correct to get clarification in case that I get the wrong understanding about the processes involved.

In your 230 page booklet, there are no references in it There's a bibliography in the back, but no references in the text. No way to see what is relevant from the list in the back. So it's pretty useless to use as a further guide - as I would have to perform a full Lit Review to get that information. As you have presumably already done the due diligence, it was only fair to ask.

There's no point in being short with me for my asking, as you didn't provide the right information as to what references were used in the first place.

Seems to me that people here are losing sight of some fundamentals.

Mr Ring makes some money providing a service of long-range weather forecasting. The benchmark for whether he provides a good service or not should be gauged by how much repeat custom he has. If he has a great deal of repeat custom that would imply a certain level of satisfaction, and by extrapolation we can assume a certain level of accuracey. At the end of the day, however, the question of the worth of his service is between him and his clients.

As to the detail of his methods. I see no obligation on his part to teach anyone how he performs this service. He has been good enough to provide explanations within his website if anyone has a desire to learn a bit more about it. I am sure he would be amiable to answer questions put forward to him in, at the very least, an open-minded and polite manner.

With that in mind I do not think anyone, whatever their views, would read this thread and think that Mr Ring has been treated in a polite, open-minded fashion. A few of you are openly antagonistic and condescending so is it surprising that Mr Ring has little to offer in return? I can honestly say that should anyone have approached me in the same way about how I perform my profession I would have been much less restrained than Mr Ring.

However, I can only assume that the more acerbic of the threads contributers are somewhat youthful and may yet outlive the tendency to think they know everything there is to know. It took me a fair number of years so I have hope.

Personally, I wouldn't have minded having a chat with Mr Ring about some of his methods. They resonate with me as I have read some about Henrik Svensmark's work and about the Malonkovitch cycles and I wouldn't have minded finding out how his work might suggest other connections between the cosmos and the earth cycles.

I was also interested to hear about his measurements at places such as Stonehenge and his interpretations about the use of such places in ancient times.

I am personally uncomfortable with the present hypothesis that the place was "Ceremonial". It seems to be a great deal of trouble to go to just for something "ceremonial" so I am at least open-minded to explore other possible uses.

I would not necessarily subscribe entirely to Mr Ring's methods as I do not know enough to arrive at a definitive answer but I have bought his forecasts and have found them accurate enough so far. That is not to say that if Mr Ring says that on April 24th 2014 it will rain in the morning and be fine in the afternoon that that is what I would then expect but his trend and overall monthly outlook has, so far, been spot on.

I planned my holiday based on Mr Ring's January forecast for July and was glad I did. I couldn't help noticing a chap from Met Eireann lambasted Mr Ring at the time essentially calling him deluded for even thinking he could call the weather that far out but it seemed to work so who is the more deluded, those that called it impossible or those that listen with an open mind?

As I have mentioned before Mr Ring is not the only person to make a living using these methods, Piers Corbyn does something similiar at weatheraction. He is also heavily criticised but it doesn't explain why he is still able to produce long-range weather forecasts with a higher degree of accuracy when the larger boys, for all their super-computers and large staff numbers, fail to do so.

On another point, the chap who set this thread up did so regardless of Mr Ring's wishes. A certain level of debate was had as to the differences between Met Eireann and Mr Ring. I would like to add my tuppennyworth.

The difference between Mr Ring and Met Eireann as I see it is that the livelihood of the folks from Met Eireann are hardly likely to be effected to the same degree as Mr Ring if the debate is highly antagonistic. Met Eireann is dependent on State funding, Mr Ring on commercial concerns such as public perception.

You said in the thread that Mr Ring had to suffer this debate as you could visit Met Eireanns website for free and not his website. Hmm, may be you do not pay tax, in which case ask your parents how much they pay for Met Eireann.

All Mr Ring asked for when you created this thread was a level playing field. It appears to me that you didn't give him that but rather set him up on a pedestal so that people could throw stones and threaten him with banishment should he fail to live up to some pretty arbitrary rules.

As to science and peer review. Well, I know little about the process of peer review within scientific establishments but I know something about people and Climategate didn't surprise me one little bit particularly as so many people are dependent on the largess of State funding.

Consider this, a niche area of science suddenly is awash with money as result of a rather frightening hypothesis being aired. The inhabitants of that small branch of science are in demand, their hour has come! Then, on the horizon some naughty boys shed some doubt on the coming apocalypse that, if widely accepted in Governemnt circles, would seem to suggest that the only cataclysmic event likely to happen is to the funding of said cliche of scientists. I may be cynical but it doesn't seem to me that you have to be, dare I say it, a scientist to work out what happens next!

It may not be a conspiracy in the true sense of the word, but if one person of that small group of scientists happens to suggest in a document a certain set of results, that may be slightly dubious, that demonstrate the continuing crisis then the reviewers of that document whose liveliehoods sort of depend on that crisis may allow the results because it keeps alive the funding to investigate what they know to be true in their hearts. Sounds reasonable?

It is an unfortunate fact that people behave as people even those employed as scientists.

I've absolutely not got a problem with new ideas that have the promise of improving our overall well-being on this planet. I've got quite an open mind on new ideas - but I will always research them before taking them on. I've been around the academic system too long (nearly 20 years now) to to take things blindly on faith. I will always question that which I do not understand, and I will always try to help those that show that they do not understand something that I have found that I have a good understanding of. If I'm wrong I'll always recognise that fact, and I would apologise if it were appropriate in the situation. My academic ego is missing!

I do however have issue with ideas that directly contradict well-established, experimentally sound, and generally accepted scientific theories without adequate explanation of why the conflict arises and why the new idea is better. These types of situations always deserve examination, as for the new ideas to be valid they must show why the old ideas are not valid for that situation. This resolution of why the new ideas are better and the current ideas are not valid has not yet been demonstrated by Ken in this thread.

It's hard, when it can be seen that someone flat-out refuses to take on board the possibility that their ideas may be flawed (note that this is a valid generalisation and very much not not aimed at Ken). It may show something in that person's character, that isn't that pleasant. It's perfectly human though and understandable for that.

Fair enough if there's a refusal by Ken to acknowledge possible flaws in his use of planetary bodies to describe patterns on Earth. I have my thoughts on it, backed up by some good science. I'll be happy enough to leave that one as it currently stands as I don't see Ken satisfactorily answering my questions anytime soon on that particular subject. I think I've said most of what needs to be said on the matter there.


I don't think that Ken was put on a pedestal here with the thread being started. It's an open forum, and Ken didn't have to start replying in-thread at all. I'm glad that he did as the exposition of his methodology so far has been, to be frank, quite enlightening. It has even been somewhat entertaining. I do think that Ken left himself exposed when he showed that some of the basic premises behind his ideas can be trivially shown to have no basis whatsoever in reality. I also don't think that Ken did himself any favours by diverting from questions asked. Add that to the showing a lack of understanding of how tides work, given that it appears to be a core tenet of his forecasting, and it becomes more interesting. I don't think that Ken does himself any favour either by resorting to ad hominem attacks and possibly being insulting in the thread, when his refutations fail to have the desired or expected effect. Other forecasters appear to use similar forecasting methodology, but they aren't afraid to answer questions with "I don't know" or "possibly" and those forecasters appear to be more aware of the vagueness involved at this stage in the prediction generation game, and are willing to advertise that vagueness and the reasoning behind that vagueness.


I'll ask some other questions that aren't related to the planetary periodicity portion of the methodology, questions that would give a greater understanding of the core methodology used for the long term forecasting:

1) Is the Lunar Cycle portion of the methodology based on an analysis of Atmospheric Tides, or is it just looking at repeating patterns "on the ground" that may repeat over the periods described?
2) Is there any accounting for the expansion of the upper atmosphere due to differences during the Solar Cycle (i.e between max and min sunspot numbers)?
3) Is there any accounting for the differences in upper atmosphere expansion due to differences between successive solar maxima?
4) If there is any accounting for changes in the Solar cycle in the predictions, how does a delayed Solar Maximum (such as what we are currently experiencing) affect the predictions - would a prediction be revised dependent on new data coming in?
5) Why are some periods from the lunar cycles skipped in favour of others?
6) If Solar cycles are used in the predictions, maybe we could see some predictions of solar activity for the next few solar cycles? I'd like to see if it's worth my investing in another h-alpha scope

Please note that I'm not trying to attack Ken personally at any stage in this thread, and it shouldn't be read as such. I'm trying to see what the methodologies are that are in use, and trying to understand those.

BillG wrote: »

Mr Ring makes some money providing a service of long-range weather forecasting. The benchmark for whether he provides a good service or not should be gauged by how much repeat custom he has.

No, that's a measure of his clients, not the accuracy of his predictions.
I mean, just because people were able to sell shares in Anglo didn't mean they were worth buying...

Sparks wrote: »

No, that's a measure of his clients, not the accuracy of his predictions.
I mean, just because people were able to sell shares in Anglo didn't mean they were worth buying...

Argh, I guess that since I have already mentioned that I have used Mr Ring's services that you represent one of those troglodyte beasties called, in the modern parlance, trolls.

However, I perhaps do you an injustice so I will assume that you are an ex-client of Mr Ring and can provide us with some insight into why you consider his services not to be worth the money. Have you some comparison as to the accuracy of the forecast to observed or other such material. If so please share that with us.

Otherwise, thank you for giving us an example of the sort of mindset that my post was all about

Popoutman wrote: »

True for currently accepted theories. However, it's not yet apparent that Ken's hypotheses are good enough to be known as theories.
.

I think this is a bit of a strawman post. I have just reviewed the thread and I cannot see anywhere Mr Ring advancing a hypothesis. He has said fairly consistently that he offers a long-range weather forecasting service. You keep asking him to "prove" his methods but as I have iterated in a previous post that is hardly the point.

He offers a commercial service that either people find useful or people do not. In simple commercial terms he either makes money or does not. If his wares are valuable then people will continue to pay for them if not they wont. This is unlike, for example, Met Eireann that is funded through taxation.

Personally, I am finding his day-to-day forecasting okay but his real worth is when you take the forecast and use it to give you an idea of trend. For instance his July forecast last January. I currently have his forecast up till mid next year and it makes for interesting reading. I am keeping track of observed versus actual and so far it has been robust. Not entirely accurate on a daily basis but when you look week -by-week its very useful.

I use it for budgeting on fuel and planning work in advance and for that it is really good. Met Eireann cannot give me anything as they have said it is impossible to do but the overall accuracy of Mr Ring's product would suggest otherwise.

If I had a suggestion to Ken I would package up the forecast in more of a trend and probabilty analysis rather than the daily forecast he uses but that is a minor quibble.

Sparks wrote: »

No, I'm just someone who understands that if your service is prediction, then sales figures are not the primary metric of accuracy.

I mean, astrologers have great sales figures, but I wouldn't want to bet money based on their predictions.

I wholeheartedly agree, but Mr Ring's business is not selling predictions.

Have I used Ken's services? No, why would I need to do that? That's like saying that I have to be a race driver to know that cornering speed is a better metric of how good a race car is than how many of that model are sold per year...

Why would you need to do that? Perhaps to avoid the mistake of saying Mr Ring peddled predictions?

Pistolpetes11 - understood and taken on board.

Simple non-fighting non-antagonistic non-derogatory question on the methodology:


Ken, are there any non-astrologically-derived components to the methodology?

Hi Ken,

Quick question if you don't mind. Are your methods for long range forecasting entirely based on the moon and astronomy or do you take into account other factors? e.g. Sea surface temperatures, snow cover, arctic ice levels, El nino etc.

Thanks.

Popoutman wrote: »

Another methodology-related question:

What original weather record sources are used to copy the previous weather conditions from (based on the cycle periods into the past) in order to form the future weather opinions as used e.g. in the August Weather thread?

All that I can get hold of for the cycles I have already listed and have already been discussed in earlier posts.