cycling bet

it's D-Day for the main contenders in this year's Paris Nice and we should see a straight fight between the in form climbers of which there are quite few it has to be said. Alejandro Valverde is the red hot favourite as the stage finish would potentially suit his ability of old but I wonder did we see a chink of doubt in today's performance where he was far from decisive in a finale that should have suited. Conversely Bradley Wiggins really looked comfortable and must have the psychological edge going into tomorrow knowing that if he can stay with Valverde, he will surely beat him in Sunday's time trial. But if it were so simple to have a tet-a tet with the Spaniard; Americans Van Garderen and Leipheimer come into the equation as men in form both against the clock and going uphill and so the stage is set for a massive battle on the back breaking climb to the finish in Mende.

Once again I'll remind everyone that when I get more information on the final climb I'll post first thing in the morning but on the bare facts this will suit only the most gifted mountain goats. In finding a comparable finish I've looked to last season's Vuelta Espana which featured the crazily steep ascent of Angliru on stage 15. On that occasion with two weeks racing in their legs, many riders actually came to a standstill on the ascending road trying to turn gears that hadn't yet been invented for bikes. To get an idea I've attached a youtube clip. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulViOm2PqR8

Tomorrow' stage is not quite as steep or as long but still features between 15 and 20% patches of road which are sure to kill some riders. It will most definitely favour lighter fitter climbers and so we can discount nearly all but ten riders for the stage win.

The riders to look out for are : Valverde, Wiggins, Cunego, Van Garderen, Leipheimer, Mollema, LL Sanchez Monfort, Lagutin, Anton and Ten Dam. I cannot see the winner being anyone other than these. From this list I can almost discount Leipheimer as he would not be favoured by this finish and I do not think Wiggins truly enjoys it this steep but he is in such good form he is hard to discount. Ten Dam and Anton may not yet be in form so they are two more I've discounted which leaves riders I've seen ride well this week but haven't anything to show for it.

Damiano Cunego came to this race instead of Tirreno Adriatico which really surprised me. He would have been suited by some of the climbs in Italy so it means that he must be favouring this climb to gain some early season form. He's on my short list.

Bauke Mollema is a young up and coming rider who is not quite in form but should ride well. Whether he's top three material is another thing. The same can be said of Sergei Lagutin who showed his hand on Monday unsuccessfully.

Which leaves me with six riders. Valverde seems the most obvious for the win but is no price in backing. Wiggins will follow but may be caught short in the run for the placings, Monfort may just be short of the class required so my three remaining to choose from are Van Garderen, Sanchez and Cunego.

At the prices I'm impressed with the form of Van Garderen this week and he's fast becoming a decent stage rider. He may not have done anything of note this season but rode Paris Nice really well last season and followed up the remainder of the year with high placings in mountain top finishes. A year more under his belt, this would seem his type of finish and I expect him to place tomorrow, if not at least give Valverde a run for top spot.

Of the current peleton perhaps Luis Leon Sanchez is overpriced at 40/1 with Boylesports as he can climb the punchier climbs really well when in form. He has shown form this week with a close fourth on Tuesday and just outside the top ten yesterday. He is as likely to go up the road in a breakaway as he is to climb with the best and the best fact is that he is not a danger to the G.C. men I'm including him as a small e/w bet at the prices available. Furthermore LL Sanchez know what it is to win at Paris Nice and after a lacklustre 2011, perhaps he's coming into shape and form for some of the Ardennes Classics in April. One to keep the right side of.



Advised Bets

.25 pt e/w Tejay Van Garderen 25/1 Paddy Power (first three)
.25 pt e/w LL Sanchez 40/1 Boyelsports