Property - Calling the bottom ?

I don't think so.

At least not until the amount of people failing to pay mortgauges starts decreasing instead of increasing.

neris wrote: »

Never say never, when it comes to investments and markets people have very short memories.

I would have thought that should the banks start repossesing and trying fire sales with those properties that would lower the market even further.

Well i would love to agree but i am old enough to remember that property increases only started mid to late seventies in the UK before that there were no increases in most domestic property as people never saw it as an investment. In those day you had to meet the bank manager before he would grant you a loan for a second hand car never mind buy a house and a very very large deposit maybe 25% plus was needed.

Ireland only had a property boom because banks gave 90% plus mortgages to people who couldnt afford it with money the banks had borrowed from elsewhere (its easy to give away other peoples money).............Then when Irish people were told it was going to pop they didnt want to know and now it has, they blame everybody but themselves.

The banks if they survive can never give away money as mortgages as they did before, even if they wanted to, who the hell is going to borrow money to Irish banks?:)

Pretty internet graphs prove nothing expecially the fact that now everything has changed and the main economy of the world is now out east who really do not need us to grow.....so all the jobs have gone out east and to developing nations who tick along nicely and poor old over populated Europe cant get its head out of its backside with nothing to offer the rest of the world but technology which the east catches up on in leaps and bounds.

So my point is there are no jobs on the horizon for anybody to fill the banks with savings and put down on deposits for mortgages (which is what usually happens to the end of a recession)...........unless you become a low cost economy again attracting investment and jobs but that may put cash in the banks but house prices like everything else will have to adjust to suit.

The only reason prices haven't gone below zero is because they haven't been reprosessed because the reprosessors probably don't want them? If mortgage holders still owe you money, that in a way looks good on the books. Hold thousands of reprosessed properties which you cant sell unless at rock bottom and even then you can't sell because you haven't got the money to borrow interested parties .........doesn't look good on the books.

Still it's your money:)

Maybe one day people may realise that trapping most of the peoples wealth in property/banks for most of their life is a bad thing and all you are doing is becoming a servant/slave to the banks for 25 years.

It also is no good for the economy. In the UK there was no recession or boom and bust until people started taking all their money out of the economy and investing in property. Somehow countries like Germany do not suffer the same fate......maybe it's because nearly everybody rents there?

I don't know that there's a long way to drop still, simply because I don't have any real idea of what actual sales prices are. Until the new register of sales comes out, we'll be at the mercy of estate agents, rumour and property supplements for that information.

The key factors to consider are money in the pocket, which can only decline for the next 4-5 yrs. There will be approx. 4Bn removed from the economy this year, another 4bn to be announced as coming out of the economy next year and I would expect at least the same for each of the 2 years after that. Therefore in a best case scenario, that's 16bn less money swirling around than there was last year.

That obviously impacts hugely on banks' ability and willingness to lend, salaries in general will be lower, net pay will be much lower and the key determinant in the prices of houses is quite simply, the amount and ease of credit obtainable from banks.

I short, we most probably have a bit to go yet and it will be quite a while before we see prices increasing.

Caveat, all the above is on the assumption that inflation can be kept under control, I'm not convinced that is the right course of action, or if it will be achievable.