Better Than The Models ?

opr · 03-01-2011 5:07pm #1

Anyone been following this thread over over on NW ? I have just had a brief read of it and some very interesting stuff. I will give it a better read later but a forecast he did recently caught my eye.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64822-better-than-the-models/

Here is the guys latest video in which he is forecasting a huge event from the 1-5 of Feb 2011.

This Storm, if it occurs close to the manner forecasted, will be within the top 5 storms in terms of severity, in the North sea and great Britain area, within the last 300 or so years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iGKjdOo_A0

Opr

fizzycyst · 03-01-2011 5:20pm

does this mean Ireland would be on the periphery? if it came off how bad one things actually get here?
I guess experimental is the word that should be highlighted here

John.Icy · 03-01-2011 6:04pm

For one, that would affect Ireland much different to the UK, it would be far less sevre for Ireland,
Also, that would be a snow event
Also, chancce of that coming off, are slimmer than paper atm.

And would you want it to come off, thousands would be killed

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 6:25pm

Typical, even with this storm, Ireland can't get any active weather. :mad:

Listen, this guy is clearly channelling some combination of vague research paradigms and powerful Nostradamus style angst, the scenario he's talking about here is highly implausible if you follow the sequence, for example, winds of 160 mph in northeast Scotland, all of this happening in some amplified northwest flow pattern?

Usually major North Sea storms originate from a WSW flow pattern and the lows come in across Ireland and the U.K. then into Denmark and the Baltic region, and winds might peak at 50-70 mph sustained with gusts to 90-100 in the most extreme cases. I don't think there's ever been a storm remotely like the one being described in this video, and I can't see any chance of this verifying.

Now, that's not to say that a fairly strong storm might not happen in that time frame, but it isn't going to be anywhere near as strong as this storm.

The wind speeds he's talking about are 2-3 times as strong as what you would read off his maps too, so ironically he might actually be on to something with the maps, but there's no real indication of hurricane force winds there, more like strong gales.

Anyway, I'll have to go over to boards.nl and calm them down, they must all be saying this does not look Gouda. :eek:

opr · 03-01-2011 6:54pm

The last storm that he referenced which would have been similiar in severity is the one in 1953 which according to the below article recorded winds of 45 m/sec (160 km/hr) with 55—60 m/sec (210 km/hr) in the gusts off the coast of Orkney.

http://www.tidsskrift.dk/visning.jsp?markup=&print=no&id=69241

Its obviously highly implausible that any of this will verify but isn't that the whole point in that if he gets it right then it lends real credence to his methods. At least we will get to find out one way or the other in a relatively short space of time.

Opr

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 8:02pm

Well there's two different things to test here, first of all, the pattern in general can be tested without reference to some of the numbers he presents for wind speed which frankly have the feel of a "day after tomorrow" scenario, he's tossing around 160 mph here and 140 mph there but his maps look little more than 30-50 mph type maps, so it could well be that his pattern could verify but large parts of Holland will be asking where's our storm?

I've waded into the cited Net-weather thread and this may get a more specific response about his methodology, since I'm quite open about mine.

To get catastrophic winds you normally want to see low pressure centres of about 930-940 mbs and a west to east motion, I think it's very rare for winds to exceed 80 mph in generally northwesterly flow.

I mentioned over on NW that my best guess is something much less intense and to some extent almost the opposite in terms of circulation, that being a blocking high near the Baltic and east to southeast winds over parts of southern UK, Ireland and France with low pressure near Iberia. I also mentioned over there to watch out for strong winds (but not this strong) mid-January and around the full moon of 19 March.

John.Icy · 03-01-2011 8:46pm

I think there's a chance he's mixed up his mph with kph, there is no other reason for having winds so high.

opr · 04-01-2011 4:32pm

Great reply MT over on NW. Looking forward to reading his response.

Opr

4Sheets · 05-01-2011 8:23am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNQY8NBYnRI

Check out his xmas day forecast 12C in Scotland highlands on xmas day!!:D:D

Only fair I guess to post his explanation of the failure of his forecast..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc0GDiGJkJE

up for anything · 14-01-2011 8:59pm

Just wondering how likely/unlikely the experimental forecast is going to be now that it's a bit closer at hand or is it still too far out to tell?

I have been keeping an eye on the net weather thread but to be honest I can understand all the words in posts there but haven't a clue what they represent when they are put into a sentence.

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2011 11:02am

I've wandered off now from that NW thread, the maps could end up looking something like reality, but after some reflection I decided with the odd wording of some of the posts and the extreme wind and pressure numbers involved, there was no real up-side to the exercise, you're sort of damned if you do and damned if you don't in these situations. If the maps and associated forecasts had been more credible it might have been okay to get involved, but I feel like this could almost be a sort of prank being played by someone who wants to make all of us "alternative method" forecasters look bad -- all this person has to do is plant a real dud like the 160 mph windstorm that never was, walk away and resume life on the internet under his real name, and we're stuck with the collateral damage. Or, people in Hamburg are going to be wandering around Silesia looking for their stuff. I dunno, but I suspect something odd is going on. The guy's responses to perfectly valid questions are along the lines of "it doesn't matter, the universe is full of cosmic energy" that again can be used to make all alternative research look flaky. And if that's not the motivation, it certainly is the most likely result.

With my own work, I have tried to be very transparent about the theories involved and the data bases are open to inspection. In fact if you search around on Net-weather there's another more sane discussion going on about lunar cycles where I posted some material from my research, and also there's an active thread on Americanwx.com where I talk about the connection between lunar declination and storminess. And on boards I have a thread on my research too, which has lapsed due to all the other work I'm doing, but I could mention to former readers of that thread that the research can be followed on the American forum if anyone's interested.

This business of alternate research is tough enough even before you have to deal with the various people who wander into the field and do various things that you wish they wouldn't do because how can it help the cause in general -- but at the end of the day it's anyone's perfect right to publish whatever they want, I think I made a mistake in getting involved with it at all, should have just written it off after reading about the 160 mph winds. :eek:

opr · 28-01-2011 2:09pm

Would I be right in saying a storm on the dates he predicted now looks likely ?

Opr

John.Icy · 29-01-2011 12:25am

No, he is out by like three days:D

The first storm is really beginning on the 4th, he said the first...I think:D

And even though the guy predicted a storm, and he will probally claim some sort of victory with his method, there different things, and really, it's just an Atlantic zonal train, where strong low's regulary happen, yearly, not some 160mph hurricane...

up for anything · 02-02-2011 7:12am

I wonder did he get his hemispheres mixed up! Looks like Queensland is getting the storm he predicted.:D

Danno · 02-02-2011 11:20am

Sure alot of energy in the US, will be interesting to see what happens as it crosses the Atlantic... http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0202/us_weather.html - look at photo 3 of 3 on this page...

Better Than The Models ?

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