Enda's And Richard's Support

Wide Road · 15-06-2010 7:00pm #1

Does anyone have the numbers on the leadership battle, mainly the backbenchers. We all know about Leo and Ml Ring etc but does anyone have any info regarding the lesser known fg td's?

maynooth_rules · 15-06-2010 7:03pm

According to the Mail today, there were 27 confirmed Endas, 19 confirmed Brutons and 24 fence sitters. Any particular backbenchers you want to know about?? save me writing them all up here

johngalway · 15-06-2010 7:18pm

Has Padraic McCormack, Galway West, declared for either camp yet?

Wide Road · 15-06-2010 9:13pm

maynooth_rules wrote: »

According to the Mail today, there were 27 confirmed Endas, 19 confirmed Brutons and 24 fence sitters. Any particular backbenchers you want to know about?? save me writing them all up here

The 2 Tipperary td's, Tom Hayes TS and Noel Coonan TN.

Mickjg · 15-06-2010 9:21pm

Have either of the Clare TD's said who they're for? I presume that Breen is.for Kenny. I've had him talk about him lovingly on my door step/

mike65 · 15-06-2010 10:19pm

Has anyone checked the geographic spread of the two camps supporters. Is FG becoming split between East and West (or Town and Country)?

Sulmac · 15-06-2010 10:30pm

At quick glance, Richard seems to have more support among the younger front bench members (Varadkar, Hayes, Enright and Coveney) as well as the two female TDs (Enright and Mitchell).

Enda's support in the front bench is from the older members.

Could be a bit of an "age gap" within the party.

allthedoyles · 15-06-2010 10:34pm

Sulmac wrote: »

At quick glance, Richard seems to have more support among the younger front bench members (Varadkar, Hayes, Enright and Coveney) as well as the two female TDs (Enright and Mitchell).
Enda's support in the front bench is from the older members.

Could be a bit of an "age gap" within the party.

It looks like Bruton is getting the support of the younger members .................But yet Kenny is only 2 years older than Bruton .

Maybe the younger members see Bruton as a soft touch .

Annasopra · 15-06-2010 11:33pm

I think that Andrew Doyle will be backing Richard Bruton

Godge · 15-06-2010 11:44pm

looks like Bruton has the younger urban and female supporters while Kenny has the older, rural, male TDs. Given that FG (like FF) has more of the latter categories especially when you include Senators and MEPs, he might be able to squeak home.

If the vote is narrow, it will only cause more trouble. The 4 MEPs are backing Kenny. What if the vote is 4 or less? Ditto if Kenny has most of the Senators. How could Kenny continue if the majority of his TDs, the ones who sit behind him and listen to him every day in the Dail, don't support him?

Sulmac · 16-06-2010 12:47am

From today's Irish Times:

Motion Of Confidence In Enda Kenny

Wed, Jun 16, 2010

For, against and undecided in the party

Expected Kenny Supporters

34

Enda Kenny. Phil Hogan. Alan Shatter. Joe Carey. Bernard Allen. PJ Sheahan. Dinny McGinley. James Reilly. Seán Barrett. Paul Connaughton. Jimmy Deenihan. Tom Sheahan. Bernard Durkan. Charlie Flanagan. Dan Neville. Catherine Byrne. James Bannon. John O'Mahony. Michael Ring. Shane McEntee. Frank Feighan. John Perry. Paul Kehoe. Sen Liam Twomey. Sen Paddy Burke. Sen Frances Fitzgerald. Sen Joe O'Reilly. Jim Higgins, MEP. Mairead McGuinness, MEP. Sean Kelly, MEP. Gay Mitchell, MEP. Sen Maurice Cummins. Sen Paudie Coffey. Sen Ciaran Cannon.

Expected Kenny Opponents

26

Richard Bruton. Denis Naughten. Olivia Mitchell, Olwyn Enright. Simon Coveney. Brian Hayes. Leo Varadkar. Billy Timmins. Fergus O'Dowd. Michael Creed. Lucinda Creighton. John Deasy. Senator John Paul Phelan. Senator Paul Bradford. Joe McHugh. Ulick Burke. Pat Breen. Michael Noonan. Damien English. Tom Hayes. Michael D'Arcy. Jim O'Keeffe. Andrew Doyle. Senator Pascal Donohoe. Senator Eugene Regan. Senator Nicky McFadden.

Unknown Or Claimed By Both Sides

10

Kieran O’Donnell. Deirdre Clune. Terence Flanagan. Pádraic McCormack (party chairman).

Fidelma Healy-Eames. Noel Coonan. David Stanton. Seymour Crawford. Senator Paul Coughlan.

Senator Jerry Buttimer.

© 2010 The Irish Times

Should be important to note that Fine Gael elects its leader through an electoral college-type system, with the parliamentary party holding 65% of the votes, members 25% and councillors 10%. First they have to get through the motion of confidence, though.

Wide Road · 16-06-2010 2:22am

Sulmac wrote: »

From today's Irish Times:

Should be important to note that Fine Gael elects its leader through an electoral college-type system, with the parliamentary party holding 65% of the votes, members 25% and councillors 10%. First they have to get through the motion of confidence, though.

Thanks for that list. I'm a little surprised that Tom Hayes is on the Richard side. No surprise re Noel Coonan, he's on the fence at the moment. Things could change by Wed evening. TD's will have to come out and declare their interests.

gandalf · 16-06-2010 9:50am

Well if Enda Kenny doesn't get around 75% support he is finished. If it is nearly 50-50 then the party could split and this could turn very nasty indeed.

If he truly cares about FG over his ambition then he would realise that he has no choice but to stand down. I see that he is considering this being hinted in some of the papers today.

Laminations · 16-06-2010 11:20am

gandalf wrote: »

Well if Enda Kenny doesn't get around 75% support he is finished. If it is nearly 50-50 then the party could split and this could turn very nasty indeed.

If he truly cares about FG over his ambition then he would realise that he has no choice but to stand down. I see that he is considering this being hinted in some of the papers today.

I agree, and there is little chance he gets 75%, and even if he miraculously did, public opinion is against him not only with his ~20% approval ratings in the polls but also in recent opinion polls

Irish Time poll
Do you think Fine Gael needs a new leader?

75% YES

25% NO
The Irish Times Poll...today.

Opinion poll from p.ie

Enda Kenny

761 35.61% Richard Bruton

852 39.87% Another Fine Gael TD

524 24.52%

so for the sake of the party and country the Kenny supporters should rally behind Bruton. I dont respect a party that bows to public opinion on policy issues but on governance issues it is clear people dont want Enda so its hypoctrical for him to stay on in the face of negative opinion while bashing FF for having no mandate.

fifth · 16-06-2010 11:48am

Ugh..it's gonna be around 60-40 to kenny which means I smell a split on the cards.. and who knows.. a new political party led by Bruton?

What happens policy-wise if they defect and create a new party.. a lot of the FG economic policies are brutons..

Sleepy · 16-06-2010 11:54am

I was wondering about that too FunkyFlea. Given that Bruton seems to have the young blood of the parliamentary party on his side could we see a Fine Gael offshoot that would keep many of their sensible policies on electoral reform, reigning in public expenditure etc. whilst ditching the conservatism of many of the older god-fearing, support the farmers whatever the cost elements of the party?

Nehaxak · 16-06-2010 12:44pm

It might well do the country and politics itself here, the world of good if this FG vote split the party with Bruton and his supporters deciding to walk away and create a new political option for the people of the country to vote for.

To many people (in my limited heresay opinion) there is very little difference between FF/FG other than old civil war type divisions - hard to tell them apart really.

Far as I see it now myself, Bruton and his supporters have 4 choices to make if they lose the vote.

1. Grin and bare it, sit on the backbenches, eventually retiring from politics before or after the next election - as their positions within FG would be worthless from thereon anyway.

2. Each of them quit FG and turn independent.

3. They join Labour, strengthen it and fight for it as the largest party in the next election.

4. Be brave and create a new political party - build from the ground up (my feeling is that they would get a lot of support) and after the next election form a coalition government with Labour, leaving FG out in the cold.

Options 3 and 4 are the only conceivable choices I could see them making if they lose out to Kenny and his supporters.

The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party.

Sulmac · 16-06-2010 12:56pm

Nehaxak wrote: »

3. They join Labour, strengthen it and fight for it as the largest party in the next election.

I can't see the likes of Varadkar and Creighton joining Labour.

dave180 · 16-06-2010 1:05pm

enda has brought the party so far . . irish people as usual look at the way he comes across on tv and if he is 'good to look at on tv' . . . who cares. knowone can possibly say enda would not be a good leader of the country . . . it cant gte much worse than cowan anyway. to turn on your leader like them backstabbers have is a disgrace . . . . . he has got them where they are today . . hwich is on the brink of government . . whether enda is leader or not , fine gael will be the next government , who else is ther? and if anyone uses the argument that he is not liked by the people or he doesnt come across nice or hes not a people person . . . all you have to do is look at the two robbers and con artists that the people loves . . bertie ahern and charles haughey. . . so lets face it , irish people are not a good judge of character . . . enda is a great leader of the party and also WILL be of the country.

Paddyo · 16-06-2010 1:37pm

irish people are not a good judge of character

The problem is dave180 that it is these same Irish people who vote in elections.

Imagine Fine Gaels results if they also had a leader that was liked by the voters.

Paddyo

fifth · 16-06-2010 2:16pm

Nehaxak wrote: »

4. Be brave and create a new political party - build from the ground up (my feeling is that they would get a lot of support) and after the next election form a coalition government with Labour, leaving FG out in the cold.

The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party.

Any of these really would be the most desirable options, or else we'll have a FG party akin to a dog with a lame leg limping through the next two terms of government with about as much political sway as sinn fein have down south.

I wouldn't buy into the idea of FG's rebels joining Labour, they'll only be cheating themselves anyway as I certainly don't envision labour changing anything about their current set-up to suit Bruton and his boys.

Same goes for turning independant, it must be a rebuilt fine gael or a new party or else fianna fail could slip back up second place without doing anything to earn it.

Change...it's all happened so fast!

rugbyman · 16-06-2010 2:30pm

To Nehaxak
I quote you

"The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party"

something similiar has been said by JohnGalway.

Since it now appears that Bruton had the backing of just over half the front bench, and from the media , appears to have only half of the 70 vote total,

it is strange that you advise Kenny to go, and avoid a ballot rather than suggest that Bruton call off his ,what at this moment ,looks like a not quite strong enough Coup.

On another point I do not think that Bruton was the driving force of this Putsch(spelling?). I think he was talked into it by the rebels/revolting 9.

Regards, Rugbyman

yahoo_moe · 16-06-2010 3:36pm

Harry McGee's latest numbers (if it goes to tomorrow's vote):

http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/politics/2010/06/16/fine-gael-where-both-sides-are-at-now/ wrote:

SOLID KENNY -

Phil Hogan; Joe Carey; Bernard Allen; Pj Sheahan; Dinny McGinley; James Reilly; Alan Shatter; Catherine Byrne; Sean Barrett; Paul Connaughton; Jimmy Deenihan; Tom Sheahan; Dan Neville; James Bannon; John O’Mahony; Enda Kenny; Michael Ring; Shane McEntee; Frank Feighan; John Perry; Paul Kehoe; Liam Twomey; Paddy Burke; Frances Fitzgerald; Joe O’Reilly; Ciaran Cannon; Maurice Cummins; Jim Higgins; Mairead McGuinness; Sean Kelly; Gay Mitchell

Total: 31

VEERING KENNY

Bernard Durkan; Charlie Flanagan; Paudie Coffey;

Total: 3

KENNY TOTAL: 34

STRONG ANTI-KENNY

Michael Creed; Simon Coveney; Joe McHugh; Richard Bruton; Olivia Mitchell; Lucinda Creighton; Brian Hayes; Leo Varadkar; Ulick Burke; Olwyn Enright; Michael Noonan; Fergus O’Dowd; Damien English; Denis Naughten; Tom Hayes; John Deasy; Michael D’Arcy; Billy Timmins; Andrew Doyle; Paul Bradford; John Paul Phelan; Eugene Regan; Nicky McFadden.

Total: 23

VEERING ANTI-KENNY

Jim O’Keeffe; Pat Breen; Paschal Donohoe;

Total: 3

ANTI-KENNY TOTAL: 26

CLAIMED BY BOTH SIDES/WAVERING/REFUSAL TO SAY:

Seymour Crawford; David Stanton; Deirdre Clune; Terence Flanagan; Padraic McCormack; Kieran O’Donnell; Noel Coonan; Jerry Buttimer; Fidelma Healy Eames; Paul Coghlan

NON-COMMITTED TOTAL: 10

Though I personally wouldn't take any figures as being particularly reliable at the moment - the undecideds/undeclareds make it fairly pointless anyway and there's too much spin around to trust any particular estimate.

Biggins · 16-06-2010 3:38pm

Laminations wrote: »

...on governance issues it is clear people dont want Enda so its hypocritical for him to stay on in the face of negative opinion...

Side note: O' how I wish that was Cowen (and the government) instead...

Back on topic.
I think there is clearly visible AND undercurrent view that its time for change - just in time for the roll up to the next election.
If change isn't carried out now, there will be repercussions of some sort with a public election vote.
Many will not vote for a leader they presently DON'T like. A number of TD's will be aware of this when voting and thinking ahead to the next election.

yahoo_moe · 16-06-2010 3:39pm

rugbyman wrote: »

On another point I do not think that Bruton was the driving force of this Putsch(spelling?). I think he was talked into it by the rebels/revolting 9.

I've been wondering something similar - he seemed unprepared in terms of trying to push his candidacy the other day (though he's had long enough to figure out how to sell himself as party leader) and the Olivia Mitchells, etc. seem to have seized on the whole thing more strongly than the man himself.

Though it obviously didn't go ahead without his say-so - even if they'd threatened a heave in, say, Brian Hayes' name, Bruton staying loyal would've put the kibosh on it very quick.

Laminations · 16-06-2010 3:49pm

Biggins wrote: »

Side note: O' how I wish that was Cowen instead...

It is even clearer that the people dont want Cowen but FF are quite adept at f*cking the country.

Back on topic.
I think there is clearly visible AND undercurrent view that its time for change - just in time for the roll up to the next election.
If change isn't carried out now, there will be repercussions of some sort.

Couldnt agree more. Rumours are that Kenny will step down this evening . Then we need FG to recombine, gather pace, and give the electorate a viable and much needed alternative.

'We listened to the people and cleaned our own house to be the best party we can be, now we'll carry on tackling the big issues you want solved, getting Ireland back on track as an export-driven open market economy, creating jobs and encouraging investment, strengthening infrastructure and dumping FF to the opposition benches for their role in banking failures, Ireland's loss of competitiveness, losing you jobs, and burdening your children with debt. Dont let them off the hook, because we wont"

Eliot Rosewater · 16-06-2010 3:55pm

It's interesting to see all the MEPs supporting Kenny. Is this because they're a bit immune from Irish politics, and are voting only with stability in mind, as opposed to TDs, who probably have serious concerns with the fate of their own Dail positions under Kenny's "weak" leadership?

Permabear · 16-06-2010 4:00pm

This post has been deleted.

Byron85 · 16-06-2010 4:06pm

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Good thing that's the worst of the trilogy. Some of us are rather discerning when it comes to such things.

On topic however, it seems Kenny is losing by the hour.

Fine Gael's Justice Spokesman Charlie Flanagan has indicated that he will vote against Enda Kenny in tomorrow's confidence vote.
It is understood Deputy Flanagan informed Mr Kenny of this decision this afternoon.
Deputy Flanagan told RTÉ News he would not make any public comment on his decision and expressed the hope that the party could move forward in a united way after tomorrow's meeting.
Advertisement

He is the eleventh member of the 19-member front bench nominated by Mr Kenny who has publicly said he has lost confidence in the leadership.
Sources in Richard Bruton's camp said Mr Flanagan's decision marked a decisive shift in the situation.

Earlier, Mr Kenny suffered a blow with the man he appointed acting Finance Spokesman on Monday, Kieran O'Donnell, opting for Mr Bruton.
Former party leader Michael Noonan has refused to say who he will be backing in his party's leadership race.

Biggins · 16-06-2010 4:07pm

If Enda stays, some election public will not vote for FG for various reasons irrespective of how they feel about FF. Thats been clear for some time.
If change don't happen now and the split continues smouldering up to election time, opposition (with good reason and with enough ammo) will claim "why vote for something that is still broken within itself?"

So those involved have to ask some basic questions.

1. Is change needed?
2. If change is not done, what will be the repercussions at the next election?
3. If change is needed but not done at the right time (too late later maybe to rebuilt just in time for elections), how will it effect personal positions?

Personally I think if change has to happen - NOW - is the time for it to take place.
A year or two (once that is done) in the run up to the next elections, is ample time for FG to reinforce with new vigor, to bring about organising the rid of the unwanted crap that presently sits in government seats.

bijapos · 16-06-2010 4:08pm

A split would be madness, the FG vote being split into two smaller parties would be a huge advantage to FF, especially in the marginals. Its beginning to sound like FG after shooting themselves in the foot are off trying to buy more ammo for the other foot.

However the vote on Thursday goes FG TDs should learn to shake hands and get down to work together afterwards anything else will only be damaging to themselves.

Enda's And Richard's Support

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