[Scofflaw]

According to the Examiner (p.8, doesn't seem to be online):

Libertas has welcomed the support of anti-abortion group Cóir for the European election candidates. In recent days, members of the group have been canvassing for Libertas Dublin European candidate Caroline Simons.

Well, it's not as if we didn't know that Libertas was connected to Cóir, but a candidate endorsement plus canvassing for Simmons....that cat is firmly out of the bag, then.

Is this a sensible move by Libertas/Cóir, or a last-ditch attempt to capture the social conservative vote?

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Hitman Actual]

I can see that it might help Coir. They're generally hated outside their own minority extremist section of society, so whoring themselves out to any other groups might help their standing.

I don't see how it helps Libertas though. If such a tie was ever going to gain them extra votes, surely it's a bit late now? And they'll never be able to shake off the connection in future debates. Even during the referendum campaign, Catholic bishops were endorsing the Lisbon Treaty (or at least acknowledging the fact that senstive social issues would not be affected), in direct opposition to Coirs deceitful stance. At any rate, issues of abortion and euthanasia only played a small part in the No vote (2%), so it's not like anyone really listens to Coir anyway. Meh, it's something of a pointless move by Libertas, imo.

[nesf]

While I'd never vote for Libertas and their loose play with "truth" annoys me a bit I don't really have a problem with them. Cóir/Youth Defence on the other hand make my blood boil. They're nutters.

[BlitzKrieg]

well with support like this:



Declan Ganley doesnt need Coir.

So of course they are out helping Caroline instead...

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by Hitman Actual

I can see that it might help Coir. They're generally hated outside their own minority extremist section of society, so whoring themselves out to any other groups might help their standing.

I don't see how it helps Libertas though. If such a tie was ever going to gain them extra votes, surely it's a bit late now? And they'll never be able to shake off the connection in future debates. Even during the referendum campaign, Catholic bishops were endorsing the Lisbon Treaty (or at least acknowledging the fact that senstive social issues would not be affected), in direct opposition to Coirs deceitful stance. At any rate, issues of abortion and euthanasia only played a small part in the No vote (2%), so it's not like anyone really listens to Coir anyway. Meh, it's something of a pointless move by Libertas, imo.

That's why it interests me. It would be pretty damaging in the autumn, and last time they did what they could to minimise and pooh-pooh the connection. Even up to now, despite the rather obvious links, it's been kept quiet - yet now it's suddenly in public view with only a few days to go. That makes it look like a desperation move - a gamble for the conservative vote - yet we've heard all kinds of claims recently of a 'Ganley surge' and a 'Libertas groundswell'.

Something does not add up - I'm tempted, of course, to add that that's hardly surprising where Libertas is involved...

slightly perplexed,
Scofflaw

[BlitzKrieg]

does he still have 500 candidates?

[nesf]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

That's why it interests me. It would be pretty damaging in the autumn, and last time they did what they could to minimise and pooh-pooh the connection. Even up to now, despite the rather obvious links, it's been kept quiet - yet now it's suddenly in public view with only a few days to go. That makes it look like a desperation move - a gamble for the conservative vote - yet we've heard all kinds of claims recently of a 'Ganley surge' and a 'Libertas groundswell'.

Something does not add up - I'm tempted, of course, to add that that's hardly surprising where Libertas is involved...

slightly perplexed,
Scofflaw

Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling.

For comparison, Toireasa Ferris is polling at 13/14% and trading at 5/1 (6.00) which is a substantial difference.

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by nesf

Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling.

For comparison, Toireasa Ferris is polling at 13/14% and trading at 5/1 (6.00) which is a substantial difference.

I imagine that the difference essentially reflects the bookie's difficulties in judging Ganley's 'form'.

I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally. Shy about FF I can understand, but shy about Libertas? I'm dubious - I think the whole thing suggests to me that the Ganley surge is rather like the one in Iraq, and that Libertas know it. I can't see any other reason for this announcement, when they've kept the CÓIR connection quiet so long.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[nesf]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

I imagine that the difference essentially reflects the bookie's difficulties in judging Ganley's 'form'.

His odds have been shortening for the past month. He was out at 4/1 at one point if I recall correctly.

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally.

Libertas are vocal, but I'm not sure if that applies to people who are considering voting for them.

[Hitman Actual]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally.

Something trivial and not really worthy of debate, but I did find the following piece in The Times today amusing. Caroline Simons apparently made a veiled accusation that one of their opponents had attempted to set their Dublin office on fire, and their campaigners ran with it. What with Coir having to help her out, and this bizarre accusation, Caroline is obviously feeling the pressure in this last few days.

Libertas fires off bizarre press release as campaign heats up

In the last days of an election campaign, paranoia can go into overdrive. And so it proved for Libertas, who admit a press release sent out yesterday was, to say the least, “over zealous”.
It concerned a fire at the party’s office on Dublin’s Baggot Street. “The cause is unknown,” said the breathless release, which quoted the party’s Dublin candidate Caroline Simons as “shocked that something like this would happen. The basement of our office building is on fire. I hope that this is not the action of some political crank. I know the political establishment are against us, but this is highly unusual. If this fire is found to be the action of an opposing political party – we will seek prosecutions. Fires are dangerous things.”
According to press officer John McGuirk, the release was issued by an overzealous subordinate. It was in fact a small fire caused by an electrical fault and there were no injuries. The candidate herself was unaware of the details. She was out canvassing in North Dublin.

[Jack Sheehan]

This just in: Libertas go snooker loopy over small electrical fire.

[PopeBuckfastXVI]

Originally Posted by BlitzKrieg

well with support like this:

Declan Ganley doesnt need Coir.

So of course they are out helping Caroline instead...

Originally Posted by youtube

MsDonegal
Joined: 30 May 2009

That account only has 1 video, yeah I'm totally sure some randomer in Donegal joined up to youtube on the 30th May 2009 just to post a cutsie amateurish video of a song about Declan Ganley.

One with strangely high quality sound production values and all.

Oh yes, and this brand new, one time youtuber is strangely savvy enough to include the following keywords on the video

Originally Posted by ganleys youtube shill account

lisbon treaty the lisbon treaty declan ganley song the declan ganley song a declan ganley song declan ganley election song european elections no.1 song 5th june pat the cope sinn fein marian harkin padraig maclochlainn EU labour fianna fail fine gael joe reilly susan o'keefe paschal mooney PRO LIFE libertas

Definite proof Ganley is in touch with the common person alright

[Happy Monday]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

I'm dubious - I think the whole thing suggests to me that the Ganley surge is rather like the one in Iraq.

Whatever that means....

Declan G is the only major candidate from the southern part of the constituency and the only candidate from Co. Galway. This does matter as all politics at the end of the day is local.

To what extent he will benefit from that will be clear at the end of the week.

[PopeBuckfastXVI]

Who says he's a "major" candidate?

He's not from any of the big parties, he has a bit of profile but that's about it. He's no different from any other independent as far as I'm concerned.

If the swastika drawn on his forehead in the poster around the corner from me is anything to go by, I would say he shouldn't count on 100% support in Galway.

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by Happy Monday

Whatever that means....

Declan G is the only major candidate from the southern part of the constituency and the only candidate from Co. Galway. This does matter as all politics at the end of the day is local.

To what extent he will benefit from that will be clear at the end of the week.

That is true, of course. It's not really relevant to the question of how the Ganley surge is going, but it's true nonetheless.

amused,
Scofflaw