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Anyone care to make a prediction? For nostaliga/hindsight?

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  • 07-03-2009 11:11pm
    #1
    Dannyboy83
    Registered Users Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭


    I will resurrect this thread on January 1st, 2010, providing I haven't emigrated to a better country like Zimbabwe or North Korea.

    276 people went to jail in Ireland last year for defaulting on loan repayments.
    54 people were jailed last year for failing to pay their TV licence.
    0 bankers have been jailed for fraud.

    I'm going to go doubles for 2010:

    At least 552 will face jail in Ireland 2010 for defaulting on loan repayments
    At least 108 people will face jail in Ireland 2010 for failing to pay their TV licence(s).
    0 bankers will have been jailed for fraud.

    &

    Brian Cowen and Fianna Fail will still be in power.


    What are your estimates?


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    #2
    Mena
    Registered Users Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭Mena


    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    I will resurrect this thread on January 1st, 2010, providing I haven't emigrated to a better country like Zimbabwe or North Korea.

    276 people went to jail in Ireland last year for defaulting on loan repayments.
    54 people were jailed last year for failing to pay their TV licence.
    0 bankers have been jailed for fraud.

    I'm going to go doubles for 2010:

    At least 552 will face jail in Ireland 2010 for defaulting on loan repayments
    At least 108 people will face jail in Ireland 2010 for failing to pay their TV licence(s).
    0 bankers will have been jailed for fraud.

    &

    Brian Cowen and Fianna Fail will still be in power.


    What are your estimates?

    As I understand it, you cannot/will not go to jail for defaulting on a loan unless you ignore a court order. A court will review your financial position and then make a payment order based on what you can reasonably afford. If you then don't pay, off to jail with ya, which is fair enough.

    The issue arises when people don't turn up to court, and thus cannot inform the judge of their financial position, in which case said judge makes a payment order of X, whether or not you can afford it.

    Self inflicted if you ask me.

    You have a point though. Re: Double standards.


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    #3
    E.T.
    Registered Users Posts: 1,170 ✭✭✭E.T.


    Is that true about people being jailed for non-payment of their tv license? That's crazy! I can't get any of the terrestrial channels properly (I live in a big town) I can only view them on sky, but I still have to pay up every year. Not that there's much to watch on them anyway!


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    #4
    Dannyboy83
    Registered Users Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83


    E.T. wrote: »
    Is that true about people being jailed for non-payment of their tv license? That's crazy! I can't get any of the terrestrial channels properly (I live in a big town) I can only view them on sky, but I still have to pay up every year. Not that there's much to watch on them anyway!

    Yes, its true.
    It costs E2,000 per week to keep a person in prison and it was E160 to purchase the TV license last year.

    More here:
    http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/ideysnmhey/


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    #5
    Sleepy
    Registered Users Posts: 24,150 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    The full extent of the corruption within Bertie Aherns cabinet will be just starting to come to light.

    Some barristers will be making a fortune on the back of the above.


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    #6
    segaBOY
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,563 ✭✭✭segaBOY


    I'd say FF will take a battering in the locals leaving their grassroots and backbenchers even more disgruntled, a change of gov could happen very soon imo.

    I reckon the last thing for international perception is a banker to go to jail, just like the staged raid of Anglo Irish by the Gardaí it did more harm than good.


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    #7
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 7,884 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    E.T. wrote: »
    Is that true about people being jailed for non-payment of their tv license? That's crazy! I can't get any of the terrestrial channels properly (I live in a big town) I can only view them on sky, but I still have to pay up every year. Not that there's much to watch on them anyway!

    Do you actually understand what the TV license is for?? It's nothing to do with your reception. And what exactly do you regard as terrestial channels?? The level of ignoirance on this topic is scary.


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    #8
    portomar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭portomar


    segaBOY wrote: »
    I'd say FF will take a battering in the locals leaving their grassroots and backbenchers even more disgruntled, a change of gov could happen very soon imo.

    I reckon the last thing for international perception is a banker to go to jail, just like the staged raid of Anglo Irish by the Gardaí it did more harm than good.

    Rubbish. The US has probably the most stringent and well enforced corporate oversight and insider trading laws in the world these days and we are at the complete other side of the spectrum. What we need to prove to the international community is that corporations won't be allowed run ruff-shod over common business practice, human decency and the laws of equity markets. what pension fund boss would put money into irish banks in the future if this was left unpunished?? this kind of carry-on is the very thing that keeps big corporations out of some very profitable markets, particularly developing countries, the fear that they will be done out of cash because of fragile criminal justice/corporate enforcement.

    the only thing counter productive about the raid on anglo was its staged nature. noone can convince me that a bank wracked with the level of high class corruption and market manipulation carried out in that bank from the CEO down is above shredding evidence before the gardai get there. now if that was some young lad with a few ounces of hash in his bedroom....the ERU could be called in for fcuk sake. reporters waiting for the gardai to show up, our countrys justice system is literally a sick joke we're all a victim of. particularly if you have a pension.

    rant over.

    im with the OP, we won't see one banker in jail this time next year. Agree on FF, their core support has lost a LOT of cash in this as a whole, and theyve been at the tiller for 13 years....none else to blame.


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    #9
    E.T.
    Registered Users Posts: 1,170 ✭✭✭E.T.


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    Do you actually understand what the TV license is for?? It's nothing to do with your reception. And what exactly do you regard as terrestial channels?? The level of ignoirance on this topic is scary.


    My point is that I have to pay for a tv license even though I can't get any channels unless I pay for Sky. I didn't mean that my reception was slightly off - I mean that I get no picture except for a few jumping pixels, and some blurry sound, and this is fairly common where I live. If I have to pay to subsidise RTE etc, then at least proper reception should be available everywhere. As far as I know, the tv license fee goes towards public service broadcasting in Ireland. Terrestrial channels - I'd have always referred to RTE1 and RTE2 as these, and now TG4 too (as does everyone else I know).

    If the level of ignorance on this topic is so scary, why don't you explain it to us instead of going on the attack?


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    #10
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    276 people went to jail in Ireland last year for defaulting on loan repayments.

    Noone was jailed for defaulting on a loan. You can't be. They were jailed for ignoring summons' or disobeying court orders as Mena said.
    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    54 people were jailed last year for failing to pay their TV licence.[/auote]

    Easily provable and there is no reason why people shouldn't be paying it. I hope you're not suggesting that people not be punished for illegal activity?
    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    0 bankers have been jailed for fraud.

    To jail someone for fraud you first need to build a case and then prove it in court. That is far harder to do than prove someone didn't pay their TV license or disobeyed court orders, which are pretty black and white. That's assuming what the bankers did was in fact against the law, and I've seen no proof that it is as of yet. That's not to say it wasn't immoral or unethical, but if the law does not exist they can't be jailed!

    This is the usual old tired BS that comes out when things go a bit pear shaped. Point the finger at someone, blame someone, throw your hands up in the air and say "It wasn't me, it wasn't me, it was him!". You see it in every aspect of Irish life. If Joe crashes into the car in front of him because he was driving dangerously he'll yell and shout that it was the other persons fault, if a person can't control their spending they blame the banks for allowing them to spend so much. Personal responsibility seems to be either a notional idea or a naughty phrase that we should all avoid.

    That attitude will not get us out of this mess. We all got ourselves into this and we all need to get ourselves out together. If there was illegal activity in the banks then that needs to be punished, but shouting for bankers to be jailed just for the hell of it and because they easy targets for the blame game is childish and in no way constructive.


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    #11
    Dannyboy83
    Registered Users Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83


    MolloyJh and Mena, thanks for clearing that up about the TV license/loan repayment, I wasn't aware of that. (victim of propaganda I was, no other reasonable explanation;))


    MolloyJh,
    I know, I don't disagree with any of what you said. I know the bankers won't be jailed.
    I just like to remind everybody, every so often:D (Trust me, it'll pay off on Polling day)

    Admittedly, when I joined up this site, I was maybe a bit naieve and thought that the law was enforced in these instances, but I accept now that these people will never be prosecuted, and we just have to accept it as a lost cause and move onward, try to depose the aristocracy and move back toward a democracy if its possible.
    I suppose I don't know what I believe at this stage anymore after the FF pay thingy today, I guess I've lost faith unfortunately, but I can look after myself so I'm not really worried either way, just dissapointed.

    Cheers,
    Dan


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    #12
    Morpheus
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 2,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Morpheus


    Things keep going the way they are and it will look more and more like Che Guevara time in Ireland :D


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    #13
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,087 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    segaBOY wrote: »
    ...
    I reckon the last thing for international perception is a banker to go to jail, just like the staged raid of Anglo Irish by the Gardaí it did more harm than good.

    Anglos reputation is sh**e and you could raid it everyday and the international investment community wouldn't bat an eye or care since in their eyes they were a bunch of corrupt little sh**es.
    That actually goes for our entire banking sector in their eyes.
    Investors don't like being screwed over and loosing their money.
    The attitude that we do nothing and be seen to be doing nothing is what will keep us in this mess a lot longer.

    I love the way yourself and Molloyjh are trudging out with the old "if something illegal was indeed done", using the Irish law and it's gaping loopholes to justify doing nothing.
    AFAIK Messers Drumm and Fitzpatrick broke normal company law with their balance sheet massaging.
    Or doesn't company law not apply to financial institutions?
    Also aren't audits meant to give accurate picture ?
    Then what about the share purchase scheme or deposit, is that not insider trading ?

    Even if the laws are inadequate then why can't the governmnet tighten our corporate laws immediately, why can't they fire incompetent regulators (not give them golden handshake) and bring in external banking experts ?
    The governmnet even allowed the promotion of another chancer as new CEO of BOI.
    Ah sure no in Ireland nothing changes, we will stick it out and wait for it to blow over. :rolleyes:

    In most other western jurisdictions what the directors, board and management of Anglo got up to, regarding massaging balances sheets with temporary deposits, organising CDFs/share purchase using banks own money, hiding directors loans, misleading the markets, etc would result in prosecution.
    But insider dealing in Ireland is treated as something the lads in the know get upto to make themselves a few quid.

    Well the international community have spoken, yeah we can go ahead with our shady little shenangains, but we can go f**k yourselves if we think we can do it with their money.
    Oh and keep an eye for a lawsuit from the likes of Investec.
    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    ...
    I just like to remind everybody, every so often:D (Trust me, it'll pay off on Polling day)

    Admittedly, when I joined up this site, I was maybe a bit naieve and thought that the law was enforced in these instances, but I accept now that these people will never be prosecuted, and we just have to accept it as a lost cause and move onward, try to depose the aristocracy and move back toward a democracy if its possible.
    I suppose I don't know what I believe at this stage anymore after the FF pay thingy today, I guess I've lost faith unfortunately, but I can look after myself so I'm not really worried either way, just dissapointed.

    Cheers,
    Dan

    Keep up the good work reminding people ... we tend to forget too much in this country.
    The more I look at your nickname, the Cork connection, the more I think of Dan Boyle :eek:


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    #14
    Dannyboy83
    Registered Users Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83


    jmayo wrote: »
    Keep up the good work reminding people ... we tend to forget too much in this country.
    The more I look at your nickname, the Cork connection, the more I think of Dan Boyle :eek:

    Success is the ability to go from failure to failure, without losing your enthusiasim:D

    DannyBoy/Dannyboyle - LOL, you've exposed me mate;)


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    #15
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    jmayo wrote: »
    I love the way yourself and Molloyjh are trudging out with the old "if something illegal was indeed done", using the Irish law and it's gaping loopholes to justify doing nothing.

    What!? All I said was that if no law was broken nothing could be done. That's just a fact and doesn't represent my opinion on the matter in any way. I haven't seen any proof of illegal activity yet, and apparently niether have you as you don't seem to have any evidence there. Therefore nothing can be done. If it becomes apparent that laws were broken I will be very vocal in my demands for jail-time for the offenders, but until then I'm not going to be part of a pointless rabble of people desperately trying to absolve themselves of any and all responsibility by pointing the finger at others.

    If there are no laws where there should be or there are loopholes then I would also be very vocal in insisting that change, but it can't be done retrospectively. Again that is just fact. I'm not trying to "justify" anything, just bringing a little bit of reality to proceedings. Heaven forbid! We've been living long enough outside the realms of reality over the last decade as it is, surely its about time we all started to cop on a bit!?


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