Will it? Wont it?

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 2:33pm #1

Hi, already the next warm spell is on the horizon as our good freind this time of year, the azores high looks like being displaced toward us promising very warm, sunny conditions later next week.

UKMO latest:

Valid for Wed 12 Jul 2006 to Fri 21 Jul 2006
A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to extend northeastwards across central parts of the UK through the period of this forecast. This will maintain predominantly fine, dry conditions with prolonged sunny spells and mostly light winds although with a small but increasing threat of thunderstorms developing in southern areas later. Perhaps more changeable in the far northwest with occasional rain or showers accompanied at times by a fresh southwesterly breeze but interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures near normal to warm in the far northwest, otherwise very warm, locally hot inland with a small but significant possibility of very hot conditions developing but with refreshing sea breezes around coasts.

:cool:

Snowbie · 07-07-2006 3:33pm

Usually if the high sits over scandanavia it will steer up warmth from the south,moving over a turbelent bay of biscay will create a shallow low.
Then we could have our Ts actvity,but depends on how close the high is to us,further away will be better for increase instability,closer predominately dry can be expected,none the less it will increasingly become warmer.;)

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 6:22pm

Hi Snowbie,

Absolutely, you would want to see the latest GFS. Very warm, settled and sunny. The high right over us:)

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 8:05pm

We could be seeing some serious heat::eek:

Snowbie · 07-07-2006 8:47pm

Agreed DM,bit of luck.

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 9:41pm

Snowbie wrote:

Agreed DM,bit of luck.

If that came off we would be looking at temps of 33 or 34 C inland, thats what +17 850s translate to for us this time of year. Would be extraordinary but unlikely, it has to be said....something a bit cooler id imagine:)

Snowbie · 07-07-2006 10:31pm

darkman2 wrote:

If that came off we would be looking at temps of 33 or 34 C inland, thats what +17 850s translate to for us this time of year. Would be extraordinary but unlikely, it has to be said....something a bit cooler id imagine:)

They would be record temps for this country and i dont think we will ever see them even close to the 30c mark.
Mid twenties or slightly above maybe.
Need a constant southerly flow,(opposite of a northerly blast in winter)kinda like a spanish plume over consecutive days without any hiccups or alterations in the stream,you know the ones which lifts sand up into the atmosphere and dumps it on your cars and windows you`ve just cleaned,well one of them lads.
These are hard to come by just like its opposite numbers are.
Meaning a stationary HP over France with a LP off the spanish/portugal coast directing a plume of hot air moving Northwards at speed,cooling as it does so when it reaches our shores with temps of high Twenties or maybe 30c well inland but never mid thirties.Conditions have to be spot on just as in Winter for snow and we know how frustrating that can be.
But i think the Irish people wouldnt mind seeing 25c or slightly above,but never 30c as we would all melt.:p

Calibos · 07-07-2006 10:34pm

We could handle it if there was no humidity and a light breeze. Bring it on!

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 10:41pm

Snowbie wrote:

They would be record temps for this country and i dont think we will ever see them even close to the 30c mark.
Mid twenties or slightly above maybe.
Need a constant southerly flow,(opposite of a northerly blast in winter)kinda like a spanish plume over consecutive days without any hiccups or alterations in the stream,you know the ones which lifts sand up into the atmosphere and dumps it on your cars and windows you`ve just cleaned,well one of them lads.
These are hard to come by just like its opposite numbers are.
Meaning a stationary HP over France with a LP off the spanish/portugal coast directing a plume of hot air moving Northwards at speed,cooling as it does so when it reaches our shores with temps of high Twenties or maybe 30c well inland but never mid thirties.Conditions have to be spot on just as in Winter for snow and we know how frustrating that can be.
But i think the Irish people wouldnt mind seeing 25c or slightly above,but never 30c as we would all melt.:p

We will have to agree to disagree. The 850s are the heat, if it says +17 then thats how hot the air is. In Spain temps are progged by the GFS to reach 40C by next weekend. Although the GFS dosnt give us anywhere near the heat that JMA or ECM does thats whoppingly high for the continent. No matter what the temperature is prepare for some beefy storms from Biscay eventually;)

07-07-2006 11:05pm

Spain often hits 40c though as does the south of france sometimes.

A prolonged visit by the azores high in the summer of 95 gave us temps no higher than 31c at a push in kilkenny but 6 weeks there averaged 25c iirc.

No matter how high your 850's are,sea breezes will keep the coasts including Dublin to realistic temps.

darkman2 · 07-07-2006 11:28pm

Its been years since the azores high built in like this, this is some block:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Snowbie · 07-07-2006 11:59pm

Okay lets watch closely.Be interesting if we had an airmass so hot on our doorstep.Havin said that 25.1c i recorded on Wedensday as the high,i be expecting at least 27.5c if this comes off and if higher well lets see.

darkman2 · 08-07-2006 12:08am

Snowbie wrote:

Okay lets watch closely.Be interesting if we had an airmass so hot on our doorstep.Havin said that 25.1c i recorded on Wedensday as the high,i be expecting at least 27.5c if this comes off and if higher well lets see.

Its not for sure yet as its still a while out. Indeed the end of next week. Personally though I wouldnt mind the more likely temperate scenario of sunny and around 24C. That suits me fine.:)

jd · 09-07-2006 12:44am

Met hinted on RTE that they think the Azores High may become established from Wednesday on. Suits me as I have a boat charter from Cobh on the Saturday, and a Bass/Gilt Head Sea Bream hunt in Dungarvan on the Sunday

Snowbie · 09-07-2006 4:44pm

jd wrote:

Met hinted on RTE that they think the Azores High may become established from Wednesday on. Suits me as I have a boat charter from Cobh on the Saturday, and a Bass/Gilt Head Sea Bream hunt in Dungarvan on the Sunday

Make sure you bring your camera again with you in case of more lightning,Great snaps btw.

jd · 09-07-2006 6:35pm

Snowbie wrote:

Make sure you bring your camera again with you in case of more lightning,Great snaps btw.

You think it may get thundery again next weekend?
jd

Snowbie · 09-07-2006 10:57pm

jd wrote:

You think it may get thundery again next weekend?
jd

Too far out to tell atm,but can lead to a repeat performance as last week.
Better indication on Wedensday next and more accurate by Thursday.
There is always room for change though.
Basically watch this space.

jd · 10-07-2006 12:33am

Snowbie wrote:

Too far out to tell atm,but can lead to a repeat performance as last week.
Better indication on Wedensday next and more accurate by Thursday.
There is always room for change though.
Basically watch this space.

I certainly will!! I wouldn't fancy wading out a hundred meters + from the Cunnigar in Dungarvan waving a 3 meter plus rod of carbon fibre during a Thunder Storm!!

Gonzo · 10-07-2006 3:05pm

I think the heatwave has been massively downgraded by the bbc, they had 27C for Dublin at the end of this week, now they only have 20 and 23C

Snowbie · 10-07-2006 3:34pm

I think myself at this stage 20c to 23c max for the Dublin area and maybe litle bit higher further inland,humidity will be okish meaning that it wont feel as heavy as last week.HUMIDITY levels at 70 or 75%.

darkman2 · 10-07-2006 3:51pm

I really like the models today, very warm weather begins Thursday. Over the weekend turning hot with temperatures easily into the high twenties inland and plenty of sunshine........the sunny, hot weather looks set to last for the forseeable future in a 95ish style blocked setup:cool:

Storm risk is low for the next week at least....

darkman2 · 11-07-2006 1:33pm

Hi, warm settled weather begins on Thursday. Not too warm on Thursday, maybe 21 or 22C possible but very sunny. On Friday that little bit warmer, temperatures getting up to 23C max, plenty of sunshine again as Anticyclone intensifies over us. At this stage whats stopping temperature rising is a cool source in Northern Europe. However through Saturday the source goes southeasterly and temperatures should rise nicely up to 25 or 26C inland, cooler as ever on coasts. On Sunday temperatures could reach 26C inland in one or two spot but mostly low - mid twenties, plenty of sunshine, no risk of storms or rain, indeed no cloud. Next week more uncertain but indications are the weather will turn slightly warmr for the early days when maxes of 26 or even 27C cant be ruled out and continuing very sunny right through till next Wednesday at least.

There is also a slight storm risk emerging later next week although this may very well not come off, but a low over biscay may drift north.........

Stunningly hot ECM this evening for Ireland:eek:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-144.GIF +15 isotherm...

12-07-2006 10:02am

I think the Easterly will be warm but due to the tempering of the sea track,the effect will largely felt well inland and especially in the midlands and west eg low 20's in the East,high 20's in the west/midlands.

It all depends on the exact positioning of the hp and the strength of that wind.

Snowbie · 12-07-2006 11:45am

Nice and dry again,so far its above avg summer in terms of sunshine and how dry it has been esp here in the East.Dont mind that East wind keeping it cool along the coast as we are immune to it at this stage,dont know if i can do hot temps as the midlanders can.

darkman2 · 12-07-2006 11:50am

Its certainly going to be very warm inland especially Sunday onward with temps getting into the high twenties. Plenty of Sunshine, cooler on the coasts but its still gonna feel very warm and increasingly humid. Also ECM increasingly now hinting at a hot/thundery plume from Spain as a low pressure area drifts North:)

12-07-2006 11:57am

We've had some usefull soft rain in the last week though,thanks to saturday and of course wenesdays thunder.

12-07-2006 12:51pm

You could see some thunderstorms develop in the East ahead of this cold front on monday,much like they did last wenesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

darkman2 · 12-07-2006 12:57pm

Earthman wrote:

You could see some thunderstorms develop in the East ahead of this cold front on monday,much like they did last wenesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

I dont think much faith should be put in that fax chart tbh EM. ECM and GFS are completely different and dont show a cold front coming in from the west. Ive a feeling that chart will be somewhat different later today. I reckon our best shot is if the high drifts east, although your right if that chart came off certainly potential there:rolleyes:

darkman2 · 13-07-2006 2:27pm

Hi, next week is looking increasingly thundery and hot, especially later as a low pressure in Biscay looks like coming north feeding in very humid, very warm air. As for the weekend, sunny very warm. Into next week, sunny, very warm:D

Gonzo · 13-07-2006 2:31pm

this looks like the best one in quite a few years maybe. BBC are going for 25 to 29C for Dublin next week. I think 22 to 25C will be more realistic tho with higher temperatures in the west.

darkman2 · 13-07-2006 3:16pm

Gonzo wrote:

this looks like the best one in quite a few years maybe. BBC are going for 25 to 29C for Dublin next week. I think 22 to 25C will be more realistic tho with higher temperatures in the west.

29C is definatley possible but not in Dublin because of an onshore wind. Inland however, different story, far warmer. The west may do well but it depends on cloud amounts especially during a thundery period. :rolleyes:

Will it? Wont it?

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