JNLR Day .. Jan 2013-Jan 2014

Bard · 30-01-2014 11:56am #1

So the day that's like getting your leaving cert results (except 4 times a year) for radio folks has rolled around again... JNLR day.

I'm guessing not much has changed... FM104 still number one local in Dublin, 98FM levelling out, national stations still slightly creeping back against the locals, RTÉ still dominating the top 20 most listened to shows list, regionals (iradio, beat, etc.) continuing to perform well... no major shocks, I'd say - and not much really to talk about except for a few jumps/drops in specific show figures.

[edit]: forgot to say... also, the IBI are bound to issue a press release heralding it as another great victory for the independents over RTÉ, praising local stations to the ends of the earth, attacking the TV license fee and calling for 2FM to be privatised, sold, melted down, shot, beaten up, etc. etc.

What are your thoughts/predictions?

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 12:39pm

I am going to be incredibly bold - fortune favours the brave - and predict that Kenny will not surpass 150 k listeners i.e. about 70k up on last JNLRs, which only covered a month of his tenure at Newstalk. The extra listeners will be primarily stay-ons from NT Breakfast, so O'Rourke will lose no more than ten percent. I have stocked up on eggs, and readied my face, for later today.

Also, Tubridy to lose yet more listeners (how couldn't he with the breakfast slot being such a shambles?).

mike65 · 30-01-2014 1:05pm

I can hardly contain myself!

2FM down in Dublin
NT up in the mid morning slot seems a fair prediction!

padd b1975 · 30-01-2014 2:51pm

Plenty of tabloid headline fodder for Sean O' Rourke and Pat Kenny even though any changes in their numbers will be marginal.

Ash.J.Williams · 30-01-2014 3:39pm

any news?

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 3:46pm

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

any news?

There's an embargo on their release till 5pm.

To keep you entertained, quote from 2FM head, Dan Healy:

"Ryan Tubridy had the most difficult job in the history of radio. (following death of Gerry Ryan) You could have put Jesus Christ in that slot and the figures would have dropped. It's as simple as that. Tubridy did an extraordinary job - he helped stabilise 2fm after Gerry's death."

Even Jesus couldn't have followed in Gerry Ryan's shoes, says 2fm's boss | Irish Independent

Do you think Gerry Ryan will be talked about as one of the greats in Irish broadcasting in years to come?

Ash.J.Williams · 30-01-2014 3:55pm

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

There's an embargo on their release till 5pm.

To keep you entertained, quote from 2FM head, Dan Healy:

"Ryan Tubridy had the most difficult job in the history of radio. (following death of Gerry Ryan) You could have put Jesus Christ in that slot and the figures would have dropped. It's as simple as that. Tubridy did an extraordinary job - he helped stabilise 2fm after Gerry's death."

Even Jesus couldn't have followed in Gerry Ryan's shoes, says 2fm's boss | Irish Independent

Do you think Gerry Ryan will be talked about as one of the greats in Irish broadcasting in years to come?

I think the evidence is damning for tubs.....you would expect a sharp drop after gerry died.....but you would expect the show to compete and slowly regain the market....not to drop and drop and drop

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 4:05pm

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

I think the evidence is damning for tubs.....you would expect a sharp drop after gerry died.....but you would expect the show to compete and slowly regain the market....not to drop and drop and drop

Well, his show just got a sponsorship deal, and they will have been buying into the presenter, so I think he's safe - at least for another few surveys. I agree that he has done horrifically - down 50% on Gerry Ryan's '10 figure. However, his decline has been in-line with 2FM's. Ofc, he has contributed to that decline, but I think there's more to it than that the nation hates Tubs.

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:31pm

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

Well, his show just got a sponsorship deal, and they will have been buying into the presenter, so I think he's safe - at least for another few surveys. I agree that he has done horrifically - down 50% on Gerry Ryan's '10 figure. However, his decline has been in-line with 2FM's. Ofc, he has contributed to that decline, but I think there's more to it than that the nation hates Tubs.

To be fair though, is that not slightly inaccurate, they reduced the show by an hour, so his figures are 3hrs vs. 2hrs, so that automatically is a 33% drop, no?

To do some rough numbers (these will be crude, just for example)

Supposing the show reaches 80k people an hour.

3h show - 240k
2h show - 160k

Something I'm missing here?

Ash.J.Williams · 30-01-2014 4:34pm

if the show was good people would tune in....it's not good so they don;t....

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:35pm

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

if the show was good people would tune in....it's not good so they don;t....

My point is that if he had simply kept the three hour slot instead of two hour slot he wouldn't have "lost" nearly so many listeners...

Harry Angstrom · 30-01-2014 4:36pm

Sounds like Dan Healy is getting the excuses in first, just in case Tubs's figures drop again :rolleyes:

How 2FM is still broadcasting is beyond me. 2FM is a relic from a bygone era. It should be closed down or sold off.

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 4:37pm

Greyham wrote: »

To be fair though, is that not slightly inaccurate, they reduced the show by an hour, so his figures are 3hrs vs. 2hrs, so that automatically is a 33% drop, no?

To do some rough numbers (these will be crude, just for example)

Supposing the show reaches 80k people an hour.

3h show - 240k
2h show - 160k

Something I'm missing here?

AFAIK, and blue4ever can clarify this, the listener figure is the average of all the quarter-hour segments.

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:38pm

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

AFAIK, and blue4ever can clarify this, the listener figure is the average of all the quarter-hour segments.

No no, I understand that, but my point is that surely if you are on air for less time you are going to reach less people?

A show with 3 hours of airtime to reach people is going to have more ears tuning in at some point than a show with 2 hours of airtime to reach people?

Ash.J.Williams · 30-01-2014 4:39pm

Greyham wrote: »

No no, I understand that, but my point is that surely if you are on air for less time you are going to reach less people?

A show with 3 hours of airtime to reach people is going to have more ears tuning in at some point than a show with 2 hours of airtime to reach people?

i don't think many people listen to a full show?

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:41pm

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

i don't think many people listen to a full show?

Exactly, some people might listen to a show from 11:00 to 11:20, some might listen from 9:00-9:15, but the longer you are on air the more people can dip in and out of your show and count towards the overall figure.

Ash.J.Williams · 30-01-2014 4:44pm

aren't jnlrs more of a survey? ie they ask you what you what you listen to?

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:47pm

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

aren't jnlrs more of a survey? ie they ask you what you what you listen to?

No, they ask you what you listen to based on quarter hour periods. So what I'm saying is valid in this context of discussion.

They ask you what time you listened to the radio at, the longer someone is on air the more chance they have of being heard and having their show counted towards an extra listener

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 4:48pm

Greyham wrote: »

Exactly, some people might listen to a show from 11:00 to 11:20, some might listen from 9:00-9:15, but the longer you are on air the more people can dip in and out of your show and count towards the overall figure.

Sorry, I see your point. And, I think I remember that the JNLR figure for a programme that everyone quotes is "the reach", i.e. number of people who tuned in for at least eight minutes of a fifteen-minute block. I suppose, for a programme like Morning Ireland, that may be significant, but I wonder does not Tubridy's listenership stay quite static.

Again, I'm somewhat out-of-my-depth here.

L1011 · 30-01-2014 4:49pm

It's not a direct linear relationship though.

Greyham · 30-01-2014 4:52pm

MYOB wrote: »

It's not a direct linear relationship though.

I know it's not, but it's still very relevant.

When people say "The show went from X figure to Y" it is very innacurate to quote it without accounting for the drop of 33% of output/airtime in the form of loosing an hour

RadioAnalyst · 30-01-2014 5:09pm

Both MYOB and Greyham are right. It is indeed not a linear relationship between length of show and listenership figure (as quoted by the JNLR) but the point of a longer show having more potential 1/4 hour segments (or 1/2 hour at night) is still relevant.

In terms of Pat v Sean, I wouldn't expect major shifts this book. New programmes tend to take 3 or even 4 books to filter through in a meaningful way. We may get some indication of trends though. Pat's figure will inevitably go up given that the timeslot was coming from such a low base but the figure of real interest will be the transfer from Sean to Pat (or not). If Radio 1 can keep the loss of numbers to Newstalk down then that will be a success for them.

An hour now to publication and to come back to Bard's predictions I would imagine some gains for Newstalk and 4FM, although the 4FM gains still look like being quite small and more bad news for 98 and Phantom. Interesting to see how 2FM get on. All will be revealed in the press releases at 5pm. I'll have a look at the book when I get it tonight and do up some thoughts in the next day or two.

Mr Pseudonym · 30-01-2014 5:17pm

RadioAnalyst wrote: »

New programmes tend to take 3 or even 4 books to filter through in a meaningful way.

From a statistical point of view, or because it takes time for listeners to settle? Surely, when there is as significant a publicity drive as there was for Kenny, that required period would be reduced?

foxtrot101 · 30-01-2014 5:56pm

Greyham wrote: »

No, they ask you what you listen to based on quarter hour periods. So what I'm saying is valid in this context of discussion.

They ask you what time you listened to the radio at, the longer someone is on air the more chance they have of being heard and having their show counted towards an extra listener

I think the figures you gave as an example in your original post are the reach figures i.e. the number of people who had the opportunity to hear an ad on that programme on an average day. It doesn't matter how long they were listening. Gerry Ryan's figures would have included those who had only tuned in after 11, whereas Tubridy's doesn't. So the show being an hour less would have explained some of( but not all of)the initial drop off, but not most of the subsequent ones. Tubs reign has still been a disaster though no matter what way you look at it.

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 6:00pm

G’day All!

Usual quarterly outpourings based on the JNLR (2013 Q4) http://goo.gl/CXQQGw. Year on year the landscape is more or less the same with a few variations on the theme.

There are plenty of figures, and like two people looking at art, you can all draw your own individual conclusions.

My takes to highlight here would be (there are plenty – but limited to three here)

a) Dublin listenership seems to be in a terminal decline and the ‘youth’ stations are struggling in the capital in this (and previous surveys).

b) The top 30 leader board of programmes is a nearly must have (and a pain in the arse to compile). Some winners and some losers. Only five of the contestants managed to increase their listenership by +10% over the year - so “bula bus” as one of those five would have said, have he not been canned – Hector, I mean. Strange decision!

c) Newstalk: well they threw the kitchen sink at it and Pat Kenny and it lok as if it will pay dividends. But a few week back I began to think how he might do and (here one I made earlier and filled in the figures) there’s a bit of a thought provoking model (Excel Model!) here http://goo.gl/Q9FFRW that if nothing else is food for thought. Mathematically sound, just need some speculation. (Saw Mr Mr Pseudon estimate of PK's number earlier - this will give you a few minutes of a laugh)

C

jmcc · 30-01-2014 6:06pm

So Hector was up 12% and the muppets in 2FM management fire him. Tubridy is down 8% and the muppets keep him on. Institutionalised failure?

Regards...jmcc

Itssoeasy · 30-01-2014 6:11pm

jmcc wrote: »

So Hector was up 12% and the muppets in 2FM management fire him. Tubridy is down 8% and the muppets keep him on. Institutionalised failure?

Regards...jmcc

So what will 2fm say to spin this one ? So hector increases his listenership and has been the only one firred on 2fm.

Deedsie · 30-01-2014 6:22pm

Any word on off the ball?

JamesReeves · 30-01-2014 6:34pm

From FM104

foxtrot101 · 30-01-2014 6:34pm

Deedsie wrote: »

Any word on off the ball?

43,000.

heybaby · 30-01-2014 6:37pm

Deedsie wrote: »

Any word on off the ball?

From Newstalk website :

According to the figures, Newstalk now reaches a record 315,000 listeners daily.
Newstalk Breakfast have 126,000 listeners daily - an increase in 5,000 listeners on the last book.
Meanwhile The Pat Kenny Show has 96,000 listeners daily, which is an impressive 18,000 increase in listeners on the last book.
Moncrieff has 112,000 listeners per day, which represents an increase of 17,000 year on year.
The Right Hook has meanwhile maintained a strong position with 130,000 listeners daily, and Off the Ball has 43,000 listeners - an increase of 4,000 year on year.

Im genuinely surprised at the OTB figure

foxtrot101 · 30-01-2014 6:40pm

heybaby wrote: »

Im genuinely surprised at the OTB figure

Yep, it's a hard one to explain alright. No accounting for other people's taste, I suppose. Although, OTB now includes the two weekend shows as well. So how does that work JNLR-wise?

Pb Eso · 30-01-2014 7:06pm

foxtrot101 wrote: »

Yep, it's a hard one to explain alright. No accounting for other people's taste, I suppose. Although, OTB now includes the two weekend shows as well. So how does that work JNLR-wise?

The Key question is whether this figure is

comparing off the ball weeknights now vs off the ball weeknights 1 year ago

or

off the ball week nights and weekends (now) vs off the ball (weeknights only) one year ago?

Would anyone on here know the answer?

Itssoeasy · 30-01-2014 7:47pm

The today fm website is saying that Ian Dempsey, Matt cooper, louise duffy, Colm o Sullivan, Paul mcloone and premier league live have increased their listenership figures.

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 7:55pm

Pb Eso wrote: »

The Key question is whether this figure is

comparing off the ball weeknights now vs off the ball weeknights 1 year ago

or

off the ball week nights and weekends (now) vs off the ball (weeknights only) one year ago?

Would anyone on here know the answer?

In the figs I posted earlier - its M-F 2013 Vs M-F 2012 - a level playing surface if you like.

TheLonelyOne · 30-01-2014 8:02pm

Anyone have the link please?

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 8:07pm

TheLonelyOne wrote: »

Anyone have the link please?

This:
http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/radio/jnlr-2013-q4-station-programmes

Greyham · 30-01-2014 8:29pm

blue4ever wrote: »

This:
http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/radio/jnlr-2013-q4-station-programmes

Wow, the jump for "Marty in the Morning" is enormous. 41%

soc160 · 30-01-2014 8:33pm

Pb Eso wrote: »

The Key question is whether this figure is

comparing off the ball weeknights now vs off the ball weeknights 1 year ago

or

off the ball week nights and weekends (now) vs off the ball (weeknights only) one year ago?

Would anyone on here know the answer?

To be honest those kind of figures don't matter too much at the moment, it's just for sales and marketing purposes really, stations would get a proper breakdown of daily listenership that they pay for, i'm sure someone on here has a more detailed breakdown.

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 9:15pm

soc160 wrote: »

To be honest those kind of figures don't matter too much at the moment, it's just for sales and marketing purposes really, stations would get a proper breakdown of daily listenership that they pay for, i'm sure someone on here has a more detailed breakdown.

Just for Sales..? the life blood of a station (unless you're RTE). Can't understand were you are coming from and there is no daily update. #smacksface

spank_inferno · 30-01-2014 9:22pm

So aside from OTB & lunchtime,Pat Kenny is the least popular show on NT.

Is 96,000 much of a difference over what Tom Dunne was getting?

telekon · 30-01-2014 10:02pm

blue4ever wrote: »

This:
http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/radio/jnlr-2013-q4-station-programmes

spank_inferno wrote: »

So aside from OTB & lunchtime,Pat Kenny is the least popular show on NT.

Is 96,000 much of a difference over what Tom Dunne was getting?

Check out the following link (following on from the above link from blue4ever):

It speculates that PK could have as many as 172,000 listeners!!:eek:

http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/radio/pat-kenny-s-potential-audience

honeybear · 30-01-2014 10:15pm

Greyham wrote: »

Wow, the jump for "Marty in the Morning" is enormous. 41%

I love listening to Marty!!! He doesn't take himself too seriously.

Infoanon · 30-01-2014 10:40pm

soc160 wrote: »

To be honest those kind of figures don't matter too much at the moment, it's just for sales and marketing purposes really, stations would get a proper breakdown of daily listenership that they pay for, i'm sure someone on here has a more detailed breakdown.

Until recently stations were not allowed disclose that level of detail,only in the last week has this requirement changed.

Loafing Oaf · 30-01-2014 10:45pm

heybaby wrote: »

From Newstalk website :

According to the figures, Newstalk now reaches a record 315,000 listeners daily.
Newstalk Breakfast have 126,000 listeners daily - an increase in 5,000 listeners on the last book.
Meanwhile The Pat Kenny Show has 96,000 listeners daily, which is an impressive 18,000 increase in listeners on the last book.
Moncrieff has 112,000 listeners per day, which represents an increase of 17,000 year on year.
The Right Hook has meanwhile maintained a strong position with 130,000 listeners daily, and Off the Ball has 43,000 listeners - an increase of 4,000 year on year.

Im genuinely surprised at the OTB figure

May have something to do with the collapse in listenership for Arena on R1, people desperate for any sort of talk radio alternative that time of the evening?

Intriguing how numbers across all stations fall off the cliff at 7.

Losty Dublin · 30-01-2014 11:28pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Intriguing how numbers across all stations fall off the cliff at 7.

Partly because the majority of commuting listeners have gotten home by then, partly because TV's and ovens go on at home and partly because stations tend to broadcast shows with a less broad audience.

soc160 · 30-01-2014 11:40pm

blue4ever wrote: »

Just for Sales..? the life blood of a station (unless you're RTE). Can't understand were you are coming from and there is no daily update. #smacksface

You keep smacking your face there. What I mean those figures aren't exactly what people here want, the OTB weekend figures should be separate alright. I know sales are important, but we aren't the selling sponsorship for Newstalk here so there's no need to act the smart arse. Stations can get a breakdown of average listenership per hour, so they know on average how many people are listening at 6pm and 6am, using that they can figure out how many listeners are tuning in at different times and work out how many people listen on Thursday night and Sunday during a live game... Those figures would be more relevant to people here rather than they amalgamated figures we get this way.

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 11:53pm

#smacksface #smacksface-in-a-smartarse-way.

How could you collect those statistics/numbers - seriously how?

soc160 · 30-01-2014 11:54pm

blue4ever wrote: »

#smacksface #smacksface-in-a-smartarse-way.

How could you collect those statistics/numbers - seriously how?

They ask people what they listen to each quarter hour for a day.

blue4ever · 30-01-2014 11:55pm

they do - thats how the numbers are collected

blue4ever · 31-01-2014 12:00am

Here's N/T over the last three years by 1/4 hours. The industry really cant do much better?

JNLR Day .. Jan 2013-Jan 2014

Comments