Aussie dollar falling

ifeelill · 31-07-2013 2:21am

colman1212 wrote: »

This currency stuff is depressing me! I've saved a fair few dollars in Australia and just watching it go through the floor now. Was planning on moving home next year.

Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.

the flananator · 31-07-2013 9:02am

Any reason for the dip yesterday?

Any indication as to whether it is likely to fall much further before the end of the year?

Saving to go home for good in November, and watching my Aussie dollars depreciate like this is pretty gutting.

res ipsa · 31-07-2013 9:28am

Glen Stevens spoke at a dinner & basically said they would cut rates on Tuesday hence the drop.
Get out. Get out of AUD or be prepared to stay here forever.

res ipsa · 31-07-2013 9:29am

ifeelill wrote: »

Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.

And whether you'll be still alive when it does.

FernandoTorres · 31-07-2013 9:38am

It seems the AUD is only going to go one way now and that is weaker. The Aussie central bankers want to devalue it and there's plenty more room to maneuver with rates at 2.75% as long as inflation stays low. On the other side, Euro rates have never been lower so any reduction by Aus or increase by Euro is going to weaken the AUD. That said, who knows what the future holds! All fun and games in the FX markets!

cnocbui · 31-07-2013 9:58am

res ipsa wrote: »

And whether you'll be still alive when it does.

I think that is overly pessimistic. For the A$ to remain depressed would require China to stagnate for a similar period. I don't think that likely.

There is also the elephant in the room - Greece. I find it a bit odd that the Euro has climbed again as if all is now sweet with the Euro and it's plain sailing from here. Calm before the storm perhaps.

Timistry · 31-07-2013 12:24pm

Just sent home a few bob to fund my xmas trip home whilst I have the money handy. Just in case it nosedives even more. I got some shock today when I saw the exchange rates. Its hard to believe I have lost 1000's euro in the past few months...:(

catbear · 31-07-2013 3:35pm

It's all about what happens in China......

ScreenHunter_15-Jul.-04-09.32.gif

Especially for Perth.

jank · 31-07-2013 3:39pm

On a downward trend at the moment and China seems to be slowing down but personally I think its overdone. The US are still not out of the woods and Europe has huge question marks over it. It seems everything is on hold there until the German Elections are over and done with in September. Expect another crisis or four in the coming years.
This time of year trading volumes are generally lower as lots of traders in the US and Europe are away on holidays. Expect a more realistic outlook come Labour Day in the US.

jank · 31-07-2013 3:42pm

China has an impact but the Fed in Washington has much more influence on the price of AUD than Iron Ore prices.

catbear · 31-07-2013 4:06pm

jank wrote: »

China has an impact but the Fed in Washington has much more influence on the price of AUD than Iron Ore prices.

Would the Aussie$ have soared as high as it did over the last few years without the command economy of China?

the flananator · 01-08-2013 12:57am

Jeez, seems to have dropped a little again yesterday. Probably time to move a few grand home. Anyone know how much it costs generally to transfer money from an Aussie account to an Irish one? I'm with Commonwealth.

jank · 01-08-2013 12:59am

catbear wrote: »

Would the Aussie$ have soared as high as it did over the last few years without the command economy of China?

Would the AUD-USD exchange rate have been at parity would it not have been for 3 rounds of QE and near zero % interest rates from the Fed? Remember, the AUD went from 1.02 USD to .92 in a matter of two weeks after the fed said that their buying up of US T-bills would be easing up in the medium term future and the long term future would see a rise in interest rates. China has had an affect of course but the Chinese economy has been slowing down for the past year or more at this stage. Watch what the Fed does to and see the impact on the AUD.

Legend100 · 01-08-2013 1:10am

the flananator wrote: »

Jeez, seems to have dropped a little again yesterday. Probably time to move a few grand home. Anyone know how much it costs generally to transfer money from an Aussie account to an Irish one? I'm with Commonwealth.

open up a currencyfair account - it will save you a fortune

google it (not sure if we are all allowed link directly in this forum)

When I sent money home the first time I got here, $30 charge from CBA, terrible exchange rate and charged by BOI to receive foreign currency too!

Avoid all this with currencyfair!!
Just a simple $4 per transaction fee

the flananator · 01-08-2013 1:22am

Legend100 wrote: »

open up a currencyfair account - it will save you a fortune

google it (not sure if we are all allowed link directly in this forum)

When I sent money home the first time I got here, $30 charge from CBA, terrible exchange rate and charged by BOI to receive foreign currency too!

Avoid all this with currencyfair!!
Just a simple $4 per transaction fee

Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?

Legend100 · 01-08-2013 1:26am

for eg CBA right now are selling euro for 0.6294 (per the website)
currency fair rate is 0.6705

That can be quite a saving if you are transferring large amounts......even though gone are days in April when it was 0.83!!!

jank · 01-08-2013 1:33am

NEVER EVER transfer large sums of money using a normal bank account especially from the big four banks. They screw you royally on the exchange rate. I have a citi bank account and may use them if they have a good exchange rate. I think they offer free international money transfers for their everyday account just need to see how they derive their FX

Sundy · 01-08-2013 1:37am

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?

they have bank accounts in Ireland and Oz so you transfer the money here to their account here (oz) think its bank of america and it gets transferred out of their account in the dublin branch to you irish account.

Works really good.

the flananator · 01-08-2013 1:50am

Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!

mandrake04 · 01-08-2013 2:57am

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!

I doubt the $Au will jump up it will continue to fall against the $US, but the € will probably fall giving the same effect.

the flananator · 01-08-2013 3:44am

mandrake04 wrote: »

I doubt the $Au will jump up it will continue to fall against the $US, but the € will probably fall giving the same effect.

Cheers pal, yeah, that's what I'm hoping for. Seems counter intuitive to hope the Euro weakens considering I'm planning to move back to Ireland long term, but all my savings are in dollars! Kicking myself for not moving money back months ago, pretty dumb.

catbear · 01-08-2013 3:54am

the flananator wrote: »

pretty dumb.

Don't beat yourself up, plenty lose their life savings betting on currencies, now that's dumb!

jank · 01-08-2013 4:08am

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!

If we knew that we would all be millionaires!

Truth is nobody knows but you can look at trends. Its kinda ominous that the AUD-USD has broken the .90c barrier. This is due to an interest rate cut that is almost definitely expected to happen on Tuesday. After that though it could rise again to 92, 93 or so. I think the days of parity are gone though unless other macro economic shocks come into play such as weakening of the US economy. Remember they still have to sort out their federal budget, this is meant to be sorted in the fall. Also the US economy is recovering although very slowly, what type of recovery can we expect once the Fed turns off the $85 billion a month it pours into the economy? Lets not even talk about Europe! The markets are very reactive and they have the AUD in their sights now and its not pretty. Next week though their attention will shift elsewhere.

So in summary I would look at any thing in the region of the AUD-USD being above 91 or 92 cents and anything over AUDEUR .70 as a time to transfer money to Europe or the US. There are other ways to hedge mind you such as buying shares in AUD companies that have lots of revenue coming in from the US. QBE is one such company I have invested in and it is no surprise that their share price over the past 3 months have gained 25% (2% today alone) while the AUD has lost almost 15% of its value.

Having all your eggs in one basket is risky. Might be a little late for some but I have made lots of mistakes regarding money but if its a mistakes learned and not repeated in the future then its worth it in the long run and you can put it down to experience.

Above is only my opinion and DYOR!!

jank · 01-08-2013 5:09am

Also those thinking that the Euro will weaken as much as the AUD, think again.

catbear · 01-08-2013 6:01am

I was wondering about that jank, the Euro over the last year has gained 8% against the US$ and 25% against the Aus$. I might be finished in Aus by the end of the year and was hoping to get a better rate for what ever super I get back, ah well, I can only hope it won't be back down to Aus$1.66/Euro!

raymann · 01-08-2013 6:03am

ifeelill wrote: »

Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.

eh? is that a fact is it. the reality the aus$ will rise and fall depending on a number of mostly factors outside its control. one things for certain, looking at the history of the $, these ALL time highs were a complete anomaly.

raymann · 01-08-2013 6:06am

jank wrote: »

Also those thinking that the Euro will weaken as much as the AUD, think again.

the bottom of that list is loaded with the commodity currencies.

catbear · 01-08-2013 6:14am

Seeing as it's strength was commodity driven I'm surprised it didn't crash sooner.

colman1212 · 01-08-2013 6:28am

So you think hold out and pray that the dollar gets back over the 70c mark and then cash out is the best approach? Thats probably what I'm going to do. I'm not in a rush anyway, planning on moving home in May 2014 but god knows what will happen here between now and then.

jank · 01-08-2013 7:40am

Another factor. China is slowing down to be sure but if the slowdown becomes an issue for Beijing keeping the people happy and in jobs then you can bet your top dollar that they will pump 100's of billions of cheap money into the economy to keep the ship going that bit longer, they will give a massive boast to commodity prices that is getting cheaper by the week. It could happen next year or in 10 years... but it will happen.

catbear · 01-08-2013 7:43am

colman1212 wrote: »

So you think hold out and pray that the dollar gets back over the 70c mark and then cash out is the best approach? Thats probably what I'm going to do. I'm not in a rush anyway, planning on moving home in May 2014 but god knows what will happen here between now and then.

As jank said if we knew the answer to which way it will go then we'd be rich. I've been just buying euros on a regular basis as i've no long term interest in oz, as i'm nearing the end of my time here and the aussie drops to €.66 then i'll just use the rest for bumming around asia for a while. Thankfully as our sponsor running out of work they'll have to pay for our flights outta here which i reckon will get pricier with a weaker dollar.

ballooba · 01-08-2013 10:05am

catbear wrote: »

Thankfully as our sponsor running out of work they'll have to pay for our flights outta here which i reckon will get pricier with a weaker dollar.

I doubt it, airlines charge the fares that the market can bear. Hence why flights out of Aus have been way more expensive than flights into Aus in recent years.

cnocbui · 01-08-2013 11:15am

the flananator wrote: »

Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?

You might also want to have a look at Ozforex. They seem to have a pretty good rate:

0.6779 Ozforex
0.6751 Currencyfair
0.6324 CBA

The rates banks offer you are not amusing.

ifeelill · 01-08-2013 1:18pm

the flananator wrote: »

Kicking myself for not moving money back months ago

I'd say there's a likelihood that you would be kicking yourself if you had come home a few months ago. Things, aren't much better here than they were in 2010

g5fd6ow0hseima · 03-08-2013 9:15am

It's great that they actually have a customer rates calculator to tell you exactly what you will recieve. Also handy that they don't charge fees for anything over ten thousand.

karl bracken · 03-08-2013 10:35am

ifeelill wrote: »

I'd say there's a likelihood that you would be kicking yourself if you had come home a few months ago. Things, aren't much better here than they were in 2010

I think this is down to your industry, i came home 3 months ago and had 8 interviews in a month with 3 offers, i work in IT
Rent prices are a little high in Dublin but other than that food is good and loads of deals, clothes are cheap and lots of sales.
Luckly i came home to the first summer in about 5 years lol

ifeelill · 03-08-2013 12:39pm

karl bracken wrote: »

I think this is down to your industry, i came home 3 months ago and had 8 interviews in a month with 3 offers, i work in IT
Rent prices are a little high in Dublin but other than that food is good and loads of deals, clothes are cheap and lots of sales.
Luckly i came home to the first summer in about 5 years lol

Yeah thats exactly right, there are still great growth industries

Legend100 · 06-08-2013 5:47am

Another interest rate cut.....just what I need saving for a wedding :mad::mad:

at least the market seems to have predicted it with the rate still in at around 0.67

catbear · 08-08-2013 5:28am

Good news out of China, might get a bounce back up to €.70, catch it if does.

sin_city · 08-08-2013 6:11am

Short term this will be pot luck. If long term you think China's economy is in worse shape than the US and Europe then dump your Aussie Dollars.

res ipsa · 09-08-2013 1:56pm

catbear wrote: »

Good news out of China, might get a bounce back up to €.70, catch it if does.

I would say the bounce would be from under 67 to over 68.

But if it goes to 70, I'll make out like Scotty T on Geordie Shore. Wai Ay.:P

catbear · 11-08-2013 3:50am

res ipsa wrote: »

I would say the bounce would be from under 67 to over 68.

But if it goes to 70, I'll make out like Scotty T on Geordie Shore. Wai Ay.:P

It may have peaked for now, I'm cashing out. I have a feeling the pacific peso is about to do another swoon.

the flananator · 12-08-2013 2:55am

Its up to .69 right now. Time to cash out?

Have just set up a Currency Fair account...but am struggling to find any documents to confirm my address. Bugger.

Legend100 · 12-08-2013 5:41am

the flananator wrote: »

Its up to .69 right now. Time to cash out?

Have just set up a Currency Fair account...but am struggling to find any documents to confirm my address. Bugger.

just in case you didnt know, it takes a few days before your are able to transfer money the first time so today's rates aren't overly useful to you

sin_city · 12-08-2013 11:44am

I would say that it has bottomed out.

It went down a lot. Too much, so it should rebound a little.

colman1212 · 15-08-2013 11:20am

Seems to be coming back a little, broke 69 today. Would be nice to see it get back over 70. After the elections next month we'll prob get a better picture.

jank · 16-08-2013 5:25am

Im waiting for it to go into the 70's again, then I'm going to make my move. People should consider a forward contract if they are still looking to save and bring money back home with them in 12 months. There will be a spread involved but at least you can be sure of the rate. All you need is 10% downpayment, the rest in 3,6 12 (or whenever) months time.

Hoboo · 16-08-2013 6:03am

The whole oz economy is gonna go in the next 18 months, shortly after the Canadian. All propped up on the derivitives market and inflated housing market....mark my words.

The uk will have an even bigger collapse in or around the same time......giving money to banks to lend as mortgages whilst the interest rate is .5% will and evidently is creating another bubble.....house prices up all over. Not to mention the money used to lend is adding to the national debt, to be paid by joe public. Hilarious.

Get your dollar, invest in bullets, or go to paddy power and stick it all on my predictions.

danotroy · 16-08-2013 6:33am

Hoboo wrote: »

The whole oz economy is gonna go in the next 18 months, shortly after the Canadian. All propped up on the derivitives market and inflated housing market....mark my words.

The uk will have an even bigger collapse in or around the same time......giving money to banks to lend as mortgages whilst the interest rate is .5% will and evidently is creating another bubble.....house prices up all over. Not to mention the money used to lend is adding to the national debt, to be paid by joe public. Hilarious.

Get your dollar, invest in bullets, or go to paddy power and stick it all on my predictions.

sweeping generalisations Hoboo.

jank · 16-08-2013 6:50am

Arm chair experts

Aussie dollar falling

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