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4/11 to stay 15/8 to go initial odds UK EU Referendum

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  • 10-05-2015 7:49pm
    #1
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,730 ✭✭✭✭


    In his bid for re-election David Cameron has opened Pandora's box and committed to an EU Referendum in or out for the UK within 2.5 years. Not only is this rash in the extreme as there are soo many extraneous issues that could impact the outcome, but it is also potentially calamitous for our state given the UK is our largest trade partner, and border controls between us and the north is unlikely to be a jot in the arm to the peace process either.

    UKIP got nigh on 5m votes in the UK Election which we can chalk up as certain no's, plenty of Tories would be no voters too, add in any general disenchantment with the Government on polling day and the clouding of the issue by the leave campaign to make it about more than just the EU itself and blaming the EU for all that's wrong in the UK despite alot of the issue re immigration etc. being related to the legacy of empire rather than European integration and the odds in the title probably reflect the fact this is something that could happen. Scary.

    Also amusing that the EU vote and issues of the Scottish secession are fairly similar in concept yet most people voting no to one would vote yes to the other.........the mind boggles.


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    #2
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Regarding the free movement of people from Ireland to the UK, I do not think this will be affected in the event of the UK leaving the EU as this is covered under the Ireland Act of 1949 (I think). This of course could be changed but I doubt that the current automatic right of Irish people to move and work in the UK will be on the line with an EU referendum as this was in place way before EU membership.

    Personally, I do not think this will come to pass but the UK will look at this as a way to perhaps push the EU to reform itself. The likes of Germany and France won't want the UK to leave either and in fact even if they wont admit it the EU needs the UK just as much if not more.


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    #3
    glued
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,446 ✭✭✭glued


    jank wrote: »
    Regarding the free movement of people from Ireland to the UK, I do not think this will be affected in the event of the UK leaving the EU as this is covered under the Ireland Act of 1949 (I think). This of course could be changed but I doubt that the current automatic right of Irish people to move and work in the UK will be on the line with an EU referendum as this was in place way before EU membership.

    Personally, I do not think this will come to pass but the UK will look at this as a way to perhaps push the EU to reform itself. The likes of Germany and France won't want the UK to leave either and in fact even if they wont admit it the EU needs the UK just as much if not more.

    The UK are going to stay in the EU. It is not in their benefit to leave. Germany and France won't sign trade deals with the UK as to do so would only encourage other members to leave and essentially 'pick and choose' the parts of the EU benefits that they like. The whole referendum is driven by immigration. What will happen? I think Britain will regain control of its own borders for EU citizens largely on the basis that it is an island.


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    #4
    BlitzKrieg
    Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    Interesting point a friend made recently, that the SNP, northern Irish parties etc are all pushing that the referendum will go by the different regions and not be an all in one majority vote.

    Meaning if any of the 4 regions vote to stay in the EU then the referendum is defeated which actually makes this a much easier fight for the stay in the EU crowd as both Scotland and Northern Ireland will want to stay in the EU.


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    #5
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,730 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    BlitzKrieg wrote: »
    Interesting point a friend made recently, that the SNP, northern Irish parties etc are all pushing that the referendum will go by the different regions and not be an all in one majority vote.

    Meaning if any of the 4 regions vote to stay in the EU then the referendum is defeated which actually makes this a much easier fight for the stay in the EU crowd as both Scotland and Northern Ireland will want to stay in the EU.

    Cameron wouldn't get that past his own party, it will be an all in one, no doubt.


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    #6
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,988 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    glued wrote: »
    The UK are going to stay in the EU. It is not in their benefit to leave. Germany and France won't sign trade deals with the UK as to do so would only encourage other members to leave and essentially 'pick and choose' the parts of the EU benefits that they like. The whole referendum is driven by immigration. What will happen? I think Britain will regain control of its own borders for EU citizens largely on the basis that it is an island.

    Well the only way that France and German would be able to leave the EU because member can not sign individual trade agreements, so that is often table.

    As for the free movement of people, the only way that can be changed is if the voters in Denmark, Ireland and France accept it by way of referendum and it is hard to see those three countries voting against their own interests.

    The whole thing is going to turn into a farce - DC wants the people to vote on the basis of a new agreement but if the UK votes first for acceptance and one of those three countries knocks it back what then? on the other hand if those three go first and knocks it back, where would the point be of having the UK vote on an agreement that is already dead!!


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    #7
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Well the only way that France and German would be able to leave the EU because member can not sign individual trade agreements, so that is often table.

    As for the free movement of people, the only way that can be changed is if the voters in Denmark, Ireland and France accept it by way of referendum and it is hard to see those three countries voting against their own interests.

    The whole thing is going to turn into a farce - DC wants the people to vote on the basis of a new agreement but if the UK votes first for acceptance and one of those three countries knocks it back what then? on the other hand if those three go first and knocks it back, where would the point be of having the UK vote on an agreement that is already dead!!
    Ireland, Denmark and France would probably be in line with the UK'S view of having abilities to curb migration, certainly the citizens of those countries seem to be getting pissed off with wage deflation and subpower public services like health, education, security and housing. Anyway you know how it works, if the people vote in a way the EU disagree with they can just spend millions on a fear campaign and make them vote again.


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    #8
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,988 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    gallag wrote: »
    Ireland, Denmark and France would probably be in line with the UK'S view of having abilities to curb migration, certainly the citizens of those countries seem to be getting pissed off with wage deflation and subpower public services like health, education, security and housing.

    Well the first thing to keep in mind is that what the UK is not just migration curbs, they want the right to treat their own citizens more favourable than those of the rest of the EU and I seriously doubt that the citizens of those countries will be willing to vote for that! Let along get it past the rest of the member states.

    If all the UK wanted was to curb migration, then they already have the tools to do so. The directive governing the free movement of people already give them the power to require EU nationals to return to their own state should the fail to establish an economically viable lifestyle for themselves. However if they were to enforce this provisions then 'Benefits Britain' would also have to come to a halt.


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    #9
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    they want the right to treat their own citizens more favourable than those of the rest of the EU

    Shocking altogether! What a dastardly concept!


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    #10
    SeanW
    Registered Users Posts: 8,744 ✭✭✭SeanW


    glued wrote: »
    The UK are going to stay in the EU. It is not in their benefit to leave. Germany and France won't sign trade deals with the UK
    Are you kidding? The UK has a massive trade deficit with the rest of the EU, esp Germany. It would be in Germany's interest that an independent UK should have a free trade deal with the EU.
    as to do so would only encourage other members to leave
    GOOD! There is nothing to stop European nations from having free trade agreements with one another, having limited free travel arrangements so we can visit each others countries etc, generally being good neighbors. but having our own laws, our own supreme national governments, etc.
    I think Britain will regain control of its own borders for EU citizens largely on the basis that it is an island.
    How do you figure this?


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    #11
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    jank wrote: »
    … the EU needs the UK just as much if not more.
    How so?


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    #12
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Inquitus wrote: »
    Cameron wouldn't get that past his own party, it will be an all in one, no doubt.
    Don’t know about that – I really doubt that the majority of Tories think that an EU exit would be a good thing.


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    #13
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    gallag wrote: »
    Ireland, Denmark and France would probably be in line with the UK'S view of having abilities to curb migration, certainly the citizens of those countries seem to be getting pissed off with wage deflation and subpower public services like health, education, security and housing.
    Immigrants are responsible for sub-standard housing now?


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    #14
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Immigrants are responsible for sub-standard housing now?

    This is not even worthy of a reply, where did I say that? I do believe that a third of a million new faces every year does put pressure on SERVICES like health, education and housing, as any sane person would.


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    #15
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    gallag wrote: »
    This is not even worthy of a reply, where did I say that?
    You implied it in your above post and you repeat it here:
    gallag wrote: »
    I do believe that a third of a million new faces every year does put pressure on SERVICES like health, education and housing, as any sane person would.
    Well, housing isn't exactly a "service", but ignoring that for a moment, don't immigrants pay taxes toward public services?


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    #16
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    djpbarry wrote: »
    How so?

    While Germany is top dog in Europe when it comes to internal policy making and the economic agenda, the UK in terms of a presence and soft power on the world stage carries that crown.

    It is English speaking as is the international language of business (so is Ireland but we really do not matter as we are small fry).
    It has a hugely close and important relationship with the worlds only superpower, the U.S, that no other country in Europe (or the world) can match or even come near.
    It can also draw on its influence and relationship with the Commonwealth and its close historical and cultural ties around the world with its former colonies, many of them are in key strategic and economic positions in the world. Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, the subcontinent (India). You could throw Canada and NZ into that list as well. These countries would see themselves as natural allies of the UK before the EU.

    Such influence on the world stage is not to be sniffed at. You posted a link in another thread which underlines the fact that the UK is still a world power in terms of soft power and influence.
    http://www.europeangeostrategy.org/2014/01/european-geostrategy-audit-major-powers-worlds-fifteen-most-powerful-countries-2014/
    http://www.trendingcentral.com/rule-britannia-britain-still-second-strongest-global-power-world-says-study/

    Germany are quite happy to take a back seat in external foreign relations due to its own very mixed history in the 20th century. Much of this slack is carried by the UK.

    Sure, Germany could well be telling the UK to toe the line, take it or leave it, but privately they will know the value that UK membership gives them on the world stage. An EU without the UK would be very much dominated even more so by Germany (do we really need that), a more inward looking EU (because Germany does not want to be seen as aggressive externally) and would more then likely see it be bypassed when it comes to the big upcoming unsolved questions like Russian transgression in eastern Europe, further Middle East conflicts and an emerging China to name a few.


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    #17
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,988 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    jank wrote: »
    While Germany is top dog in Europe when it comes to internal policy making and the economic agenda, the UK in terms of a presence and soft power on the world stage carries that crown.

    In your dreams! The UK is seen as the US's puppy dog, who's foreign policy is a one liner - follow the US lead, we have seen this over and over again during the last 10 years!


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    #18
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    In your dreams! The UK is seen as the US's puppy dog, who's foreign policy is a one liner - follow the US lead, we have seen this over and over again during the last 10 years!

    Perhaps, but there fore you admit that indeed the EU sans the UK has no real close relationship with the world's only super power, which also ignores the 50+ countries that are members of the commonwealth.


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    #19
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    Worst case scenario is the EU puts taxes on UK imports making our goods less attractive, we will return the favour and put taxes on EU imports and make a lot of money because people will still want their german cars, French wine etc. Overnight we would be able to open ourselves to markets such as China, USA, Brazil, India etc etc, you would probably notice more American cars on the road due to their price competivness. We would also be able to drop a lot of the red tape imposed by Europe making ourselves competitive to the world's growing markets.

    All in all the scare mongering from the pro EU side is a load of nonsense, we would save £50 million per day instantly, which I suppose Germany will need to cover, Greece will have defaulted, which Germany will need to cover and quantitative easing will be finished and Europe will have a record debt to GDP ratio as they hit a new recession while the rest of the world trades around them, how long until anti EU resentment grows in Germany? I would imagine we will continue to create more jobs than the rest of Europe put together and be able to target low skilled labour imports to boost our relationships with all our new trading partners around the globe, after we have achieved zero unemployment within our own first of course, this will hurt the EU as some EU countries have 10% of their people working or claiming in the UK.

    No doubt the EU will push trough more anti business red tape without us holding them back, first will be the financial transaction tax forcing many banks to exit the EU, a suprise I am sure to all the very inward looking pro EU camp that thought all the banks would leave the UK who now deals with the rest of the world. The EU will continue to alienate itself from world trade becoming more insular, continental Europe will also become very destabilised with bordering so many conflict county's, and having a large Islamic/immagrant problem and of course the Russia problem, European countries will have to up their defence spending and will probably notice other countries who Europe don't want to trade with lose the will to "fight" for them. I for one would support pulling out of any defence pacts with Europe if they refuse to trade freely with us.

    Am am excited about a independent UK, open to trade with the world, cutting red tape and controlling our population, bring it on!


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    #20
    View
    Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    gallag wrote: »
    Worst case scenario is the EU puts taxes on UK imports making our goods less attractive, we will return the favour and put taxes on EU imports and make a lot of money because people will still want their german cars, French wine etc.

    You are going to make lots of money by raising taxes on yourself by making all the imports that you buy more expensive?

    That's a novel way of making money.
    gallag wrote: »
    we would save £50 million per day instantly,

    Which is approx 80p per capita.

    Your local council probably wastes more than that every day.
    gallag wrote: »
    which I suppose Germany will need to cover,

    The remaining 440 million EU citizens won't have major problems covering a budgetary shortfall of approx 18p per capita per day caused by a UK exit. It is not as if it is a mind blowing amount.


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    #21
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,988 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    jank wrote: »
    Perhaps, but there fore you admit that indeed the EU sans the UK has no real close relationship with the world's only super power, which also ignores the 50+ countries that are members of the commonwealth.

    Here is the thing, the US does not have any relationships it will not burn when it suits it. They have already indicated that they would prefer to deal with the UK within the EU... and since business drivers everything - they are very unlikely to pass up a 400m market for a 50m one!


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    #22
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Here is the thing, the US does not have any relationships it will not burn when it suits it. They have already indicated that they would prefer to deal with the UK within the EU... and since business drivers everything - they are very unlikely to pass up a 400m market for a 50m one!

    It is one thing to trade with someone, it is another to enter into a military alliance with. Of course they want the UK in the EU as they can then influence the likes of France and Germany more via the UK. For Europe the UK is a vital bridge over the Atlantic.


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    #23
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    jank wrote: »
    It can also draw on its influence and relationship with the Commonwealth and its close historical and cultural ties around the world with its former colonies, many of them are in key strategic and economic positions in the world.
    Reminds me of one of my favourite brexit statistics.

    The Commonwealth has a population of 2 billion people, and represents just 9% of the UK's exports.

    The EU's population (500 million) is a quarter of that, but it takes in 50% of UK exports.

    All this misty-eyed sentimentality of empire is blocking the Brits' ability to understand the cold hard facts. The empire is dead, and in today's world, it is too economically & geographically fragmented to be resurrected. Australia and Canada have their own regional partners now.

    Nobody cares about the Commonwealth. What's more, it doesn't offer the benefits of common regulation and freedom of movement that businesses need to access big markets.


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    #24
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    jank wrote: »
    You posted a link in another thread which underlines the fact that the UK is still a world power in terms of soft power and influence.
    I presented evidence that some people believe the UK to be a dominant world power, an idea which you dismissed.

    Now, here you are claiming yourself that the UK is indeed a dominant world power.


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    #25
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »
    Reminds me of one of my favourite brexit statistics.

    The Commonwealth has a population of 2 billion people, and represents just 9% of the UK's exports.

    The EU's population (500 million) is a quarter of that, but it takes in 50% of UK exports.

    All this misty-eyed sentimentality of empire is blocking the Brits' ability to understand the cold hard facts. The empire is dead, and in today's world, it is too economically & geographically fragmented to be resurrected. Australia and Canada have their own regional partners now.

    Nobody cares about the Commonwealth. What's more, it doesn't offer the benefits of common regulation and freedom of movement that businesses need to access big markets.

    You've nailed it! Stupid brits all harking back to the glory days of the empire, and they are to stupid to realise the no one in the Commonwealth cares!! They don't want to buy or sell to the British! Just, as you have keenly observed, look at the figures, the EU buys far more!

    Or.....

    Being in the EU makes trade very difficult with Commonwealth countries and large/emerging economy's due to not being able to strike unilateral trade agreements, ergo the UK is stuck mostly selling the the ever contracting EU, people may be excited to have access to all those new markets with, as you say, billions of people! Think of the possibilities! Imagine a free trade agreement with China, Brazil, India, Africa, Australia, Malaysia or even the USA!

    But as you say, stupid Brits are probably to busy singing Bratiana rules the waves to a picture of the Queen over their fireplace to analyse the finer nuances of global trade like you so astutely have.


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    #26
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    gallag wrote: »
    Being in the EU makes trade very difficult with Commonwealth countries and large/emerging economy's due to not being able to strike unilateral trade agreements...
    Because?


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    #27
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Because?

    Really? You don't understand how having a free trade agreement can boost trade with a country? You don't understand how having to impose taxes on a country and that being reciprocated can negatively affect trade?


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    #28
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    gallag wrote: »
    You've nailed it! Stupid brits all harking back to the glory days of the empire, and they are to stupid to realise the no one in the Commonwealth cares!!
    You're correct.

    I have nailed it.
    Being in the EU makes trade very difficult with Commonwealth countries and large/emerging economy's due to not being able to strike unilateral trade agreements
    Commonwealth countries are already partnered with major strategic exporters, particularly agricultural exporters, for example the Cairns Group. The results have been rather unimpressive: the group hasn't even been able to negotiate free trade internally! It is the height of self-delusion to believe that all of these major advanced economies are going to sit down and follow the instructions of some pompous old fart who fancies himself as Sir Claude MacDonald.

    the EU also has its own strategic trade agreements: quite a comprehensive one with Canada, and TTIP is expected to be concluded next year.

    And the very idea that the UK might leave the EU on a Wednesday, and pick up 50% of its exports elsewhere on the Thursday, is the height of folly.

    But of course 'notions' like this thrive on tea-leaves, instead of uncompromising, hard data.

    What does seem likely, and well-resourced institutions and political leaders seem to agree, is that a Brexit would damage capital flow into the UK, would cause some FIs to relocate into the EU, and could even potentially lead to British businesses being forced to comply with EU rules without having any input into the creation of said rules.

    But I'm all for it.

    I'd love to see Britain out. I think it would speed up EU integration, and would come with no noticeable setbacks for the EU, as demonstrated in the now-famous 2011 BIS report on this topic.


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    #29
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    gallag wrote: »

    Being in the EU makes trade very difficult with Commonwealth countries and large/emerging economy's due to not being able to strike unilateral trade agreements,


    How so? Can you give a single example where the UK don't have as or more favourable trade terms then what they get through the EU? Put it another way, do you think the UK with 60m population would strike a better deal with the US or China then the EU with 500m. Let's not forget the US has specifically stated they have no interest in striking a separate deal with the UK. Even JP Morgan argue the UK will be a minnow unable to negotiate on a par with the EU. You are exactly wrong on this.
    gallag wrote: »
    ergo the UK is stuck mostly selling the the ever contracting EU, people may be excited to have access to all those new markets with, as you say, billions of people! Think of the possibilities! Imagine a free trade agreement with China, Brazil, India, Africa, Australia, Malaysia or even the USA!
    How is the EU contracting? EU is by a wide margin the largest market in the world. It will have the best trade agreements with the major trading nations of the world - the US and China. It has excellent trading agreements with every other nation. What possible evidence do you have that the UK could hope to achieve the same given all the evidence such as the US government is that the door will be slammed in the face of the UK....

    gallag wrote: »
    But as you say, stupid Brits are probably to busy singing Bratiana rules the waves to a picture of the Queen over their fireplace to analyse the finer nuances of global trade like you so astutely have.

    Bingo! You have it in one. The British that know about international trade, like the Confederation of British Industry, all the Major Finance and Investment houses have all stated what an incredibly stupid thing it would be for Britain to leave the EU. Time and time again those arguing for a Brexit, little Englanders and Redtops to a tee, have shown themselves to be entirely ignorant of not just the finer nuances but basic principles of global trade. They are literally trying to shoot of both feet with their double barrelled shotgun.


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    #30
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    gallag wrote: »
    You don't understand how having a free trade agreement can boost trade with a country?
    I sure do. Lots of other people in the UK do too, which is why we’re a member of the EU.
    gallag wrote: »
    You don't understand how having to impose taxes on a country and that being reciprocated can negatively affect trade?
    Hang on, you were arguing earlier in the thread that the UK could make a fortune by taxing imports from the EU?!?


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    #31
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    micosoft wrote: »
    How so? Can you give a single example where the UK don't have as or more favourable trade terms then what they get through the EU? Put it another way, do you think the UK with 60m population would strike a better deal with the US or China then the EU with 500m. Let's not forget the US has specifically stated they have no interest in striking a separate deal with the UK. Even JP Morgan argue the UK will be a minnow unable to negotiate on a par with the EU. You are exactly wrong on this.


    How is the EU contracting? EU is by a wide margin the largest market in the world. It will have the best trade agreements with the major trading nations of the world - the US and China. It has excellent trading agreements with every other nation. What possible evidence do you have that the UK could hope to achieve the same given all the evidence such as the US government is that the door will be slammed in the face of the UK....




    Bingo! You have it in one. The British that know about international trade, like the Confederation of British Industry, all the Major Finance and Investment houses have all stated what an incredibly stupid thing it would be for Britain to leave the EU. Time and time again those arguing for a Brexit, little Englanders and Redtops to a tee, have shown themselves to be entirely ignorant of not just the finer nuances but basic principles of global trade. They are literally trying to shoot of both feet with their double barrelled shotgun.

    Of course the UK would get trade deals, just look at how the world works outside the EU, Lots of countries have FTA'S even America, look at how many countries the USA has FTA's with, and the UK is not a minnow, it's one of the largest economies in the world, second largest in the EU, believe it or not other countries would be falling over themselves to sell into the UK if the EU decided to create that void.

    The EU is contracting, look at its growth, it's also a slightly larger economy than America by a small margin but if the UK leave that will change, the future looks pretty bleak for the EU, it's simply not poised well to compete on the global stage and military weak that in the coming years the ex soviet States will become destabilised, the UK on the other hand has strong growth for cast and a very secure country due to our military strength, we also have massive untapped resources to make us self sufficient over the coming years, the EU will of course be at the mercy of Russia.

    The EU is dieing, look at the massive rise of the right over recent years! No doubt you will retort it's still insignificant but look at the percentage of growth of the far right in the three leading economies over the last few years.

    Also the Confederation of British Industry you linked to is largely funded by Brussels and if you have been paying attention my main gripe with the EU is that it primary benefits large business at the detriment of the working class, sure big business loves the EU set up! Cheap labour and poor conditions like zero hour contracts have never been so easy to get away with! Them coming out pro EU is not going to suprise anyone, the largest bulk of UK industry is by far small businesses and they are mostly supportive of independence.


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