How many Fianna Fáil Seats?

patmac · 21-02-2011 1:59pm #1

So what do people think, how many seats will Fianna Fáil get in this election. According to Boards it will be 3, current opinion polls have them on 16% which would be 27 seats (166 x 16%) would love it to be the former but I am thinking of having a punt so would be interested in people's opinions.
Would be nice to add a poll but not sure how to do it.

dsmythy · 21-02-2011 2:08pm

Whatever the polls say I think they will get slightly more. The privacy of the voting booth is a funny thing.

gandalf · 21-02-2011 2:10pm

25-30 would be my reckoning based on the RedC polls. I would love it if the boards.ie poll was the more accurate though.

SafeSurfer · 21-02-2011 2:11pm

patmac wrote: »

So what do people think, how many seats will Fianna Fáil get in this election. According to Boards it will be 3, current opinion polls have them on 16% which would be 27 seats (166 x 16%) would love it to be the former but I am thinking of having a punt so would be interested in people's opinions.
Would be nice to add a poll but not sure how to do it.

I think they will be in the low twenties after the election. Transfers will decide the majority of seats filled in the 31st Dail and FF will not get sufficient transfers to win seats even in constituencies where they get a relatively high first preference vote.

I say 23 plus the outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seamus Kirk, so 24 in total.

21-02-2011 2:12pm

16% of votes doesn't mean 16% of seats.

According to bookies (most reliable numbers) they are likely to get about 33 - 36 seats.

Labour are now odds on for under 35 seats and its now likely the FF will get more seats than labour. - That will be a huge defeat for Gilmore.

I'll predict 34 for FF & 31 for Lab.

touts · 21-02-2011 2:18pm

The core fianna fail vote don't do this interweb thing (they think it will never catch just on like those minitel yokes that french bloke was advertising a while ago). In fact many of them simply can't get boards.ie in their isolated farmhouses and retirement homes.

I think they will come in with 20-25 seats but most of those will spend Saturday and Sunday looking over their shoulder after the first count because they will be stuck on ~16% and won't pick up transfers at the rate of the 11-12% candidates behind them on the first count.

MaceFace · 21-02-2011 2:18pm

FF: 28 seats
(And FG: 73, LAB: 30, SF 15, Green: 1)

tribade · 21-02-2011 2:29pm

In most constituencies transfers will be required to get elected and FF are transfer toxic. Only FF's big vote getters will be getting elected.

PinPin · 21-02-2011 2:50pm

Fianna Fail will be in opposition no matter what happens but I say they will get possibly 30 and be slightly behind Labour. I think the Greens will suffer the most with them getting no seats.

In regards to Fianna Fail, there are many, myself included who will vote for Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail has grass roots supports and there are many people who have voted Fianna Fail all their life and won't change. I can see some of these FF supporters not partaking in this election but I think they will come back in the next election.

In regards to the farmhouse remark, we do have access to boards.ie and it is very ignorant to label someone like that based on political beliefs.

jacool · 21-02-2011 2:53pm

PinPin wrote: »

In regards to the farmhouse remark, we do have access to boards.ie and it is very ignorant to label someone like that based on political beliefs.

Yes that is ignorant.
I'm just struggling for a word to describe someone who would vote for FF after what they have done to the country recently, and ignorant doesn't even scratch the surface.

Sir Oxman · 21-02-2011 2:58pm

20 to 25

Besides being transfer toxic most of the FF 'jumper' vote will go to FG as it is 99% guaranteed the local FG candidate(s) will be on the govt side this time around. IMO that vote is the killer for FF this time.

Sir Oxman · 21-02-2011 3:02pm

jacool wrote: »

Yes that is ignorant.
I'm just struggling for a word to describe someone who would vote for FF after what they have done to the country recently, and ignorant doesn't even scratch the surface.

Ah sure, it's only the country they helped ruin.
Nothing to see here, keep the auld partee tradition alive and all that.

In any NORMAL country, they would be annihilated.

steelcityblues · 21-02-2011 3:04pm

In the early 30s unfortunately!

johnmcdnl · 21-02-2011 3:06pm

touts wrote: »

The core fianna fail vote don't do this interweb thing (they think it will never catch just on like those minitel yokes that french bloke was advertising a while ago). In fact many of them simply can't get boards.ie in their isolated farmhouses and retirement homes.

so farmers haven't been hit by this recession at all and haven't realised that FF are the reason that the country is €80 odd billion in debt today...

yes it's true that FF's core voters probably aren't on boards.ie but it's complete ignorance to suggest that just because they don't have the internet that they don't watch the news every now and then and see the pure corruption that is evident in FF

Kristopherus · 21-02-2011 3:08pm

gambiaman wrote: »

Ah sure, it's only the country they helped ruin.
Nothing to see here, keep the auld partee tradition alive and all that.

In any NORMAL country, they would be annihilated.

And hopefully they will here too, despite what the few Deserters of Destiny might do clinging to FF when they should be dropping them like a lump of molten glass:mad:

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 3:10pm

37 seats, you will be surprised at how much undecided will fall back into the fold.

FG 75
Lab 28
SF 12
Oth 13
Greens 1

Think I have them all now.

FG and FF will take most of the undecided voters at the expense of Labour who are starting to struggle because FG strategy has been lot better over past few weeks, but it is conceivable that if FF falter that FG get an overall majority.

PinPin · 21-02-2011 3:12pm

jacool wrote: »

Yes that is ignorant.
I'm just struggling for a word to describe someone who would vote for FF after what they have done to the country recently, and ignorant doesn't even scratch the surface.

There is nothing ignorant in supporting Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail didn't set out to ruin Ireland. They were just in government at the time of the crisis. If we had held a General Election when Bertie stood down and FG got into government, FG would be the ones suffering like FF.

FF was just unlucky in the fact they were in government at the time of the crisis. They were a part of the crisis but ultimately the problem stems from the banks which were independent institutions to the government.

The banks caused the problems yet we still use these banks as if they are innocent. I was reading in the Sunday Independent yesterday about a TSB branch. The banks customers were treating the bank staff like old friends. I am not attacking TSB but it is probably the same upnand down the country in many different banks. People are still going to these banks to have a chat with the teller or the manager even thought they were a part of the crisis.

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media. He treated the media like an enemy and as a result the media took a dislike to him which subsequently led to Fianna Fail becoming demonised. Charlie Haughey was a worse leader than Cowen yet he did not destroy Fianna Fail like Cowen. This could be due to the fact, that Haughey while he was a crook he was charismatic and embraced the media.

jdooley28 · 21-02-2011 3:14pm

they'll get around 35 id say labour about 30. SF 10-15, greens maybe 2 if they are luck. FG 70+ and the rest indepentants with joe higgins and maybe another lefty thrown in. It probably won't happen but i keep thinking labour will be in the opposition again.

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 3:16pm

PinPin wrote: »

There is nothing ignorant in supporting Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail didn't set out to ruin Ireland. They were just in government at the time of the crisis. If we had held a General Election when Bertie stood down and FG got into government, FG would be the ones suffering like FF.

FF was just unlucky in the fact they were in government at the time of the crisis. They were a part of the crisis but ultimately the problem stems from the banks which were independent institutions to the government.

The banks caused the problems yet we still use these banks as if they are innocent. I was reading in the Sunday Independent yesterday about a TSB branch. The banks customers were treating the bank staff like old friends. I am not attacking TSB but it is probably the same upnand down the country in many different banks. People are still going to these banks to have a chat with the teller or the manager even thought they were a part of the crisis.

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media. He treated the media like an enemy and as a result the media took a dislike to him which subsequently led to Fianna Fail becoming demonised. Charlie Haughey was a worse leader than Cowen yet he did not destroy Fianna Fail like Cowen. This could be due to the fact, that Haughey while he was a crook he was charismatic and embraced the media.

This sounds like a certain American president when he said 'I am not a crook'. Enough said!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jacool · 21-02-2011 3:17pm

PinPin wrote: »

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media. QUOTE]
Ireland also suffered due to Brian Cowen's relationship with the people in Anglo.

DonegalD · 21-02-2011 3:40pm

Up here we are different as they say!! Our biggest problem is that, although people want to punish Fianna Fail for what they have done, the alternative in Donegal is much worse. In south west, a FG candidate who has one foot in the grave, and two turkey cocks for LAB and SF. I doubt 'Calamity Coughlan' will be making her way up to the Dail once more.

Quandary · 21-02-2011 4:08pm

PinPin wrote: »

FF was just unlucky in the fact they were in government at the time of the crisis.

I suppose they had absolutely nothing to do with regulating the banks? I suppose they had no control over creating/amending legislation which would reign in the out of control property market?

To call them unlucky is either blinkered insanity or extraordinary naivety.

PinPin wrote: »

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media and Seanie Fitz.

FYP here i think.

PinPin wrote: »

He treated the media like an enemy and as a result the media took a dislike to him which subsequently led to Fianna Fail becoming demonised.

FF suffered because the vast majority of Irish people now see them for the self serving rats they are.

PinPin wrote: »

Charlie Haughey was a worse leader than Cowen yet he did not destroy Fianna Fail like Cowen. This could be due to the fact, that Haughey while he was a crook he was charismatic and embraced the media.

Cowen did not destroy FF. The party simply corrupted their way into failure, Cowen just provided the public with a single figure to hate because he was the party leader.

Apologies for dragging the thread off topic...

Noreen1 · 21-02-2011 4:26pm

Quandary wrote: »

I suppose they had absolutely nothing to do with regulating the banks? I suppose they had no control over creating/amending legislation which would reign in the out of control property market?

To call them unlucky is either blinkered insanity or extraordinary naivety.

FYP here i think.

FF suffered because the vast majority of Irish people now see them for the self serving rats they are.

Cowen did not destroy FF. The party simply corrupted their way into failure, Cowen just provided the public with a single figure to hate because he was the party leader.

Apologies for dragging the thread off topic...

+1. Cowen and Lenihan, between them, have left this Country in a mess that will take years, maybe decades, to work our way out of.:mad:

And let's not forget, that the "decent" local FF candidates, together with the Greens and Healy-Rae and Co. supported them throughout, in the full knowledge that the electorate were desperate for an election.............

While we're at it, let's not forget, either, that Enda supported Cowen et al in continuing to guarantee Anglo, without knowing what the Bill being visited on the taxpayer was likely to be! I posted on Boards at the time that I wouldn't forget that - and I try to keep my word.:D

De Dannan · 21-02-2011 4:50pm

Auctionmcd wrote: »

37 seats, you will be surprised at how much undecided will fall back into the fold.

.

I would love to know where these people have been for the past three years

swiss · 21-02-2011 5:04pm

PinPin wrote: »

There is nothing ignorant in supporting Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail didn't set out to ruin Ireland. They were just in government at the time of the crisis. If we had held a General Election when Bertie stood down and FG got into government, FG would be the ones suffering like FF.

FF was just unlucky in the fact they were in government at the time of the crisis. They were a part of the crisis but ultimately the problem stems from the banks which were independent institutions to the government.

The banks caused the problems yet we still use these banks as if they are innocent. I was reading in the Sunday Independent yesterday about a TSB branch. The banks customers were treating the bank staff like old friends. I am not attacking TSB but it is probably the same upnand down the country in many different banks. People are still going to these banks to have a chat with the teller or the manager even thought they were a part of the crisis.

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media. He treated the media like an enemy and as a result the media took a dislike to him which subsequently led to Fianna Fail becoming demonised. Charlie Haughey was a worse leader than Cowen yet he did not destroy Fianna Fail like Cowen. This could be due to the fact, that Haughey while he was a crook he was charismatic and embraced the media.

I'm afraid I have to take issue with this stance.

Yes, Fianna Fáil were in government at the time of the crisis. They were also in government before the crisis. This is not a co-incidence. As much as the Fianna Fáil machine would have people believe that we were simply caught in the middle of an international crisis, the truth is that there is a significant national aspect to what is going on. As the lead party of Government, Fianna Fáil could have curtailed this significantly if they had the competence or will to do so. They didn't, and now people are suffering as a result.

Shifting responsibility for the multiple failures of governance onto the banking sector is, I hate to say, a typical strategy for a party that cannot admit its own role. Yes, the banks are also responsible. Their behaviour has been scandalous and were this a hundred years ago, instead of retiring on lavish pensions, senior management of these banks would be facing a firing squad. That the banking situation is still unresolved since the crisis precipitated itself nearly 3 years ago is yet another parlous situation, to be added to the litany of ineptitude for which Fianna Fáil (and in this instance the Greens) should be held accountable.

If I had to pick a defining moment from a shameful period of abysmal governance and mismanagement, it would be last November when the IMF entered this country. This after a series of denials from senior FF ministers, which rank alongside those famously spouted by our old friend the Iraqi information minister, in that now deposed regime.

I won't get started on Charlie Haughey, but Cowens big failure in my view was his culpability in the present crisis by way of his ministerial roles, especially in finance. Sure, he was arrogant and disdainful of media or anyone who dared question him, but these were the least of his negative traits.

I cannot fathom why anyone, beyond dyed-in-the-wool, rabid, indoctrinated Fianna Fáil faithful could countenance voting for this party in the next election. They've brought this country to ruin, and one in 6 people would still vote for them if the polls are to be believed. If this pans out, it is likely they'll get between 25 to 30 seats in the next Dáil. Absolutely incredible.

patmac · 21-02-2011 5:06pm

Auctionmcd wrote: »

37 seats, you will be surprised at how much undecided will fall back into the fold.

Christ I hope you are wrong, I would give up on politics and on the Irish people if this happened. I have voted Fianna Fáil all my life and am disgusted by the way they have ruined this country.
I am going to be optimistic and have a punt on them getting around 15 seats I still have a feeling that they are going to get a hammering at this election, if they get over 20 seats the country should be ashamed of itself.

two wheels good · 21-02-2011 10:23pm

PinPin wrote: »

They were just in government at the time of the crisis.

FF was just unlucky in the fact they were in government at the time of the crisis. They were a part of the crisis but ultimately the problem stems from the banks which were independent institutions to the government.

Fianna Fail also suffered due to Brian Cowens relationship with the media. He treated the media like an enemy and as a result the media took a dislike to him which subsequently led to Fianna Fail becoming demonised.

This is utter nonsense! I don't know where start - cronyism, regulators asleep at the wheel, no meetings with regulators, Bertie: "I wish someone hadda told me about de banks", failure to dampen the building boom when warned....

Have a read of "Ship of Fools" by Fintan O'Toole. It will open your eyes to the truth.

two wheels good · 21-02-2011 10:29pm

swiss wrote: »

I cannot fathom why anyone, beyond dyed-in-the-wool, rabid, indoctrinated Fianna Fáil faithful could countenance voting for this party in the next election. They've brought this country to ruin....

Hear, Hear.
"Your Ballot: Better to spoil it than to Fianna Fail it"

3ndahalfof6 · 21-02-2011 10:41pm

As was said before the staunch FF voters may well stay indoors instead of giving there vote to another party,

I give FF 19 -22 seats there is still 4 days to go and I think Labour will get some momentum going and take a lot of the undecided votes, if for no other reason but to try to make FG have to answer to someone,

I would not like to see FG get in with the independents or would I.

leincar · 21-02-2011 10:58pm

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong.

Anyhoo, here goes.

Fianna Fáil have already given up on this election. For the first time in their history they are not standing enough candidates to get a majority. In the 43 constituencies they are only standing 75 candidates. In dublin they are standing 17 candidates in 12 constituencies. That leaves 58 candidates in 31 constituencies.

I'll start with Dublin. In 5 constituencies of Dublin they have 2 candidates in each of them. They are; Dublin Central, North, South West, West and Dun Laoighaire. These are all four seat constituencies where they would need 20% of first preference votes to get one elected, and would need 35% to have a fighting chance of two. Right now, I cannot see them getting more than 12 or 13% in the Dublin region with the outside possibility of 17 or 18% in Dublin West. None of these percentages will be enough to get a candidate over the line. They would be extremely reliant on transfers. In this election they are transfer toxic. The level of transfer to Fianna Fail will be very small. Fianna Fáil realise this themselves.

That leaves 7 constituencies. In all of them they are already written off or an outside chance of the last seat. Once again, because of the lack of transferability, I don't see them getting any seat, even in the five seat constituencies of Dublin South and South Central.

So for Dublin I predict on a bad day none, on a good day three. These three would be; Lenihan(West), Corrigan(South) and Curran(Mid-West)

Now for the rest of the country. There remains 58 candidates standing in 31 constituencies. In 4 of these constituencies they are standing 3 candidates in each, in 19 constituencies they are standing 2 candidates in each and in the remaining 8, they are standing 1 candidate in each constituency.

Firstly, Fianna Fáil know that there is no constituency where they can take two seats. They realised this probably to late for them. We know this as for example Ned O'Keefe and Noel O'Flynn were unceremoniously asked to retire.

So now we are down to a max of 31 candidates for 31 seats.
Taking the constituencies with 3 candidates in each of them, Carlow/Kilkenny, Galway West, Laois/Offaly, and Longford/Westmeath. There is one seat in each constituency for Fianna Fáil. So they are off the mark.

Now we have 19 constituencies with 2 candidates in each. The definites here(purely my opinion) are Cavan/Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Donegal South-West, Limerick City, Louth*, Mayo. That gives them 6 more seats including Kirk in Louth who is automatically re-elected.

Finally there are the 8 constituencies with 1 candidate in each. Of these constituencies Waterford is probably the only definite.

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.

So overall I would predict on a bad day eleven seats and on a good day, and I think it would have to be a very good day twenty five seats.

I honestly think at this late stage Fianna Fáil are going to have a bad day.

wee truck big driver · 21-02-2011 11:05pm

gambiaman wrote: »

Ah sure, it's only the country they helped ruin.
Nothing to see here, keep the auld partee tradition alive and all that.

In any NORMAL country, they would be annihilated.

if ireland was a normal country people wouldnt have taken out loans they couldnt afford for things they didnt need. if ireland was a normal country people would nt have taken out mortages for houses that where twice the price they shouldnt. if ireland was a normal country people wouldnt have believed the media bullsh1t about the celtic tiger. if ireland was a normal country people would have realised ireland is a tiny country isolated from the rest of europe and with no natural resources and would have realised we where living a lifestyle which we had no reason to expect and no way to mantain

wee truck big driver · 21-02-2011 11:10pm

two wheels good wrote: »

This is utter nonsense! I don't know where start - cronyism, regulators asleep at the wheel, no meetings with regulators, Bertie: "I wish someone hadda told me about de banks", failure to dampen the building boom when warned....

Have a read of "Ship of Fools" by Fintan O'Toole. It will open your eyes to the truth.

i think fintan o toole would get more votes for fianna fail i know i would do the complet opposite of whatever he suggests

skippy5 · 21-02-2011 11:18pm

two wheels good wrote: »

This is utter nonsense! I don't know where start - cronyism, regulators asleep at the wheel, no meetings with regulators, Bertie: "I wish someone hadda told me about de banks", failure to dampen the building boom when warned....

Have a read of "Ship of Fools" by Fintan O'Toole. It will open your eyes to the truth.

Would not take much notice of what he said, he is in hiding after making a complete fool of himself

Burnfort Boy · 21-02-2011 11:39pm

What's the betting on a FG and FF coalition.

leincar · 21-02-2011 11:43pm

LoanShark wrote: »

Mary will keep her seat,She may be the last to be elected, But she'll get in..

I'll be voting in Donegal on Friday, I'd say we'll vote Dinny,Mary and Pearce.. I would die with shame if Frank the Tank were to get in..

Nationally, I think FF will get near the 40 mark, (somewhere between 35 and 40)...And I would not be surprised if needed, FF were to support the Government..(Paddy Power has FF/FG government @ 9/1)

I also think that, a single party government would not survive more than three years.

No chance. That means just a possibility of three up to a maximum of eight constituencies without a FF TD.

LoanShark · 21-02-2011 11:51pm

leincar wrote: »

No chance. That means just a possibility of three up to a maximum of eight constituencies without a FF TD.

We'll all know come Saturday/Sunday..

CoalBucket · 21-02-2011 11:56pm

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong.

Anyhoo, here goes.

Fianna Fáil have already given up on this election. For the first time in their history they are not standing enough candidates to get a majority. In the 43 constituencies they are only standing 75 candidates. In dublin they are standing 17 candidates in 12 constituencies. That leaves 58 candidates in 31 constituencies.

I'll start with Dublin. In 5 constituencies of Dublin they have 2 candidates in each of them. They are; Dublin Central, North, South West, West and Dun Laoighaire. These are all four seat constituencies where they would need 20% of first preference votes to get one elected, and would need 35% to have a fighting chance of two. Right now, I cannot see them getting more than 12 or 13% in the Dublin region with the outside possibility of 17 or 18% in Dublin West. None of these percentages will be enough to get a candidate over the line. They would be extremely reliant on transfers. In this election they are transfer toxic. The level of transfer to Fianna Fail will be very small. Fianna Fáil realise this themselves.

That leaves 7 constituencies. In all of them they are already written off or an outside chance of the last seat. Once again, because of the lack of transferability, I don't see them getting any seat, even in the five seat constituencies of Dublin South and South Central.

So for Dublin I predict on a bad day none, on a good day three. These three would be; Lenihan(West), Corrigan(South) and Curran(Mid-West)

Now for the rest of the country. There remains 58 candidates standing in 31 constituencies. In 4 of these constituencies they are standing 3 candidates in each, in 19 constituencies they are standing 2 candidates in each and in the remaining 8, they are standing 1 candidate in each constituency.

Firstly, Fianna Fáil know that there is no constituency where they can take two seats. They realised this probably to late for them. We know this as for example Ned O'Keefe and Noel O'Flynn were unceremoniously asked to retire.

So now we are down to a max of 31 candidates for 31 seats.
Taking the constituencies with 3 candidates in each of them, Carlow/Kilkenny, Galway West, Laois/Offaly, and Longford/Westmeath. There is one seat in each constituency for Fianna Fáil. So they are off the mark.

Now we have 19 constituencies with 2 candidates in each. The definites here(purely my opinion) are Cavan/Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Donegal South-West, Limerick City, Louth*, Mayo. That gives them 6 more seats including Kirk in Louth who is automatically re-elected.

Finally there are the 8 constituencies with 1 candidate in each. Of these constituencies Waterford is probably the only definite.

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.
.

I haven't got a clue if you are right but it is a very reasoned analysis.

Absurdum · 22-02-2011 12:00am

LoanShark wrote: »

Nationally, I think FF will get near the 40 mark, (somewhere between 35 and 40)

That would mean around half their candidates getting elected - I honestly don't see this happening, not in a million years.

I think SF are going to surprise a lot of people on Friday, I don't think 20+ seats is beyond them.

3ndahalfof6 · 22-02-2011 7:25pm

LoanShark wrote: »

People are seriously pi$$ed at FF and the other main parties at the way things have gone, But The people are also smart enough to know that the policies that SF offer are not the best route for the country to get back on track..Seriously, how would it look internationally for Ireland to be seen as a country that fails to pay back the loans that we have recieved and to screw the investors that showed confidence in us and our plans for the future..The idea from SF that we can dip into the pension pot and help kick start the country again is a massive risk that would damage this country even further if it goes wrong..

I dont think SF will exceed 12 seats.
I would still stand by the idea that FF will get high 30's / 40.
Labour will also come in on Par as FF about 35/40 ish.
FG has it all to loose..

so your only giving FG about 58 seats if this is the case I think your the only one in the country who thinks so.

if seats of 35-40 go to FF or LAB it will be at the expense of either party not at the expense of FG,

so either LAB will have 35-40 giving FF about 11 or FF get 35-40 giving LAB about 18,

but it is possible both FF and LAB will loose out to SF giving FG the outcome they want, a bigger spread of the vote between the other parties fighting for the scraps.

Elmer Blooker · 22-02-2011 8:19pm

steelcityblues wrote: »

In the early 30s unfortunately!

I have to agree with you , the cute hoor soldiers of destiny will do a lot better than expected. Remember the divorce referendum in 1995? It was looking like a landslide yes only a few days before the referendum but 49.9% came out and voted no. The rural chip on the shoulder "what has that lot up in Dublin ever done for us" brigade hasn't gone away you know.

Liam Byrne · 22-02-2011 9:03pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The rural chip on the shoulder "what has that lot up in Dublin ever done for us" brigade hasn't gone away you know.

What does the location that people live in have to do with anything ?

The biggest FF con-men for the last few years were from Dublin : Ahern, Lawlor & Burke being the ones that spring to mind!

Slick50 · 23-02-2011 12:29am

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong....

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.

So overall I would predict on a bad day eleven seats and on a good day, and I think it would have to be a very good day twenty five seats.

I honestly think at this late stage Fianna Fáil are going to have a bad day.

I hope your right. According to paddypowers constituancy by constituancy odds, they're heading for 26 seats. Other than FF and SF seats, their odds are suprisingly in agreement with the boards poll.

I'm banking on them not getting twenty seats, currently on 9/2 with powers. Though only 2/5 on over twentyfive seats.

ninebeanrows · 23-02-2011 1:48am

25-30 for me.

Going to very hard for them to get above 30.

Just ran through all the constituencies.

This is around where they will get and this is assuming they get around 16-18% of the vote. If they only poll nationally around 14% and with the toxicity of the transfers they could well get below the dreaded 20 seats.

Astonishing really.

Even a bounce now leaves then at 18% max. They cant get more than 32 seats with 18% of the vote considering they arent a transfer friendly party like LAbour.

Nehaxak · 23-02-2011 4:01am

Can't see FF getting any more than 5 seats, guess we'll find out soon enough for sure though.

Auctionmcd · 23-02-2011 10:23am

De Dannan wrote: »

I would love to know where these people have been for the past three years

This is traditionally the case where FF voters although disillusioned with them will come out in force to support them for fear of a FG majority.
FF constantly vote for the Party and rarely for the politics (Their core voters I mean, which are a substantial amount)

I think in past years FF could have ran a goat for some areas and they would have elected it.

nevsky · 26-02-2011 11:04am

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong.

Anyhoo, here goes.

Fianna Fáil have already given up on this election. For the first time in their history they are not standing enough candidates to get a majority. In the 43 constituencies they are only standing 75 candidates. In dublin they are standing 17 candidates in 12 constituencies. That leaves 58 candidates in 31 constituencies.

I'll start with Dublin. In 5 constituencies of Dublin they have 2 candidates in each of them. They are; Dublin Central, North, South West, West and Dun Laoighaire. These are all four seat constituencies where they would need 20% of first preference votes to get one elected, and would need 35% to have a fighting chance of two. Right now, I cannot see them getting more than 12 or 13% in the Dublin region with the outside possibility of 17 or 18% in Dublin West. None of these percentages will be enough to get a candidate over the line. They would be extremely reliant on transfers. In this election they are transfer toxic. The level of transfer to Fianna Fail will be very small. Fianna Fáil realise this themselves.

That leaves 7 constituencies. In all of them they are already written off or an outside chance of the last seat. Once again, because of the lack of transferability, I don't see them getting any seat, even in the five seat constituencies of Dublin South and South Central.

So for Dublin I predict on a bad day none, on a good day three. These three would be; Lenihan(West), Corrigan(South) and Curran(Mid-West)

Now for the rest of the country. There remains 58 candidates standing in 31 constituencies. In 4 of these constituencies they are standing 3 candidates in each, in 19 constituencies they are standing 2 candidates in each and in the remaining 8, they are standing 1 candidate in each constituency.

Firstly, Fianna Fáil know that there is no constituency where they can take two seats. They realised this probably to late for them. We know this as for example Ned O'Keefe and Noel O'Flynn were unceremoniously asked to retire.

So now we are down to a max of 31 candidates for 31 seats.
Taking the constituencies with 3 candidates in each of them, Carlow/Kilkenny, Galway West, Laois/Offaly, and Longford/Westmeath. There is one seat in each constituency for Fianna Fáil. So they are off the mark.

Now we have 19 constituencies with 2 candidates in each. The definites here(purely my opinion) are Cavan/Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Donegal South-West, Limerick City, Louth*, Mayo. That gives them 6 more seats including Kirk in Louth who is automatically re-elected.

Finally there are the 8 constituencies with 1 candidate in each. Of these constituencies Waterford is probably the only definite.

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.

So overall I would predict on a bad day eleven seats and on a good day, and I think it would have to be a very good day twenty five seats.

I honestly think at this late stage Fianna Fáil are going to have a bad day.

It looks as if your analysis of Fianna Fail was spot on.

leincar · 26-02-2011 11:16am

Thank you sir. Happy to oblige. Thank God I may be right.

Absurdum · 26-02-2011 11:26am

Looks like they have lost their 2 seats in Dublin North, horray!

Noreen1 · 26-02-2011 11:27am

From the Donegal forum, thanks to cosanostra:

cosanostra wrote: »

Acording to oceanfm Tally figures for 41 boxes (Donegal electoral area) - Coughlan 1854, Doherty 2213, McGinley 1955, Pringle 2344.
its going to be 5 or 6 this evening till 1st count

It looks like it's going to depend on transfers between Coughlan and O'Donnell in Donegal Southwest, which leaves them in with a chance of a seat.
I hope it's not Coughlan, if that's the case.

Absurdum · 26-02-2011 11:30am

I have mixed feelings about Coughlan and her seat, at least if she holds it, we know where she is, if she's set free in the world, who knows what havoc she could cause. Containment ftw.

Noreen1 · 26-02-2011 11:38am

Absurdum wrote: »

I have mixed feelings about Coughlan and her seat, at least if she holds it, we know where she is, if she's set free in the world, who knows what havoc she could cause. Containment ftw.

You have no sympathy for the people of Donegal Southwest, so!:p:D:D

How many Fianna Fáil Seats?

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