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UK Elections - Exit polls / First impressions / Constituency Results

13567…19

Comments

  • #102
    Euro_Kraut
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    Wow Labour taking a hammering in the North East!! This brings Sunderland South into play.


  • #103
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    efb wrote: »
    Washington and Sunderland West: Lab Hold
    Rated as the 11th safest Labour seat in England, 28th in the UK and an 11.6 swing to the conservatives.

    Massive swing, bigger than the swing that went to Labour in 1997. Having said that, it's easy to do a protest vote for the conservatives when you don't expect them to win. Worth noting that a swing like that replicated nationwide would give the conservatives a whack of a majority and the biggest national swing in 65 years.

    I know people are asking about ukip and the BNP. A national swing won't affect them getting a seat one way or the other so basically no-one knows. Definitely a swing one way or the other in places like Sunderland won't give us any idea of a possible rise in votes for these parties in places like Buckingham, Barking, Stoke, the main targets for those two parties, or Brighton Pavilion, being targeted by the Greens. In these constituencies, they're hoping to buck any national trend and get a vote that is a local exception.


  • #104
    efb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    PM David Cameron, time to sleep


  • #105
    scudzilla
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,944 ✭✭✭✭scudzilla


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    What can people be thinking over there? 1900 people voting for the BNP like.

    That's why living in a democracy is great, you have the chance to either vote for them...or not


  • #106
    loldog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 634 ✭✭✭loldog


    sceptre wrote: »
    Having said that, it's easy to do a protest vote for the conservatives when you don't expect them to win.

    Exactly. We need a result from a marginal seat to get a better idea.

    .


  • #107
    rameire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,184 ✭✭✭rameire


    Question
    is it one constituency one seat
    so roughly 1 seat per 55,000.

    and in realtion to the swing from labour to conservative, the count should be well in favour for conservative and give them a majority gov, i am guessing
    con 331
    labour 232
    lib dem 57
    other 30

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • #108
    Euro_Kraut
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    I suppose its possibile that the the swing against LAB will be biggest in the places where they have safe seats. Voter might be inclinded to give them bloddy nose, safe in the knowledge that they will still win the seat.

    Very odd to see a 5% swing from Lab to BNP.


  • #109
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Aye Tory (working) Majority, high end of 320-330


  • #110
    dreamer_ire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭dreamer_ire


    Somewhat off topic but counting in Foyle and East Derry postponed due to a security scare.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8666316.stm


  • #111
    steelcityblues
    Registered Users Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    Surely no way Labour can get over 250 seats based on this swing!?

    False exit polls I think!


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  • #112
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Suspect device in Derry near count centre


  • #113
    nkay1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    Sunderland South going to be close apparently. Could tell a lot.


  • #114
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Lewisham council have kept the polls open after 10pm, due to massive turnout!


  • #115
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    loldog wrote: »
    I don't see why, if people don't turn up on time it's their own fault.
    There's been an inconsistency in the way the returning officers have treated queues. Up to a few minutes ago, people were still queuing outside in Ealing and were apparently going to be allowed to vote. In Sheffield, the returning officer closed the doors and the polls. In other places, they got smart and let people into the room to queue to vote and closed the doors.

    What appears to have happened is that far more people turned up to vote in some centres than were expected. Some polling stations couldn't cope and hence people were queueing for a long time, some past 10pm.

    The regulation in UK elections is that the doors should be closed by 10 and anyone inside the room queueing at 10 can vote. The smarter returning officers obeyed the letter of the rules by letting people in, slamming the door and letting people vote. It's the inconsistency that people will complain about. The complaints will be reasonable on that basis, whether they'll be upheld is another matter.


  • #116
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Sunderland central

    Lab 19,495
    Tory 12,770
    LB 7,191

    Turnout 57%

    Swing to Torys 4.8%


  • #117
    nkay1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    Jesus, not even close. 7,000 odd difference.


  • #118
    cruiserweight
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,307 ✭✭✭cruiserweight


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Sunderland South going to be close apparently. Could tell a lot.

    Labour hold easily


  • #119
    _blank_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 41,926 ✭✭✭✭_blank_


    -5% Lab
    +5% Con though


  • #120
    dreamer_ire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭dreamer_ire


    sceptre wrote: »
    There's been an inconsistency in the way the returning officers have treated queues. Up to a few minutes ago, people were still queuing outside in Ealing and were apparently going to be allowed to vote. In Sheffield, the returning officer closed the doors and the polls. In other places, they got smart and let people into the room to queue to vote and closed the doors.

    What appears to have happened is that far more people turned up to vote in some centres than were expected. Some polling stations couldn't cope and hence people were queueing for a long time, some past 10pm.

    The regulation in UK elections is that the doors should be closed by 10 and anyone inside the room queueing at 10 can vote. The smarter returning officers obeyed the letter of the rules by letting people in, slamming the door and letting people vote. It's the inconsistency that people will complain about. The complaints will be reasonable on that basis, whether they'll be upheld is another matter.

    If Mandy's point about Labour voters coming out later in the day to vote I'd imagine a strong challenge could be made. Not sure how provable it could be.

    Again BNP poll nearly 2000 votes.


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  • #121
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    What can people be thinking over there? 1900 people voting for the BNP like.

    It really is sad.


    Still nothing important to come through yet tbh, safe Labour seats will obviously have a bigger swing.


  • #122
    nkay1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    Anyone else get the feeling all Conservatives who're going to be on tv or radio have been told to repeat "Labour have been rejected by the people" over and over again!


  • #123
    Frank Spencer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,168 ✭✭✭Frank Spencer


    What is it about election results that's so gripping?

    I love it!


  • #124
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Insurrection in Sheffield, barred voters not letting the returning officer out of the building!


  • #125
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    Euro_Kraut wrote: »
    I suppose its possibile that the the swing against LAB will be biggest in the places where they have safe seats. Voter might be inclinded to give them bloddy nose, safe in the knowledge that they will still win the seat.
    Yeah, I've said the same and I agree. Who knows really, especially with Sunderland Central only giving a 5% swing to the conservatives, which projected nationally would give them rather less than 300.

    Dangerous to project a few local seats nationally - there's enough variance in Sunderland on its own to show the danger of that. Even the BNP vote is 1% or 5% in Sunderland, depending on the individual constituency.
    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Anyone else get the feeling all Conservatives who're going to be on tv or radio have been told to repeat "Labour have been rejected by the people" over and over again!
    Oh completely, just what I was thinking in post 32, glad it's not just me:)

    Labour's David Miliband is now on the BBC pushing the view that if you have an overall majority, you have the right to a monopoly on power, if you don't, you don't. Precisely what I reckoned they were pushing towards earlier, they're all performing to form based on the script they've been handed. And Lim Dems half-grinning despite a poor exit poll, willing to do a deal but saying nothing.

    Unless the exit poll is dramatically wrong and the conservatives get an overall majority, these are the opposing views you'll hear for the next four days from the parties.
    Frank Spencer wrote: »
    What is it about election results that's so gripping?

    I love it!
    It's like the only watchable part of the eurovision multiplied by 10. But with better singers.


  • #126
    cruiserweight
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,307 ✭✭✭cruiserweight


    Des wrote: »
    -5% Lab
    +5% Con though

    The lines were re-drawn for this constituency and now included areas that are more strongly Tory.

    It is not to suprising to see magnified swings in areas that are seen as safe seats IMO. If you are a supporter of a party who has the large majority your incentive to go vote is not as large as a supporter of a minority party as the result is almost a fore gone conclusion. It is to difficult to tell how it will all pan out with only 3 seats declared


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  • #127
    steelcityblues
    Registered Users Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    mike65 wrote: »
    Insurrection in Sheffield, barred voters not letting the returning officer out of the building!

    Do Mandy and co. have their hands involved in this mess?


  • #128
    Euro_Kraut
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    dreamer_ire wrote: »
    Again BNP poll nearly 2000 votes.

    Bizarrely they polled exaclty 1,913 votes in the last two constituencies.


  • #129
    dreamer_ire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭dreamer_ire


    Some have run out of ballot papers???


  • #130
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    Do Mandy and co. have their hands involved in this mess?

    Mandy was on the BBC condeming the failure to allow voting ("just get them inside the station and then close the doors" he said)


  • #131
    Eliot Rosewater
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭Eliot Rosewater


    This number 326 is constantly being put out there, but with Sinn Fein abstaining 323 should do the job (point may have been mentioned)

    The BBC presenter took a very dim view of DUP demands for NI favoritism!


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  • #132
    greendom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,382 ✭✭✭✭greendom


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    Do Mandy and co. have their hands involved in this mess?

    No, The Electoral Commission is completely separate and independent from the parliament

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/


  • #133
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    Do Mandy and co. have their hands involved in this mess?
    Doubt it - they're not players there. Nick Clegg went to the polling stations to apologise to the people who couldn't vote (not that it's anything like his fault) - it's his constituency.

    I assumed you meant part responsible for the blockade/sit in - as greendom said, they don't run the election.

    Some constituencies being short ballot papers is actually shocking. That's beyond incompetent.


  • #134
    steelcityblues
    Registered Users Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    mike65 wrote: »
    Mandy was on the BBC condeming the failure to allow voting ("just get them inside the station and then close the doors" he said)

    More voters nearly always favour opposition parties though! Something extra-fishy here I would think.


  • #135
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Eliot Rosewater wrote: »
    This number 226 is constantly being put out there, but with Sinn Fein abstaining 223 should do the job (point may have been mentioned)

    The BBC presenter took a very dim view of DUP demands for NI favoritism!

    Not 326? Can the exit polls be so wrong that a swing of 21 seats to Conservatives?


  • #136
    Fluffybums
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 362 ✭✭Fluffybums


    Very sad that polling stations cannot cope with a high turn out, and high would appear to be 50-60%. I think normal turnout is around 40-45%.

    In fairness, if you don't get home from work until 7-8 you may not be able to get to the voting station until 8:30 and if there is a long queue then I guess you might not be able to get in.


  • #137
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Scuffles in Islington*! Green party talking of a challange.

    *very polite scuffles of course


  • #138
    Sergeant
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,362 ✭✭✭Sergeant


    Paxman still being the consummate professional.


  • #139
    Euro_Kraut
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    Eliot Rosewater wrote: »
    This number 226 is constantly being put out there, but with Sinn Fein abstaining 223 should do the job (point may have been mentioned)

    +100


  • #140
    madmaggie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭madmaggie


    Excellent coverage on the net on BBC World News on Facebook. Going to be a long night for ex-pats. I think Cameron will scrape in.:cool:


  • #141
    steelcityblues
    Registered Users Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    Milliband not giving an inch!


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  • #142
    Eliot Rosewater
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭Eliot Rosewater


    My bad. :D


  • #143
    greendom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,382 ✭✭✭✭greendom


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    More voters nearly always favour opposition parties though! Something extra-fishy here I would think.

    Absolutely not - just an administrative cock-up.


  • #144
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    madmaggie wrote: »
    I think Cameron will scrape in.:cool:

    Agreed, with the help of the Libdems + the UUP (or DUP) :D


  • #145
    steelcityblues
    Registered Users Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    greendom wrote: »
    Absolutely not - just an administrative cock-up.

    This appears to be happening in several areas of the country though.


  • #146
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Camelot wrote: »
    Agreed, with the help of the Libdems + the UUP (or DUP) :D

    If they could get the LibDems they won't go near the Unionists.


  • #147
    Sergeant
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,362 ✭✭✭Sergeant


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    Milliband not giving an inch!

    Milliband is a sneaky chap. A lot spoken, very little said.


  • #148
    dreamer_ire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭dreamer_ire


    Camelot wrote: »
    Agreed, with the help of the Libdems + the UUP (or DUP) :D

    I'm not sure how much use UUP will be and I wonder whether Cameron can get into bed with both the UUP and the DUP given their differences on the devolution of policing etc


  • #149
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    steelcityblues wrote: »
    This appears to be happening in several areas of the country though.
    Yeah, but the increase in voters is across the country. The "fault" (in a general sense) is also with the people who voted later but they're also basing it on what they managed to do last time - one expects to be able to vote if you arrive with 20 minutes to go. I rarely turn up to polling stations with more than five minutes or ten minutes to go, I'm usually aware that there might be a problem. The obvious solution though would have been precisely what Mandelson mentioned - close the doors as you're supposed to do but get them all in the hall so they can vote. It's never arisen before as a problem so I suspect that the returning officers didn't really know what to do. It may be easier to ascribe it to malice but it's easier to explain and more likely explainable by stupidity (insert inexperience, idiocy, whatever you like).

    And while an increase in voters typically suits the opposition, this election has been so close that everyone knows there's a greater chance that their vote could count and make a difference. That gets an increase in voters for all parties. It's been almost two decades since people have had that feeling about their vote in a national UK election and that makes a difference.


  • #150
    Sergeant
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,362 ✭✭✭Sergeant


    The initial exit polls from NI show no seat for the UUP.


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  • #151
    Euro_Kraut
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    dreamer_ire wrote: »
    I'm not sure how much use UUP will be and I wonder whether Cameron can get into bed with both the UUP and the DUP given their differences on the devolution of policing etc

    UUP are, effectively, the Tory party in NI.

    Plus they will be lucky to win 1 seat. I can't see them being a big consideration. The DUP hold all the aces at the moments.


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