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Upcoming Iranian Nuclear talks.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭SamHarris


    The same UN that the US et al ignored when they went to war against Iraq in 2003? The same UN that the the US shields the state of Israel from regularly. Such hypocrisy.

    The US and co like to throw about terms such as 'the will of international community' and other such faux displays of global unity. You will note that the non-aligned movement (which makes up the majority of the states on the planet) often do not subscribe to what the US describes as breaches of international norms.

    Finally we get to the heart of your argument!

    You dont think Iran should have to listen or abide by international rules because others ignore it. I disagree. I think the mission of preventing more people having nuclear weapons is far more important than people complaining about things being unfair.

    The international community disagrees, so its a moot point on your part.

    Something you will just have to deal with no doubt.
    When nations such as the US make demands of other countries under the threat of war the burden of proof that the risk is real and all alternatives have been exhausted falls with those who initiate the use of military force.

    Whatever, you can bring that up when it comes to it.

    The burden of proof rests with Iran to give the evidence required to lift the sanctions, it is entirelly easy for them to do so - if of course they are not seeking nuclear weapons.

    Why does that have anything to do with it being a good idea to push another country, a non signatory of the relevant treaty, to do something on nothing more than basically the threat of continued Iranian enrichment/ un co operation, and the consuences of doing so?

    Again you are wilfully ignoring the context of western aggression against Iran and a long history of meddling, to put it mildly, in the M.E. in general.

    Stop using it as a defence for a nations push for nuclear weapons, or their continuing threats to foreign states. You might feel it is the sole cause for their actions, again it is irrelevant. THAT is why I "Willfully ignore" your caricature of history.

    Why are you so convinced you own emotional position towards history and international relations is or should be a powerful argument for people acting or not acting a particular way, or for a particular international response to be appropriate?
    I have no personal dislike against the people of the US or Israel so you can quit with your misrepresentation right there. The wars in Iraq and Afgh have been a disaster for the US in terms of blood, treasure and standing on the international stage. I am sympathetic to the people of Israel and would love to see them live in security and peace. I find the treatment of the Palestinians abhorrent and I believe Israeli aggression against its neighbours has gone too far but that does not make me anti-Israel by any rational person's standards.


    Not what I said, all irrelevant except that you deem it fair to ignore the real fears of those countries because of their history with the state seeking to aquire weapons that would almost certainly be pointed at them.

    You cant see how your opinion that Iran is acting rationally doesnt even come into the equation in how they react to it?

    Completly disagree on Afghanistan, though I dont think anyone should have bothered trying to create a working democratic state in the region, THAT was a failure and a waste of lives. Anyway, its a complete red herring.



    Now this ^^ just cannot be taken seriously. The narrative is the narrative. You do not get to choose the chronological parameters of the debate about the history of Iran and the west.

    And you do not get to choose what nation should abide by certain rules, or how it is "fair" for nations to act based on it.

    That you deem it necesarry to toss them a bone, regardless of the damage done (or more importanly what it could do) in the region and the world, because you think they were treated badly fifty years ago is, I think youll agree, a sh*t argument.
    No. I believe that nuclear proliferation is bad. Focussing on Iran's nuclear ambitions while ignoring the historical context of western aggression, Israeli nukes, is tunnel vision and intellectually lazy.

    To ignore Iranian aggression deliberatly to create your own one sided narrative is dishonest, and further, dangerous if it ever was used by anyone that made policy.

    I know all about it, and dont see how or why it would mean the US or the West would not deal with Iran in exactly the fashion they are, much less forcing Israel to do something lest Iran pull the trigger.
    You haven't and I don't think you can. Of all the people I have debated with on this forum I find your use of language the most difficult to decipher. Lots of words with very little substance. I have to read what you have written about 3 times before I can make head-or-tail of it and much of it still remains obtuse.

    I find your analysis of international politics and history one sided and motivated by partisanship, your constant red herrings irritating, your inability to fact check (often over an embrassing number of posts) and your inability to address the actual issues tiring, but I like to make an effort.

    To put it bluntly, I dont care - Ive done well enough in college and do well enough now to know my writing style makes perfect sense at the levels that matter.


    Your yet to actually address the point made, or even give one reason why this is a good idea beyond its ability to allow Iran to save face. Making The Guardian readers nod sagely is not a good reason, Im afraid.

    Try and imagine the idea like a snooker ball, you just hit the white with forcing Israel to be more open, on the threat of Irans continuing program. Now tell me which balls will move, and which exactly will be good for everyone, or anyone besides Iran.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    Jaafa wrote: »
    First round of talks have just finished up. No word yet if any success was had.

    Dialogue is a plus at least, hopefully it may lead to a resolution of some sort.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭old_aussie


    RichieC wrote: »
    What kind of bomb uses 20% enriched uranium anyway? .

    The most prevalent power reactors in the world, uranium is enriched to 3 to 5%

    For a crude, inefficient weapon 20% is sufficient (called weapon(s)-usable), in theory even lower enrichment is sufficient for bomb making.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,334 ✭✭✭RichieC


    old_aussie wrote: »
    The most prevalent power reactors in the world, uranium is enriched to 3 to 5%

    For a crude, inefficient weapon 20% is sufficient (called weapon(s)-usable), in theory even lower enrichment is sufficient for bomb making.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium

    Did you completely ignore where I said research reactors generally use 20%+?

    yep.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Jaafa


    Talks are being described as being 'encouraging', by all sides, despite Iran rejecting one on one talks with the US for now. They have however issued a new religious decree banning the production of nuclear weapons.

    Next round of talks will be held on May 23 in Baghdad.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Chuck Stone


    SamHarris wrote: »
    You dont think Iran should have to listen or abide by international rules because others ignore it.

    When those who make the international rules heed them selectively themselves then they lose credibility.
    I disagree. I think the mission of preventing more people having nuclear weapons is far more important than people complaining about things being unfair.

    It's unfairness that has led to this impasse. Again you're being selective in you analysis of the situation. You're ignoring a history of western aggression and ignoring of opportunities to de-escalate tensions.
    The international community disagrees, so its a moot point on your part.

    The international community is a pretty meaningless woolly term (something you seem fond of as is evidenced in your posts).

    This is the second time I have posted the below. Perhaps you had trouble with your reading comprehension the first time so I'll post it again for your attention.
    An example of the term (international community) used by some western leaders is when denouncing Iran, for its nuclear ambitions of suspected nuclear proliferation, by stating that "Iran is defying the will of the international community by continuing uranium enrichment". The Non-Aligned Movement which consists of 118 countries from the 193 United Nations member states, endorsed Iran's right to enrich uranium for civil nuclear energy.

    Above shows that when the US an co use the term international community they mean US interests rather than some sort of global consensus.
    Why does that have anything to do with it being a good idea to push another country, a non signatory of the relevant treaty, to do something on nothing more than basically the threat of continued Iranian enrichment/ un co operation, and the consuences of doing so?

    What? :confused:
    Stop using it as a defence for a nations push for nuclear weapons, or their continuing threats to foreign states.

    Where is your evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon?
    You might feel it is the sole cause for their actions, again it is irrelevant. THAT is why I "Willfully ignore" your caricature of history.

    You ignore the history because it shows up recent aggressive policies for what they have been - a complete failure.
    Why are you so convinced you own emotional position towards history and international relations is or should be a powerful argument for people acting or not acting a particular way, or for a particular international response to be appropriate?

    What? :confused:
    Not what I said, all irrelevant except that you deem it fair to ignore the real fears of those countries because of their history with the state seeking to aquire weapons that would almost certainly be pointed at them.

    Where is your evidence that Iran is seeking to acquire a (nuclear?) weapon?
    You cant see how your opinion that Iran is acting rationally doesnt even come into the equation in how they react to it?

    What? Who is they?
    That you deem it necesarry to toss them a bone, regardless of the damage done (or more importanly what it could do) in the region and the world, because you think they were treated badly fifty years ago is, I think youll agree, a sh*t argument.

    How about if the US started with apologising to Iran for its meddling in Iranian affairs down through the years and how about accepting the peaceful overtures that Iran has been making that have been ignored (see above)?
    To ignore Iranian aggression deliberatly to create your own one sided narrative is dishonest

    What Iranian aggression?
    Your yet to actually address the point made, or even give one reason why this is a good idea beyond its ability to allow Iran to save face.

    What point and what idea?
    Try and imagine the idea like a snooker ball, you just hit the white with forcing Israel to be more open, on the threat of Irans continuing program. Now tell me which balls will move, and which exactly will be good for everyone, or anyone besides Iran.

    I have no clue what you're trying to say here - this is just another example of your obtuseness.


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    Mr.Micro wrote: »
    Dialogue is a plus at least, hopefully it may lead to a resolution of some sort.

    Let's not kid ourselves. They had talks about having more talks. Lather, rinse, repeat. The problem is the P5+1 are hung up on an alleged nuclear-weapons program but as far as Iran is concerned there is nothing to resolve.
    "What we are here to do is to find ways in which we can build confidence between us and ways in which we can demonstrate that Iran is moving away from a nuclear-weapons program," Mrs. Ashton said before entering the talks.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303624004577341732619889346.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    The P5+1 want to find a way to demonstrate Iran is "moving away" from an alleged nuclear-weapons program? That is clearly an irrational negotiating position and makes it very unlikely these talks will yield any major breakthrough.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Chuck Stone


    The US and Iran Are Talking: Why Is the New York Times Peddling Iran Islamophobia?

    At long last, the United States and Iran are engaged in serious talks about Iran's nuclear program. But instead of celebrating the fact that President Obama is keeping his promise to the people who voted for him to pursue diplomatic engagement with Iran, the New York Times has suggested to its readers that Iran's Supreme Leader is uniquely and intrinsically untrustworthy when he says that Iran will never pursue a nuclear weapon. Why? Because, according to the Times, Iran's leaders are Shiites, and Shiites have a religious doctrine called "taqiyya," which allows them to lie.

    http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/04/19-11

    I really hope something comes of these talks in spite of the doomsayers in the fawning corporate media.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    I really hope something comes of these talks in spite of the doomsayers in the fawning corporate media.

    The New York times are really showing a great deal of bigotry imho. Taqiya was used by Shia's. when they were a minority in Sunni dominated Muslim countries, to lie and say they were Sunni, so they wouldn't be killed, when Shia's were persecuted for there beliefs.

    Pretty nasty for the New York times to resort to lies about what that is, and imho it ruins there credibility, when they resort to bigotry and lies. A lot of the US media in the past were pretty unquestioning cheer leaders for the Iraq war for the Bush admin, and in this case we see the US media cheer leading another way, against the current admin. IMHO, the US media has lost a lot of credibility due to there war mongering.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Jaafa


    Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz stated today that he does not believe Iran will try acquire a nuke.
    If the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants, he will advance it to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb, but the decision must first be taken. It will happen if Khamenei judges that he is invulnerable to a response. I believe he would be making an enormous mistake, and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile. I think the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people.

    I always though that the military men in countries tend to have more sense than the politicians. Perhaps some small reason to be optimistic.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭WakeUp


    Jaafa wrote: »
    Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz stated today that he does not believe Iran will try acquire a nuke.



    I always though that the military men in countries tend to have more sense than the politicians. Perhaps some small reason to be optimistic.

    I would agree with that statement in many instances unfortunately they don't make the decisions to go to war they follow orders. And if they don't follow orders or get in line they are replaced with someone who will. The Israeli leadership in my opinion specifically Netanyahu and Barrak, I think they are insane both of them. Even contemplating attacking Iran causing multiple nuclear disasters in that country the region the world is insane let alone following through and attacking. And all the other consequence that will follow.

    General Gantz may have stated his beliefs but throughout that interview he is still talking war. The Israelis are talking war so are the US. History shows us that when these nations start talking war the majority of the time they go to war, I think there is an extremely high chance that Iran will be attacked soon I dont think its if but when. And its insane. The Israelis and anyone else who believe this attack will be "limited" short, low in casualties and will somehow make the Israeli nation a "safer" place to live - absurd logic - are/is delusional and away with the fairies.

    Israeli arrogance will be the destruction of that nation as we know it perhaps large parts of the world. They have clearly, arrogantly even underestimated Iranian resolve and the consequence to the wider world.
    Iran has a proven ability to withstand and recover from an initial assault then sustain a prolonged multi-front defensive war. They will have the majority of the Muslem world at their back and the political backing of China and Russia. And that is just scratching the surface of Israeli mis-calculations underestimations and sheer bloody arrogance.

    By following developments within the IDF and Israeli government and indeed other politicians who are ready to support an attack, Ive come to the conclusion most of them have lost the plot and are infact mad for even contemplating such action. These "talks" never stood a chance as the Iranians from the offset were issued with a list of demands they would never agree to. The nations issuing these demands know this full well. Pointless, one final attempt at gunboat diplomacy by the West nothing more. Next step is war.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,364 ✭✭✭golden lane


    there is no other nation on earth that is surrounded by enemies, that are bent on the elimation of that state...that stayte is israel......

    if you expect normal behaviour from a state like that......your dream will never come true......

    israel are backed up by the usa..........

    that is the way it is.......what should be is irrevelant......that is talk, and talk is not always reality.......

    from an israeli point of view......they are in danger, and by the laws of self preservation..will attack if they feel they need to....who is right and wrong,...only matters to people who like discussing things.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Jaafa


    WakeUp wrote: »
    I would agree with that statement in many instances unfortunately they don't make the decisions to go to war they follow orders. And if they don't follow orders or get in line they are replaced with someone who will. The Israeli leadership in my opinion specifically Netanyahu and Barrak, I think they are insane both of them. Even contemplating attacking Iran causing multiple nuclear disasters in that country the region the world is insane let alone following through and attacking. And all the other consequence that will follow.

    General Gantz may have stated his beliefs but throughout that interview he is still talking war. The Israelis are talking war so are the US. History shows us that when these nations start talking war the majority of the time they go to war, I think there is an extremely high chance that Iran will be attacked soon I dont think its if but when. And its insane. The Israelis and anyone else who believe this attack will be "limited" short, low in casualties and will somehow make the Israeli nation a "safer" place to live - absurd logic - are/is delusional and away with the fairies.

    Israeli arrogance will be the destruction of that nation as we know it perhaps large parts of the world. They have clearly, arrogantly even underestimated Iranian resolve and the consequence to the wider world.
    Iran has a proven ability to withstand and recover from an initial assault then sustain a prolonged multi-front defensive war. They will have the majority of the Muslem world at their back and the political backing of China and Russia. And that is just scratching the surface of Israeli mis-calculations underestimations and sheer bloody arrogance.

    By following developments within the IDF and Israeli government and indeed other politicians who are ready to support an attack, Ive come to the conclusion most of them have lost the plot and are infact mad for even contemplating such action. These "talks" never stood a chance as the Iranians from the offset were issued with a list of demands they would never agree to. The nations issuing these demands know this full well. Pointless, one final attempt at gunboat diplomacy by the West nothing more. Next step is war.

    The war talk from Israel and the US has been extensive, far more I would say than even before Iraq or Afghanistan. Personally I think its a bluff, I don't think they'll launch strikes, Israel alone does not have the capabilities, and even the US can't pull it off without massive repercussions at a time when they really really can't afford it. If war is coming its still a long long way off IMO. There is simply no situation imaginable where it could work out in their favor.

    The US and Israel are bluffing and Iran is calling it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭Eggy Baby!


    tbh both Israel and Iran should rollback any nukes they currently have and put all nuclear material very, very far underground (Israel might put it in Palestine however)


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 174 ✭✭troposphere


    Jaafa wrote: »
    The war talk from Israel and the US has been extensive, far more I would say than even before Iraq or Afghanistan.

    I think the talk from the US government and media is much different to Iraq. I really don't understand how you could even compare them to each other.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Good article outlaying Iran's probable aims with uranium enrichment:
    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/04/2012422833676280.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Jaafa


    Talks being held again today in Baghdad.
    This comes after Iran held separate talks with the IAEA which will soon lead to a deal for resuming inspections at the parchin military site being signed according to Amano .
    Despite all this Israel continues to state military options are still being considered.


  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    Jaafa wrote: »
    Talks being held again today in Baghdad.
    This comes after Iran held separate talks with the IAEA which will soon lead to a deal for resuming inspections at the parchin military site being signed according to Amano .
    Despite all this Israel continues to state military options are still being considered.


    It's ok news, but we shouldn't be gullible too:

    from http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-iran-soon-sign-nuclear-accord-amano-083510553.html
    One Western diplomat told AFP there had been "no breakthrough" in Amano's visit. Another said the trip appeared disappointing but that they were waiting for a "clearer picture" at meetings in Vienna later on Tuesday.

    "This is only a promise, and Iran has made many, many promises in the past," said a third, adding that Tehran was possibly trying to appear cooperative ahead of Wednesday's meeting in Baghdad.

    and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9253558/Iran-suspected-of-clean-up-operation-at-nuclear-site.html

    Parchin, the nuclear site that is gonna be inspected and that has raised suppositions of being cleaned earlier this year.


    Let's wait and see what all this brings before we open champagnes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog



    Let's wait and see what all this brings before we open champagnes.

    Who's opening champagne?

    I think you should pay more attention to what Amano said instead of relying on quotes from shadowy unnamed "Western diplomats" who only want to foster disbelief.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Parchin, the nuclear site that is gonna be inspected and that has raised suppositions of being cleaned earlier this year.

    Its not a nuclear sites. Its a military base. Which are exempt from inspections under the NPT, due to US and Russian insistence. The fact that Iran is allowing any such inspection is a compromise on there part. Why people insist on trying to make out that Iran is totally uncompromising is beyond me. Also, misrepresenting what the site is, also doesn't help things.

    Also, the fact that Iran is willing to talk about giving up 19.75% enrichment (not for the first time either, the Turkey and Brazil deal that the US helped scrap was an earlier attempt at this), which btw they have a right to do so under the NPT is another sign of compromise on there side.

    I am not saying things will definetly work out, but at least there is a chance.

    Having said all that, I do find Western demands beyond the NPT to be disturbing. If the NPT is not fit for purpose then it should be scrapped. If it is fit for purpose, then they Wests demands should not go beyond what is in the NPT.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4236554,00.html

    That's what I was talking about.

    The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said Thursday that new satellite images indicate that Iran is continuing in its efforts to "destroy evidence" of suspected nuclear activity.
    "The images shows what appears to be further sanitization activity at the site in the Parchin military complex, where Iran is suspected to have conducted high explosive tests pertinent to the development of nuclear weapons," ISIS said.
    UN nuclear watchdog stated that "based on satellite imagery, at this location, where virtually no activity had been observed for a number of years, the buildings of interest to the Agency are now subject to extensive activities that could hamper the Agency’s ability to undertake effective verification."
    Western envoys who attended Wednesday's briefing said that two small side buildings at the Parchin military facility had been removed and ISIS said that they "have been completely razed."
    The disclosure followed inconclusive talks between Iran and six world powers in Baghdad last week to address concerns about the nature of its nuclear activities, which Iran says are aimed at generating electricity.
    "Heavy machinery tracks and extensive evidence of earth displacement is also visible throughout the interior as well as the exterior of the site's perimeter," the think-tank said.
    The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly asked Iran for access to Parchin as part of a long-stalled probe into suspicions that Tehran may be seeking the ability to assemble nuclear bombs, should it decide to do so.
    The Islamic state has so far refused to let inspectors visit the facility – which it describes as a conventional military complex – saying there must first be a broader framework agreement on how to address the IAEA's questions.
    Iran's IAEA envoy, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, dismissed such accusations by Western officials, telling reporters after the briefing at IAEA headquarters that "this kind of noise and allegations are baseless."


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes



    OK, but the problem is that this is a military base, and what there doing could be anything. Jumping to the conclusion of a cover up is imho a bit silly, especially as Iran did allow in inspectors there before, and they found nothing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    wes wrote: »
    OK, but the problem is that this is a military base, and what there doing could be anything. Jumping to the conclusion of a cover up is imho a bit silly, especially as Iran did allow in inspectors there before, and they found nothing.

    Maybe, but the problem is that if only authorized nuclear facilities for visits will be visited, and they would be prepared for the visits beforehand then all this inspections are of no use, and give Iran time to develop military nuclear projects (if they do) in the meanwhile.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Maybe, but the problem is that if only authorized nuclear facilities for visits will be visited, and they would be prepared for the visits beforehand then all this inspections are of no use, and give Iran time to develop military nuclear projects (if they do) in the meanwhile.

    Well the people who wanted military sites exempted was the US and Russia. If such an exemption makes the NPT useless, well we know who is to blame.


  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    wes wrote: »
    Well the people who wanted military sites exempted was the US and Russia. If such an exemption makes the NPT useless, well we know who is to blame.

    What's the alternative? It's better than doing nothing at all.
    The Iranians are playing games, and the west should keep all options open. I don't know why this statement should anger anyone who opposes nuclear weapon in the hands of the Iranian regime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    What's the alternative? It's better than doing nothing at all.

    Well, there was a deal that Brazil and Turkey sorted out, until the US messed that right up. Plenty of alternatives, but it seems to me that its America's way or the highway.
    The Iranians are playing games, and the west should keep all options open.

    If anyone is playing games its the US. First they ruin the potential deal that Brazil and Turkey almost got done, and there now offering 0 concessions in the current talks. Seems to me that Iran is offering some compromise, where as the US, isn't offering any at all.
    I don't know why this statement should anger anyone who opposes nuclear weapon in the hands of the Iranian regime.

    Well, you see the anger comes from some of us, not believing that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, as the people making that claim, also made that claim about Iraq. You kind of lose credibility, when the last time you were caught in a blatant lie, or maybe they were just incompetent. Either way, its kind hard to take such accusations seriously.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Chuck Stone


    wes wrote: »
    Well, you see the anger comes from some of us, not believing that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, as the people making that claim, also made that claim about Iraq.

    Yep. A little investigative googling of the ISIS (as quoted by The Irsraeli) turns up some interesting funders.

    I also found this little gem
    I personally believe there's plenty of evidence for biological and chemical, and there's sufficient evidence to believe that there's a reconstituted nuclear weapons program.
    —David Albright, PBS Interview Oct 1, 2002

    David Albright is the founder of the ISIS and said the above about Iraq in the run up to the 2003 invasion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭Eggy Baby!


    David Albright is the founder of the ISIS and said the above about Iraq in the run up to the 2003 invasion.

    The rest was history...


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