Question about PR voting

Cookie_Monster · 13-05-2010 11:40am #1

With all the talk of PR voting and changing the UK system I was think about this last night:

Say you need 50,000 votes to be elected in an constituency in Ireland.
On counting candidate A gets 60,000. How is it decided which 10,000 out of those 60,000 are used as transfer votes?
Is it just a case of the first 50,000 counted go towards it and that it? Is it a case that once they are over the 50k no-more are counted so you can't actually know they got 60,000?

So if you have two voters and they both vote for candidate A.
Voter 1 has no 2nd choice ticked
Voter 2 does.

It seems unfair that depending on the order the votes are counted, a second candidate may get a transfer or the vote may simply be discarded as no number 2. Does that mean that some people votes are worth 0 while others effectively are worth 2

Or am I totally wrong?

Dacelonid · 13-05-2010 11:45am

You are wrong, but I used to think the same thing, so you're not alone.
As far as I understand it now, the 10,000 transferrable votes are transferred in the same ratio as the 2nd preferences of the 60,000 votes. So on recount (of the 60,000 votes) it is seen that candidate B got 50% of 2nd preferences, C got 30% and D got 20%, then the 10,000 transferrable votes would be transferred in that ratio.
Or at least that is what I think happens

gizmo555 · 13-05-2010 12:02pm

Surpluses in Irish elections (except for the Senate, where the electorate is small and the numbers more manageable) are distributed on the basis of random selection.

It was a major criticism of the e-voting system proposed to be introduced here that although it could easily have been used to eliminate this element of randomness in our elections, it was decided instead to reproduce it electronically - one of the more bizarre aspects of that saga.

Marshy · 13-05-2010 12:02pm

I was unsure about this too. Wiki seems to suggest votes to be transferred are chosen at random...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counting_Single_Transferable_Votes#Surplus_re-allocation

Sulmac · 13-05-2010 12:14pm

They aren't randomly distributed; in Ireland, anyway. Dacelonid is correct. All of the candidate's votes are re-counted based on second preference and the surplus distributed proportionally to that.

From the Citizens' Information website:

If a candidate receives more than the quota on any count, the surplus votes are transferred to the remaining candidates in proportion to the next available preferences indicated by voters (i.e., the next preference on each vote for a candidate who has not been elected or eliminated). For example, if candidate A receives 900 votes more than the quota on the first count and on examining all of his or her votes, it is found that 30% of these have next available preferences for candidate B, then candidate B does not get 30% of all candidate A's votes, candidate B gets 30% of his/her surplus, i.e., 270 votes (30% of 900).

Dacelonid · 13-05-2010 12:14pm

Didn't see Sulmacs reply, so guess I was right

Cool Mo D · 13-05-2010 12:19pm

Sulmac wrote: »

They aren't randomly distributed; in Ireland, anyway. Dacelonid is correct. All of the candidate's votes are re-counted based on second preference and the surplus distributed proportionally to that.

From the Citizens' Information website:

Not every vote is recounted though - it would just take too long. What happens is votes are randomly selected to be representative of the candidate, and the proportions of the votes from the sample are distributed accordingly. It's called statistical sampling, and it can affect the result of a close election.

I also remember the e-voting thing where they were planning to keep the statistical sampling, despite being able to count each vote exactly.

Sulmac · 13-05-2010 12:21pm

Cool Mo D wrote: »

Not every vote is recounted though - it would just take too long. What happens is votes are randomly selected to be representative of the candidate, and the proportions of the votes from the sample are distributed accordingly. It's called statistical sampling, and it can affect the result of a close election.

I also remember the e-voting thing where they were planning to keep the statistical sampling, despite being able to count each vote exactly.

It explicitly says that "on examining all of his or her votes"?

I always presumed that was the reason Irish election counts seem to take ages compared to other countries. Not that I don't like that, though. :P

Cookie_Monster · 13-05-2010 12:23pm

Sulmac wrote: »

They aren't randomly distributed; in Ireland, anyway. Dacelonid is correct. All of the candidate's votes are re-counted based on second preference and the surplus distributed proportionally to that.

From the Citizens' Information website:

Ah ok so, that seems fairer then.
Thanks

say from that example there are 900 surplus votes. Is the "no 2nd choice" included in the proportion?

EG.
30% to Candidate B
50% to Candidate C
10% to Candidate D
10% unallocated?

Sulmac · 13-05-2010 12:23pm

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Ah ok so, that seems fairer then.
Thanks

say from that example there are 900 surplus votes. Is the "no 2nd choice" included in the proportion?

EG.
30% to Candidate B
50% to Candidate C
10% to Candidate D
10% unallocated?

The 10% (i.e. 90 votes) just stop, or "die" at the first candidate.

Cookie_Monster · 13-05-2010 12:24pm

Cool Mo D wrote: »

Not every vote is recounted though - it would just take too long. What happens is votes are randomly selected to be representative of the candidate, and the proportions of the votes from the sample are distributed accordingly. It's called statistical sampling, and it can affect the result of a close election.

That can't be right can it? :eek:

Kiwi_knock · 13-05-2010 12:33pm

If on the first count Candidate gets 500 votes over the quota of 12000, all 12500 votes are counted again. Candidate B gets 30%, Candidate C gets 20% and so on. Candidate B gets 30% of 500 votes.
All the surplus votes are only counted on the first count. For all the following counts it is a bit more difficult to understand. If candidate E gets elimanated and their preferences are spread out. If Candidate A then goes over the quota, only the preferences they got off candidate E are counted. Not all of Candidate A's votes are voted just the transfers it got from Candidate E.
Hope I have made that understandable, it is really hard to convey in writing. Really difficult to understand as well, took me ages to comprehend it but I am sure that is what is done.

Cookie_Monster · 13-05-2010 12:37pm

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

If on the first count Candidate gets 500 votes over the quota of 12000, all 12500 votes are counted again. Candidate B gets 30%, Candidate C gets 20% and so on. Candidate B gets 30% of 500 votes.
All the surplus votes are only counted on the first count. For all the following counts it is a bit more difficult to understand. If candidate E gets elimanated and their preferences are spread out. If Candidate A then goes over the quota, only the preferences they got off candidate E are counted. Not all of Candidate A's votes are voted just the transfers it got from Candidate E.
Hope I have made that understandable, it is really hard to convey in writing. Really difficult to understand as well, took me ages to comprehend it but I am sure that is what is done.

I think I get it but my Brain hurts now

redfacedbear · 13-05-2010 4:37pm

Kiwi knock is right - it's the votes that put you over the quota that are redistributed - if you are elected on the first count then the whole pile is sorted and the surplus distributed on that proportion. In subsequent counts it's only the batch of votes that put you over the line that count.

ninty9er · 13-05-2010 9:36pm

Cool Mo D wrote: »

Not every vote is recounted though - it would just take too long.

Incorrect
May I refer you to:
http://www.electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2007&cons=159

I was at this count myself.
Power got 8,967 of the 2s from O'Dea's 19,082. That's 46.99%. 46.99% of 10,852 is 5,100..

Apogee · 13-05-2010 11:17pm

Overview of the surplus distribution procedure

An elected candidate's surplus is distributed based on the next available preferences for continuing candidates (i.e. candidates not elected or excluded) contained in the last parcel of votes that brought the elected candidate over the quota. In the case of a surplus arising on the first count, this parcel is made up of all the elected candidate's first preferences. In any other case, only the last parcel of votes received by the elected candidate is involved.

Where all the next preferences in the last parcel of votes received by the elected candidate cannot be distributed because they exceed the surplus, the surplus votes are distributed to candidates still in the running in proportion to each one’s share of next preferences in that parcel of votes. The votes for inclusion in the surplus are taken from the top of each candidate's sub-parcel of next preferences made up from the last parcel of votes received by the elected candidate.

http://www.environ.ie/en/LocalGovernment/Voting/PublicationsDocuments/FileDownLoad,1895,en.pdf

Question about PR voting

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