How many Fianna Fáil Seats?

wee truck big driver · 21-02-2011 11:10pm

two wheels good wrote: »

This is utter nonsense! I don't know where start - cronyism, regulators asleep at the wheel, no meetings with regulators, Bertie: "I wish someone hadda told me about de banks", failure to dampen the building boom when warned....

Have a read of "Ship of Fools" by Fintan O'Toole. It will open your eyes to the truth.

i think fintan o toole would get more votes for fianna fail i know i would do the complet opposite of whatever he suggests

skippy5 · 21-02-2011 11:18pm

two wheels good wrote: »

This is utter nonsense! I don't know where start - cronyism, regulators asleep at the wheel, no meetings with regulators, Bertie: "I wish someone hadda told me about de banks", failure to dampen the building boom when warned....

Have a read of "Ship of Fools" by Fintan O'Toole. It will open your eyes to the truth.

Would not take much notice of what he said, he is in hiding after making a complete fool of himself

Burnfort Boy · 21-02-2011 11:39pm

What's the betting on a FG and FF coalition.

leincar · 21-02-2011 11:43pm

LoanShark wrote: »

Mary will keep her seat,She may be the last to be elected, But she'll get in..

I'll be voting in Donegal on Friday, I'd say we'll vote Dinny,Mary and Pearce.. I would die with shame if Frank the Tank were to get in..

Nationally, I think FF will get near the 40 mark, (somewhere between 35 and 40)...And I would not be surprised if needed, FF were to support the Government..(Paddy Power has FF/FG government @ 9/1)

I also think that, a single party government would not survive more than three years.

No chance. That means just a possibility of three up to a maximum of eight constituencies without a FF TD.

LoanShark · 21-02-2011 11:51pm

leincar wrote: »

No chance. That means just a possibility of three up to a maximum of eight constituencies without a FF TD.

We'll all know come Saturday/Sunday..

CoalBucket · 21-02-2011 11:56pm

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong.

Anyhoo, here goes.

Fianna Fáil have already given up on this election. For the first time in their history they are not standing enough candidates to get a majority. In the 43 constituencies they are only standing 75 candidates. In dublin they are standing 17 candidates in 12 constituencies. That leaves 58 candidates in 31 constituencies.

I'll start with Dublin. In 5 constituencies of Dublin they have 2 candidates in each of them. They are; Dublin Central, North, South West, West and Dun Laoighaire. These are all four seat constituencies where they would need 20% of first preference votes to get one elected, and would need 35% to have a fighting chance of two. Right now, I cannot see them getting more than 12 or 13% in the Dublin region with the outside possibility of 17 or 18% in Dublin West. None of these percentages will be enough to get a candidate over the line. They would be extremely reliant on transfers. In this election they are transfer toxic. The level of transfer to Fianna Fail will be very small. Fianna Fáil realise this themselves.

That leaves 7 constituencies. In all of them they are already written off or an outside chance of the last seat. Once again, because of the lack of transferability, I don't see them getting any seat, even in the five seat constituencies of Dublin South and South Central.

So for Dublin I predict on a bad day none, on a good day three. These three would be; Lenihan(West), Corrigan(South) and Curran(Mid-West)

Now for the rest of the country. There remains 58 candidates standing in 31 constituencies. In 4 of these constituencies they are standing 3 candidates in each, in 19 constituencies they are standing 2 candidates in each and in the remaining 8, they are standing 1 candidate in each constituency.

Firstly, Fianna Fáil know that there is no constituency where they can take two seats. They realised this probably to late for them. We know this as for example Ned O'Keefe and Noel O'Flynn were unceremoniously asked to retire.

So now we are down to a max of 31 candidates for 31 seats.
Taking the constituencies with 3 candidates in each of them, Carlow/Kilkenny, Galway West, Laois/Offaly, and Longford/Westmeath. There is one seat in each constituency for Fianna Fáil. So they are off the mark.

Now we have 19 constituencies with 2 candidates in each. The definites here(purely my opinion) are Cavan/Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Donegal South-West, Limerick City, Louth*, Mayo. That gives them 6 more seats including Kirk in Louth who is automatically re-elected.

Finally there are the 8 constituencies with 1 candidate in each. Of these constituencies Waterford is probably the only definite.

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.
.

I haven't got a clue if you are right but it is a very reasoned analysis.

Absurdum · 22-02-2011 12:00am

LoanShark wrote: »

Nationally, I think FF will get near the 40 mark, (somewhere between 35 and 40)

That would mean around half their candidates getting elected - I honestly don't see this happening, not in a million years.

I think SF are going to surprise a lot of people on Friday, I don't think 20+ seats is beyond them.

3ndahalfof6 · 22-02-2011 7:25pm

LoanShark wrote: »

People are seriously pi$$ed at FF and the other main parties at the way things have gone, But The people are also smart enough to know that the policies that SF offer are not the best route for the country to get back on track..Seriously, how would it look internationally for Ireland to be seen as a country that fails to pay back the loans that we have recieved and to screw the investors that showed confidence in us and our plans for the future..The idea from SF that we can dip into the pension pot and help kick start the country again is a massive risk that would damage this country even further if it goes wrong..

I dont think SF will exceed 12 seats.
I would still stand by the idea that FF will get high 30's / 40.
Labour will also come in on Par as FF about 35/40 ish.
FG has it all to loose..

so your only giving FG about 58 seats if this is the case I think your the only one in the country who thinks so.

if seats of 35-40 go to FF or LAB it will be at the expense of either party not at the expense of FG,

so either LAB will have 35-40 giving FF about 11 or FF get 35-40 giving LAB about 18,

but it is possible both FF and LAB will loose out to SF giving FG the outcome they want, a bigger spread of the vote between the other parties fighting for the scraps.

Elmer Blooker · 22-02-2011 8:19pm

steelcityblues wrote: »

In the early 30s unfortunately!

I have to agree with you , the cute hoor soldiers of destiny will do a lot better than expected. Remember the divorce referendum in 1995? It was looking like a landslide yes only a few days before the referendum but 49.9% came out and voted no. The rural chip on the shoulder "what has that lot up in Dublin ever done for us" brigade hasn't gone away you know.

Liam Byrne · 22-02-2011 9:03pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The rural chip on the shoulder "what has that lot up in Dublin ever done for us" brigade hasn't gone away you know.

What does the location that people live in have to do with anything ?

The biggest FF con-men for the last few years were from Dublin : Ahern, Lawlor & Burke being the ones that spring to mind!

Slick50 · 23-02-2011 12:29am

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong....

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.

So overall I would predict on a bad day eleven seats and on a good day, and I think it would have to be a very good day twenty five seats.

I honestly think at this late stage Fianna Fáil are going to have a bad day.

I hope your right. According to paddypowers constituancy by constituancy odds, they're heading for 26 seats. Other than FF and SF seats, their odds are suprisingly in agreement with the boards poll.

I'm banking on them not getting twenty seats, currently on 9/2 with powers. Though only 2/5 on over twentyfive seats.

ninebeanrows · 23-02-2011 1:48am

25-30 for me.

Going to very hard for them to get above 30.

Just ran through all the constituencies.

This is around where they will get and this is assuming they get around 16-18% of the vote. If they only poll nationally around 14% and with the toxicity of the transfers they could well get below the dreaded 20 seats.

Astonishing really.

Even a bounce now leaves then at 18% max. They cant get more than 32 seats with 18% of the vote considering they arent a transfer friendly party like LAbour.

Nehaxak · 23-02-2011 4:01am

Can't see FF getting any more than 5 seats, guess we'll find out soon enough for sure though.

Auctionmcd · 23-02-2011 10:23am

De Dannan wrote: »

I would love to know where these people have been for the past three years

This is traditionally the case where FF voters although disillusioned with them will come out in force to support them for fear of a FG majority.
FF constantly vote for the Party and rarely for the politics (Their core voters I mean, which are a substantial amount)

I think in past years FF could have ran a goat for some areas and they would have elected it.

nevsky · 26-02-2011 11:04am

leincar wrote: »

This is the last time I'm predicting. Every time I look at the polls I get a touch excited and I really don't think I could suffer the disappointment come Saturday if I'm wrong.

Anyhoo, here goes.

Fianna Fáil have already given up on this election. For the first time in their history they are not standing enough candidates to get a majority. In the 43 constituencies they are only standing 75 candidates. In dublin they are standing 17 candidates in 12 constituencies. That leaves 58 candidates in 31 constituencies.

I'll start with Dublin. In 5 constituencies of Dublin they have 2 candidates in each of them. They are; Dublin Central, North, South West, West and Dun Laoighaire. These are all four seat constituencies where they would need 20% of first preference votes to get one elected, and would need 35% to have a fighting chance of two. Right now, I cannot see them getting more than 12 or 13% in the Dublin region with the outside possibility of 17 or 18% in Dublin West. None of these percentages will be enough to get a candidate over the line. They would be extremely reliant on transfers. In this election they are transfer toxic. The level of transfer to Fianna Fail will be very small. Fianna Fáil realise this themselves.

That leaves 7 constituencies. In all of them they are already written off or an outside chance of the last seat. Once again, because of the lack of transferability, I don't see them getting any seat, even in the five seat constituencies of Dublin South and South Central.

So for Dublin I predict on a bad day none, on a good day three. These three would be; Lenihan(West), Corrigan(South) and Curran(Mid-West)

Now for the rest of the country. There remains 58 candidates standing in 31 constituencies. In 4 of these constituencies they are standing 3 candidates in each, in 19 constituencies they are standing 2 candidates in each and in the remaining 8, they are standing 1 candidate in each constituency.

Firstly, Fianna Fáil know that there is no constituency where they can take two seats. They realised this probably to late for them. We know this as for example Ned O'Keefe and Noel O'Flynn were unceremoniously asked to retire.

So now we are down to a max of 31 candidates for 31 seats.
Taking the constituencies with 3 candidates in each of them, Carlow/Kilkenny, Galway West, Laois/Offaly, and Longford/Westmeath. There is one seat in each constituency for Fianna Fáil. So they are off the mark.

Now we have 19 constituencies with 2 candidates in each. The definites here(purely my opinion) are Cavan/Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Donegal South-West, Limerick City, Louth*, Mayo. That gives them 6 more seats including Kirk in Louth who is automatically re-elected.

Finally there are the 8 constituencies with 1 candidate in each. Of these constituencies Waterford is probably the only definite.

That gives them eleven seats, which I think they are sure of. I am almost certain they will not get a seat in the following constituencies; Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Cork South-West, Donegal North-West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Tipperary North, Tipperary South and Wicklow.

So overall I would predict on a bad day eleven seats and on a good day, and I think it would have to be a very good day twenty five seats.

I honestly think at this late stage Fianna Fáil are going to have a bad day.

It looks as if your analysis of Fianna Fail was spot on.

leincar · 26-02-2011 11:16am

Thank you sir. Happy to oblige. Thank God I may be right.

Absurdum · 26-02-2011 11:26am

Looks like they have lost their 2 seats in Dublin North, horray!

Noreen1 · 26-02-2011 11:27am

From the Donegal forum, thanks to cosanostra:

cosanostra wrote: »

Acording to oceanfm Tally figures for 41 boxes (Donegal electoral area) - Coughlan 1854, Doherty 2213, McGinley 1955, Pringle 2344.
its going to be 5 or 6 this evening till 1st count

It looks like it's going to depend on transfers between Coughlan and O'Donnell in Donegal Southwest, which leaves them in with a chance of a seat.
I hope it's not Coughlan, if that's the case.

Absurdum · 26-02-2011 11:30am

I have mixed feelings about Coughlan and her seat, at least if she holds it, we know where she is, if she's set free in the world, who knows what havoc she could cause. Containment ftw.

Noreen1 · 26-02-2011 11:38am

Absurdum wrote: »

I have mixed feelings about Coughlan and her seat, at least if she holds it, we know where she is, if she's set free in the world, who knows what havoc she could cause. Containment ftw.

You have no sympathy for the people of Donegal Southwest, so!:p:D:D