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How to decrease European dependence on Russian energy?
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10-05-2014 11:33pm#1Mods: feel free to move this to Green issues if you think it more relevant there, but I hope to start a wider discussion here as energy policy and other matters have a lot of involvment from environmental interests nowadays.
Over the passage of time, reading the statements of and debating with environmentalists has lead me to believe that they, and by default governments who now have to design energy policy etc. based on the environmental agenda through EU directives and the like, support the continued burning of fossil fuels in power generation, specifically natural gas.
The logic for this conclusion is lengthy but straightforward:
Environmentalists generally oppose the construction and operation of nuclear power plants, for reasons I would generally dispute as irresponsible at best (despite the fact that as France shows us you can use nuclear energy to virtually banish fossil fuels from your grid and also have sane electricity prices), but they also oppose coal fired power as being dirty and bad for the climate etc. Adherents to the mainstream environmental movement generally advocate more reliance on "renewables" like wind turbines and solar panels, which unlike other forms of power, require vast subsidies, are literally as dependable as the weather and which it is difficult if not impossible to power a country with.
The only way that has been shown, so far, to square this proverbial circle, is to use something called Combined Cycle Gas Turbines, which are allegedly more efficient, and critically, can because of its flexibility and ability to change the amount of output rapidly, be paired with wind farms and solar panels to counter the ups and downs of production of those plant types. Nuclear and coal, happily for them, cannot react to the instability of wind farms etc. Gas is also nice and clean and it causes much less CO2 emission than coal so it won't fry the polar bears so fast and so on.
In a European context however, besides the reality of higher energy costs and worse CO2/KWH figures than countries like France, there is the problem that most gas used in European gas fired power plants is imported from Russia, which as we have seen is lead by a man keen to rebuild the Soviet Union and has a shopping list of bits of neighbouring countries that he'd like to recapture. South Ossetia, Crimea in Ukraine as well as other parts of Eastern Ukraine (which Stalin settled with Russians the same way Britain sent "planters" to settle largely in what is now Northern Ireland) and possibly other bits of other countries as well. This in addition to his desire to support horrible dictators like the leader of Belarus, the slimeball that used to rule the Ukraine, Bashar Al-Assaid in Syria etc so as to keep these countries inside Moscow's "sphere of influence."
This Ukrainian business should cause all of us to question ANY energy strategy that leaves us reliant on Russia. For me, what Europe in general needs to do now is pretty much a settled question, but some of my views on the topic would not be popular. So I throw the question out to Boardsies in general and to adherents of the mainstream environmental movement in particular, how should our energy policy be altered in light of any question over the continued reliance on Russian gas? If you are an environmentalist, how do we - or can we - proceed with the Green agenda if the desire not be dependent on Russia serves as a limit on the use of gas?0
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Nonsense. Every form of power generation is subsidised to some extent. Fossil fuels in particular are still heavily subsidised:Adherents to the mainstream environmental movement generally advocate more reliance on "renewables" like wind turbines and solar panels, which unlike other forms of power, require vast subsidies...
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27142377
Not true - only about a third of Europe’s gas comes from Russia. That’s obviously still a significant amount, but it’s far less than “most”.In a European context however, besides the reality of higher energy costs and worse CO2/KWH figures than countries like France, there is the problem that most gas used in European gas fired power plants is imported from Russia...
What exactly is an environmentalist? I mean, isn’t everyone an environmentalist to some extent?If you are an environmentalist...0 -
Nuclear power nearly always requires very significant state subsidies and guarantees, witness the problems the UK has in financing new Nuclear Plants its not some magic solution otherwise private companies would be leaping at the chance to build them (I presume the fate of Energy Northwest made a lasting impression).0
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True, but a lot of that is fuel subsidies in poorer countries where money is much tighter, and as such people there would not otherwise be able to use the fuels at all, drawing supplies from the same world markets as the U.S. and Europe. Other examples include "subsidies" by means of reduced VAT e.g. gas in the UK, which is not a subsidy at all but simply a reduction of the amount of tax costs levied, and likely more than compensated for by tax on transport fuels.Nonsense. Every form of power generation is subsidised to some extent. Fossil fuels in particular are still heavily subsidised:
It's still too much - I would prefer that we were not importing that 1/3rd when Vladimir Putin or his hand-picked descendent decides "hmm, there's some Russian 'planters' in Estonia left over from the Soviet days, let me go start something there and take a bit of that country."Not true - only about a third of Europe’s gas comes from Russia. That’s obviously still a significant amount, but it’s far less than “most”.
As I see it, your policy will leave us in the same position when Russia decides to invade Estonia or another part of the former Soviet Union, as we are today with this Ukrainian business - powerless and impotent, capable of little more than puffing hot air, because we rely on Russia to keep our lights on and our homes warm.
I would like a policy that reduces Europes reliance on gas, and imports of gas in particular.
You appear to want policies that leave Europe more reliant on gas, and (especially without fracking) more reliant on Russia. Unless you can show us coal fired power plants and nuclear plants that can co-operate with renewables the same way that CCGT/gas does. Plant types that you would explicitly support in preference to the status quo.
I'm referring to the mainstream environmental movement, Greenpeace, world Green parties etc. With "Climate Action NOW" "Cher-NO-byl" "Windmills uber alles" type sloganeering and mentalities.What exactly is an environmentalist? I mean, isn’t everyone an environmentalist to some extent?
So how come the French have a 95% non-fossil power grid, and among the cheapest power in Europe? Meanwhile in countries like Germany and Denmark, where mainstream environmentalists have been dictating policy, costs are dramatically higher, as is reliance on fossil fuels?RDM_83 again wrote: »Nuclear power nearly always requires very significant state subsidies and guarantees, witness the problems the UK has in financing new Nuclear Plants its not some magic solution otherwise private companies would be leaping at the chance to build them.
(According to that, Denmark's electricity prices are cheaper only than those of 6 small island nations, most of them microscopic territories in the Pacific Ocean such as Niue, Tonga and the Soloman Islands)0 -
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So you’re saying that fossil fuels do not benefit from vast subsidies?True, but a lot of that is fuel subsidies in poorer countries where money is much tighter, and as such people there would not otherwise be able to use the fuels at all, drawing supplies from the same world markets as the U.S. and Europe.
Of course it is – the net result is that gas is cheaper to the consumer. It is effectively subsidised.Other examples include "subsidies" by means of reduced VAT e.g. gas in the UK, which is not a subsidy at all...
I’m sorry, my policy? What’s that then?As I see it, your policy...
Greenpeace is mainstream environmentalism? Interesting. I would have thought most people consider Greenpeace pretty extreme.I'm referring to the mainstream environmental movement, Greenpeace, world Green parties etc.
Spain are world-leaders in solar and wind generation, but their electricity prices are only marginally higher than France’s, according to your link.So how come the French have a 95% non-fossil power grid, and among the cheapest power in Europe? Meanwhile in countries like Germany and Denmark, where mainstream environmentalists have been dictating policy, costs are dramatically higher, as is reliance on fossil fuels?
What gives?0 -
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It's possible, but remember that my position opposes fossil fuel usage in power stations. So whereas your article points out subsidies for coal burning in Germany, I would be opposed to that without equivocation. In transport and home heating, obviously things get much more complicated. E.g. transport fuel must be dense and easy to carry, while heating fuel is generally limited to stuff you can burn, like fossil fuels or peat or wood or the like.So you’re saying that fossil fuels do not benefit from vast subsidies?
But do you not see any difference between a "subsidy" and "less tax?" Ireland has lower VAT rates on essential things like food, is that a "subsidy" or it simply the government taking less of your money?Of course it is – the net result is that gas is cheaper to the consumer. It is effectively subsidised.
I consider you to be a mainstream environmentalist. That leads me to make certain assumptions, feel free to point out any flaws:I’m sorry, my policy? What’s that then?- You consider the threat of global warming to be real (which I'm not disputing, to be clear).
- You are opposed to the use of nuclear power as a drop in replacement for fossil fuel electricity and do not wish to follow the French example.
- Your approach involves carbon taxes and regulations, and broad support for weather based renewables, potentially regardless of cost.
- You have no realistic plan for dealing with the unreliability of said weather based renewables, with the exception of pairing them with natural gas fired CCGT.
- You do not support fracking.
- As a result of this, your policy implicitly supports continued excessive reliance on Russian gas. That in turn could leave in the same position regarding a country like Estonia in 2020 as we are in with the Ukraine today.
Umm ... Spain is a little bit further to the South than either France or Ireland, and thus a good deal warmer. As such, it is possible that many of the issues regarding weather based renewables are less there, e.g. solar plant output may closely match air conditioning demands.Spain are world-leaders in solar and wind generation, but their electricity prices are only marginally higher than France’s, according to your link.
What gives?
It's also possible that there are subsidies for such that are not included in the electricity price.0 -
But that's just not a realistic position. We can't remove fossil fuels from the mix overnight - it's totally unrealistic.It's possible, but remember that my position opposes fossil fuel usage in power stations. So whereas your article points out subsidies for coal burning in Germany, I would be opposed to that without equivocation.
If a government taxes product A, but does not tax an alternative product, B, then B has effectively been subsidised.But do you not see any difference between a "subsidy" and "less tax?" Ireland has lower VAT rates on essential things like food, is that a "subsidy" or it simply the government taking less of your money?
I consider myself a practitioner of common sense.I consider you to be a mainstream environmentalist.
No, I just don't think it's feasible. I mean, if the French system is the model we should all be following, then why are the French moving away from nuclear?[*]You are opposed to the use of nuclear power as a drop in replacement for fossil fuel electricity and do not wish to follow the French example.
I'm not convinced a carbon tax is feasible or necessary, actually. But interesting that you should point out the potentially high cost of renewables, but completely overlook the potentially huge cost of nuclear.[*]Your approach involves carbon taxes and regulations, and broad support for weather based renewables, potentially regardless of cost.
What about all the other means we have of generating electricity?[*]You have no realistic plan for dealing with the unreliability of said weather based renewables, with the exception of pairing them with natural gas fired CCGT.
I’m undecided on the issue, actually.[*]You do not support fracking.
So you want the EU to break trade links with every state in the world that has engaged in dodgy dealings overseas? Wouldn’t that mean the EU would probably have to sever ties with most countries in the world? And let’s not forget that there are several EU states (the UK in particular) whose foreign policies leave a lot to be desired.[*]As a result of this, your policy implicitly supports continued excessive reliance on Russian gas.
The point is that it’s not as simple as nuclear = cheap electricity, renewables = expensive electricity. It’s all about finding the optimal mix that results in affordable electricity, while minimising ecological impact.Umm ... Spain is a little bit further to the South than either France or Ireland, and thus a good deal warmer. As such, it is possible that many of the issues regarding weather based renewables are less there, e.g. solar plant output may closely match air conditioning demands.
It's also possible that there are subsidies for such that are not included in the electricity price.0 -
Thing is, some countries have more or less done it, either because they are blessed with geographical features like fjords and geothermal resources, or because they went hell-for-leather down the road of nuclear technology and all of its components.But that's just not a realistic position. We can't remove fossil fuels from the mix overnight - it's totally unrealistic.
Iceland would be the best example of the former, followed by Norway, whereas France is the best example of the latter. All have rates of non-fossil supply of 85% or better.
Do you realise that this could be taken to silly extremes. Food items are taxed less than most other commodities in Ireland, 13.5%, whereas I think its 22% for goods and a whole lot of extra taxes on various categories of goods, alcohol, tobacco, cars, fuel etc. Does that mean that food is "subsidised" by the State simply because they take less tax? How about say a can of Coke vs a Bulmers? Or a fully-paid fare on an unregulated bus service vs a trip in a car with taxed transport fuel?If a government taxes product A, but does not tax an alternative product, B, then B has effectively been subsidised.
That's very simple - the rise of the Left. There is no logical reason for a change of course in France right now, as you can hear from the people who didn't vote for the Socialist president with his 75% taxes, nuclear limitation and reprehensible personal life.No, I just don't think it's feasible. I mean, if the French system is the model we should all be following, then why are the French moving away from nuclear?
We're not exactly spoiled for choice when it comes to good ideas for power generation, by and large all forms of power are either dirty, expensive, unreliable, or limited by geography. Throw in other energy needs like motor/heating fuel and you have all these issues plus wars and meddling between countries etc. It's a mess and if there was something better like Fusion, free rotating magnets, petrol substitution from artificial photosynthesis or something I would be behind that instead in a heartbeat.But interesting that you should point out the potentially high cost of renewables, but completely overlook the potentially huge cost of nuclear.
What about all the other means we have of generating electricity?
One thing I've learned as I got older - I don't have the solution to all the worlds problems. So I don't know about all these other states in the world or "the UK in particular" or a lot of stuff like that, though I don't think the UK has annexed another nations territory recently. Hell, given the paralells between the history of Eastern Ukraine and Northern Ireland, I don't even have the answer to that. Nobody does.So you want the EU to break trade links with every state in the world that has engaged in dodgy dealings overseas? Wouldn’t that mean the EU would probably have to sever ties with most countries in the world? And let’s not forget that there are several EU states (the UK in particular) whose foreign policies leave a lot to be desired.
But I do feel very strongly that it is extremely irresponsible to arbitrarily leave our energy security in the hands of people in Moscow at the present time. We may not be able to avoid needing gas for heating, cooking etc, nor oil for transport, but for electricity we have other choices. I think we've seen enough to conclude that the Russians' behaviour has been beneath reprehensible and that opposition to reliance on them would be similar in character to that of the Anti-Apartheid Dunnes strikers back in '84. More to the point, given that there are other nations in a similarly weakened state post-USSR - Estonia comes to mind - any factor that may potentially threaten those nations should be regarded as most grave.
I agree in part, but the problem is that this argument really only works in a vaccum. We have problems both real and forecasted, that make it much more complicated. Politics, for one, and the forecasted threat of Anthrophogenic Climate Change/Global Warming or whatever its called these days. Some of the figures and claims that I've read over time are quite alarming. "Screwed up climate, droughts in some places, monsoons in others, the 3rd world to be hit the hardest." "We need to cut CO2 emissions by 80% or 90% from todays levels by 2050." "Humanity needs to be carbon-negative by the end of the century" "It could reach a tipping-point and become an unstoppable chain reaction." "Every kilogram of CO2 brings us closer to catastrophe."It’s all about finding the optimal mix that results in affordable electricity, while minimising ecological impact.
The solutions often proposed are no less alarming. Ban lightbulbs. Ban patio heaters. "Carbon tax" cars. Increase fuel taxes. Increase costs for energy heavy businesses like steel mills. Lower speed limits (or introduce them as was proposed for German Autobahns), and have motorist hostile policy everywhere generally. Have governments give individuals legally-binding "carbon allowances." Painful medicine I'm sure you would agree.
I say all this for one simple reason. If a fraction of the fears of climate change are justified, or tenth of what has been proposed in various quarters to address it are now required, then this extreme urgency must be reflected in your "optimal mix." Between that and the politics of energy, any electricity must be framed by two key questions.- Does it reduce our reliance on thermofossil electricity to the greatest possible extent?
- Does it make us energy independent, or failing that leave us dependent only on nations with which we have an equal and friendly standing (e.g. Canada, Australia, fellow EU nations).
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Can the whole planet do what those countries have done? Can Europe even?Thing is, some countries have more or less done it...
It sure could, but tax breaks are widely accepted as a form of indirect subsidy.Do you realise that this could be taken to silly extremes.
How about cost? For example, I’m sure the French electorate are monitoring EDF’s involvement in the Hinkley Point project with great interest.That's very simple - the rise of the Left. There is no logical reason for a change of course in France right now...
You don’t think Ireland should have broken trade relations with the UK when the former invaded Afghanistan and Iraq? I’d call that a double standard.One thing I've learned as I got older - I don't have the solution to all the worlds problems. So I don't know about all these other states in the world or "the UK in particular" or a lot of stuff like that, though I don't think the UK has annexed another nations territory recently.
Indeed, although I’ve not heard of any reputable organisation proposing such “solutions”.The solutions often proposed are no less alarming. Ban lightbulbs. Ban patio heaters. "Carbon tax" cars. Increase fuel taxes. Increase costs for energy heavy businesses like steel mills. Lower speed limits (or introduce them as was proposed for German Autobahns), and have motorist hostile policy everywhere generally. Have governments give individuals legally-binding "carbon allowances." Painful medicine I'm sure you would agree.
I see. So where’s all this high-grade uranium going to come from that will allow the whole World to go nuclear?- Does it reduce our reliance on thermofossil electricity to the greatest possible extent?
- Does it make us energy independent, or failing that leave us dependent only on nations with which we have an equal and friendly standing (e.g. Canada, Australia, fellow EU nations).
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Perhaps, but as far as I am concerned, less tax is just that: the government taking less of your money.It sure could, but tax breaks are widely accepted as a form of indirect subsidy.
I'd call that picking your battles. None of us could have prevented the war in Afghanistan because that was started on Sept 11th 2001 by Al Queda who had been explicitly sheltered and given sanctuary by the Taliban. As for the Iraq mess, responding to that would have required not just Ireland (because we're part of the EU) but most of Europe cutting trade links not just with the U.K. but also the United States. All of this while it is actually possible that both countries geniunely believed bad intel about a possible threat. Do you really that would have ended well, either for us or anyone else?You don’t think Ireland should have broken trade relations with the UK when the former invaded Afghanistan and Iraq? I’d call that a double standard.
No, of course not, that's why when you recognise that you don't have all the answers, you decide what you CAN do. Like the Dunnes Stores strikers in '84. There was plenty of dodgy stuff going on back then too I'm sure, but they focused on something they could actually do something about, i.e. Apartheid. Were they guilty of "double standards" too?Indeed, although I’ve not heard of any reputable organisation proposing such “solutions”.- The U.S. already has a ban on all incandescent lightbulbs, the E.U. has restrictions.
- Members of the European Parliament made some sort of non-binding vote to ban patio heaters all across Europe.
- Motoring taxes are now almost entirely carbon based. VRT, Motor tax, extra duties on fuel etc.
- Steel mills must participate in "cap-and-trade" and that has created perverse incentives to 'mothball' steel mills and lay off the workers to cash in on carbon credits instead of actually making steel, as happened to a steelworks in the UK some years back.
- The policy of the German SPD, that nations second largest political party, calls for the abolition of the "advisory" 130kph speed limit on uncongested autobahns and their replacement with normal (mandatory) limits ... for environmental reasons, of course.
- Personal Carbon Allowances are already provided for in legislation in the United Kingdom by environmental law enacted in 2008 and could be activated at any time. One organisation presumably very happy about this is the Carbon Trust, who ran a trial study with some volunteers to prepare a strategy for PCAs. This part is most interesting:
The qualitative findings of the study are fascinating. Consumers did act to reduce food waste and energy bills, but other areas, such as holidays and meat consumption, proved harder to address.
The whole world cannot go nuclear, because as the Chernobyl accident showed us, you must have a competent and politically stable government running the territory where the plant is to be located. That limits us primarily to North America, Europe, Australia/NZ and some Asian nations.Can the whole planet do what those countries have done? Can Europe even?
I see. So where’s all this high-grade uranium going to come from that will allow the whole World to go nuclear?
The second issue is one of Uranium supply, and I wish I could answer this more thoroughly, but there is so much bad policy surrounding the issue that it is impossible to determine the potential availability of nuclear fuel. Sometimes exploration/mining is banned for ideological reasons, like the Green Party scuppering two energy exploration licenses in Dongeal almost from the minute the clowns took office towards the end of the last decade. Nuclear fuel reprocessing offers the potential to multiply 60-fold the amount of energy recovered from a given amount of Uranium but much fuel is wastefully used on a "once through" basis with no reporocessing. The reasons for this are numerous but (yet again) the involvement of Left-wing politicians is normally a large factor, e.g. presidents Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama in the United States. At minimum I think, all spent fuel not recycled should be stored in such a way as to allow it to be retrieved and recycled if and when the need/desire to do that should arise.
On the bright side, India is looking at the use of Thorium because they've got loads of the stuff and need as much energy as they can get for over a billion people. If they make a go of it, we in Europe should take "last movers advantage" and copy them :pac:0 -
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On the bright side, India is looking at the use of Thorium because they've got loads of the stuff and need as much energy as they can get for over a billion people. If they make a go of it, we in Europe should take "last movers advantage" and copy them :pac:
They're also looking to the power of sun - and plan to massively expand their solar power output within 5 years0 -
Splitting hairs.I'd call that picking your battles.
Utter nonsense.The U.S. already has a ban on all incandescent lightbulbs…
That was six years ago, but patio heaters are still readily available.Members of the European Parliament made some sort of non-binding vote to ban patio heaters all across Europe.
They were previously based on engine size – not exactly a radical shift.Motoring taxes are now almost entirely carbon based.
You’ll have to forgive me for being sceptical of anything on a UKIP website, but I’ve already said I’m not convinced of the need or effectiveness of carbon taxes or credits.Steel mills must participate in "cap-and-trade" and that has created perverse incentives to 'mothball' steel mills and lay off the workers to cash in on carbon credits instead of actually making steel, as happened to a steelworks in the UK some years back.
Come off it. That whole debate dates back to the 70s oil crisis.The policy of the German SPD, that nations second largest political party, calls for the abolition of the "advisory" 130kph speed limit on uncongested autobahns and their replacement with normal (mandatory) limits ... for environmental reasons, of course.
Further legislation would almost certainly be required.Personal Carbon Allowances are already provided for in legislation in the United Kingdom by environmental law enacted in 2008 and could be activated at any time.
The extreme left, maybe.So the picture that I'm getting from the Environmental-Left is simply this: Anthrophogenic Climate Change is such an extreme danger that we have to become vegetarians, forget about having a foreign holiday ever again, accept extreme limitations and crippling costs on our choices on transport, lighting, heating, employment etc.
But who cares? None of what you have listed is likely to come to pass.
In other words, you have no idea whether there is enough fuel to go around, but you still think the entire developed world should become heavily dependent on nuclear power?The second issue is one of Uranium supply, and I wish I could answer this more thoroughly, but there is so much bad policy surrounding the issue that it is impossible to determine the potential availability of nuclear fuel.
Thorium-based nuclear power has been at the heart of a variety of research projects since the 60s, but we’re still waiting for the technology to be commericalised.On the bright side, India is looking at the use of Thorium…
I’m not going to hold my breath.0 -
Sorry for "posting and running" but I had some serious problems the past week or so
Funny someone should mention Spain, I just got a link to this recently which explains the current Spanish situation:Spain are world-leaders in solar and wind generation, but their electricity prices are only marginally higher than France’s, according to your link.
What gives?
http://www.thelocal.es/20140511/sun-sets-on-spanish-solar-power-dreams
Solar energy was cheap in Spain because it was subsidised directly by the government. But Spain is in an austerity cruch and can't afford the subsidies anymore. And that's left a lot of small investors in a serious bind.
And back to the topic of the reality that these things are not just cost-ineffective. Even if they were free, they would leave us dependent on, I would argue effectively subjugated by, a country whose actions are similar in character to the early years of Nazi Germany, and which has attacked its neighbours under justifications that leave other nations (such as Estonia) in a very vulnerable position.
All the while driving up our energy costs and as often as not, raising our supposidly crucial CO2 levels far beyond what they should be bringing us closer to the global warming armagaddeon we're warned about, and threating our power grids with unnecessary instability.
Am I the only one that has a serious problem with this?0 -
We (Ireland) should try to be as energy self sufficient as soon as possible.
It's literally a matter of national security.
I'm fully in favour of fracking, turf cutting, tax incentives to oil/gas companies, green subsidies ect.0 -
Russian gas is cheap and plentiful finding an alternative source for the percentage they supply is easier said than done. The EU should continue to deal with the Russians Vlad is a business man he likes money and his gas is cheap no need to look elsewhere at the moment Russia has plenty. European countries are making deals with the Russians bi-lateral agreements basically sidestepping EU sanctions there isn't a proper consensus when push comes to shove between European countries on the issue of Russian energy and probably won't be for a while yet if ever the pipelines are still being built. Russia is not going to turn off the tap once we don't do anything stupid. Energy contracts are long term between fifteen and twenty five years so things will roll on as they are. Nuclear power isn't exactly an alternative to Russian energy dependence. Nuclear power plants require uranium . Russia supplies over 35 percent of this to EU plants. They also have lots of cheap coal it's a just a country blessed and rich in resources. Long term in Ireland we can look at different things perhaps one day we will discover a larger oil or gas deposit, I do like wind energy maybe we could do more things there. Don't piss the Russians off and we won't have a problem in the EU.0
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Even if we accept this (and I certainly do not) the Russians have been looking for other markets for their gas, namely China and the Asia-Pacific region.Russian gas is cheap and plentiful finding an alternative source for the percentage they supply is easier said than done. The EU should continue to deal with the Russians Vlad is a business man he likes money and his gas is cheap no need to look elsewhere at the moment Russia has plenty. European countries are making deals with the Russians bi-lateral agreements basically sidestepping EU sanctions there isn't a proper consensus when push comes to shove between European countries on the issue of Russian energy and probably won't be for a while yet if ever the pipelines are still being built. Russia is not going to turn off the tap once we don't do anything stupid. Energy contracts are long term between fifteen and twenty five years so things will roll on as they are. Nuclear power isn't exactly an alternative to Russian energy dependence. Nuclear power plants require uranium . Russia supplies over 35 percent of this to EU plants. They also have lots of cheap coal it's a just a country blessed and rich in resources. Long term in Ireland we can look at different things perhaps one day we will discover a larger oil or gas deposit, I do like wind energy maybe we could do more things there. Don't piss the Russians off and we won't have a problem in the EU.
So even if I could accept that your suggestion of continuing the status quo, the Russians might not - 10 years from now we could be 500 million people in Western Europe (getting poorer) competing for the same imports as 2 billion people in Asia, all of them getting richer. Not to mention that Russia has a lot more in common with China etc than they do Western Europe.
It really requires the suspension of disbelief to take any of this seriously.0 -
Russia is not going to turn off the tap once we don't do anything stupid.
Russia relies heavily on gas income, natural resources are the country's lifeblood. As I've mentioned before the Russian economy is projected to grow by 1% this year.. that's before any effects of growing international isolation0 -
Even if we accept this (and I certainly do not) the Russians have been looking for other markets for their gas, namely China and the Asia-Pacific region.
So even if I could accept that your suggestion of continuing the status quo, the Russians might not - 10 years from now we could be 500 million people in Western Europe (getting poorer) competing for the same imports as 2 billion people in Asia, all of them getting richer. Not to mention that Russia has a lot more in common with China etc than they do Western Europe.
It really requires the suspension of disbelief to take any of this seriously.
On page one of this thread you compared Russia to nazi Germany , irony aside considering the western backed nazis within Ukraine, it requires the suspension of disbelief for me to take statements like that seriously and I dont. Its actually quite simple, a stable Europe requires a stable relationship with Russia and there wont be a problem. So ask yourself who is the driving force behind the push to isolate and offend the Russians and why further down the line they may not want to continue with the status quo. That would be the Americans interfering in European affairs when really they should stay out of it, its none of their business they have their own reasons for "caring" about Ukraine and creating hostility between Europe and Russia. It would make sense for us here in the EU to have closer ties with the Russians and I believe the Russians are open to this. Though you cant blame them for looking toward China when the EU at the behest of the US is acting in an amateurishly hostile way what did you expect them to do.
That deal has been ten years in the making. because of EU actions the Russians will view us as a somewhat unreliable partner and in turn they pushed the deal through with the Chinese, probably conceding on the price disagreement they had to make it happen. It makes perfect sense for them to do that. Alternatively speaking, Russia as opposed to the middle east, long term is a much more stable option as a supplier of energy. This idea that the Americans can swoop in and meet demands is pure fantasy. The have neither the infrastructure nor probably the supply to meet demand and that is without even taking the economic cost of it getting here. There is nothing wrong with attempting to diversify EU energy supply though how is it going to be done. In Ireland we import our gas from the UK and Norway. The British are not even sure how much of their gas imports originate from Russia via a Dutch pipeline between 0 and 15 percent something like that as the pipelines are all interconnected.
Short term the Russian/Chinese deal doesnt mean much for the EU, imports between us and the Russians will still be significant and we will continue to be reliant on one another. When the China/Russia deal comes into play in four years Russia will only be exporting a fraction to China some four times less than EU imports. As the years move forward its possible Russian exports to Europe may well drop to maybe 25%. The Russians are splitting their risks its normal behavior considering the circumstances, long term its symbolic highlighting Russian refusal to rely on EU business and why wouldnt they with the signs and actions they have been receiving. Some countries geographically close to Russia with long term links like Germany/Hungary and Bulgaria will continue to have good relations with them I would imagine as it is in their interests to do so. Only yesterday Bulgaria under American pressure decided to suspend the implementation of the Russian south stream gas pipeline, a pipeline which is an alternative route for supply of Russian gas for European countries should something happen the existing pipeline connecting Ukraine to Europe. How long this will last I dont know but its certainly politically motivated. The EU supports this action why they do is beyond me its akin to potentially shooting ourselves in the foot a dumb undertaking indeed. So the Russians appear to want to do business and they are coming up against obstructions. Personally speaking I would like to cut the Americans out of the equation and tell to mind their own business, to then not adnit Ukraine into the EU let them be and to continue to deal with the Russians who are open for business and who I believe want good working relations with Europe. American motives are harder to nail down but I believe they are up to something they always have an angle. Sure we can attempt to diversify energy supplies of course we can lets see if it can be done and lets see what happens Im not against that. For now though the EU should continue to deal with the Russians though if they continue to act like twats that decision may well be taken out of their hands.Russia relies heavily on gas income, natural resources are the country's lifeblood. As I've mentioned before the Russian economy is projected to grow by 1% this year.. that's before any effects of growing international isolation
With regard to their energy exports they dont seem to concerned about international isolation when they know of the divides among some of the European nations on the issue.0 -
With regard to their energy exports they dont seem to concerned about international isolation when they know of the divides among some of the European nations on the issue.
Oil and gas account for almost 60% of total Russian exports, with gas the lion's share of that, their economy is heavily dependent on those revenues
60+% of their main export - gas, goes to the EU..
The EU is currently engaged in a frantic effort to shore up new suppliers - including emerging liquified nat. gas market, with big future exporters like Qatar and the US
Russia is politically isolated on the intl. stage, economic growth grinding to a halt this year, this isn't some sleeping superpower, remember they have a GDP barely higher than Italy
Despite Putin's carefully stage-managed veneer of cool and the recent wave of nationalistism.. I'd say there's more than a few economists sweating over there0 -
Oil and gas account for almost 60% of total Russian exports, with gas the lion's share of that, their economy is heavily dependent on those revenues
60+% of their main export - gas, goes to the EU..
The EU is currently engaged in a frantic effort to shore up new suppliers - including emerging liquified nat. gas market, with big future exporters like Qatar and the US
Russia is politically isolated on the intl. stage, economic growth grinding to a halt this year, this isn't some sleeping superpower, remember they have a GDP barely higher than Italy
Despite Putin's carefully stage-managed veneer of cool and the recent wave of nationalistism.. I'd say there's more than a few economists sweating over there
Not just economists I would think there are all sorts of people sweating over there from average individuals to business people, investors all sorts not sure that Putin cares much about international isolation as he sees the situation for what it is. I would question what happens next. Is the west going to attempt to freeze the Russians out of the monetary system. If diplomacy fails what comes next will be an economic and currency war this is already starting to take shape. Though if the west continues on its current course with the Russians ( our way or the high way this is their position ) they really need to be prepared for what might happen. If these events begin to unfold I dont see Vlad blinking or taking a single step back I think he has crossed the line.
In the near term I cant see how Russians preeminent position in the gas market can be threatened as always it comes down to economics. long term maybe but not anytime soon. Qatar is tiny yet is the second largest exporter of gas. The thing about Qatar is that they know they can never overtake the Russians as Europes top gas seller because of the massive market share the Russians already possess. Every EU country faces their own individual geopolitical and geographical challenges when trying to source alternative gas supplies for example energy corridors and infrastructure. LNG infrastructure costs a lot of money with plenty of European governments cash strapped near term can they afford the investment some of them maybe some of them I would say no. though an even bigger issue would be the price. Qatar exports predominantly to Asia obviously making it far less dependent on EU exports. because of the Russian market share it can sell its gas at maybe 50% below what the Qataris could offer. So the Russians will likely sign deals with Europe at rates Qatar just wont find acceptable. They have their deals in the Asian market if it doesnt make economic sense they wont deal. and European governments wont have an incentive either or probably the ability. Even Poland who would be one of the most vocal EU countries when it comes to the issue of Russian energy are still signed up to a deal with Gazprom till 2022 and they intend to honor it. Sometime in the future Qatar and Europe may well be in a position to do more business though short term cant see it happening. the same with the Americans. If the EU can source gas cheaper than what they Russians are offering or find a way of diversifying I would be all for it just dont see it happening anytime soon.0 -
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.... and Estonia for example. I saw the Estonian foreign minister Urmaet Paets interviewed on BBC News Hardtalk programme recently. When he was talking about finding alternatives to Russian energy imports the interviewer (Zeinab Badawi) said that won't happen overnight and will take years and "you know it". In fact Badawi made him look quite naive, he wasn't being very realistic. I actually felt a little sorry for him by the end of the interview as he appeared quite a forlorn figure. I got the impression the EU dream hasn't quite worked out for Estonia with "Big Brother" next door still having a huge economic influence.Even Poland who would be one of the most vocal EU countries when it comes to the issue of Russian energy are still signed up to a deal with Gazprom till 2022 and they intend to honor it. Sometime in the future Qatar and Europe may well be in a position to do more business though short term cant see it happening. the same with the Americans. If the EU can source gas cheaper than what they Russians are offering or find a way of diversifying I would be all for it just dont see it happening anytime soon.
How much would the price of gas go up for you and me if Europe switched to imports of say liquified US shale gas? I'd rather not think about it - bills are high enough as it is!!0 -
Elmer Blooker wrote: ».... and Estonia for example. I saw the Estonian foreign minister Urmaet Paets interviewed on BBC News Hardtalk programme recently. When he was talking about finding alternatives to Russian energy imports the interviewer (Zeinab Badawi) said that won't happen overnight and will take years and "you know it". In fact Badawi made him look quite naive, he wasn't being very realistic. I actually felt a little sorry for him by the end of the interview as he appeared quite a forlorn figure. I got the impression the EU dream hasn't quite worked out for Estonia with "Big Brother" next door still having a huge economic influence.
How much would the price of gas go up for you and me if Europe switched to imports of say liquified US shale gas? I'd rather not think about it - bills are high enough as it is!!
All things taken into consideration it isnt practical to ship gas from America to Europe its an oversimplified attempt at a solution I think short term certainly there is zero potential. It would be hard to put a price on it but I would say maybe double though cant say that for sure. It would take years to build the required facilities both sides of the Atlantic to ship and receive it and then there is the building of the tankers. and even if everything gets built there would be no guarantee US gas would be price competitive enough to reach Europe as you have to factor in the free market. Asia pays more for gas, US gas would have to compete against the likes of Russia and Norway in Europe would they be competitive enough long term to make it worth their while probably not and a lot of that would be because of transport costs. Although if the Americans started shipping their gas to Aisa that would make that market more competitive and countries from the middle east and Africa who would otherwise just export there might decide to get more involved in Europe. Lots of ifs and maybes and nothing for sure.
Estonia is interesting did Paets talk about the proposed lng terminals and pipeline between Estonia and Finland? ..Those northern European countries have long harsh Winters its really important that they have a stable affordable supply of gas to keep everything ticking over during the coldness it really does limit their options when dealing with the Russians. If the terminals and pipelines get the go ahead it will cost close to a billion dollars half of which will come from an EU structural fund giving the Baltic states direct access to the global lng markets.0 -
All things taken into consideration it isnt practical to ship gas from America to Europe its an oversimplified attempt at a solution I think short term certainly there is zero potential. It would be hard to put a price on it but I would say maybe double though cant say that for sure. It would take years to build the required facilities both sides of the Atlantic to ship and receive it and then there is the building of the tankers.
It's been underway for several years in some cases. Estonia have started to build their terminal - their neighbour is projected to finish their terminal this year. Qatar and Libya are also lining up as exporters.
Many countries in the region are determined to shed their dependance on just one source of gas - which, as we can see, is not good when international political events can affect supply0 -
It's been underway for several years in some cases. Estonia have started to build their terminal - their neighbour is projected to finish their terminal this year. Qatar and Libya are also lining up as exporters.
Many countries in the region are determined to shed their dependance on just one source of gas - which, as we can see, is not good when international political events can affect supply
Good. Lets hope its a case of competition and not one of collaboration energy isnt just about money its also geopolitics and influence. The Russians would prefer that the Qataris stick to the Asian market and let them concentrate on Europe in return Russia would hold back in Asia. Im not fussed where the gas comes from once its cheap and available though Qatar already has long term contracts in Asia and south America it remains to be seen how much exactly they will be in a position to export short/medium term.0 -
The Russians are also building their own terminal in Kaliningrad.It's been underway for several years in some cases. Estonia have started to build their terminal - their neighbour is projected to finish their terminal this year. Qatar and Libya are also lining up as exporters.
Many countries in the region are determined to shed their dependance on just one source of gas - which, as we can see, is not good when international political events can affect supply
Hypothetical situation of course in the future: The Russians make an offer to Estonia (and Finland plus the other two Baltic states) - we'll sell you the gas for 70% less than what you are paying Qatar.0 -
Qatar a country which funds insurgents in Syria, Libya, sends in troops to kill and suppress pro-democracy demonstrators in Bahrain, and suppresses democracy in its own country.0
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Could just bomb Russia & steal their energy.0
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Russia relies heavily on gas income, natural resources are the country's lifeblood. As I've mentioned before the Russian economy is projected to grow by 1% this year.. that's before any effects of growing international isolation
When compared with the broader picture, Russia's economy has been growing at a very healthy rate for the last few years (recession aside). The 1% growth rate is obviously a minor slump.0 -
But what would be the catch?Elmer Blooker wrote: »The Russians are also building their own terminal in Kaliningrad.
Hypothetical situation of course in the future: The Russians make an offer to Estonia (and Finland plus the other two Baltic states) - we'll sell you the gas for 70% less than what you are paying Qatar.
Re-read my post, I compared Russia's behaviour to that of the early years of Nazi Germany.On page one of this thread you compared Russia to nazi Germany , irony aside considering the western backed nazis within Ukraine, it requires the suspension of disbelief for me to take statements like that seriously and I don't.
Russia has invaded two of its neighbors and taken their territory. Hitler did the same before 1939.
The justification for both was almost identical. Hitler was "re-uniting the German people" Putin was "protecting Russian people."
This is why I fear for Estonia - because just as Stalin and co. committed genocide against the Ukrainians, which is the basis for the current aggression against them, they also did it, but with somewhat less success, against Estonia.
Does it not make sense to want to draw a line in the sand with this carry-on?0 -
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Russian gas is cheap and plentiful finding an alternative source for the percentage they supply is easier said than done. The EU should continue to deal with the Russians Vlad is a business man he likes money and his gas is cheap no need to look elsewhere at the moment Russia has plenty. European countries are making deals with the Russians bi-lateral agreements basically sidestepping EU sanctions there isn't a proper consensus when push comes to shove between European countries on the issue of Russian energy and probably won't be for a while yet if ever the pipelines are still being built. Russia is not going to turn off the tap once we don't do anything stupid. Energy contracts are long term between fifteen and twenty five years so things will roll on as they are. Nuclear power isn't exactly an alternative to Russian energy dependence. Nuclear power plants require uranium . Russia supplies over 35 percent of this to EU plants. They also have lots of cheap coal it's a just a country blessed and rich in resources. Long term in Ireland we can look at different things perhaps one day we will discover a larger oil or gas deposit, I do like wind energy maybe we could do more things there. Don't piss the Russians off and we won't have a problem in the EU.
yes, and long-term nuclear fusion might become available as an infinite energy source...europe should definitely invest massively in research here...0
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