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Brit nuclear reactor planned for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    Reality check on the cost of Nuclear.

    Hinkley is costing £16Bn

    As recently as March they were giving the bad news that it had gone up from £10Bn or even 12Bn.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9954515/Government-extends-new-nuclear-power-station-timetable-by-five-years.html


    The strike price is now twice the wholesale price, and it's indexed linked, for 35 years.

    Since there is more to the cost of electricity than the cost of fuel even a doubling of the cost of fossil fuel won't bring the wholesale price up to the price agreed for Nuclear.


    This is not an isolated incident. The usual excuse given is that the value of the currency drops over the time they take to build, net present value and all that. Also delays are costly because of the extra interest accrued. Seriously financing is one of the biggest costs of Nuclear power.

    Most of the delays and cost escalation are caused by the experimental nature of the reactor design as has happened in Finland
    OR
    by ludicrous safety ratcheting forced on utilities by the anti nuke lobby [whose real agenda is to stop nuclear altogether]
    I'm thinking of forming a "Revenge for Carnsore" group with the intention of stopping the current Ponzi snake oil peddlers proposal to destroy the midlands with wind turbines.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Most of the delays and cost escalation are caused by the experimental nature of the reactor design as has happened in Finland
    as you can probably guess I'm going to go with something like "after 70 years of building reactors they still can't do it right"

    by ludicrous safety ratcheting forced on utilities by the anti nuke lobby [whose real agenda is to stop nuclear altogether]
    If by ludicrous you mean safety measures implemented in response to constant failings in the industry ?

    http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2012/EU_Stress_tests_poor
    The EU-sponsored stress tests conducted on 134 nuclear reactors point to a myriad of potential safety hazards, notably in Britain, France and Spain,
    ...
    By Bellona’s estimates, at an average cost of €20 billion to upgrade European nuclear power plants, each of Europe’s 68 nuclear stations – in a figure based on the funding being spread evenly – need at least €300 million in upgrades to meet safety specifications that the leaked report indicated they are lacking.

    Bellona President Frederic Hauge called this a “shocking” amount of money, “enough,” he said, “to build five mega nuclear power plants a year” based on an average nuclear power plant construction cost of €3 billion.

    The bit about €3Bn for a nuclear plant is just laughable in light of what the UK have agreed to pay.


    The US is worse, they've recently released statistics and some plants have had hundreds of regulatory breaches over time.

    I'm thinking of forming a "Revenge for Carnsore" group with the intention of stopping the current Ponzi snake oil peddlers proposal to destroy the midlands with wind turbines.
    Bord na Mona are launching a billion euro project on old bogs.

    It's chicken feed compared to the amounts squandered on nuclear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    as you can probably guess I'm going to go with something like "after 70 years of building reactors they still can't do it right"

    Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather!:eek:



    If by ludicrous you mean safety measures implemented in response to constant failings in the industry ?

    No... by ludicrous I mean a safety review which ordered that all welds on one particular plant be inspected by x-ray.
    Having done so they get a negative report because the welds on the stainless steel steps leading up to the canteen store room hadn't been x-rayed.
    This of course made it's way eventually into your famous book of Breaches where it is added to the thousands of other pieces of horse**** used to blacken the name of an industry that has an unequalled safety record.


    http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2012/EU_Stress_tests_poor
    The bit about €3Bn for a nuclear plant is just laughable in light of what the UK have agreed to pay.
    Bellona eh:rolleyes:
    Another example of being sued by the devil and having the court sitting in hell.
    The US is worse, they've recently released statistics and some plants have had hundreds of regulatory breaches over time.
    20 % of American electricity produced by nuclear over the last 30 years and not a man lost.
    More people were killed at Woodstock than Three mile Island

    Bord na Mona are launching a billion euro project on old bogs.

    It's chicken feed compared to the amounts squandered on nuclear.
    Bord Na Mona can waste their money on whirly gigs if they choose so long as they stay on the cutaway bogs and don't encroach on the rest of our countryside.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    [/COLOR]
    Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather!:eek:
    LOL :)





    No... by ludicrous I mean a safety review which ordered that all welds on one particular plant be inspected by x-ray.
    This is absolutely essential for critical areas. I knew a radiologist and on some storage tanks they used only inspect the T welds where three plates overlapped on the basis they were the most critical. But everyone knew this so the best welders did those bits and the whatever about the rest.

    Having done so they get a negative report because the welds on the stainless steel steps leading up to the canteen store room hadn't been x-rayed.
    daft if true

    This of course made it's way eventually into your famous book of Breaches where it is added to the thousands of other pieces of horse**** used to blacken the name of an industry that has an unequalled safety record.
    Explain that to the people of the exclusion zones.


    http://www.theoaklandpress.com/general-news/20130311/safety-breaches-seen-at-us-nuclear-reactors
    Nearly one in six U.S. nuclear reactors experienced safety breaches last year due in part to poor oversight by federal regulators, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

    Incidents including a cooling water leak and unusual wear on steam generator tubes were reported at 16 units owned by companies including Entergy and Edison International, the Cambridge, Mass.-based environmental group said in its third annual report on reactor safety released Thursday.

    "The NRC has repeatedly failed to enforce essential safety regulations," wrote David Lochbaum, director of the group's Nuclear Safety Project and author of the study.

    Since the 2010 report, almost 40 percent of the 104 U.S. reactors have had safety breaches serious enough to require the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to dispatch inspection teams, the group said. The agency, in response, said none of the incidents posed a risk to public safety.


    some recent incidents
    http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/prelim-notice/2013/


  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭Greensleeves


    France surely demonstrates that it is possible to have a safe nuclear power industry with reasonably priced electricity and no hysteria about blackouts.

    I'm in the UK at the moment and my head is wrecked listening to all the whingeing about energy: cost of it, potential lack of it, etc. etc. I also spend a lot of time in France where energy seems to be a non-issue. There is a powerful French anti-wind group (Vent de Colère) and protestors successfully saw off fracking but nuclear power seems to be just taken for granted.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    France surely demonstrates that it is possible to have a safe nuclear power industry with reasonably priced electricity and no hysteria about blackouts.

    I'm in the UK at the moment and my head is wrecked listening to all the whingeing about energy: cost of it, potential lack of it, etc. etc. I also spend a lot of time in France where energy seems to be a non-issue. There is a powerful French anti-wind group (Vent de Colère) and protestors successfully saw off fracking but nuclear power seems to be just taken for granted.

    Any moment now Captain Midnight will be on to tell us what a dangerous , undemocratic place France really is.
    How Germany is either subsidising them or, on the other hand, robbing them blind
    and how it takes the output of 3 power stations to service the other 50.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    France surely demonstrates that it is possible to have a safe nuclear power industry with reasonably priced electricity and no hysteria about blackouts.
    Oh dear

    Fukushima wasn't the first time a nuclear power plant was flooded despite warnings about the site
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Blayais_Nuclear_Power_Plant_flood

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superph%C3%A9nix
    Superphénix cost 9.1Bn Francs and produced 1.8 Bn worth of electricity

    Like I keep mentioning the French plan for sites with two reactors was to use the other one for backup power... It's why EU reactors need €20Bn of safety improvements.


    If the French nukes are so good why are they moving from over 80% power from them to less than 50% ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭Greensleeves


    If the French nukes are so good why are they moving from over 80% power from them to less than 50% ?

    I have no idea, do you?

    I am genuinely puzzled by the French nuclear thing. In conversations with people in France it has only come up once: an off-the-grid, self-sufficient bloke told me that it was a conspiracy to generate too much power and sell it cheaply so that people would use lots of it. As an anti-consumerist he was very against it. For someone like him PV was the way to go. In fact PV seems to be very popular in France. There is some scheme where you take out a loan for say 15 or 20k and install panels on your roof (or the roof of a big farm building); the repayments are met by what the grid pays you and in x number of years you own the (now money-generating) panels outright. I wonder if the take up of PV in schemes like this makes a meaningful contribution to overall power supply?

    But nuclear just seems to be taken for granted and doesn't seem to cause anxiety.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,929 ✭✭✭✭Ash.J.Williams


    mike65 wrote: »
    Just as well the island of Ireland is famously earthquake/tsunami free.
    that sounds like famous last words to me!! "ah sure the beatles will never catch on"


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    that sounds like famous last words to me!! "ah sure the beatles will never catch on"

    If I were you I'd be evacuating Cork and Dublin straight away...just in case.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    LOL :)
    This of course made it's way eventually into your famous book of Breaches where it is added to the thousands of other pieces of horse**** used to blacken the name of an industry that has an unequalled safety record.

    Explain that to the people of the exclusion zones.


    The misinformation and exaggeration about the dangers associated with nuclear radiation are way over the top and need to be tackled head on.
    Apart from a few hotspots and the area immediately around the stricken plants, the Japanese people would have been better served if they had been allowed to return to their homes a few months after the plant was brought under control.
    They have been exposed to far more hardship sleeping on gymnasium floors than they would ever encounter from the levels of radiation extant around
    Fukushima.
    Try reading this:http://atomicinsights.com/radiation/


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The misinformation and exaggeration about the dangers associated with nuclear radiation are way over the top and need to be tackled head on.
    So you are sticking with the nuclear industry line that it's all under control ?

    There are two ways of discussing this.

    When things are working as intended the workers are exposed to very little radiation. So little that the problem with radon in homes was discovered when a worker triggered very sensitive alarms on the way in to work.

    Or you can accept the fact that there are a lot of people who can't go home. And that a Fact not an opinion.


    It's really simple safe, clean nuclear power isn't cheap over the whole lifecycle. And that's against a background of plummeting renewable prices.

    I've discussed this before that fossil fuel recovery will depend more on renewables in the future as EROEI falls. I've also said that I view nuclear as an energy time shift rather than a source of energy (though not in those words - one reason to post is to get my thoughts in order :p)

    To get nuclear power you have to use a lot of fossil fuel to mine and process the initial charge and build. Then you get power, and you aren't using so much fossil fuel (until peak uranium). Then comes decommissioning and long term storage and that's heading into blank cheque territory.


    The US navy have been operating reactors since 1953. Every so often the industry makes noises about small self contained reactors of about 300MW. Which is another way of saying that after 60 years they still haven't commercialised naval reactors. And the number of naval reactors is similar to the number of nuclear power plants so not a lack of experience.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
    Dedicated engineers are striving for excellence inside an industry they are proud of.
    http://www.powermag.com/bruce-nuclear-generating-station-kincardine-ontario-canada/


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
    Dedicated engineers are striving for excellence inside an industry they are proud of.
    http://www.powermag.com/bruce-nuclear-generating-station-kincardine-ontario-canada/
    On Mar. 16, 2012, the CNSC granted permission to lift reactor shutdown guarantees and begin start-up. Criticality was achieved on Apr. 10 for the first time in 17 years.


    http://www.thestar.com/business/2010/11/04/bruce_nuclear_refit_2_billion_over_budget.html
    TransCanada Corp. reported Wednesday that refurbishing two units of the Bruce A nuclear plant has cost $3.8 billion to date.

    And chief financial officer Alex Pourbaix said the final cost of the project is now likely to be $4.8 billion.

    The original cost estimate when the project was announced in 2005 was $2.75 billion.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,934 ✭✭✭robp


    Bord na Mona are launching a billion euro project on old bogs.

    It's chicken feed compared to the amounts squandered on nuclear.

    It isn't useless wasteland. Most were wilderness up till the 1960s. There is a compelling moral argument to restore the midland bogs back to wild land. What BnM did would never be allowed nowadays, and thus the bulk should be ring fenced for environmental restoration.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    In passing, I see that the UK government have agreed a strike price of £92.5 per MW for the new nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point:
    http://www.powermag.com/agreement-sets-stage-for-construction-of-new-nuclear-plant-in-uk/
    And a whopping £155 per MW for the intermittant juice produced by The New London Array offshore wind farm:
    http://www.powermag.com/the-worlds-most-colossal-offshore-


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In passing, I see that the UK government have agreed a strike price of £92.5 per MW for the new nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point:
    http://www.powermag.com/agreement-sets-stage-for-construction-of-new-nuclear-plant-in-uk/
    And a whopping £155 per MW for the intermittant juice produced by The New London Array offshore wind farm:
    http://www.powermag.com/the-worlds-most-colossal-offshore-
    This has been done to death.

    The £155 is only for 15 years. Actually it's not even for 15 years, because it's due to fall to £135 by 2018 and £100 by 2020 with an optimistic target of £90 by then. After 15 years wind will only get wholesale price. And it's offshore wind, the onshore stuff is cheaper.

    Hinkley is getting £92.5 index linked for 15 years and then for another 20 years after that. So offshore wind, which is more expensive than onshore wind, will be cheaper than nuclear in the next 7-8 years, based on the nuclear industry figures, which based on previous performance need to be taken with a large pinch of salt.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10161145/Winds-of-change-blowing-through-UK-energy-as-worlds-biggest-offshore-wind-farm-opens.html


    http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1192964/windeconomics-uk-moves-ahead-electricity-reform
    A 35-year nuclear contract might bring the strike price within reach of £90/MWh, but a 15-year contract would increase the required strike price by about 25%, making it far more expensive than onshore wind, and not far short of the offshore wind price. If the value of the recently announced underwriting of the financing costs of new nuclear build was taken into account, the price of nuclear would probably be more expensive than offshore wind.

    Again a reminder that wind turbine prices are down 1/3rd since 2010 in the US

    and in Oz
    http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/
    The study shows that electricity can be supplied from a new wind farm at a cost of AUD 80/MWh (USD 83), compared to AUD 143/MWh from a new coal plant or AUD 116/MWh from a new baseload gas plant, including the cost of emissions under the Gillard government’s carbon pricing scheme. However even without a carbon price (the most efficient way to reduce economy-wide emissions) wind energy is 14% cheaper than new coal and 18% cheaper than new gas.

    ...
    BNEF’s analysts conclude that by 2020, large-scale solar PV will also be cheaper than coal and gas, when carbon prices are factored in. By 2030, dispatchable renewable generating technologies such as biomass and solar thermal could also be cost-competitive.
    The last bit is interesting dispatchable renewables should be cost-competitive before this nuclear plant is even built :p

    If you have to take one factoid try this , and remember nuclear has even higher capital costs than just about everything apart from hydro
    “New wind is cheaper than building new coal and gas, but cannot compete with old assets that have already been paid off,” Bhavnagri said. “For that reason policy support is still needed to put megawatts in the ground today and build up the skills and experience to de-carbonise the energy system in the long-term.”


    And how do I rephrase it so people understand that excess wind could be easily turned into hydrogen and injected into the natural gas mains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭Greensleeves


    According to yesterday's Telegraph Centrica think that the £155 per MW for offshore wind is too low so they are threatening to pull out of the Race Bank offshore wind farm unless proposed subsidies are significantly increased.

    Interestingly, back in February Centrica abandoned its 20pc stake in Hinkley Point nuclear plant, writing off £231m, after complaining the returns were not attractive.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10423952/Centrica-threatening-to-pull-plug-on-2bn-offshore-wind-farm-plan.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    This has been done to death........................................................................


    And how do I rephrase it so people understand that excess wind could be easily turned into hydrogen and injected into the natural gas mains.

    Well , for a start, you could stop talking down to us as though we were children!


  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭Greensleeves


    Interesting piece in the Guardian yesterday about four US climate scientists urging the development of safer nuclear power. They (James Hansen, Ken Caldeira, Kerry Emanuel, and Tom Wigley) have written an open letter to environmentalists and world leaders saying that wind and solar power are not enough to reduce carbon emissions and that it is time to accept the necessity of nuclear power.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/03/climate-scientists-support-nuclear-power


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Interesting piece in the Guardian yesterday about four US climate scientists urging the development of safer nuclear power. They (James Hansen, Ken Caldeira, Kerry Emanuel, and Tom Wigley) have written an open letter to environmentalists and world leaders saying that wind and solar power are not enough to reduce carbon emissions and that it is time to accept the necessity of nuclear power.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/03/climate-scientists-support-nuclear-power

    James Hansen has been pro-nukes for a very long time. The other three are all involved in geo-engineering solutions to climate change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 286 ✭✭Eoghan Barra


    Macha wrote: »
    James Hansen has been pro-nukes for a very long time. The other three are all involved in geo-engineering solutions to climate change.

    We might be very glad of a backup plan in the future, despite the risks involved. But that's another thread in itself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,708 ✭✭✭Curly Judge


    This has been done to death.

    The £155 is only for 15 years. Actually it's not even for 15 years, because it's due to fall to £135 by 2018 and £100 by 2020 with an optimistic target of £90 by then. After 15 years wind will only get wholesale price. And it's offshore wind, the onshore stuff is cheaper.

    Hinkley is getting £92.5 index linked for 15 years and then for another 20 years after that. So offshore wind, which is more expensive than onshore wind, will be cheaper than nuclear in the next 7-8 years, based on the nuclear industry figures, which based on previous performance need to be taken with a large pinch of salt.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10161145/Winds-of-change-blowing-through-UK-energy-as-worlds-biggest-offshore-wind-farm-opens.html


    http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1192964/windeconomics-uk-moves-ahead-electricity-reform

    Again a reminder that wind turbine prices are down 1/3rd since 2010 in the US

    and in Oz
    http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/The last bit is interesting dispatchable renewables should be cost-competitive before this nuclear plant is even built :p

    If you have to take one factoid try this , and remember nuclear has even higher capital costs than just about everything apart from hydro


    And how do I rephrase it so people understand that excess wind could be easily turned into hydrogen and injected into the natural gas mains.


    Is this the same kind of hydrogen you were talking about here?

    Post number 2, your reply, paragraph 4.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=80462042


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Is this the same kind of hydrogen you were talking about here?

    Post number 2, your reply, paragraph 4.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=80462042
    yes

    the only difference since August last year is that I now know that you can some "store" hydrogen in the existing gas mains.

    And I'm only referring to hydrogen generated from surplus electricity because hydrogen is an inefficient way to store energy. But surplus electricity is cheap, to the point where in some crazy schemes it can have negative value especially if you can use a hydrolysis or other plant for grid stabilisation.


    IIRC in Germany the hydrogen produced from electricity was four times the price of other hydrogen so to make it from base load is insane.

    To suggest that the physical and chemical problems of operating a new type of reactor at vastly elevated temperatures could be sorted out on time and on budget and then compete economically with surplus electricity from renewables , well yeah.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Unsurprisingly, there's been a response to the scientists letter from the NDRC:

    http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dbryk/response_to_an_open_letter_on.html

    In short, they say:
    -they share the concern about climate change
    -the four scientists underestimate efficiency
    -renewables have been inaccurately dismissed
    -they are overoptimistic about the future of nuclear technology


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 286 ✭✭Eoghan Barra


    Macha wrote: »
    Unsurprisingly, there's been a response to the scientists letter from the NDRC:

    http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dbryk/response_to_an_open_letter_on.html

    In short, they say:
    -they share the concern about climate change
    -the four scientists underestimate efficiency
    -renewables have been inaccurately dismissed
    -they are overoptimistic about the future of nuclear technology
    The NRDC are not at all credible as an independent environmental organisation. They have been bought by big business, including the oil industry.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    The NRDC, I presume thats who youre talking about, are not at all credible as an environmental organisation. They have been bought by big business, including the oil industry.
    First I heard of it. You may be confusing it with Sierra Club or Environmental Defense Fund, both of which have been criticised for their positions on some issues.

    The points made in the open letter would also reflect my criticisms, although I feel they don't put enough emphasis on the issue of speed: nuclear is not a fast response to climate change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 286 ✭✭Eoghan Barra


    Macha wrote: »
    First I heard of it. You may be confusing it with Sierra Club or Environmental Defense Fund, both of which have been criticised for their positions on some issues.

    No, very definitely the NRDC.

    Christine MacDonald looked at this very thoroughly in her book Green Inc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    No, very definitely the NRDC.

    Christine MacDonald looked at this very thoroughly in her book Green Inc.
    If we're going to dismiss every organisation that has ever had a negative opinion of it expressed in a book, we're very quickly going to run out of credible sources of information. We might as well shut down the forum right now.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 286 ✭✭Eoghan Barra


    djpbarry wrote: »
    If we're going to dismiss every organisation that has ever had a negative opinion of it expressed in a book, we're very quickly going to run out of credible sources of information. We might as well shut down the forum right now.

    MacDonald doesn't just express an opinion on the NRDC (and some other big US groups), she presents well-researched facts that show that much of its - massive - funding is sourced from the biggest polluters, and that correspondingly its stances are often diamettrically opposed to the interests of the environment.

    MacDonald is not alone in saying this, and while not surprisingly attempts have been made to discredit her, her facts have not, afaik, been seriously disputed.

    The credibility of the NRDC, or rather the lack of it, obviously does have a bearing on their statement quoted above by Macha.


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