Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow · 22-11-2014 9:18pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

If your 2-3c ahead where's the return from, not the market.

Why didn't your co op go to 41? It's the same difference just paid a different way.

Seriously worried that co-ops take up forward trading "on behalf of their farmers, to offer a stable price"

Unless a number of primary producers voluntarily opt to lock in a specific price (transparently) for a stated quantity over a stated period, they have nothing to hedge.

And they sure as hell aren't the people to trade.

Because we are the ones who have to cover their losses.

frazzledhome · 22-11-2014 9:37pm

kowtow wrote: »

Seriously worried that co-ops take up forward trading "on behalf of their farmers, to offer a stable price"

Unless a number of primary producers voluntarily opt to lock in a specific price (transparently) for a stated quantity over a stated period, they have nothing to hedge.

And they sure as hell aren't the people to trade.

Because we are the ones who have to cover their losses.

What I'm referring to in that post has nothing to do with forward trading

farmersfriend · 22-11-2014 11:04pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

Coop shareholders voting so only them. This is an issue that needs to be dealt with. Co op can only pay its shareholders

Signed up suppliers need an opportunity to buy shares if top ups are going to be the way forward.

frazzledhome · 22-11-2014 11:05pm

farmersfriend wrote: »

Signed up suppliers need an opportunity to buy shares if top ups are going to be the way forward.

They have as share trading has opened again.

Milked out · 23-11-2014 12:04am

DG base 32,
Received 39.961c/l @ 4.0p and 4.32bf
Edited to add no winter bonus in that price

red bull · 23-11-2014 3:51am

Fair play to Arrabawn, top of Journal league for first time in ages. Arrabawn suppliers took a hit on price it seems to put infracsture in place to to take increased supply. I have information that suggests they take milk from Glanbia and Dairygold to process at added value

mahoney_j · 23-11-2014 4:02am

red bull wrote: »

Fair play to Arrabawn, top of Journal league for first time in ages. Arrabawn suppliers took a hit on price it seems to put infracsture in place to to take increased supply. I have information that suggests they take milk from Glanbia and Dairygold to process at added value

Can I have a vodka with that #locked!!!!!

red bull · 23-11-2014 4:03am

TerryFear wrote: »

episodes of dynasty LOL

Thats life ?

red bull · 23-11-2014 4:06am

mahoney_j wrote: »

Can I have a vodka with that #locked!!!!!

Yea, me too. Oook the begrudgers

red bull · 23-11-2014 4:27am

Most of my Quota is in Aurivo, not for long I think. Confused

frazzledhome · 23-11-2014 9:34am

red bull wrote: »

Most of my Quota is in Aurivo, not for long I think. Confused

Aren't they good operators?
The first 6 mts will be down to how well funded co ops are, cause market has tanked

orm0nd · 23-11-2014 10:08am

red bull wrote: »

Fair play to Arrabawn, top of Journal league for first time in ages. Arrabawn suppliers took a hit on price it seems to put infracsture in place to to take increased supply. I have information that suggests they take milk from Glanbia and Dairygold to process at added value

they had no choice , they lost a lot of top suppliers to kerry some years ago & if they get didn't get their act to gether were going to lose more next spring

it's not for the good of the supplier they upped the price & don't believe it for one moment

arctic8dave · 23-11-2014 10:23am

October milk price 40.89 c/l @4.95% fat 4.16% protein Last 12days of month on OAD

Brown Podzol · 23-11-2014 10:44am

DG base 32. 4.06p. 4.93f Price 43.158 before levies. 42.8 after levies.

15 lts per cow per day average for the month,€6.50 output on 36c meal per cow per day + 5kg silage. Stocked at 3.6.

kowtow · 23-11-2014 6:49pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

What I'm referring to in that post has nothing to do with forward trading

Sorry, didn't mean to imply that it did.

It just reminded me of some comments made by one of the processors last week.

And of the policy of using part of one suppliers milk cheque to incentivise another supplier to enter a contract.

whelan2 · 08-12-2014 3:16pm

30.5cpl for November

mahoney_j · 08-12-2014 3:30pm

whelan2 wrote: »

30.5cpl for November

And December ,areabawn holding just over 32.and seemingly no change till March milk cheque is cashed.

friesian13 · 15-12-2014 2:27pm

nov cheque just in.39.5c 4.06p 4.81bf 288scc

kowtow · 15-12-2014 3:20pm

"Fixation on this months milk price may have to go"

http://www.agriland.ie/news/must-ensure-ready-next-price-trough/

- Well that's told us!

slippy wicket · 17-12-2014 4:21pm

Nice little cheque in the post today for November milk. 40.3cpl 5.03 fat &4.05 protein.
We've been breeding in high ebi genomic sires for last few years and it's nice to se incremental improvements in solids.
Seems to be an important way to counteract price volatility.

whelan2 · 17-12-2014 4:39pm

41.86 cpl net milk price here:)

milkprofit · 17-12-2014 5:28pm

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

Dawggone · 17-12-2014 6:22pm

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

+1. Agree.
Very important to know when to batten down the hatches and keep liquid as good opportunities WILL occur.

I always reckoned that one income stream (from agri) is dangerous.

joejobrien · 17-12-2014 6:56pm

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.
Well said.
Unfortunately

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

Well said.
Unfortunately many believed it would remain at high prices forever and a day and couldnt see the woods from the trees and some ithink may be even on here:D
All jokes aside, it is the processor that will win out irrespective of the producer making money. Make no mistake ,They will have a margin

Greengrass1 · 17-12-2014 7:02pm

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

5live · 17-12-2014 7:19pm

Greengrass1 wrote: »

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

We knew it wouldn't stay but nobody was thinking a fall to mid 20s.

A neighbour, lots of cows and farms leased both local and in other counties.
He doesn't do much wrong, superb operator.

In 2009, he dried the cows off and sent half to the factory, all the empty, problem, high scc etc. He got a decent price for them, cash in hand and silage enough for the remaining cows and large numbers of replacements so no need to buy anything.

He kept all his heifers in the herd instead of selling a good few as normal and went to sales to buy calved replacements. He ended up with a young herd and only a few thousand euro down with no hassle of looking for feed. He has been doing this for years now.

He reckons you should never waste a crisis because in a crisis you find yourself having to make decisions that would be a million miles away from what would be 'normal'.

Next year is another one of those years.

kowtow · 17-12-2014 7:59pm

5live wrote: »

We knew it wouldn't stay but nobody was thinking a fall to mid 20s......

He reckons you should never waste a crisis because in a crisis you find yourself having to make decisions that would be a million miles away from what would be 'normal'.

Next year is another one of those years.

What a few people seem to be slow to grasp is that the market price will *always* drop enough in each cycle to force decisions by suppliers - farmers, which will always mean drastic business changing losses for some.

Without regulation (quotas) and with an investment cycle like dairy there is no other way for the market to cut off supply. Prices do not turn around until either the supply side or the buy side is losing money and has exhausted it's capital buffer - full stop, end of story.

Dawggone · 17-12-2014 8:02pm

joejobrien wrote: »

Well said.
Unfortunately many believed it would remain at high prices forever and a day and couldnt see the woods from the trees and some ithink may be even on here:D
All jokes aside, it is the processor that will win out irrespective of the producer making money. Make no mistake ,They will have a margin

Bang on there.
Should be read and reread.
Processors will always have a margin.

BTW. Where have you seen processors posting figures for the maximum they can pay for milk?? NEVER.

Guys come on here and elsewhere quoting the minimum they can produce milk for....AND they don't even include a wage for themselves!!

Wages always get paid in the real world.

mahoney_j · 17-12-2014 8:08pm

Dawggone wrote: »

Bang on there.
Should be read and reread.
Processors will always have a margin.

BTW. Where have you seen processors posting figures for the maximum they can pay for milk?? NEVER.

Guys come on here and elsewhere quoting the minimum they can produce milk for....AND they don't even include a wage for themselves!!

Wages always get paid in the real world.

Your last piece very relevant ,Tegasc and others blowing steam through their holes claimin they can produce milk at 23/24 is foolish and misleading.average cost of production including labour is 30 plus cent in this country

mahoney_j · 17-12-2014 8:13pm

Greengrass1 wrote: »

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

A budget is just that gg,things go wrong and **** happens that ain't planned.yourvestablished and expanding with stock on hand same as me why should u sell.if milk is sub 25 for most of next year u me and most of us will have milked for nothing next year and barely break even and drastic measures may be called for that a budget will not predict .its ok to budget but only 3 months out

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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