Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

sopretty · 02-03-2014 2:39am

I believe the treaty refers to 'military assurances' as opposed to 'military guarantees'. Which seems to be where the discrepancies lie...

riffmongous · 02-03-2014 3:02am

Will the Russians actually risk a war though? I'd imagine the Ukrainian armed forces are a big step up from what they are used to dealing with, at least in size

stevenmartin99 · 02-03-2014 3:32am

Yes the Ukrainian army would be step up from what they faced in Georgia for example, but the real issue is , who is the Ukrainian army loyal to?. I imagine it is as divided as the country seems to be right now, and a divided army is a useless army.

Europe or America won't get involved militarily, so it's starting to look clear Ukraine will divide with out much resistance , altogether it will probably be just the 3 most eastern Oblasts and Crimea which may eventually turn out to be a good thing for Ukraine.

riffmongous · 02-03-2014 3:37am

How much does the Ukraine stand to lose economically if these areas did try to rejoin Russia?

stevenmartin99 · 02-03-2014 3:48am

riffmongous wrote: »

How much does the Ukraine stand to lose economically if these areas did try to rejoin Russia?

I think losing some of these eastern industrial regions would benefit Ukraine, not only because they are actually a cost to Ukraine in their current state , but also because nobody wants to reform a country with unwilling regions. Eastern Ukraine still believe the Russian way is best and i think they will learn a tough lesson if they rejoin Russia.

Crimea is a different story, it's probably a loss economically but again is there must point in wasting effort trying to drag them kicking and screaming to a future they don't seem to want?

The more this story evolves, the more a split looks inevitable.

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 11:58am

Looking at a regional map of Ukraine.

Should a split occur, Odessa would be critical to a new 'West Ukraine'..... Assuming that Crimea would revert back to a Russian client state.

PirateShampoo · 02-03-2014 12:47pm

BBC reporting that Ukraine has called up all its reservists and their army is in full mobilisation.

born2bwild · 02-03-2014 12:56pm

riffmongous wrote: »

How much does the Ukraine stand to lose economically if these areas did try to rejoin Russia?

Most of the main population centres are east of the Dnepr: Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Odessa are Russian speaking (as is Kiev itself, mostly).

However, just because you speak Russian doesn't mean you want to be 'liberated' by Russia - most of these people - and that goes for those in Simferopol, Sevastopol and Yalta, too - are happy to remain in Ukraine.

Economically, the big eastern cities have financial services, heavy industry, manufacturing, (cars, planes, boats and trains), coal mining, staggeringly massive agricultural production, tourism down on the black sea (Odessa, Crimea, Sea of Azov).

In comparison, the country west of the Dnepr is less populated and has far fewer resources than the east but it still has a lot of agricultural and industrial wealth.

Ukraine is an enormous country with so much going for it that it boggles your mind to see how badly it has been run since independence.

If all of the Russian-speaking Oblasts were seized by Russia what would be left would be a mostly rural, Ukrainian speaking mini-state similar to Slovakia. Within 5 years it'd be in the Eu and the standard of living for ordinary people would outstrip that in the east by a factor of 2.

Oh and, don't forget, there'd be massive casualties. Military/Civilian/paramilitary deaths in the conflict, persecution of Russian speakers in the west, persecution of Ukrainian speakers in the east.

If this turns out to be an invasion the Balkan war in the 90s is going to look like fisticuffs.

Adamocovic · 02-03-2014 1:14pm

It's important now that no one from either side makes a small mistake which will make the situation spiral out of control, all it takes is one trigger happy soldier to fire a shot. I read today that Ukraine are accusing Russia of declaring war on them now, very interesting to how the whole thing pans out but I would guess it will be all bark and then the situation will be resolved.

Sand · 02-03-2014 1:32pm

In terms of potential for mistakes the BBC is reporting that Russian forces apparently demanded a Ukrainian barracks to hand over their weapons (presumably to assist in stabilising the situation), which has been refused. The Ukrainian troops in barracks are preparing to defend themselves from an assault.

Its seems Putin is calculating all the time that no one will do anything to stop aggressive moves but he is in danger of miscalculating very badly. Russian gas supplies are important, but this is March, not October and a cutoff of gas to western Europe is a bluff: it would be more damaging to Russia than Europe in the medium and long term. Europe can find other suppliers or substitutes in a few weeks/months. Russia wont find other buyers as quickly.

And the true value of Russian military might can be detected in the creaking, rusting state of the Russian fleet in Crimea. This isn't the old Soviet Red Army. Its been run down and left to rust for almost 25 years.

Manach · 02-03-2014 1:51pm

Then again, Russians might start a war poorly equipped and lead (as per the 1939 Winter War), but they'd have the expertise and industrial power to re-tool and match their adversaries.

Iwasfrozen · 02-03-2014 2:38pm

Manach wrote: »

Then again, Russians might start a war poorly equipped and lead (as per the 1939 Winter War), but they'd have the expertise and industrial power to re-tool and match their adversaries.

Do they? Again this isn't the Soviet Union we're talking about. NATO's industrial capability (should war break out) is far greater than Russia's.

Conmaicne Mara · 02-03-2014 2:41pm

Adamocovic wrote: »

It's important now that no one from either side makes a small mistake which will make the situation spiral out of control, all it takes is one trigger happy soldier to fire a shot. I read today that Ukraine are accusing Russia of declaring war on them now, very interesting to how the whole thing pans out but I would guess it will be all bark and then the situation will be resolved.

In fairness to the Ukrainian military, their territory has been, shall we say infringed upon. Some bases have been surrounded and they have had the discipline not to start randomly firing at "whomever". In a situation like this I would think that is to their credit. The best way to win a war is to avoid it in the first place, without particularly appeasing the other side if you know what I mean.

The one question I have is, IS the Ukrainian military totally under the control or loyal to the Kiev government. No doubt there are many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine military.

Sand wrote: »

And the true value of Russian military might can be detected in the creaking, rusting state of the Russian fleet in Crimea. This isn't the old Soviet Red Army. Its been run down and left to rust for almost 25 years.

It isn't Yeltsins army, it's Putins army. I would think there are substantial differences between how an alcoholic runs his army and that of a former KGB Colonel. Underestimate them at your peril.

weisses · 02-03-2014 3:29pm

This is Georgia 2.0

The worst the Ukrainians can do is to provoke the Russians so they have an excuse

As Mikheil Saakashvili found out

barney 20v · 02-03-2014 3:41pm

The next 24 hours are crucial in all this, USA threatening economic sanctions over military actions

Sand · 02-03-2014 4:10pm

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

It isn't Yeltsins army, it's Putins army. I would think there are substantial differences between how an alcoholic runs his army and that of a former KGB Colonel. Underestimate them at your peril.

The Russians have begun to spend on their military in recent years again and attempt several military reforms, but they're coming from a very low base after decades of military decline and NATO, even discounting the US, easily outspends them and has done so for years. Having the ability to beat the Georgians in what was essentially a small border clash with no more than 10-15,000 a side is one thing. The ability to wage war on a larger scale is something I find dubious on the NATO side which have compromised on size, not quality. Let alone the Russians who have compromised on both.

At this point I think its Putin who is in danger of underestimating his opponents. He's just wandered over the border of another state on trumped up excuses, with reckless disregard and a seeming belief that either he wont be challenged or that if he is that he will win easily. That has proven the downfall of other aggressively nationalist leaders in Europe.

This is Georgia 2.0

The worst the Ukrainians can do is to provoke the Russians so they have an excuse

As Mikheil Saakashvili found out

Its the reverse actually - Its Russia that has turned to aggressive military action this time. As for provocation - the Russians are the ones carrying out the provocation. At some point a sovereign state has to defend its territory from foreign military incursions or it ceases to be a sovereign state.

I agree though - the Ukranians have been wise to allow the Russians to continue playing the role of the aggressor. Putin ultimately is going to face a tough choice - withdraw with his tail between his legs, or push into an aggressive annexation of the Crimea which will lead to massive sanctions against Russia, or even worse a war he will lose.

karma_ · 02-03-2014 4:23pm

Sand wrote: »

The Russians have begun to spend on their military in recent years again and attempt several military reforms, but they're coming from a very low base after decades of military decline and NATO, even discounting the US, easily outspends them

It's not about how much a military spends but the value they get for that. The greatest lesson Russia learned about that was in WW2 they figured out very fast that they didn't have to match their opponents technically but just get close enough to do a reasonable job and their vast industrial base could be utilised fully. Same applies today.

jackboy · 02-03-2014 4:35pm

If a war started China would back up Russia. For this reason I believe the west will not help Ukraine.

Sand · 02-03-2014 4:36pm

karma_ wrote: »

It's not about how much a military spends but the value they get for that. The greatest lesson Russia learned about that was in WW2 they figured out very fast that they didn't have to match their opponents technically but just get close enough to do a reasonable job and their vast industrial base could be utilised fully. Same applies today.

Sure, but that assumes that all spending in the west is wasteful and pointless, whereas all the Russian spending is efficiently and wisely invested. That sort of imbalance is possible, but it seems highly unlikely that a government as corrupt and ineffective in all other arenas (Look at the Olympics - apparently the most expensive games every held by a significant margin, and yet facilities for visitors were a bit of an experience) is the most effective when it comes to military investmnet.

And most of the targets of that wasteful/pointless label in NATO military spending have been exactly the sort of weapon systems that are designed to overwhelm organised, modern enemies like the Russians - spending was/is considered wasteful because it was inconceivable NATO would ever actually fight organised, modern enemies like the Russians.

Iwasfrozen · 02-03-2014 4:41pm

jackboy wrote: »

If a war started China would back up Russia. For this reason I believe the west will not help Ukraine.

China would back up Russia? Why? The two are bitter historical enemies. The feelings of the Sino Soviet split still run deep.

Even if they did China would struggle to even get troops to Ukraine.

jackboy · 02-03-2014 4:46pm

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

China would back up Russia? Why? The two are bitter historical enemies. The feelings of the Sino Soviet split still run deep.

Yes but they are strategic allies. If one of them was taken out by the west the other would be completely isolated. It would be the same for the west if the US or Europe was taken out.

Iwasfrozen · 02-03-2014 4:50pm

jackboy wrote: »

Yes but they are strategic allies. If one of them was taken out by the west the other would be completely isolated. It would be the same for the west if the US or Europe was taken out.

No one is going to take out Russia. History has thought us invading Russia is a very bad idea. The war if it happened would be a proxy war fought in Ukraine. China would struggle to even get troops to Ukraine.

jackboy · 02-03-2014 4:56pm

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

No one is going to take out Russia. History has thought us invading Russia is a very bad idea. The war if it happened would be a proxy war fought in Ukraine. China would struggle to even get troops to Ukraine.

I don't think China would send troops to Ukraine. They would just threaten to cause trouble in the pacific. The US have a very weak president. He will back down and let the Russians do what they want.

Conas · 02-03-2014 5:14pm

America is better off staying out of this, Putin has every right to protect Russians in Ukraine from danger, after the America funded coup by radicals and terrorists.. Obama has been a disaster as president. America's military industrial complex has been out of control for decades, and since foreign policy has been taken over by the Israeli's, and greedy war profiteers, Obama is a prisoner too it all.

American is stone broke, because of their empire spending. Conflict with Russia or Iran, will economically destroy the United States, and everyone knows it. Obama's biggest enemy is from within.

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 5:16pm

Conas wrote: »

America is better off staying out of this, Putin has every right to protect Russians in Ukraine from danger, after the America funded coup by radicals and terrorists.. Obama has been a disaster as president. America's military industrial complex has been out of control for decades, and since foreign policy has been taken over by the Israeli's, and greedy war profiteers, Obama is a prisoner too it all.

American is stone broke, because of their empire spending. Conflict with Russia or Iran, will economically destroy the United States, and everyone knows it. Obama's biggest enemy is from within.

So much wrong with this post.
.... I should say, its all wrong .

Utterly stupid.

Conas · 02-03-2014 5:24pm

spank_inferno wrote: »

So much wrong with this post.
.... I should say, its all wrong .

Utterly stupid.

Well tell me what I said was wrong then?

America kills women and children with drone strikes everyday in Pakistan. It invaded Iraq illegally. Tortured people in prison camps. Stole billions in Iraqi oil. Had Gaddafi murdered and killed illegally for oil and economic reasons. Funded Saddam Hussein, and Bin Laden when it suited them. Yet Obama can sit in the White House and accuse Putin of violating International Law. Everyone since JFK, has been a puppet taking orders from the Military Industrial Complex.

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 5:58pm

Its the ramblings of a bastment dwelling conspiracy nut.

This may be a shock to the jilted.
However the world & America is not run by a Jewish conspiracy.

There is no Rothschild/illuminati/one world Jewish Corporit-ocracy running things.

- America is no more broke than most of the world & is more than capable of taking care of business.

Engaging a weak Iran or Russia will not destroy America...(no war has yet!).

Russia has no more right to invade another country than Germany had to Czechoslovakia in the 30's.
(Your spurious logic to justify them can justify Russia conquering all former soviet states.)

Ukraine does have the right NOT to be invaded though.
That Russia signed a treaty to honour in 94 & have now broken.

Honestly mate, your post belongs on a tin-foil hat blog right next to why fluoride & vaccinations are part of a government mind control project.

Conas · 02-03-2014 6:09pm

spank_inferno wrote: »

Its the ramblings of a bastment dwelling conspiracy nut.

This may be a shock to the jilted.
However the world & America is not run by a Jewish conspiracy.

There is no Rothschild/illuminati/one world Jewish Corporit-ocracy running things.

- America is no more broke than most of the world & is more than capable of taking care of business.

Engaging a weak Iran or Russia will not destroy America...(no war has yet!).

Russia has no more right to invade another country than Germany had to Czechoslovakia in the 30's.
(Your spurious logic to justify them can justify Russia conquering all former soviet states.)

Ukraine does have the right NOT to be invaded though.
That Russia signed a treaty to honour in 94 & have now broken.

Honestly mate, your post belongs on a tin-foil hat blog right next to why fluoride & vaccinations are part of a government mind control project.

You have written a joint pile of rubbish. Out and out rubbish lol.

What does conspiracies have to do with what's going on in Ukraine?

If American can violate International Law, then so can Russia. It's ok if you aren't the one who has to do the fighting, and dying.

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 6:22pm

I wasn't the one bringing Jewish conspiracies into this.

There is a conspiracy theory forum & After Hours to spout that anti-semetic crap.

Conas · 02-03-2014 6:28pm

spank_inferno wrote: »

I wasn't the one bringing Jewish conspiracies into this.

There is a conspiracy theory forum & After Hours to spout that anti-semetic crap.

Show me, where I mentioned Jewish conspiracies? Arabs are semetic people aswell you know.

Just because you are a woefully poor debater, don't start ranting off. This thread should be about what's going on in Ukraine.

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 6:33pm

Conas wrote: »

Show me, where I mentioned Jewish conspiracies? Arabs are semetic people aswell you know.

Just because you are a woefully poor debater, don't start ranting off. This thread should be about what's going on in Ukraine.

Where you told us all that the US foreign policy is run by Israel.

Seeing as that is not true, it is a fantasy on your part.

I would love the nuttier posters to leave Israeli conspiracy theories out of it.

ZeroThreat · 02-03-2014 6:39pm

Jew hating posters need to be reported & perma-banned. Totally reprehensible.

Conas · 02-03-2014 6:42pm

spank_inferno wrote: »

Where you told us all that the US foreign policy is run by Israel.

Seeing as that is not true, it is a fantasy on your part.

I would love the nuttier posters to leave Israeli conspiracy theories out of it.

Well in the dealings with Iran, for you to say that Israel has no influence on US foreign policy, then you are telling an out and out lie. Just read the recent 'Nuclear Free Iran Act' that AIPAC tried to have pushed through Congress only for Obama to threaten a veto. They warmonger against Iran every day of the week. Try to lure America into yet another war. No country in the world has more influence on the US than Israel. They also get $3 billion in foreign aid every year.

Like I said this thread is about Ukraine.

You won't be able to emotionally blackmail me.

czx · 02-03-2014 6:45pm

Conas wrote: »

Had Gaddafi murdered and killed

You must be devastated

Nodin · 02-03-2014 7:12pm

Conas wrote: »

America is better off staying out of this, Putin has every right to protect Russians in Ukraine from danger, after the America funded coup by radicals and terrorists.. Obama has been a disaster as president. America's military industrial complex has been out of control for decades, and since foreign policy has been taken over by the Israeli's, and greedy war profiteers, Obama is a prisoner too it all.

American is stone broke, because of their empire spending. Conflict with Russia or Iran, will economically destroy the United States, and everyone knows it. Obama's biggest enemy is from within.

Rather simplistic, and devoid of facts. There is a long standing split in Ukraine, which needs little outside support to flare up. While the West may have given funds to pro-EU parties, Putin did similar to pro-Russian parties. As usual, it's going to the poor sods in the middle who suffer.

Conas · 02-03-2014 7:23pm

Nodin wrote: »

Rather simplistic, and devoid of facts. There is a long standing split in Ukraine, which needs little outside support to flare up. While the West may have given funds to pro-EU parties, Putin did similar to pro-Russian parties. As usual, it's going to the poor sods in the middle who suffer.

Yes, that may be so, but I'm fed up of mainstream media in America with their Putin bashing. Mitt Romney started off all this Cold War talk in 2012. Putin wants to look after Russia and Russian citizens first, but it's twisted around on places like Fox News, and the New York Times. The last thing Putin wants is a second Soviet Empire, he knows it would only collapse again anyway. The West would only be too happy to prop Putin up as their Number 1 enemy, since they always seem to want to have one.

tomh903 · 02-03-2014 7:31pm

The Ukrainian Navy commander is after defecting to Russia. The Kiev government can't expect their army to just sit tight while their country is silently taken over. Either order your army to fight or they will start deserting.

bobcoffee · 02-03-2014 7:37pm

meanwhile in america 300 protesters got arrested at the white house over some pipe line, so reports says.
I 100% agree with Conas but it is not just the american media, just look at BBC as they all of a sudden think invading a country is bad.
far too many people still believe that we (western world) are the good guys or even close to being.
we bomb and torture plenty of civilians but yet still hold our heads up so high.
suppose as long as they are not white its ok?

czx · 02-03-2014 7:44pm

bobcoffee wrote: »

far too many people still believe that we (western world) are the good guys or even close to being.

Good. Russia, China etc are not viable alternatives

bobcoffee · 02-03-2014 7:47pm

czx wrote: »

Good. Russia, China etc are not viable alternatives

who said they are?

aloyisious · 02-03-2014 7:50pm

The Airports are secured by "unidentified" armed factions, so no opposition to fraternal airlifting of friendly ambassadors, all for the love of the mother-tongue, Ditto for the reported presence of Russian Anti-submarine warfare ships near the disputed area, if true maybe an anti-snooping deterrent or protection of Russian state property. Maybe a bit of "shoe-banging" at Foggy Bottom might sort things out. The Ukrainians have had their military on UN Service, so I hope the Russians don't claim the UN SC is biased, It did turn down a recent offer from Pres Putin to supply troops to the Golan Heights in place of the withdrawing Austrians.

czx · 02-03-2014 7:50pm

bobcoffee wrote: »

who said they are?

We'll if the West isn't the best of what's going then who is?

bobcoffee · 02-03-2014 7:59pm

czx wrote: »

We'll if the West isn't the best of what's going then who is?

sorry to inform you but neither.
the "best" is an idea that does not exist.
they are all lying savages who are looking after their own interests.

czx · 02-03-2014 8:07pm

bobcoffee wrote: »

sorry to inform you but neither.
the "best" is an idea that does not exist.
they are all lying savages who are looking after their own interests.

OK. Back in the real world where not everything is ****, the West has quite a lot going for it relative to other places

bobcoffee · 02-03-2014 8:13pm

czx wrote: »

OK. Back in the real world where not everything is ****, the West has quite a lot going for it relative to other places

yes and most of that "going for it" come from taking things off weaker countries.
just cause the grass is greener does not mean its "best" or even close to it.
does not mean that the EU and USA are nice people.

the term "(poop) rolls down hill" really comes into play.
but that of course is pointing fingers at everyone.

Conas · 02-03-2014 8:13pm

czx wrote: »

OK. Back in the real world where not everything is ****, the West has quite a lot going for it relative to other places

I'd love to know what it has going for it in Ukraine though, apart from maybe having to give it billions of dollars in economic aid, as the country is in serious financial trouble. Why are they so fixated with Ukraine that's the question? They'll get nothing out of it.

RahenyD5 · 02-03-2014 8:19pm

Does anyone reckon the outcome out of this will be a slimmed down western Ukraine, plus Kiev, joining the EU and Russia reabsorbing Crimea and eastern Ukraine as new provinces?

spank_inferno · 02-03-2014 8:21pm

RahenyD5 wrote: »

Does anyone reckon the outcome out of this will be a slimmed down western Ukraine, plus Kiev, joining the EU and Russia reabsorbing Crimea and eastern Ukraine as new provinces?

It would take a while but I'd say it would be something like that alright.

bobcoffee · 02-03-2014 8:22pm

western world, mainly USA has been trying to get as much equipment as close to Russia as possible.
the benefits for having a EU pro Ukraine in order to do this is worth it in the eyes of USA.
while what could the EU get out of it?
another market mainly, since oil/gas and markets is the only real things the EU cares about.

Russia gets to keep its borders and army more secure, which countries like England and USA have no problem in invading countries, rather then the Russian OCCUPATION that is going on atm (hopefully it stays the way).
As Russia is screaming for stability within the Ukraine for official negotiations around Crimea.

this blog is example of EU interests around oil

czx · 02-03-2014 8:30pm

bobcoffee wrote: »

just cause the grass is greener does not mean its "best" or even close to it.
.

That's exactly what it means.

Due to the relative strength of the West we are living in one of the safest, most prosperous times in history

Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

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