Aussie dollar falling

s20101938 · 19-05-2013 1:25pm #1

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

eagerv · 19-05-2013 4:08pm

s20101938 wrote: »

So last week the fall has finally begun. Is now the time to convert my hard earned Au$ back into Euros before it reaches its historical level of 1$ = 0.60E?

In Feb 2009 it was 1$=0.50€.

Cannot see the dollar dropping to that level again, but hope i'm wrong as someone who visits fairly often from Ireland!

jackbhoy · 20-05-2013 3:43am

When I set off for Aus in October 2008 1e would buy you AU$2.06.

5 year trend graph on XE is interesting:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=AUD&view=5Y

catbear · 20-05-2013 3:58am

Australia as a commodity exporter has enjoyed a safe haven status since China started their stimuli programs in late 08, as demand for ore from china declines then the aussie dollar won't be as attractive. Oddly enough while WA is starting to stall I've been hearing more stories about activity picking up in NSW.
The strong $ could be around for another while, if national unemployment stays static and loans are getting serviced then we won't see a collapse back to 1.6 anytime soon.
That's what I'm hoping btw, otherwise feck it, I've enough saved to get started somewhere else.

kinggriff · 21-05-2013 12:57am

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

moneymad · 21-05-2013 1:09am

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

Dollar will weaken. Look at Peru and Russia. They are commodities based economies. They're all going down.
In a few hours the Aussie fed will release minutes of what they plan to do.

mise_me_fein3 · 21-05-2013 1:21am

The RBA has set its interest rates at a record low but it is still way higher than compared to the rates in Europe and the 0% rate in the US.

If you save in US Dollars or Euros you won’t get a good return on your savings. If you save in Australian Dollars you will get some sort of cash return.
Look at how the Australian banks are performing. Australia has huge resources of all types and it’s also a leader in Agriculture.

I would not expect the Australian dollar to weaken a lot considering all the money printing than is going on elsewhere in the world. It may go down to 95 cents but I would expect that it goes past the parity mark against the USD in the next coming day again.

Once the FED in the US announces that it is not stopping printing money tomorrow the USD will lose strength again.

rusheen · 21-05-2013 7:36pm

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

Your right its impossible to predict .
There was talk of the recession in 2009 continuing and getting as bad as everywhere else that didnt happen ...

Hard to know what to do . maybe send half now and more later

sin_city · 22-05-2013 12:28am

rusheen wrote: »

Your right its impossible to predict .
There was talk of the recession in 2009 continuing and getting as bad as everywhere else that didnt happen ...

Hard to know what to do . maybe send half now and more later

As mentioned in the post before yours you will get more interest for your savings in Australia than most places.

People realize this so they buy Australian dollars to get a better return than the ones from Euro or US banks....This demand on the Australian Dollar causes it to increase.

When the interest rate is lowered the demand goes down.

Send all your money home and get 1% or keep it here and get whatever it is 2.5% or something like that.

The_Hustler · 22-05-2013 9:01am

sin_city wrote: »

Send all your money home and get 1% or keep it here and get whatever it is 2.5% or something like that.

You got the difference in rates about right but you're very low with those percentages

draiochtanois · 22-05-2013 9:07am

This post has been deleted.

catbear · 22-05-2013 11:01am

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

That's pretty much what I'm doing although I do watch for dips and rises in the rate. If I'm in australia in the long run I'll probably make more that the savings rate by bringing that money back to Aus if the exchange rate goes back to its historic norm. If it stays strong then at least I'll have plenty of holiday money to play with in Europe and a nice wedge if I leave Aus.

sin_city · 22-05-2013 11:20am

See what happens in the next 5 to 6 hours...either way the announcement from the Fed in the US will affect the Aussie dollar and all currency

catbear · 22-05-2013 11:25am

sin_city wrote: »

See what happens in the next 5 to 6 hours...either way the announcement from the Fed in the US will affect the Aussie dollar and all currency

Wasn't quantitive easing supposed to continue until US unemployment was at 7 or 6%, I wonder what the current figures are. I might get the rest of the year out the strong aus$! That would be sweet.

moneymad · 23-05-2013 11:32am

Don't wait too long.

IrishDownUnder · 23-05-2013 11:19pm

I hope it doesn't weaken too much still paying off some bills back in Ireland . Time to get a loan out here i think and have done with the up n down exchange rate .

White Cockatoo · 24-05-2013 2:44am

kinggriff wrote: »

I was hoping for insight into this. I know its impossible to predict exactly. Can someone give an opinion as to whether the dollar will drop any further as I'm sending a large amount of money home for our wedding the end of this year and I'm unsure whether to send it now or see if the dollar strengthens again, back to how it was about 2 months ago.

Thanks..

I'd transfer now if I were you. I myself transferred 6 weeks ago at 0.806 in anticipation.

We've a federal election in Sept and I'd imagine there's going to be a raft of expensive election promises from both sides in the interim. Considering the economy is already running at a deficit, these promises may discourage the markets from buying as much $Aud as they have been.

The above opinion, comes with the caveat that it's simply that, an opinion. I made a decision on this basis. Who knows how it'll pan out?

brendymck88 · 24-05-2013 2:51am

The Aussie Dollars fate will depend more on economic news from China and the US, any promises from Australian politicians won't move the FX markets. IMO the Aussie will probably end the year where it is, to ordinary punter you'll make/lose a few hundred dollars, further down the line (2/3 years) I'd expect a weakening probably to around Aussie gets $0.8 US. I'd be surprised if we saw a weakening like the Yen this year or the GBP in 2008.

FernandoTorres · 24-05-2013 5:36am

I'd be worried about the prospects of the AUS$ vs the US$ but most people here will only be concerned about the AUS$ vs €. There isn't much sign of recovery in Europe and I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the next bit of bad news so I wouldn't be panicking yet.

sin_city · 24-05-2013 5:15pm

FernandoTorres wrote: »

I'd be worried about the prospects of the AUS$ vs the US$ but most people here will only be concerned about the AUS$ vs €. There isn't much sign of recovery in Europe and I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the next bit of bad news so I wouldn't be panicking yet.

You're right...the money printing in America will strengthen the US currency in the long term v:rolleyes:

The_Hustler · 25-05-2013 3:37am

At a talk by Deloitte yesterday they predicted the AUS$ will stay strong until mid 2014. No worries lads

eagerv · 07-06-2013 3:31pm

Dollar still falling against Euro.

1.4$ = 1€ Today. (1$ = 0.71€)

res ipsa · 08-06-2013 1:16pm

The Ozzie is way overvalued & will take a bath. At least a 50% chance Oz will go into recession in the next 12 months.

sin_city · 08-06-2013 2:03pm

res ipsa wrote: »

The Ozzie is way overvalued & will take a bath. At least a 50% chance Oz will go into recession in the next 12 months.

What do you base this on?

Don't you know the reason why the Yen is losing value? They've decided to double the supply of money. The same is going on in the US. Sterling has lost 25% of its value in the last few years.

Why is the AUD overvalued? If anything it is undervalued against the US dollar.

Recession, Australia? If anywhere has a better chance of not going into recession it is Australia.

You're just talking wa.nk

res ipsa · 08-06-2013 2:28pm

eagerv wrote: »

Dollar still falling against Euro.

1.4$ = 1€ Today. (1$ = 0.71€)

George Soros pulled out of the AUD. Is he acting Wa1nk?
Don't u think the mining boom is over & the reserve bank will pull every trick to devalue the currency? You sound like the Irish landlord in 2008 convincedthat the price drops were only a temporary thing. Repent at your leisure.

catbear · 08-06-2013 3:14pm

sin_city wrote: »

You're just talking wa.nk

Actually WA is in recession. Just consider for a moment what would have happened in Australia in 2008 if China hadn't started it's massive structural investment projects. Before the Chinese move, the Australian $ weakened to 50Euro cent.
The Aussie Dollar may act as an emergency brake but I not convinced Australia as a whole will avoid a broad recession.

FernandoTorres · 09-06-2013 4:08am

sin_city wrote: »

You're right...the money printing in America will strengthen the US currency in the long term v:rolleyes:

There are plenty of signs that Quantitative Easing will trail off in the US and this is being factored in to the rate at the moment. And FX markets don't always act in a logical manner.

hussey · 09-06-2013 4:09am

sin_city wrote: »

What do you base this on?

Don't you know the reason why the Yen is losing value? They've decided to double the supply of money. The same is going on in the US. Sterling has lost 25% of its value in the last few years.

Why is the AUD overvalued? If anything it is undervalued against the US dollar.

Recession, Australia? If anywhere has a better chance of not going into recession it is Australia.

You're just talking wa.nk

Mod Ease up there tiger. You can make discuss the post without being uncivil.

catbear · 09-06-2013 8:49am

FernandoTorres wrote: »

There are plenty of signs that Quantitative Easing will trail off in the US and this is being factored in to the rate at the moment. And FX markets don't always act in a logical manner.

QE is due to continue until US unemployment gets to 6-7%.

mise_me_fein3 · 11-06-2013 3:06am

catbear wrote: »

Actually WA is in recession. Just consider for a moment what would have happened in Australia in 2008 if China hadn't started it's massive structural investment projects. Before the Chinese move, the Australian $ weakened to 50Euro cent.
The Aussie Dollar may act as an emergency brake but I not convinced Australia as a whole will avoid a broad recession.

WA is not near a recession. Where did you get this information?
www.dsd.wa.gov.au/documents/000958.mike.thomas.docx

Try the WA government. You might be better off looking at that than listening to your man you were talking to in the pub last week.

It's true that the AUD has been losing value but once the sheep look and realize the fundamentals, the AUD should rise again.

You believed the French PM when he said the euro crisis was over last week too??? It's all good. 27% unemployment in Spain...all good, all good....:D:confused:

catbear · 11-06-2013 8:53am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

WA is not near a recession. Where did you get this information?
Try the WA government. You might be better off looking at that than listening to your man you were talking to in the pub last week.

Maybe you missed this while you were lecturing at the bar.

Growth in the mining state remained contracted for the second consecutive quarter as the national economy expanded 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, reflecting the peaking of resources investment, but a shortfall in the expansion of other sectors, analysts said.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-in-recession-as-growth-slows-to-a-trickle-20130605-2nqh4.html#ixzz2VtMQHKF3

Two quarters of economic contraction is a recession.

sin_city · 11-06-2013 9:42am

catbear wrote: »

Maybe you missed this while you were lecturing at the bar.:D:D

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-in-recession-as-growth-slows-to-a-trickle-20130605-2nqh4.html#ixzz2VtMQHKF3

Two quarters of economic contraction is a recession.

I wouldn't base everything on one article from The Age?

Two quarters is a recession? mmmm ok that's a fair point in general but the problem is "no-one - not the Australian Bureau of Statistics nor anyone else - produces quarterly estimates of GDP at the state and territory level",

Of course from what is written WA could be in a recession. I highly doubt it from what I've heard from mates living there, from what economists say and due to the fact that even though China has slowed...it's still growing pretty fast.

http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/wa-recession-fears-misplaced/story-e6frfkur-1226659416171

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/despite-media-misinformation-western-australia-remains-national-growth-leader-terry-ryder-hotspotting/2013061162126?utm_source=po&utm_medium=aida&utm_campaign=upperright

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/top-economist-wa-not-in-recession/story-fnhocr4x-1226658613073

http://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-recession-claims-are-hysteria-20130606-2nrzv.html

Have a little critical thinking before you jump to conclusions and investigate your claims before believing everything you read.

I could be wrong of course, but I've put my case forward with a few links that I would say it is not in recession.

catbear · 11-06-2013 10:01am

sin_city wrote: »

Have a little critical thinking before you jump to conclusions and investigate your claims before believing everything you read.

I could be wrong of course, but I've put my case forward with a few links that I would say it is not in recession.

I don't need to read anything to know that the jobs aren't coming in, employment in the investment side of mining is declining. If you don't believe me then check out the increase in the WA unemployment rate from mid 2012 to now.

sin_city · 11-06-2013 12:23pm

catbear wrote: »

I don't need to read anything to know that the jobs aren't coming in, employment in the investment side of mining is declining. If you don't believe me then check out the increase in the WA unemployment rate from mid 2012 to now.

I do believe you, but coming from 6% to 7% down to 2% or 3% is still hell of a lot better than most places.

I don't see the point really. Are you saying WA is a bad place to go for work? I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

Batgurl · 11-06-2013 1:41pm

sin_city wrote: »

I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

sin_city · 11-06-2013 1:50pm

Batgurl wrote: »

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

Basing it on my brother and 4 of his friends and his girlfriend working there. They work in Port Hedland. My brother went drove up from Perth after being on east coast with me. He had a job within 2 days. His girlfriend worked in Subway for 3 weeks and got the job she wanted. All are making crazy money...working long hours in fairness but they reckon they'll be able to buy a nice house back home early next year in cash.

Another brother and a mate work in Perth. Doing well too.

I compare all this to my Dad who is working at home and struggling.

Keep your salt for yourself missus.

FernandoTorres · 11-06-2013 1:52pm

Batgurl wrote: »

What are you basing this on? If you are in Ireland and are hearing it from second hand sources then I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Everyone in Australia is starting to feel the slow down. From retail stores being emptier during the now sale period to clients telling us they are reigning in their spending budgets (when things get tough, advertising is always the first to go).

Sure, it's not in the depths of a recession that Ireland is but winter is coming.

I've heard of a few Whitewalker spottings in WA alright...

randombar · 11-06-2013 1:56pm

Remember with all this money transfer etc. xe.com is your friend, the lowest cost in money transfer I came across anyway.

// Gary

catbear · 11-06-2013 2:26pm

sin_city wrote: »

I don't see the point really. Are you saying WA is a bad place to go for work? I would say it is one of the best places an Irish person can go still.

The point is that regardless of opinions on whether WA is in recession or not there's no disputing that there is a new post mining boom reality.
How it affects anyones prospects depends on if their skill is in demand or not.
Thankfully I'm not job hunting at the moment but as it stands if conditions continue at the current subdued level then I may be heading home by the end of the year.

Batgurl · 11-06-2013 2:31pm

sin_city wrote: »

Basing it on my brother and 4 of his friends and his girlfriend working there. They work in Port Hedland. My brother went drove up from Perth after being on east coast with me. He had a job within 2 days. His girlfriend worked in Subway for 3 weeks and got the job she wanted. All are making crazy money...working long hours in fairness but they reckon they'll be able to buy a nice house back home early next year in cash.

Another brother and a mate work in Perth. Doing well too.

I compare all this to my Dad who is working at home and struggling.

Keep your salt for yourself missus.

So you're basing it on isolated stories? Well, that settles that then.

Tis alright lads, no need to do any of that budgetary crap to work out whether WA's economy is in financial difficulty...a couple of Sin Citys mates got work so we're all going to be grand - WAHEY!

I'll keep the salt then thanks - will come in handy during winter

Sundy · 11-06-2013 3:43pm

Exploration budgets being cut is the biggest hint that the mining boom is over. When mining companies wont put money in exploration it means they dont see themsleves being in positive cash flow in the next few years.

Its inevitable that this will have an effect throughout the mining industry and i have seen it myself with some mining consultants going 3 day weeks.
Jobs are still available here but sentiment is changing

Carlosd · 12-06-2013 12:56am

Interesting Australian dollar euro exchange rate graph, check the 6 month graph
http://www.transfermate.com/en/historical_exchange_rates.asp

catbear · 12-06-2013 1:42am

Carlosd wrote: »

Interesting Australian dollar euro exchange rate graph, check the 6 month graph
http://www.transfermate.com/en/historical_exchange_rates.asp

When I opened the link it had the EUR/USD rate.

Anyway here's the 10 year rate, the left scale showing the Aus$ in Euro cents, ie around the end of 08 the Aus Dollar was around 50c Euro.
http://www.dollars.com/images/charts/AUD_EUR_10year.png
You can see the mining investment ramp up from there.

Carlosd · 12-06-2013 1:52am

You have to select the currencies,

See below longer euro Australian dollar link

http://www.transfermate.com/en/exchange_rates_table_eur_aud.asp?form_id=269&doit=0&date_from=&date_to=&p=1+year&button_subscribe=Submit

mise_me_fein3 · 12-06-2013 5:12am

Batgurl wrote: »

So you're basing it on isolated stories? Well, that settles that then.

Tis alright lads, no need to do any of that budgetary crap to work out whether WA's economy is in financial difficulty...a couple of Sin Citys mates got work so we're all going to be grand - WAHEY!

I'll keep the salt then thanks - will come in handy during winter

Didn't you see some of the links posted on this thread?

What are you basing your opinion on? Scaremongering?

A currency goes up or down not only in relation to the economy related to one of the currency's.
The AUD got stronger because of other currency's weaknesses and if you think all of this has been sorted and that America and Europe are about to embark on the good times you are very wrong.

The AUD will go up and down but I expect long term for it to go up whether or not there is a mining "boom".

catbear · 12-06-2013 6:01am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

The AUD got stronger because of other currency's weaknesses and if you think all of this has been sorted and that America and Europe are about to embark on the good times you are very wrong.

The Aussie$ strength relative to the € is entirely to do with Chinese demand, while not publicly acknowledging it nearly all Australian will concede that point. The Aus is still overvalued, especially when it's cheaper to buy LNG from the US than extract it from their own soil.
As it's hard to invest directly into China many put their money into Australia as it was now a conduit of the Chinese boom.
To put it simply the Australian property bubble which was going down with the rest in 08 was supported by the mining boom which in turn is driven by a centrally commanded Chinese infrastructure programme which has led in turn to a Chinese property bubble which is currently sustaining demand in ore exports.

Batgurl · 12-06-2013 7:43am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Didn't you see some of the links posted on this thread?

What are you basing your opinion on? Scaremongering?

The AUD will go up and down but I expect long term for it to go up whether or not there is a mining "boom".

You are as entitled to your opinion as I am mine and I respect that.

Not going to try and force my beliefs on anyone.

However, coming from a media background, I am basing my opinion on raw unbiased stats that haven't been skewed or angled by any subsequent publication.

I hope the stats are wrong and that your unbridled optimism is correct.

markymark21 · 13-06-2013 7:45am

I think I'm going to use all of our savings and buy a heap of BitCoin! Be graaaand!

res ipsa · 21-06-2013 8:24am

Sin city u said I was talking wa1nk.
Looks like Res Ipsa Loquitur.

rightyabe · 21-06-2013 9:53am

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

res ipsa · 21-06-2013 10:20am

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

Some ppl knew. Some ppl didn't + a the vast majority didn't want to know that they didn't want to know.

Aussie dollar falling

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