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Modern Monetary Theory and the economic crisis

2

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    nesf wrote: »

    If you're going to argue against something in this forum you need to do better than satire.

    I have tried rational debate on the issue but, like so many others in this forum, I found that that is a pointless exercise so I have decided to try satire as a last resort when logic has failed. If that is not permitted then I give up. MMT you have indeed beaten me. Sorry for offending mods. Wont do it again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    Sorry for offending mods. Wont do it again.

    Thanks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    I have tried rational debate on the issue but, like so many others in this forum, I found that that is a pointless exercise so I have decided to try satire as a last resort when logic has failed.
    Yes because you pretty much don't have any rational arguments against it (and aren't interested in trying to present any), hence your resorting to what is supposed to be 'satire'; you make clear here and elsewhere on the forum, you come into discussion over it with zero interest in actually discussing it, only in dumping on threads to derail discussion of it.

    I'm happy to engage in debate on this topic, with people who are critical of it (even with people who either clearly have some personal issue, or who only hold the most specious respect for logical argument, with no actual interest in the topic other than to disparage it), but it is indeed a pointless exercise, trying to debate with someone who does not even have an argument at this stage, and is just taking a dump on a thread, for the sake of it (months after they stopped bothering posting any real arguments).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    Yes because you pretty much don't have any rational arguments against it (and aren't interested in rying to present any), hence your resorting to what is supposed to be 'satire'; you make clear here and elsewhere on the forum, you come into discussion over it with zero interest in actually discussing it, only in dumping on threads to derail discussion of it.

    I'm happy to engage in debate on this topic, with people who are critical of it (even with people who either clearly have some personal issue, or who only hold the most specious respect for logical argument, with no actual interest in the topic other than to disparage it), but it is indeed a pointless exercise, trying to debate with someone who does not even have an argument at this stage, and is just taking a dump on a thread, for the sake of it (months after they stopped bothering posting any real arguments).

    Fair enough. Obviously we won't reach a compromise on this. Id just like to make two comments in response to this post:
    1 I'm not the only one who claims to have this experience with you. There are many of us who find any debate with you pointless and tedious.
    2 you have a habit of hijacking other debate with the same argument and degenerating lots of threads to discussions on the same topic i.e. MMT.

    Anyway. Hope the satire didn't offend you
    Too much!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    Fair enough. Obviously we won't reach a compromise on this. Id just like to make two comments in response to this post:
    1 I'm not the only one who claims to have this experience with you. There are many of us who find any debate with you pointless and tedious.
    2 you have a habit of hijacking other debate with the same argument and degenerating lots of threads to discussions on the same topic i.e. MMT.

    Anyway. Hope the satire didn't offend you
    Too much!
    If people have a problem with the manner in which I debate, they are free to state what problems they have, and if the criticisms makes sense, I would take that on board; the posters who have the most visibly biggest problems with my posts describing MMT policies, tend to be the ones that drop into wholly specious levels of argument, and give up any effort at honest discourse (preferring to nitpick, pour scorn, and try to disparage discussion); usually it is so persistent, that it is not possible to just ignore it, and thus it leads to heavily circular arguments; that is certainly pointless and tedious.

    The topic of public (government) use of money creation, is applicable to every single political/economic thread, that relates even remotely to the national debt, government spending, austerity, the economic crisis in general, and just about every discussion involving any of that.

    People had a problem with me specifically mentioning MMT in support of my arguments before, but there have been no similar problems with discussing its policies instead; people are free to challenge my arguments on that topic whenever they are brought up, and nobody has presented a criticism of it that I have not provided an explanation/solution for.

    My experience, is that most people are willing and interested in learning about it (and most stay understandably skeptical, which is grand), and there are a core number of posters (typically a handful of Austrian/Libertarian and comparably economically-right-wing posters) who love to disparage it and try to prevent discussion of it altogether.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    David Cameron made comments a couple of weeks ago, that there is "no magic money tree", prompting the associate editor of the Financial Times, Martin Wolf (one of the most influential economic writers around), to lambast him, saying “There is a money tree. It is called the Bank of England”.

    Just happened across a link to this now as well on the Positive Money site, which I found recently, where the British Chancellor George Osborne has also disagreed with Cameron in an official document, stating that it is possible to use money creation to fund government deficits:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ann-pettifor/its-official-there-is-a-m_b_2945721.html

    Hopefully a sign that the idea of public use of money creation, is slowly gaining mainstream acceptance; the UK is the one country in the EU, that is most capable of implementing such policies.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    KyussBishop, please don't turn this into a blog. If people aren't debating with you let the thread die a natural death.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Well, others have expressed interest in the stuff, including another mod of this forum, and have expressed desire for posts:
    andrew wrote: »
    Please do keep this stuff coming; I havn't had a chance to read much of it but it's interesting :)

    I don't intend to treat it as a blog; when I (rarely) come across something particularly relevant, I provide a link describing parts of MMT better than I have, or cross-post some of my relevant posts from other parts of the forum.

    Usually this stuff helps generate some discussion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    It's a discussion forum, if people aren't discussing it with you...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    nesf wrote: »
    It's a discussion forum, if people aren't discussing it with you...
    People do; (worthwhile) discussion has been generated, from my occasional replies providing more information, which others (including a mod) have expressed interest in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    People do; (worthwhile) discussion has been generated, from my occasional replies providing more information, which others (including a mod) have expressed interest in.

    The average post by you in this thread is not answered. It is generally followed by another unanswered post by you. This is what I'm getting at. That a few people a month ago showed interest does not mean there is interest now. I do hope people start posting in this thread and debating with you but they're not and as such this is becoming more a blog than a thread on a forum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    I understand how you see it, but I was discussing the topic with moneymad only last week, and Lantus a couple of weeks before that; a firestorm of interest insofar as the Economics forum goes ;)

    Most of my posts (even discarding replies to ezra and non-MMT posts), bar 4-5 providing better descriptions of MMT or links relating to it, have either been in reply to others, or replied to; primarily the posts that aren't replied to, are just providing more information for anyone interested in reading more about MMT.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭moneymad


    I understand how you see it, but I was discussing the topic with moneymad only last week, and Lantus a couple of weeks before that; a firestorm of interest insofar as the Economics forum goes ;)

    Most of my posts (even discarding replies to ezra and non-MMT posts), bar 4-5 providing better descriptions of MMT or links relating to it, have either been in reply to others, or replied to; primarily the posts that aren't replied to, are just providing more information for anyone interested in reading more about MMT.

    Announcing special event: MMT vs Austrian economics debate at Columbia Law, June 3rd

    mmt-vs-austrian-school

    Livestream: A livestream will be available on the day of the event and can be accessed from the home page or at this permanent link.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Thanks, that looks like it should be interesting :)

    While replying, here is a good article from David Graeber, which gives a shout-out to MMT and some prominent writers on the topic (including Warren Mosler, from the link above):
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/21/no-need-for-economic-sadomasochism

    Graeber is well known for his book 'Debt: The first 5,000 Years' (which I've been meaning to get around to):
    http://www.amazon.com/Debt-The-First-000-Years/dp/1612191290/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1357230016&sr=8-1&keywords=debt+the+first+5000+years


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭moneymad


    http://www.modernmoneynetwork.org/mmt-vs-austrian-school.html

    Here's the video from that live broadcast. Skip ahead to around 22min


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Ah nice, cheers! :) I've been waiting for them to put that up (was taking a while), but had forgotten about it.

    Here it is on youtube as well:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrhR_IDVAmE&t=22m30s


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    There seems to be a general misunderstanding in most economic/political discussion, of the conditions necessary to trigger hyperinflation, and of how inflation itself works.

    Particularly, a lot of people seem to think that hyperinflation can be triggered purely by human psychology (losing trust in the value of money, causing value of money to drop, causing losing trust etc...), minus any triggering factors (such as a large devaluation or industrial destruction).
    However, while psychology always plays a defining part in hyperinflation, it has not been the trigger of any hyperinflation in modern history, and I don't believe it has (in general) ever been a lone trigger (this image gives a good outline of some causes).

    In addition, when people talk about inflation, they don't seem to recognize that general inflation is affected both by economic output, and by the employment level (such that if you increase both output and employment, using deficit spending - however it is sourced - it doesn't need to create inflation), or that on a per-resource basis, inflation is determined based upon supply and demand (with inflation happening primarily when supply, or the rate of growth of supply, is not adequate to meet demand), which means avoiding general inflation is largely about avoiding physical resource-constraints (a really important point, when e.g. Europe has no real shortage of resources).

    People seem to have a very simplistic and inaccurate understanding of both, to such a degree, that it obstructs debate on the topic of money creation/destruction.


    So, I want to borrow a thought experiment I posted on another subforum, and see what peoples response to it is (to test my narrative; consider this example in the context of the UK):
    Government spending depends upon taxation (often supplemented with national debt, but assume a balanced budget here), but consider what happens if you change this so that government is given the direct power to create/destroy money, and government spending is funded exclusively with created money, with taxes governments collects being destroyed (all of this handled within electronic accounting, so no physical 'money' is actually destroyed).

    Since taxes and spending would be balanced, no extra money is entering into the economy, yet government is both creating money for funding, and is destroying money.
    It has been argued to me, that this will cause hyperinflation due to loss in trust in the currency, but no rational reason has been described for this loss of trust; it is a purely circular psychological argument (circular, because there is no initial trigger e.g. devaluation, to rationalize a loss in trust in the currency).

    This seems to explicitly be the core of the hyperinflation argument (psychology - minus trigger), whenever you hear it mentioned anywhere; this seems to be a false/fallacious argument. Do others think this thought experiment would lead to hyperinflation; if so, why?


    For those that think it would not lead to hyperinflation:
    This reconfiguration of government finances, eliminates traditional views on taxes/spending; what is the limit to spending? (there is one - just leaving the question open) and what is the new purpose of taxes, now that they do not fund government?


    Note: There is no 'theory' behind any of this, it is purely a thought experiment, about the very real ability for money to be created/destroyed, and for exploring what would happen if that ability were used in a certain way.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    no rational reason has been described for this loss of trust

    As far as I'm aware, nearly every instance (if not every instance) of hyperinflation has been caused by a Central Bank monetising government debt, due to Central Bank 'capture' by government. The mechanism by which government controlled monetary policy would lead to hyperinflation, then, is that it would be unable to resist the temptation to monetise its debt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    I think you are mistaking foreign-denominated debt, for debt denominated in the countries local currency; monetizing debt made up of a currency not under your control, means exchanging your printed currency for the foreign currency, which devalues the local currency - this then makes the remaining debt burden grow, requiring printing even more local currency than before, for every unit of foreign currency paid off (i.e. the more you devalue, the harder it gets to pay off, until you devalue so much you hit hyperinflation).

    That also, the distinction between debt in locally-controlled currency, and debt in foreign-controlled currency, is also perhaps one of the most misunderstood aspects of hyperinflation, and monetization of debt in general; many of the famous examples of hyperinflation, have been down to forced payment of debts in foreign currencies (e.g Weimar Germany), and others (like Zimbabwe) are down to both industrial destruction and political ineptitude.


    In any case: The part you quote "no rational reason has been described for this loss of trust" - that part was about the thought experiment I put forward:
    With government utilizing money creation for spending, and destroying (through electronic accounting) money taken in taxes, with a balanced budget, there is no logical reason to assume hyperinflation (or indeed, any ill effect), since there is nothing to justify a fear in the loss of value of money.

    Looking at the consequences of that, on how government financing works when you make that change, leads to some pretty big rethinking about how economics should be practiced.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Nope, I'm not mistaking foreign-denominated debt, for debt denominated in the countries local currency.

    What you've described is just one thing that a government might decide to spend money on (foreign denominated debt) and the harms that accrue from a government which pays for that debt via Central Bank money creation.

    My point, which your example nicely illustrates, is that a government in control of the money supply might choose to inflate the money supply in order to finance government expenditure. Maybe it'd do so to try to pay foreign denominated debt. Maybe it'd do so to pay locally denominated debt. Maybe it'd do so to fund current expenditure on other items. The end result is the same; inflation. Given that, I'd say it's a bad idea to let a government control the money supply. This is why Central Bank independence is a thing.

    You note that governments have no rational reason to do this. This is true. You're correct that hyperinflation does not follow as a direct and necessary result of letting the government control the money supply. Yet, we have ample examples of situations in which governments do things which are really really stupid and 'irrational.' Political ineptitude exists everywhere. There are many examples of hyperinflation, some caused by foreign denominated debt, some not. Hyperinflation might not follow as a direct consequence of letting the government control the money supply, but my argument is that, given history, and given the fact that most people and politicians are economically illiterate, it follows as a somewhat likely consequence, and is therefore a bad idea.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    A government funding itself through money creation wouldn't have any national debt though :) why would it need national debt, when it can fund through money creation? (assume that current debt - in the context of the UK - would be paid off only when it falls due, until there is no debt left, and that there is no future expansion of debt)

    The point of the thought experiment first of all though, is to consider it with a balanced budget: In that case there are no negative consequences.
    I think that you agree there? So I'll relax the idea of balanced budgets (if anyone else disagrees with me though - assume balanced budgets and we can start from there; want to avoid the usual hyperinflation argument trap).


    So, with balanced budgets relaxed, I want to take a smaller step forward than you have:
    What would be the new limit on government spending, if it is not related to taxes and debt? Would you agree, that the limit would be inflation? (for example, a policy setting a targeted level of inflation of, perhaps, 4%?)

    If you agree the limit would be inflation, do you agree that inflation is affected by economic output (lets consider that GDP for the moment), and the level of employment? (such that, it is possible to avoid excessive inflation if you are boosting GDP/employment, but inflation becomes unavoidable once you hit full employment)
    If so, then do you think a responsible government, could use this power, to employ people on useful public works projects, and return those people to the private sector, when the private sector demands them?

    If you agree there, isn't that an enormous unused potential for resolving economic crisis?


    Sorry to overload on the questions a bit :) I'm just trying to take this step-by-step, to avoid the usual traps in discussing this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    On the topic of central bank independence:
    In my view, central banks are primarily staffed with ex-banking/finance industry personnel, who have 'captured' the regulatory system and abuse money creating privileges to their advantage, such as by blowing housing bubbles and other asset bubbles, which destabilize the economy.

    So, while central banks are independent in theory, I don't think they are in reality, because of the significant regulatory capture and revolving door with the banking/finance industry.

    I think also, that they are responsible for significant inflation in the economy; primarily the inflation of the housing bubble (which caused a huge amount of knock-on inflation), which helped to destabilize the entire economy.


    This also, in my eyes, means that they are an undemocratic institution - the heads aren't directly elected by the people, and they have very little accountability to the public.
    I don't see why governments would not be held more responsible for economic damage, particularly inflation, than the central banks are - I also don't see why government can't be more legally restricted, against causing inflation, than central banks.

    Still, I agree that the discussion of potential government harm is a very important one; I think that just as important though, is the discussion of potential benefit that the government can provide, with economic stabilizers funded by money creation, and inflation managed through money destruction (that second point may sound a bit unusual - but when you think about it, that is one of the new role for taxes, once you adjust government finances like my thought experiment).

    While the potential harm is important, I don't think it should preclude discussion of the potentially massive benefits, as normally seems to happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    Why bother taxing at all? Or borrowing? In fact why bother working?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    "why bother working" - this immediately seems very facetious, like you're not really interested in debating, but more interested in sneering and beginning to try and brow-beat for trying to discuss this topic.

    I want this to be a constructive discussion, not one where all discussion opposing me, is monopolized by one disagreeing poster who has no interest in civil or honest debate (which then drives everyone else away from the thread), so (based on this and past experience with you) I'm not going to discuss this with you, but will with other posters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    Why bother taxing at all? Or borrowing? In fact why bother working?

    Seriously. Why tax? Why borrow money? Why make your electorate work when you can create plenty well fair money for them? Electorates hate tax and governments hate borrowing. So why tax, or borrow if there's a simple risk free alternative?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    andrew wrote: »
    Given that, I'd say it's a bad idea to let a government control the money supply. This is why Central Bank independence is a thing.

    Why are Central Banks so against audits? Who owns them and why are they so secretive?

    Can we trust Central Banks more than a transparent government?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Hyperinflation thread merged with thread about MMT, since they're quite similar.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    sin_city wrote: »
    Why are Central Banks so against audits? Who owns them and why are they so secretive?


    With regard to ideas like this, please note the charter; specifically the bit about conspiracy theories. This forum takes it as given that Central Banks are not part of any kind of secretive global conspiracy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    andrew wrote: »
    With regard to ideas like this, please note the charter; specifically the bit about conspiracy theories. This forum takes it as given that Central Banks are not part of any kind of secretive global conspiracy.


    Secretive global conspiracy?

    I'm not saying that. They pay dividends to their owners but don't allow audits. You prefer this type of independence over accountable people in government?

    I think this system lets both Central Bankers and governments off the hook and they can both blame each other.


    On the topic, I hope this crisis brings the end to Central Banks as it's not right for one private entity to have a monopoly on money in my opinion. This weakens competition.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Discussion of hyperinflation/inflation and different ways of creating/destroying money doesn't equal MMT; MMT may be built upon that as a base, but one is not synonymous with the other.

    It's a bit like taking a thread discussing free market capitalism, and bundling it into a thread about Austrian economics.

    I'd wanted the new thread not to turn into one where it's me vs one poster, who has no interest in civil/honest debate (which then drives everyone away from the discussion), so bundling the posts into a thread that became exactly that, pretty much achieves that effect.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    andrew wrote: »
    With regard to ideas like this, please note the charter; specifically the bit about conspiracy theories. This forum takes it as given that Central Banks are not part of any kind of secretive global conspiracy.

    But at the same time one can't deny that they are in collusion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    Rightwing wrote: »
    But at the same time one can't deny that they are in collusion.

    With whom? The lizard people?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    With whom? The lizard people?

    Themselves ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    On a related topic to the central bank issue, there is a recently formed group in Ireland, the Public Banking Forum Ireland, who (as you guess) advocate a public bank.
    They recently had a talk in Ireland from Ellen Brown (who holds views about money, different but similar to the threads topic); she posted up her presentation for that talk, which is very interesting:
    http://ellenbrown.com/2013/10/16/public-banking-forum-of-ireland-power-point-the-irish-debt-crisis-time-to-think-outside-the-box/

    In that presentation, there is a particularly interesting take on the modern history of central banks, which I have not learned about before, and how their regulatory system is (voluntarily I believe) centralized with the Bank of International Settlements.

    It seems that Canada joining BIS, was the means by which their Public Bank was reigned in, and how the Canadian government was made to rely more on private banks for funding their national debt (which is far more costly in terms of interest, and thus far less sustainable, as the presentation explains).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    sin_city wrote: »
    Secretive global conspiracy?

    I'm not saying that. They pay dividends to their owners but don't allow audits. You prefer this type of independence over accountable people in government?

    I think this system lets both Central Bankers and governments off the hook and they can both blame each other.


    On the topic, I hope this crisis brings the end to Central Banks as it's not right for one private entity to have a monopoly on money in my opinion. This weakens competition.

    Do you seriously not realise that central banks pay dividends to the exchequer? Up to 20% of the ECBs profit can be kept in reserve for the future, with the rest being divided up between national govts depending on how much capital they put in. The central bank is not run for profit so I don't see how you can complain about a monopoly :confused:

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/capital/html/index.en.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    This isn't MMT, but it is very closely related; the Green party in the UK, has come out as supporting the removal of private control over money creation, and of putting this in the hands of government:
    At the autumn conference, the Greens adopted a resolution calling for “a programme of reform to remove the power to create money from private banks, and to fully restore the supply of our national currency to democratic and public control so that it can be issued free of debt and directed to environmentally and socially beneficial areas.”
    ...
    "The existing banking system is undemocratic, unfair and highly damaging. Banks not only create money, they also decide how it is first used – and have used this power to fund financial speculation and reckless mortgage lending, rather than to finance investment in productive businesses. Through the interest charged on the loans on which all credit is based, the current banking system increases inequality. It also regularly causes economic crises: banks create and lend more and more money until the level of debt becomes unsustainable, boom turns to bust, and the taxpayer bails out banks that are ‘too big to fail.’ Finally, the need to service the growing mountain of debt on which our money is based is a key driver of unsustainable economic growth that is destroying the environment."
    ...
    Reclaiming seignorage for public benefit has been a serious idea among many progressive economists for years. A notable figure in this regard is James Robertson, the founder of the new economic foundation in Great Britain, in 1986, who has championed this issue for years. Robertson’s most recent book Future Money explains how re-gaining public control over how new money is created and circulated could result in “an annual savings to all citizens of the UK of £75bn, and second in a one-off benefit to the public purse totalling £1.5bn over a three-year transition period.”

    Austerity budgets could be made moot if the public were to reclaim the right of seignorage for public benefit. As it now stands, some 97 percent of new money in the UK is created by banks through lending, resulting in enormous profits in the form of interest. Between 2004 and 2010, British banks created £1.1 trillion in new money. Writes Robertson: “Had the Government been able to create this money instead, then it would have been able to repay 80 percent of national debt of the UK Government.”
    ...
    As Robertson explains, public seignorage would allow us to avoid “the hidden tax that we all pay to commercial banks as interest on the bank account money in circulation.” And we could “profiting from the one-off increase in public revenue by converting the money supply now created by commercial banks as debt into money created free of debt by the Bank of England. In the short term this would relieve the unjust ‘austerity’ now being inflicted on the poorer sections of society. In the longer term it would create a fairer and more efficient economy for everyone in a 21st-century society.”
    http://bollier.org/blog/british-green-party-calls-public-control-money-supply

    They've hit almost every nail on the head there; it looks like the whole idea of monetary reform, may be about to gain some serious and permanent mainstream traction, at last.


    Here in Ireland, it is possible for us to undertake similar policies, using Tax Anticipation Notes as I described in the other thread; this would allow the government-spending portion of the proposed Green Party reforms, even while we're still in the Euro.

    TAN's would not include banking reform though, but it is likely still possible to achieve this, through the creation of a public bank - I haven't explored the possibilities of doing this while in the Euro though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Ben Dyson runs the UK's Positive Money campaign, which is not MMT but which advocates monetary reform analogous to MMT, and (following-on from the recent Green party support for similar policies) he just put out a good article in the Guardian:
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/feb/06/change-uk-money-system-solve-long-term-economic-problems

    There's a really great description there, of how banks in the UK, used their money creating abilities to pump up the property market, rather than put it into sustainable business:
    ...
    The Bank Charter Act 1844 prohibited anyone other than the Bank of England from printing paper money. Before it was passed, high street banks had been handing out pieces of paper as receipts for the metal coins that people deposited with them. Over time, the paper receipts became accepted as being as good as the coins, and were used as though they were money. Borrowers would sign loan agreements and accept a piece of paper with the bank's name on it, rather than asking for coins issued by the Royal Mint. In a stroke of luck, bankers had acquired the power to literally print money.

    Naturally, banks found it hard to resist the temptation to make more loans by simply printing more paper money. The credit bubble that resulted – and the subsequent bust – prompted the government to prohibit banks from creating money in the form of paper notes.

    But the 1844 law was never updated to apply to electronic money and still only applies to paper notes. Metal coins and paper notes now make up just 3% of all the money in the UK. The remaining 97% of money consists of essentially numbers in high street banks' computer systems. Banks create this electronic money through a simple accounting process whenever someone takes out a loan.

    In the decade preceding the financial crisis, banks created more than a trillion pounds of new money – and new debt – this way. Of this new money, 51% went straight into property, artificially inflating house prices, with salaries unable to keep up. A further 32% went into the financial markets, fuelling good times for the City but storing up problems for the future. Just 8% went to the non-financial businesses that create jobs and employment, and a further 8% went on personal loans and credit cards.

    Now imagine if we updated the laws so that banks were prohibited from creating both paper and electronic money. Instead, electronic money could be created directly by the Bank of England and added to the central government's bank account. The government would then put that money into the real economy, through government spending or tax rebates.

    It could even give everyone their equal share – an idea described as quantitative easing (QE) for the people. Instead of flooding property and financial markets, money created in this way could start its life in the real economy, boosting GDP and employment rather than inflating house prices and household debt burdens.

    Some economists will worry about the effects of newly created money on inflation. But they forget that money is currently created every time a new loan is made, by bankers who have no interest in the effect of their lending on inflation. In contrast, the Bank of England would watch inflation and would hold off on creating money if it started to feed through into higher prices.
    ...

    That's an incredibly good summary of the current monetary system, how banks can create money and abuse that in ways that promote massive inflation in certain sectors, and how it can be reformed for the public good.

    The UK is far more suited to this than Ireland at the moment, due to not being in the Euro and thus having control over their own currency, yet Ireland can achieve similar measures, with public banking reforms and the TAN's mentioned in my previous post.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    On a related topic to the central bank issue, there is a recently formed group in Ireland, the Public Banking Forum Ireland, who (as you guess) advocate a public bank.
    They recently had a talk in Ireland from Ellen Brown (who holds views about money, different but similar to the threads topic); she posted up her presentation for that talk, which is very interesting:
    http://ellenbrown.com/2013/10/16/public-banking-forum-of-ireland-power-point-the-irish-debt-crisis-time-to-think-outside-the-box/

    In that presentation, there is a particularly interesting take on the modern history of central banks, which I have not learned about before, and how their regulatory system is (voluntarily I believe) centralized with the Bank of International Settlements.

    It seems that Canada joining BIS, was the means by which their Public Bank was reigned in, and how the Canadian government was made to rely more on private banks for funding their national debt (which is far more costly in terms of interest, and thus far less sustainable, as the presentation explains).
    Oh, and looking back at this: A while ago I did some reading into the founders of the Public Banking Forum Ireland, and unfortunately they don't seem to be very credible people (however, Ellen Brown - who is not a part of that group - is a very well known and credible monetary reformist) - there are Direct Democracy Ireland supporters (i.e. people happy to associate with freeman quacks), and 9/11 conspiracy theorists among them...

    Ireland seems to have very few alternative political movements which don't discredit themselves through similar associations - which, in my view, is a very big problem; we sorely need more credible people campaigning on these issues.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Looks like Martin Wolf (editor of the Financial Times) is coming out in favour of granting government the power to create money - as I said in the 'endogenous money' thread, this is a Big Deal - a pretty ginormous (and very publicly important) change of view, for someone as influential as Martin Wolf:
    A still stronger reason is that subcontracting the job of creating money to private profit-seeking businesses is not the only possible monetary system. It may not be even the best one. Indeed, there is a case for letting the state create money directly. I plan to address such possibilities in a future column.

    Article: "Only the ignorant live in fear of hyperinflation"
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46a1ce84-bf2a-11e3-a4af-00144feabdc0.html

    This is by no means MMT, but I think the Bank of England recognizing Endogenous Money (the fact that banks create money when they make loans), now coupled with Martin Wolf starting to come out in support of government use of money creation, is a very notable vindication of the economic principles behind MMT (even if people disagree with the policy proscriptions).


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    It'll be interesting to see what he has to say about that. It'll take a lot to convince people that letting the government put money into the economy is anything other than a recipe for uncontrollable inflation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    True indeed - though to be honest, I think that fear is more of a 'taboo' than most else; the fear of that, seems to be so great, that it actually precludes any discussion, of comparing the damage (and potential damage) of private money creation, versus public/government money creation - and of the mechanics of money creation and inflation itself.

    That's a discussion that's necessary, in order to actually ground that fear in anything other than emotional argument - yet the emotional arguments surrounding that, preclude the actual discussion.

    Yes though, it will be quite interesting to see what Martin Wolf has to say :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    That is huge, the financial Times is a widely read and respected newspaper. It's a nice theory but the problem I just can't get my head around is how we can trust the government to take enough money out of the economy to prevent inflation when it is in their interest not to. Especially in the final year of an election term.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    It would require a responsible government, for sure - the thing is, it is already possible for private sector influence on banks and regulatory capture of the central bank, to create exactly that problem - and that's arguably what happened with the property bubble.

    Once governments have power over money creation, they would no longer be able to abdicate responsibility for inflation anymore though, they would be directly responsible - which is a bonus:
    The population would know that government does have the power to control inflation within the economy, through taxes, and so would be able to hold government responsible at election time, for excessive inflation.


    I think that the policies that government use of money creation would allow (it would allow permanent full employment, with government as employer of last resort - using a Job Guarantee); I think that would make the population less susceptible to influence by government at election time, by flooding the economy with money, because things would already be kept fairly prosperous, with greatly lessened economic cycles (and with much less social impact, due to the Job Guarantee).

    That said, this (populist abuse of fiscal-policy/money-creation) isn't an area I've put a lot of thought into yet :) (discussion hasn't usually gotten this far, in the past)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Once governments have power over money creation, they would no longer be able to abdicate responsibility for inflation anymore though, they would be directly responsible - which is a bonus:
    The population would know that government does have the power to control inflation within the economy, through taxes, and so would be able to hold government responsible at election time, for excessive inflation.

    Unfortunately, I don't think the average voter has a good grasp of monetary policy, and would likely only throw a government out of power after it messes up the economy (having favoured the party who fostered short term growth over long term stability). Look at FF, re-elected into power just a few months before the s*** hit the fan. Maybe I'm wrong since inflation is an easier macroeconomic topic to understand but asking the govt. so self regulate inflation reminds me of the whole "financial sectors will self regulate because its in their best interest" spiel we heard a few years back...

    Also it would be interesting to see how this would work within the EU seeing as we don't have a real central bank in this country at present. Probably more integration needed with europe.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    ^^ That's true, but it's a similar problem to what we have now: The average voter doesn't know anything about banking regulations, so we are going to head into a new period of inflationary bubbles, because nothing has been reformed - same problem, manifested in a different way (and controlled in significant ways, by the private sector in banking/finance).

    The public are going to have to get wise, and hold governments to account - whether that be in the current system, or a post-monetary-reform system; and I think it will be far easier to hold people accountable in a post-monetary-reform system, because government would be responsible and easily held accountable, instead of private actors (banks), who can easily abdicate all responsibility.

    So educating the public will likely be an important aspect of any changes like this - and it shouldn't be too hard really: Understanding that taxes can be used to fight inflation, isn't all that difficult to grasp, once you get rid of the current incorrect myths/'common-knowledge'/false-knowledge about how economies work - and once a prominent government is successfully making use of money creation, all of those myths are going to be destroyed overnight without needing any real effort.


    So you are right about inflation: It is definitely a risk, and it's the biggest threat to ideas like government use of money creation and MMT (though people who just assert 'hyperinflation' - which, to be clear, you are definitely not doing :) - are usually just trying to block all discussion of it) - a government misusing that power and creating significant inflation, carries a great risk of discrediting the whole idea, even though it shouldn't as it would be the fault of the government abusing that power.

    Given the amount of power that money creation grants private entities at the moment, it's highly likely there will be deliberate attempts to cause inflation, to discredit the idea and keep that power in private hands - either by lobby influence on government fiscal policy, or by making the mistake of allowing lightly-regulated banks to keep money-creation powers (which they could use to create massive inflationary bubbles again, and blame it on government).

    There is past precedent of this - this is how public use of money creation has been discredited in the past.


    In Europe, we would definitely need more integration - but there are stop-gap measures, like Tax Anticipation Notes, that allow something analogous to (but not the same as) money creation powers, but which are much more limited and are no panacea.

    In the medium/long-run, Europe is either going to need to integrate fiscally, or split back up into using national currencies.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    There is a very good introductory explanation of MMT, which also touches on some less explored parts of the topic (combined Job and Income Guarantee), here:
    http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/the-world-according-to-modern-monetary-theory/

    Definitely one of the better all-encompassing overviews I've read; what I'd like the OP to have resembled.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    As said in the endogenous money thread - Martin Wolf, comes out in support of public use of money creation:
    Well, this couldn't be more explicit - Martin Wolf:

    "Strip private banks of their power to create money"
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7f000b18-ca44-11e3-bb92-00144feabdc0.html

    Some more relevant parts:
    ...the central bank would create new money as needed to promote non-inflationary growth. Decisions on money creation would, as now, be taken by a committee independent of government.

    Finally, the new money would be injected into the economy in four possible ways: to finance government spending, in place of taxes or borrowing; to make direct payments to citizens; to redeem outstanding debts, public or private; or to make new loans through banks or other intermediaries. All such mechanisms could (and should) be made as transparent as one might wish.

    The transition to a system in which money creation is separated from financial intermediation would be feasible, albeit complex. But it would bring huge advantages. It would be possible to increase the money supply without encouraging people to borrow to the hilt. It would end “too big to fail” in banking. It would also transfer seignorage – the benefits from creating money – to the public. In 2013, for example, sterling M1 (transactions money) was 80 per cent of gross domestic product. If the central bank decided this could grow at 5 per cent a year, the government could run a fiscal deficit of 4 per cent of GDP without borrowing or taxing. The right might decide to cut taxes, the left to raise spending. The choice would be political, as it should be.
    ...
    This will not happen now. But remember the possibility. When the next crisis comes – and it surely will – we need to be ready.

    As described above, part of this can mean, government use of money creation, for fiscal funding - that pretty much vindicates MMT, and from an economist as influential as Martin Wolf no less (again: leading editor of the Financial Times).

    This is a pretty big deal, in my view - hopefully should see support for this kick up a lot of steam now, since this is going to help it gain a lot more credibility.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    Replying to this here from another thread:
    It's more or less, the work of Milton Friedman. MMT is managing an economy through managing the money supply. It's headache inducing the wrong headed ideas people have about it, but essentially it comes down to managing inflation. Reducing the money supply through CB interest rates to curb inflation, and then in a depression printing money via QE to stop deflation.

    When fully applied, it means poor people (that's most of us) pay for a depression through austerity, strangely this also means a massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in bad times, because money is being printed. And when the good times come, the poor receive few to none of the benefits, because the interest rates are kranked up to keep them precariously on the edge of falling onto the dole queue.

    Most people who have an opinion of Milton Friedmann, believe he was evil, this includes the rich people who love him. I believe he was just an idiot.
    No, lots of the new stuff being bandied about is in fact the old stuff; Friedman. Friedman could be quite contradictory. So, he could be for a basic income, in the form of a negative tax, but against a welfare payment from social security. His right-wing supporters tended to hear what they wanted to hear and tune out the rest.

    He was hypersensitive to criticism and would never admit to flaws or possible mistakes in his theory. After the 1973 coup in Chile, Pinochet asked for his assistance in putting together an economic program. Friedman helped, but later when it proved to have been an unmitigated disaster, Friedman distanced himself from it. The guy had issues.

    The fundamental problem with Friedman's ideas, is the can, and have, been used to make the rich richer, and everyone else poorer. But I have a strong feeling they could be rewired for both a reverse of inequality, austerity, and propel real economic growth.
    Thing is, what you're describing there, directly contradicts MMT - MMT doesn't really use monetary policy, it uses fiscal policy to manage the economy.

    Many (most) MMTers explicitly state that the interest rate is not really a useful way to manage the economy at all, and that it should be left at zero, but with proper regulation guarding against overlending (since high interest rates are no substitute, for proper regulation).

    Again, I largely agree with your nuanced views on Friedman - but MMT is something different altogether to what he advocated :) (even if there are some interesting parallels with Friedman - who was quite an oddity/outlier)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    I see today that Ireland's GDP growth is predicted to be .8% above the EU average this year. Also with strong growth in the US and maybe the UK, it's seems very possible we could beat the .3% predicted difference next year. If we are growing faster than our currency partners what problems could this cause?

    With the OECD calling for a rates cut to 0% could this fuel another boom in this country and eventual bust when rates rise? Fair enough, as a whole, the Eurozone could probably do with an interest rate cut, but is it what's best for Ireland given our economy seems to be somewhat out of sync with the rest of Europe? This is similar to the conditions which lead to the Celtic Tiger boom and bust fuelled by unnaturally low interest rates thanks to the ECB.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭KyussBishop


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    I see today that Ireland's GDP growth is predicted to be .8% above the EU average this year. Also with strong growth in the US and maybe the UK, it's seems very possible we could beat the .3% predicted difference next year. If we are growing faster than our currency partners what problems could this cause?

    With the OECD calling for a rates cut to 0% could this fuel another boom in this country and eventual bust when rates rise? Fair enough, as a whole, the Eurozone could probably do with an interest rate cut, but is it what's best for Ireland given our economy seems to be somewhat out of sync with the rest of Europe? This is similar to the conditions which lead to the Celtic Tiger boom and bust fuelled by unnaturally low interest rates thanks to the ECB.
    GDP growth in Ireland ties into multinationals a lot, so a lot of the GDP growth may not actually benefit us as much as those figures imply - GNP is a better figure to look at.

    Interest rates at 0% won't really prime another bubble - not until the existing mountain of debt from the last bubble, deleverages enough.

    We do have almost no reform of regulations though, throughout Europe, so once economies start recovering proper and lending increases by a large amount again, we are likely to see more bubbles regardless of what the interest rate is.


    A lot of economists, are of the opinion that another financial/economic crisis is almost a certainty, due to the lack of reform - just a matter of when.


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