Aussie dollar falling

Xavi6 · 21-06-2013 3:50pm

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

Nope. I'm off to the States in August and had planned to buy my dollars at the end of the month

catbear · 21-06-2013 4:41pm

rightyabe wrote: »

Did anyone here think it would go as low as it did in such a short space?

I've been weary of it since i saw it go to €.5 - $1au in 08. Keep an eye on commodity prices and on any news out of China, rumblings of an internal credit crunch.

johnnyfruitcake · 21-06-2013 10:30pm

Should I send money back to Europe now? Will it rise more or fall?

statina · 21-06-2013 11:09pm

Not sure what to do now. Going home next month for a holiday. Don't know whether to transfer money now or wait in the hope that it picks up.

Caked Karen · 22-06-2013 8:27am

im in the same boat as statina and not too sure what to do. going home at then end of july so dont know if it is going to change too much before then! would i be better off transferring to irish bank account? or else just top up to aussie credit card and use it at home?

statina · 22-06-2013 9:19am

Think I'll transfer now as can see it dropping further with all the negative headlines etc. Hard one to call!

catbear · 22-06-2013 4:18pm

At a long term average the Aus$ is still above value compared to all the other floating currencies so I'm happy to keep sending money back to Euros for now.

It may not do a swoon like on 08 but I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to about €66c, when it goes that low then I'm sticking to saving in Aussie dollars.

ifeelill · 23-06-2013 4:40am

$1 = €0.70

Thats about a ten cents rise in the value since the formation of this thread

catbear · 23-06-2013 2:45pm

Basically any slowdown in China is going to greatly affect the Australian Dollar. On the other hand there is more to Australia than mining so while the drop in commodity prices will affect mining states like WA and NT, the weaker Aus$ will good for other other sectors elsewhere. If what I'm hearing is correct NSW is starting to take off again for engineering/construction etc. Perhaps the end of the mining boom and its high wages is making some projects feasible again.

mise_me_fein3 · 24-06-2013 12:28am

Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.

catbear · 24-06-2013 12:39am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.

Are getting some fillings done?

rightyabe · 24-06-2013 12:47am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.

We're could a joe soap like me self buy a few ounces...of gold that is, in Australia?

And would you get the actual gold or just a piece of paper..?

catbear · 24-06-2013 12:59am

rightyabe wrote: »

We're could a joe soap like me self buy a few ounces...of gold that is, in Australia?

And would you get the actual gold or just a piece of paper..?

If you're in Perth you could go to the mint.

But why would want to buy gold, its part of the australian commodity basket so it falls alongside the Aus$. That was the whole point of the commodity boom.

rightyabe · 24-06-2013 1:02am

catbear wrote: »

If you're in Perth you could go to the mint.

Yeah checking it out here now. What's the difference in cast and minted gold..?

Deffo going to buy a oz..

catbear · 24-06-2013 2:34am

rightyabe wrote: »

Yeah checking it out here now. What's the difference in cast and minted gold..?

Deffo going to buy a oz..

Not sure what the difference is but when buying from the mint it will stamped and certified, uncertified gold could be laced with tungstun which is hard to detect.

mise_me_fein3 · 24-06-2013 3:36am

catbear wrote: »

Are getting some fillings done?

You might not value gold or silver but there is huge demand in China and India.
Think about things like this.
If the price is going down(which it has been), then it will not be worth the trouble to mine it, which means less will be mined, which means less will be available, which makes what IS actually available more expensive.
Anyone that wants to see a nice chart, have a look at the value of gold during the last 12 years.
It has increased by 500%.

If you want to buy gold or silver, go to the perth mint's site and have a look at the distributors they sell to across Oz.
Then just walk into the store and buy your bullion in person.

catbear · 24-06-2013 12:43pm

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Anyone that wants to see a nice chart, have a look at the value of gold during the last 12 years.
It has increased by 500%.

Have you looked at the chart for the last year?

Gold can have a big downside risk, but on the plus side if gold rises so too will the aus$ and that suits me fine.

raymann · 24-06-2013 3:57pm

catbear wrote: »

I've been weary of it since i saw it go to €.5 - $1au in 08. Keep an eye on commodity prices and on any news out of China, rumblings of an internal credit crunch.

the reason that happened is that everybody thought the crisis would lead to a drastic drop in demand for everything. as other posters have pointed out chinas huge stimulus program had a huge impact on the aus economy and it reflected in the currency price.

the smart money thinks this is now reversing. the question is a) will be it be a slow process or a fast one and b) has the high level of debt and the crazy forex done irreparable damage to the aus economy.

ballooba · 24-06-2013 4:11pm

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

If the price is going down(which it has been), then it will not be worth the trouble to mine it, which means less will be mined, which means less will be available, which makes what IS actually available more expensive.

I kept waiting for the smiley in your post, then I realised you were serious. You might have missed the massive asset bubble that has bankrupted Ireland. It's neither a new, nor local phenomenon. The cost of production is not a floor on the price of gold. In fact the exact same argument was made around 2007 with regard to Irish property, that the price of property could not be less than the cost of production. That went so well...

catbear · 25-06-2013 1:02am

raymann wrote: »

. as other posters have pointed out chinas huge stimulus program had a huge impact on the aus economy and it reflected in the currency price..

If you read back you'll see i was one of those poster and you'll see i think it could go to €.66. I cited the 08 swoon to demonstrate vulnerable it can be.
A weaker dollar will be good for the non mining sector.

rightyabe · 25-06-2013 4:03am

I think I'll leave the gold buying for another few weeks any way. Turns out my boss has a nice gold reserve of his own and is gonna buy some in a few days he says..

mise_me_fein3 · 25-06-2013 6:41am

ballooba wrote: »

I kept waiting for the smiley in your post, then I realised you were serious. You might have missed the massive asset bubble that has bankrupted Ireland. It's neither a new, nor local phenomenon. The cost of production is not a floor on the price of gold. In fact the exact same argument was made around 2007 with regard to Irish property, that the price of property could not be less than the cost of production. That went so well...

I think gold and houses in Ireland are two very different things.

Gold is a precious metal because there isn't a lot of it...Houses in Ireland now and in 2007......well

You probably are not aware of the differences in the physical and paper metal markets. Have a look at the number of orders that the US mint has received this year.

Perhaps some more research before you equate the Irish housing market to a precious metal.....:D There's the smiley

Bungarra · 25-06-2013 7:48am

bullionbourse and bullionlist are two online WA based companies. I've bought from them a few times. delivery can take a couple weeks though at the moment because of the amount of orders. They're cheaper than the mint and stock all their stuff as well as all the other stuff from around the world. Get the physical stuff. there's a reason there's a mark-up on the physical stuff from spot price.

rightyabe · 25-06-2013 8:49am

Bungarra wrote: »

bullionbourse and bullionlist are two online WA based companies. I've bought from them a few times. delivery can take a couple weeks though at the moment because of the amount of orders. They're cheaper than the mint and stock all their stuff as well as all the other stuff from around the world. Get the physical stuff. there's a reason there's a mark-up on the physical stuff from spot price.

What the "physical" stuff? I read on the mints site that its better to buy coins because if you ever sell a gold bar some countries won't accept it whereas coins are better..

Bungarra · 25-06-2013 3:08pm

Physical is anything you actually have a hold of. not this unallocated/paper stuff... Perth mint stuff would be easily recognisable worldwide, i wouldn't worry about it. Coins are a bit more expensive because of the cost of minting. Look nicer too.
www.silverstackers.com.au

plenty info there on all thing metallic.

rightyabe wrote: »

What the "physical" stuff? I read on the mints site that its better to buy coins because if you ever sell a gold bar some countries won't accept it whereas coins are better..

catbear · 27-06-2013 4:09am

Something for gold lovers to consider......

The bank now expects gold to end this year at $1,300 a troy ounce, down 9.4% on its previous forecast. It sees gold ending 2014 at $1,050 an ounce, down 17.3% on its earlier outlook.
Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value at times of weakness in the wider market, and is sought as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement at times of loose central bank monetary policy. The price of gold plunged 6.3% in a single session last week after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could start winding down its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year. He also said the bank could even cease the purchases next year if growth picks up, as the Fed projects, unemployment comes down and inflation moves closer to the central bank's 2% target. The Fed's bond-buying program has been a major support to gold prices in recent years.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-2013-2014-gold-forecasts-2013-06-24
If you can see the bandwagon you're too late.

Edit to add: The Aus$/€ got a lift yesterday, don't know if it has anything to do with the Rudd vote but hey those looking to buy euro soon might take advantage.

The only potential upside I can see is gold maybe being a hedge against a Aus$ devaluation but even then you might only break even as the Aus$ and gold would be on the same trajectory.

mise_me_fein3 · 27-06-2013 5:03am

We might be 2 years away or 5 years or perhaps only a few months but America is done. I don't care what Goldman Sachs writes.

There has been huge inflation and it’s not going to stop. I see these low gold prices as a great chance to buy more.
Gold had increased from $300 about 12 years ago to $1900 recently. I didn’t see any Goldman Sachs report on that. In fact, before the crash in 2008 they were advising people to sell at $750/$800.

https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/goldman_sachs_lowers_metals_forecast_gold_750
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2966.html

Or on their opinion on the stock market
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arHHMwWnKeDU

The ratings agencies also gave top rating to companies that had to be bailed out in 2008.

catbear · 27-06-2013 6:07am

First off goldman is not a rating agency and secondly it's a forecast.

I've been hearing the "america is toast" argument before I heard of subprime! I listened to people in ireland use "america is toast" to ignore the lessons of subprime as they continued to pile into property until 08. If america was toast in 2010 then ireland was incinerated.

Look i'm not against holding gold but those already holding gold will tell you it's going to the moon and the world is going to **** if it means they can offload it for a profit. Gold is the currency of fear and at either high or low prices gold traders make their profit on turnover.

Just remember to avoid a loss on gold you have to get someone to pay more than you did and in that position wouldn't you talk it up.

mise_me_fein3 · 27-06-2013 6:25am

You’re clearly not a student of history. The US dollar was back by gold until 1971 when they removed themselves from the gold standard due to the excesses of the Vietnam war. It has rocketed ever since.
Before the US had the reserve currency, it was the Pound sterling and they also removed themselves from the gold standard after World War I choosing to pay their debts in unbacked pounds. They did go back on the gold standard though it is unlikely that the Americans will do this at this stage.

Gold is money. The initial paper note was a receipt for the gold someone held in their bank account.
I’m not saying America won’t be important but the US Empire in winding down. It might take 15 to 20 years like it took the British after WW2 or it could happen quick like the Soviets but we are living it now. China, Russia, Australia, Brazil and more are making agreements to do business with each other outside of the US dollar.
There’s no way America will pay its debt, not the 16 trillion, I mean the total real debt including the unfunded liabilities.

I know Goldman Sachs is not a ratings agency. They are in bed with the US government. They are the US government. I was just making a point about the general atmosphere in 2007.

catbear · 27-06-2013 6:46am

As a student of history you'll also know gold hording was outlawed as an emergency measure in the 30s, another potential risk for goldbugs to consider.

You'll also know that when gold was linked to paper it was fractional and there was only faith in government that the reserve was as it stated, no difference in our faith that our fiat currencies are sufficiently regulated.

I actually think the best gold related investment you could make would be in a metal detector, a gps, a shovel, a 4x4 and head for the big bite east of esperence. It could turn out to be a profitable adventure.

mise_me_fein3 · 27-06-2013 7:16am

catbear wrote: »

As a student of history you'll also know gold hording was outlawed as an emergency measure in the 30s, another potential risk for goldbugs to consider.

You'll also know that when gold was linked to paper it was fractional and there was only faith in government that the reserve was as it stated, no difference in our faith that our fiat currencies are sufficiently regulated.

I actually think the best gold related investment you could make would be in a metal detector, a gps, a shovel, a 4x4 and head for the big bite east of esperence. It could turn out to be a profitable adventure.

Hmmm? Emergency measure or just stealing gold from citizens? That was just in the US. Do you think that measure will work worldwide now?

I’m not saying gold is the be all and end all. I’m merely pointing out that this system is looking shaky and potentially could fall in the next few years.
I don’t really see what point you are making. Would you drive without insurance just to save the money because you probably wouldn’t crash your car?

catbear · 27-06-2013 7:35am

Outside of the US Metal based currencies have fallen apart too, the latin monetary union fell apart over a century ago when Greece and the Vatican states debased their coinage, effectively destroying trust with other members of the league.

Money is any material that's interchangable with everyother material so it's not always about metals.

My interest in gold is as an indecator of the aus$ as australia is a major global supplier, a drop in gold can have a bearing on the exchange rate. At some stage the non mining australian economy will influence the rate but until then gold acts as a handy indicator of mining economy contration.

For the moment a strong dollar is good as i'm buying euros, at some point if it continues to weaken i'll stop and if i'm still in in australia then i'll look at inflation indexed stocks.

Bungarra · 27-06-2013 1:00pm

Yes... Everything written about gold is generally biased in one way or another. I wouldn't trust anything Goldman Sachs says. They have an agenda there. Nor would I trust anyone writing about how high gold might go.
It's all too liable to manipulation. I just know I want some of my money in metals as a hedge against America dying and dragging everyone else down with it.
I bought gold @1700 and I bought more recently at the lower prices. It makes no difference really because I don't plan on doing anything with it for a few years. Also, buying metals is a good way of saving (for me) because it stops me spending on rubbish.
Catbear, you're buying euros now? Do you think the $aud is going to drop much further? I was intending on transferring a lump of money recently (when it was 0.80eur/$1aud) but never got round to it. Gave up on the idea now.

catbear · 27-06-2013 2:59pm

Bungarra wrote: »

Catbear, you're buying euros now? Do you think the $aud is going to drop much further? I was intending on transferring a lump of money recently (when it was 0.80eur/$1aud) but never got round to it. Gave up on the idea now.

66c is where I stop buying unless I'm cashing out of Australia altogether which is a possibility as it was mining boom money that brought us here in the first place.
The Goldman forecast like most others project forward on present information, things could happen in the next week that could change everything. I just keep an eye on it and send money over consistently. I can't justify spending it here as a weekend in Margaret River travel lodge costs the same as two weeks in a comfortable Thai hotel!
Time is a precious commodity too.

catbear · 15-07-2013 4:31am

The latest drop in the Aus$ seems to have more to do with the China slowdown as it has dropped against both the USD and the Euro.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23310975

mise_me_fein3 · 25-07-2013 4:06am

http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

From one of the people I listen to a lot.

Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.

catbear · 25-07-2013 7:17am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

From one of the people I listen to a lot.

Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.

Well at least if it all crashes you'll have metal to chew on.

res ipsa · 25-07-2013 9:19am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

From one of the people I listen to a lot.

Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.

Well Cassandra, even stopped clocks tells the right time twice a day. Some economists have correctly predicted 8 of the last 2 recessions.
I'll be giving gold & its miners a wide berth.
Deflation is more of a risk than inflation IMO.

On topic AUD/EUR down to 68. Will we see under 60 soon?

Sundy · 25-07-2013 12:31pm

I've been in the gold fields all week showcasing a new product to mine engineers.

Problem is they have no money and are struggling for investment or capital. Mines are closing, visited two that shut down just this week. When that starts happening its a good sign that gold price isn't going to increase anytime soon.

jank · 25-07-2013 1:43pm

I see that this thread has gone off track a little. Anyone who says they are certain about anything is a fool. Nobody knows whats going to happen in the future but one can diversify. Putting everything in gold is foolish and irresponsible in my opinion.

catbear · 26-07-2013 4:00am

It seems to be strengthening again, heading back towards 70c/$. I got the euro at 72c a few weeks ago on an overnight spike, hopefully we might get another bounce soon.

BTW for those who don't think governments won't intervene again in gold trading, from india....

If any importer of gold fails to export 20% of the gold from the arrived consignment, he would be barred from importing any more gold.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-07-22/news/40727808_1_gold-imports-rupee-us-dollar
So on top of fluctuating price you also have to contend with government interference. I won't be surprised if China starts imposing severe restrictions on gold to force cash into the economy.

As for the shuttering of mines, at the current price WA can't compete with Ghana in supplying China with gold.

mise_me_fein3 · 26-07-2013 7:57am

Of course some governments intervene. Indians are crazy about gold. They know inflation is coming...Don't fully understand why the government there is getting involed but it's the other way around in China:

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1289838/column-china-urges-citizens-to-buy-gold-and-silver
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/chinese-gold-demand-could-hit-1000-tonnes-this-year-gc/articleshow/21340938.cms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl26KHz_y2E

China does not export any of its gold...not sure about its silver.

You may not value gold or silver, I don't really care too much for it...but its a must in the next 10 years.

China has overtaken India as the largest importer of gold recently. Historically gold was what banks used to back a currency in the past.

Gold is money...the paper was a receipt to claim the gold.

No point in guessing what governments are going to do next.

Anyone that bought gold in 2002 would have made over 500% on it.

Flipping from AUD to Eur might make you a little...good luck to you if you do well on it

catbear · 26-07-2013 11:25am

mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

Gold is money...the paper was a receipt to claim the gold.

Flipping from AUD to Eur might make you a little...good luck to you if you do well on it

Who' saying it isn't money? Money is any material that's interchangable for every other material. This thread is about keeping an eye on the best time to change currencies for people who aren't into speculating in commodities, there are plenty of sites that cater for gold speculating.

Edit to add. So how much has gold gained in the last year?

jank · 26-07-2013 3:18pm

I would have thought gold bugs would have learnt their lesson over the past 12 months. Tell me china and India, how much gold are they importing and how much is their GDP worth? Gold will be a tiny fraction of that. Gold has no use what so ever apart from a store of value. It has no industrial use and pays no interest or dividend. If you are concerned about inflation invest in usable commodities like farmland, sugar, coffee, energy, materials, defensive retail, basic materials, high moat brands. Any of these with reason would be better than gold in my opinion. If you want to invest in gold make it at most 10% of your outlay. Going all in will leave you burnt like a sausage on Australia day.

Shy Ted · 26-07-2013 5:35pm

jank wrote: »

It has no industrial use and pays no interest or dividend.

Is gold not used in electronics, computers and satellites?

jank · 27-07-2013 3:38am

attachment.php?attachmentid=830877&stc=1&d=1321269176

91% of gold is used as some sort of store of wealth.
There are some small uses of gold for electronics as you mention but its very small and no where near Silver or Platinum for example.

The point is the metal itself is only expensive because people hoard it and want it as personal hedge not because its used as in industry. Other metals are expensive as there is high demand for its industrial use to make products.

catbear · 27-07-2013 4:28am

Copper is the best gauge of industrial activity.

Beyond its traditional roles Gold seems to act as a pretty good gauge of fear judging by how little logic and reason is used by gold bugs.
Or you could be just trying to impress the ladies!

digiman · 30-07-2013 10:17am

Looks to be in freefall today, down 1.5% today.

Slidey · 30-07-2013 3:53pm

digiman wrote: »

Looks to be in freefall today, down 1.5% today.

Thankfully I sent a few quid home yday using currencyfair

colman1212 · 30-07-2013 11:57pm

This currency stuff is depressing me! I've saved a fair few dollars in Australia and just watching it go through the floor now. Was planning on moving home next year.

Aussie dollar falling

Comments