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Aussie dollar falling

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Comments

  • #402
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Yes, I think .75 would be the mark people would be waiting for if they have time to wait. It may be another 6-12 months. Of course it also depends how much the expected QE has the market priced in. Good news for stocks though.


  • #403
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    *cough* :)
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88068114&postcount=272


  • #404
    aido79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭aido79


    I think someone should change the title of this thread..


  • #405
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    aido79 wrote: »
    I think someone should change the title of this thread..
    Compared to a couple of years ago it's still a lot lower.
    Then again ore was selling above $140 whereas now it's dropped below $90.
    While ECB may print the A$ may alternatively be weakened by reduced Chinese demand.
    It's often forgotten how exposed and dependent australia has become to Chinese demand yet that's exactly what has made it a hard currency recently. Would it have rebounded from its 08 nadir as easily without China?

    graph-0613-1-03.gif

    I'm hopeful it will go higher as I'll be cashing out soon but won't be surprised if there's a general Australia selloff soon. The four big banks economists coming out together to say there's no housing bubble has put us past the official denial stage.


  • #406
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    It's not about the Australian dollar...its about the Euro's weakness..IF anyone's looks at my posts I have been pretty on the mark over the past 6 months on this thread...and yes, we should change the title.


  • #407
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    sin_city wrote: »
    It's not about the Australian dollar...its about the Euro's weakness..IF anyone's looks at my posts I have been pretty on the mark over the past 6 months on this thread...and yes, we should change the title.
    Fair enough but do you see it regain the highs of two years ago?


  • #408
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    I don't know, it pretty hard to say 70 cents was a barrier that it could not break for a while.

    Everything depends on Europe and Europe in general is a mess.

    They'll print money while here the Liberals are cutting back and being responsible.


  • #409
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    The Liberals just might be able to keep a lid on it if they get public expenditure under control and manage to address the deficits.
    As for the property bubble, it is a very real situation. People are being absolutely bonkers about property values. Luckily enough the worm is turning relatively slowly. The bite is obvious in places like Mackay, that had a huge surge, and now the prices have stabilised, but nothing is selling. Plenty of speculative places up for sale, but its dead in the ar$e now the construction phase of Caval Ridge is done.
    Gladstone will be the next to go wallop once the LNG construction phases start to wind down.
    The lucky thing is that it is demand based, but anyone that can't offset 12 months of mortage payments from the get go is hopping straight into murky waters IMO.
    I've got a first home saver running, but it could end up being dumped into Super yet, unless prices slip, or don't rise for 12 months.

    As for State Capital city prices, Absolute madness. 550k for 2 bed apartments 6k from CBD in BNE. nuts.
    I'd rather pay half that and commute, less of a fall even if it does go sideways.

    The currency could be the saving grace, as they have total control of interest and supply.


  • #410
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    AngryHippie wrote: »
    The currency could be the saving grace, as they have total control of interest and supply.


    Who?


  • #411
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    RBA


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  • #412
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    As I said, Draghi would cut rates...he did and now the dollar is rising towards 72 cents


  • #413
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes!

    72.26 and climbing :D


  • #414
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Touching about 72.5 now..

    To put the latest moves into perspective, every $10,000 you would have converted from AUD to EUR would have netted you about an extra 700 euro, compared to the XE rate now and that 1st of Jan.

    If people want to hold this rate but may not be leaving OZ for another 12 months then I would suggest a forward contract i.e lock in the rate today to use later on (minus a margin of course!)

    Any good money transfer companies will give you this option.


  • #415
    baldshin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭baldshin


    I'm looking to move some money from Euro to $, unfortunately! Can anyone give me some advice on whether to cut my losses and transfer now, or do you think the current trend will reverse or stop anytime soon?


  • #416
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    baldshin wrote: »
    I'm looking to move some money from Euro to $, unfortunately! Can anyone give me some advice on whether to cut my losses and transfer now, or do you think the current trend will reverse or stop anytime soon?

    Just a thought

    euro+toilet+paper.jpg


  • #417
    Carlosd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 50 ✭✭Carlosd


    Doubt you'll get a forward unless the amount you book is significant and you pay a deposit of approx 10%


  • #418
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Yea, deposit of 10% is standard and yes, it would be a 5 figure sum. Handy for those thinking of heading back and bringing back their savings with them.


  • #419
    the flananator
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Has dropped down a point...any indication as to why this is?


  • #420
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Profit taking? Sell the rumor buy the news?


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  • #421
    commited
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    Tanking pretty badly :/


  • #422
    Timistry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭Timistry


    Lost 2 cents in as many days...


  • #423
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    All gets back to facts despite what bull they do to try to talk the Aussie dollar down and other currencies up.

    They say there is "talk" of a rate rise in the US....bull...that was driving the AUD down.

    Anyway, jobs report today shows the Australian economy added 121,000 jobs in August and the dollar is going up again.

    Anyway, it's going up from 70 cents to 71 and maybe 72....I think this is a good range to consolidate....If it rockets up too fast it can rocket back down just as fast.


  • #424
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    sin_city wrote: »
    Anyway, jobs report today shows the Australian economy added 121,000 jobs in August and the dollar is going up again.
    For how long? Those added jobs didn't stop unemployment increasing.


  • #425
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    catbear wrote: »
    For how long? Those added jobs didn't stop unemployment increasing.

    Yes they did...People we expecting 15,000 new jobs not the huge 121,000 number.

    The unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, from 6.4%.

    Next.


  • #426
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    sin_city wrote: »
    Yes they did...People we expecting 15,000 new jobs not the huge 121,000 number.

    The unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, from 6.4%.

    Next.
    I'm skeptical of those figures as the ABS changed their survey group. Just to reiterate the ABS defines employed as
    worked for one hour or more for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, in a job or business or on a farm (comprising employees, employers and own account workers)
    I'll be interested to see if the next Roy Morgon survey matches the ABS.


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  • #427
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    Do you prefer the US's measure of unemployment?

    If we are comparing the Australian economy to other western economies I think the Australian one is far better.

    Anyway, the Aussie dollar is hovering about 71 cents....I think most people would have taken that 6 months ago.

    IF you think Europe's economy is about to boom you would maybe back the Euro getting stronger versus the AUD...I don't think this will happen.


  • #428
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    catbear wrote: »
    I'm skeptical of those figures as the ABS changed their survey group. Just to reiterate the ABS defines employed as

    What's changed? The link you provided was last updated 30 Nov 2006, where does it say that the unemployment yard stick has changed recently?


  • #429
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    What's changed? The link you provided was last updated 30 Nov 2006, where does it say that the unemployment yard stick has changed recently?

    They change their survey group regularly, i'll get a link to the most recent survey when i'm near a computer again.

    Edit to add: Well it's all over the media today, Aus dollar bounce wiped out as long term trend in unemployment unaffected. Survey noted more part time jobs but overall hours worked unchanged.


  • #430
    colman1212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭colman1212


    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-needs-to-address-australias-property-bubble-ubs-20140916-10hex2.html

    Thought this was interesting, they want to see the AUD$ hit below US$.85


  • #431
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    colman1212 wrote: »
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-needs-to-address-australias-property-bubble-ubs-20140916-10hex2.html

    Thought this was interesting, they want to see the AUD$ hit below US$.85


    This is an example of what has changed. People are again trying to talk the Aussie dollar down and for the moment it is working.

    A few things:

    For some reason people are saying the US interest rates will be increased soon. Ok, so they are 0% at the moment which means servicing the debt overall is on average at 6.23 of federal outlays or nearly $223 billion USD:

    debt_interest2.png

    Everyone must know that the US economy is a mess and if you think the figures are being massaged here Australia then you'll be blown away by the Americans.

    So, if the interest rates rise in the US a tiny bit...what do you think that will mean for interest costs on the nearly $18 trillion USD debt.

    They can't raise interest rates and if they did they'd be in severe recession, a lot worse than before.

    The US dollar will become less and less relevant and eventually the US won't be able to finance it's deficit spending at the expense of the rest of the world via their reserve currency status.

    Argentina and China are the latest countries to agree to bypass the dollar.

    So, while they are blabbering on about US increases in interest rates in the press they will never state the consequences of this happening.

    Either way, Australia is in a far better position than Europe and the US so while these attacks on the strength of the dollar do have an effect on the strength of the AUD (it has been pummeled down so fast) personally I think in the long term it will get back to where it was versus both USD and EUR in the long term.


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  • #432
    No Username Yet
    Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭No Username Yet


    isn't it at an unusual high though, €1 was equivalent to 2 Aussie bucks when I was there


  • #433
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    No Username Yet wrote: »
    isn't it at an unusual high though, €1 was equivalent to 2 Aussie bucks when I was there
    That was a period of extreme volatility that was reversed by a combination of money printing in the US and stimulus spending by China.

    The A$ will also see its strength sapped by easier ways to directly invest into China.


  • #434
    statina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 330 ✭✭statina


    sin_city wrote: »
    This is an example of what has changed. People are again trying to talk the Aussie dollar down and for the moment it is working.

    A few things:

    For some reason people are saying the US interest rates will be increased soon. Ok, so they are 0% at the moment which means servicing the debt overall is on average at 6.23 of federal outlays or nearly $223 billion USD:

    debt_interest2.png

    Everyone must know that the US economy is a mess and if you think the figures are being massaged here Australia then you'll be blown away by the Americans.

    So, if the interest rates rise in the US a tiny bit...what do you think that will mean for interest costs on the nearly $18 trillion USD debt.

    They can't raise interest rates and if they did they'd be in severe recession, a lot worse than before.

    The US dollar will become less and less relevant and eventually the US won't be able to finance it's deficit spending at the expense of the rest of the world via their reserve currency status.

    Argentina and China are the latest countries to agree to bypass the dollar.

    So, while they are blabbering on about US increases in interest rates in the press they will never state the consequences of this happening.

    Either way, Australia is in a far better position than Europe and the US so while these attacks on the strength of the dollar do have an effect on the strength of the AUD (it has been pummeled down so fast) personally I think in the long term it will get back to where it was versus both USD and EUR in the long term.

    Do you think it will stay at 69 for a while or can you see it rising to 70/ 71 in the near future? Annoyed I didn't transfer more when it was 71!


  • #435
    No Username Yet
    Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭No Username Yet


    catbear wrote: »
    That was a period of extreme volatility that was reversed by a combination of money printing in the US and stimulus spending by China.

    The A$ will also see its strength sapped by easier ways to directly invest into China.

    None the less it is unusually high (historically) anyway, yes world markets (China) has impacted all currency values


  • #436
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No Username Yet wrote: »
    None the less it is unusually high (historically) anyway, yes world markets (China) has impacted all currency values

    When people go on about 'historical' values they are talking last century - literally. It's as if you are supposed to believe nothing fundamental has changed in Australia over the last 20 years or in the external world, like population growth, changes in world demand and the tapping of new commodities like LNG.

    AGDP_zps336a69fb.png

    See, nothing's changed, let's put the AU$ back at US 0.73 where it belongs.


  • #437
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    cnocbui wrote: »

    See, nothing's changed, let's put the AU$ back at US 0.73 where it belongs.
    Maybe it regain it's old nickname, the Pacific Peso!


  • #438
    Alanhooly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭Alanhooly


    I know nobody here is a fortune teller but what would the general concensus be, transfer money back now or give it 2 months longer?

    Is it likely to consolidate at 69/70c?


  • #439
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Now long is a piece of string? Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen but the can give you advise to mitigate risk. Maybe do half now and a half in two months. I did mention last week when the AUDEUR was over .72cents that people would be wise to get a forward contract.


  • #440
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Have a look at an exchange rate graph for the past 6 months and take a guess?

    There 'seems' to be a steady upward trend to my eyes - not withstanding the inexplicable recent plunge of nearly 3 cents in just a week.

    Hang on, I'll just do a quick scientific experiment ... heads ... it might go up.

    Then again...


  • #441
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    cnocbui wrote: »

    Hang on, I'll just do a quick scientific experiment ... heads ... it might go up.

    Then again...
    Reminds me of......


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  • #442
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Lol - that is spot on.

    You read some news and one article says iron ore prices have just jumped, another says the RBA model wants the dollar to be worth less than it is to achieve their desired outcomes so a rate cut is possible, but not at the moment, other economists nod their heads in wise agreement that true value is 0.85 but caution they expect to see 90-91 by Dec then another article pretty much says the RBA is concerned at a housing market bubble in Oz so they can't cut rates and may have to raise them.

    And these opposing predictions/views on what the RBA can/will/might do are in the same paper within 24hrs of each other.


  • #443
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    statina wrote: »
    Do you think it will stay at 69 for a while or can you see it rising to 70/ 71 in the near future? Annoyed I didn't transfer more when it was 71!

    Its back at 70 today....Anyone else notice the extreme amount of volatility?

    Let's hope it just sticks around 70 for a while


  • #444
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    The next two weeks could be interesting. Continued decline in demand for Iron ore from China may give us a drop in the Aus$. I'm glad I got a chunk away at .72 but on the up side if you're buying Aus$ it may be worth holding off. Watch for the Iron ore price.


  • #445
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    The slowdown in China and a tighter federal budget will pull Australia's growth down to as low as 2 per cent next year, prompting interest rate cuts and a 20 per cent slump in the value of the Australian dollar, a prestigious global forecaster says.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini8217s-firm-warns-of-20-australian-dollar-slump-20140922-10kc2e.html#ixzz3E6mMaJJF

    Meanwhile Iron Ore dropped below $80 and this years gains on the ASX are gone.


  • #446
    sin_city
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    Aussie dollar back above 70 cents


  • #447
    Alanhooly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭Alanhooly


    Starting to drop a bit now. Just when I hoped to transfer it home. It's gone from 0.6972 to 0.6836 in 24 hours on currencyfair.


  • #448
    niva*sis
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭niva*sis


    it was 70 on Monday...


  • #449
    braddun
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,221 ✭✭✭braddun


    the usa dollar is going up so buy that rather than euros


  • #450
    Alanhooly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭Alanhooly


    Does anyone know or can anyone predict if this downward trend will continue?

    Not sure whether to cut my losses and transfer now or wait and see if it creeps back up


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  • #451
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,690 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Alanhooly wrote: »
    Does anyone know or can anyone predict if this downward trend will continue?
    No. Nobody knows.

    If they did they wouldn't be faffing around on discussion boards like this. They would be fully occupied managing the billions of dollars of assets that they would have acquired through their ability to predict future exchange rate movements.
    Alanhooly wrote: »
    Not sure whether to cut my losses and transfer now or wait and see if it creeps back up
    Depends. Are your current liabilities measured in Euros? Do you expect your future expenditure to be incurred in Euros?

    If the answer to these questions is "yes" then the choice facing you is basically this:

    A. I want to gamble on the toss of a coin. I'll hold assets in AUD and take my chances on the prevailing exchange rate when I switch to EUR to meet my liabilities/incur my expenditures. Whether the exchange rate goes up or down in the future - and, from here, each outcome is equally likely - I'll be better off, because I'll have had the satisfaction of making a wager than I want to make.

    B. I don't want to gamble. I'll match my assets to my present and future liabilities by converting AUD to EUR now. Whether the exchange rate goes up or down in the future - and, from here, each outcome is equally likely - I'll be better off, because I'll have avoided a risk which I don't wish to be exposed to.

    In other words, the question you should be asking yourself is not whether the exchange rate will go up or down in the future. That's a mug's game. The meaningful question is whether you wish to take a risk from which you are equally likely to gain or lose, or to avoid the risk and any possible gain or loss. It's your attitude to risk that needs to be identified, not the future movements of the AUD/EUR exchange rate. And of course the only person competent to determine your attitude to risk is you.


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