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Who is your 1st pick this year in Fantasy Football?

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  • 11-04-2014 4:48pm
    #1
    jme2010
    Registered Users Posts: 974 ✭✭✭


    Last year was my first fantasy football experience and had 2nd pick.

    1st overall taken was Arian Foster, I picked Adrian Peterson.

    Is AP still a first pick this year? Who would you take 1st overall in 2014.

    I don't think I am going to draft a QB, kicker or defense until extremely late. They all can be picked up of the wavier wire.

    Thoughts?


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    #2
    jester1980
    Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭jester1980


    Charles


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    #3
    HigginsJ
    Registered Users Posts: 7,317 ✭✭✭HigginsJ


    I picked Trent Richardson 1st overall last year. When fantasy football time rolls around ignore every bit of advice I offer!!


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    #4
    Guffy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,039 ✭✭✭Guffy


    Got Charles 5th last year in one draft. Will b taking him first this time if I get a chance


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    #5
    Dohnny Jepp
    Registered Users Posts: 1,444 ✭✭✭Dohnny Jepp


    Normally I'd say go running back first, which would be AP, Charles or Lynch, Shady or whoever but, if I get the first overall pick this year I'd be tempted with Peyton Manning, the points he put up last year were crazy. Without looking back I think he had like 60 or 70 points more than the next best qb.


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    #6
    JaMarcusHustle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭JaMarcusHustle


    Wouldn't be keen on picking Manning first.

    In 2013, if you're looking at a 16 team league and basing it on average draft position, picking Manning at 1 would mean you had to wait 30 picks until your next selection. You would have chosen one of Andre Ellington, C.J. Spiller, Ben Tate, Ray Rice, Frank Gore or Ryan Matthews who were considered - at the time - the best available. Let's say you had a good eye for who would do best and you had picked Ryan Matthews who did the best out of all of them.

    That means that, on average, your QB1-RB2 combo of Manning-Matthews would have netted you an average weekly haul of 26.22 (Manning) + 11.26 (Matthews) = 37.48 going by the Boards scoring system.

    Using the same logic for Charles, if you picked him 1st and waited 30 picks for the next best QB to be available, you would likely have ended up with either Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan or Cam Newton. Giving you the best available (like we did with Ryan Matthews above), you would have picked Cam Newton.

    So in that situation, your QB1-RB1 combo would have gotten you 19.37 (Newton) + 20.53 (Charles) = 39.90.

    Going by that, a Charles + Next Best QB combo would be more fruitful than a Manning + Next Best RB combo.


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    #7
    Chucky the tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭Chucky the tree


    I went in with drafting two WR's at the end of the 1st and start of the second last year, ignored WR. Disaster of a decision. A good running back is crucial.


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    #8
    padraig_f
    Registered Users Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭padraig_f


    jme2010 wrote: »
    Last year was my first fantasy football experience and had 2nd pick.

    1st overall taken was Arian Foster, I picked Adrian Peterson.

    Is AP still a first pick this year? Who would you take 1st overall in 2014.

    I don't think I am going to draft a QB, kicker or defense until extremely late. They all can be picked up of the wavier wire.

    Thoughts?

    Probably, I did notice this article recently though:
    Inside Slant: Running back cliff after age 27

    and Peterson is now 29.

    Can never seem to get the running back pick right, this year I had Doug Martin and CJ Spiller in my two main leagues, both disasters.


    Plan this year is to stick to RBs from teams I expect to be good teams (Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Matt Forte etc. (Eddie Lacey could be ****ing good as well, but I probably won't pick him)). Too much variance on the losing teams, they get behind, they stop giving him the ball. Or in the case of Martin last year, his QB can't get him anywhere near the end-zone.

    First choice this year, might be tempted to go with LeSean McCoy, the Eagles were a playoff team last year and should improve in the 2nd year under Chip Kelly. McCoy is only 25 and was leading rusher last year.


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    #9
    johnmcdnl
    Registered Users Posts: 3,739 ✭✭✭johnmcdnl


    Blair Walsh - he's had a brilliant season kicking breaking all the records. Reckon he can continue that streak this year so wouldn't have anyone else.

    Locked in #1 pick for me as long as no one jumps the gun on me.


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    #10
    TheFIFAking
    Registered Users Posts: 10 ✭TheFIFAking


    I would wait to see who the starter is with the Vikings. I know this might sound counter-intuitive, but if it is Bridgewater, I would select Peterson no 1. They would likely take the pressure off the rookie and lean on Peterson. If Cassell or Ponder starts, I think they would probably go for a more balanced offence. And then if Bridgewater does start playing well, it will give more opportunity for Peterson to score.

    If Cassell starts, I would strongly consider McCoy.


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    #11
    Johnny_Fontane
    Registered Users Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭Johnny_Fontane


    I only do what footballguys tell me to.


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    #12
    nasty_crash
    Registered Users Posts: 950 ✭✭✭nasty_crash


    i think AP - just because its ap - there is very little to choose between him and charles and mccoy - as was said before if bridgewater starts - which is a strong chance - AP will get a lot of ball and we know what he can do - Charles will have alex smith giving him the ball at every opportunity so that will work the same - i think there will be some transition with vick gone from the eagles for mccoy - that being said if you went #1 on either of these three i would would be happy!!


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    #13
    Guffy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,039 ✭✭✭Guffy


    nasty_crash wrote: »
    i think AP - just because its ap - there is very little to choose between him and charles and mccoy - as was said before if bridgewater starts - which is a strong chance - AP will get a lot of ball and we know what he can do - Charles will have alex smith giving him the ball at every opportunity so that will work the same - i think there will be some transition with vick gone from the eagles for mccoy - that being said if you went #1 on either of these three i would would be happy!!

    I don't know about the transition. I mean Foles started most of last season didn't he? Thought that would have sorted any transition period out wouldn't it?


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    #14
    nasty_crash
    Registered Users Posts: 950 ✭✭✭nasty_crash


    true - im not foles biggest fan tho! but yeah def good point - i think the top 3 picked will be them followed closely by lynch and lacey!


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    #15
    Guffy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,039 ✭✭✭Guffy


    nasty_crash wrote: »
    true - im not foles biggest fan tho! but yeah def good point - i think the top 3 picked will be them followed closely by lynch and lacey!

    Ya ur right its much of a muchness between the 3.. I think Charles has dropped to 3rd in my estimation though. I'd prob go for McCoy. I agree with you some what on Foles though. Can't see him performing as well next season.


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    #16
    nasty_crash
    Registered Users Posts: 950 ✭✭✭nasty_crash


    http://walterfootball.com/fantasy2014firstroundbusthistory.php

    there is a really good article on busts in the first round over the last few years - 4 busts out of 8 years where the leading rb in the previous season done nothing! makes for good reading and makes you consider your strategy - makes sense why megatron and graham do so well up there!


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    #17
    LupeBrown91
    Registered Users Posts: 7 ✭LupeBrown91


    Shady McCoy. The QB situation in Philly will eventually give more downs to the running game.

    1. Shady
    2. Peyton
    3. AP


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    #18
    risenbass
    Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭risenbass


    nasty_crash wrote: »
    true - im not foles biggest fan tho! but yeah def good point - i think the top 3 picked will be them followed closely by lynch and lacey!

    I have 5th pick in my 12-man league. It's looking like I'll be left with Lacey. I'm thinking about just picking up Megatron to be honest


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    #19
    HigginsJ
    Registered Users Posts: 7,317 ✭✭✭HigginsJ


    If I had the 1st pick this year I would go with McCoy as he is probably the safest bet.

    Really prefer to pick between 8-12 position as you can get A-Rod or Brees and top class WR like Green or Marshall to pair with them


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    #20
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Lacey only cos he is guaranteed points for the next few years or Rodgers. I'll take either if they fall to me in keeper leagues


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    #21
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Couldn't have McCoy on my mind with Sproles there also. Hardly as if he's been a fantasy monster in the past either. Peterson's a no brainer imo, with Charles being the only other entering the discussion


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    #22
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,518 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think with a decent QB in Bridgewater (I seriously think he's going to prove a shed load of people wrong and show them he should have went #1) then Peterson is going to have a career year.


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    #23
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,616 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I think with a decent QB in Bridgewater (I seriously think he's going to prove a shed load of people wrong and show them he should have went #1) then Peterson is going to have a career year.
    A career year???

    You realise the man ran for 2097 years in one season?


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