Bet on McCain for Presidency

Dodge · 15-10-2008 10:20am

Polls are only ever indicators. Even in the US, the sample is tiny. I won't be betting in this market as there simply is too many factors that can't be measured. If a "great bet" pops up I may change my mind

Threads ike this make me think I'm right to stay away

todolist · 15-10-2008 5:49pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

wtf, you said in your second post in the thread that you were going to 'lump on' at 10/3 (:pac:) having previously told us how great 11/4 was.
2 days later you were telling us how good a bet it was at 4/1.

And now you try to tell us that you didn't actually back him.

I think you are an idiot.

I did say that.I am an idiot.I was on the brink of backing him but all the polls and all the informed opinion say he's run an awful campaign.One of the worst since Walter mondale.Only saving grace for Mondale is the fact he lost to the Great legend,Ronald Reagan.

okidoki987 · 16-10-2008 10:15am

PP's are paying out on Obama to be next US President :eek:

Bluetonic · 16-10-2008 10:30am

okidoki987 wrote: »

PP's are paying out on Obama to be next US President :eek:

Easy marketing ploy once again...

Dodge · 16-10-2008 11:04am

todolist wrote: »

I did say that.I am an idiot.I was on the brink of backing him but all the polls and all the informed opinion say he's run an awful campaign.One of the worst since Walter mondale.Only saving grace for Mondale is the fact he lost to the Great legend,Ronald Reagan.

Ah so this wasn't a betting thing at all. you're just telling us who you want to win...

Duck Soup · 16-10-2008 2:34pm

The more interesting bets are down ticket, on the senatorial races. In many of these, you don't have the (unknowable) racial variable since most of the contests are between white candidates.

Two are particularly interesting to me. First, there's the North Carolina senatorial race, with Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole (Bob Dole's wife) up against Democrat Kay Hagan. At the start of the campaign season Dole was seen as a shoo-in. But the Republican brand is so devalued and the start of Dole's campaign so lacklustre, Hagan has managed to claw back a huge initial poll deficit to a decent lead. Paddy Power has Dole at 6-4 and Hagan at 1-2.

The other senate race that's fun to watch is in Minnesota, with Democratic challenger Al Franken (comedian, chat show staple and author of 'Rush Limbaugh Is A Big Fat Idiot') against sitting Republican Norm Coleman. Franken had a tough job for a long time to get people, well, to take him seriously. Coleman was also able to dig out some of Franken's more off-colour statements from his previous job to keep Franken on the defensive. The tide appears to be turning in that race, but it's still very tight. Some polls have Franken 3 points ahead, so maybe Coleman is the good value with Paddy Power putting Franken at 1-10 at Coleman at 5 - 1.

Here's Paddy Power's odds on the individual state senatorial races:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=31&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=5142&ev_oc_grp_ids=84907&bir_index=

..and here's Real Clear Politics latest polls from each race:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/senate.html

todolist · 16-10-2008 2:41pm

Dodge wrote: »

Ah so this wasn't a betting thing at all. you're just telling us who you want to win...

It was a betting thing.I thought the odds on McCain were great and yes I do want him to win.Looks like Obama has it.Another Jimmy Carter in the making.:(

ArmaniJeanss · 21-10-2008 10:08am

Back from a weekend in New York (just spotted my 'yellow card' from my previous post :pac:) and talking to a few people about the election and observing a few things.

I know that New York is 'different' so a lot of this may not be relevant.

Pro Obama.
Far more people walking around with Vote Obama badges and t-shirts, I estimated they outnumber JMC badges by about 5 to 1.
Far more likely to hear a random conversation about Obama in a bar, he is definitely the focus of the election, the exciting candidate. McCain has his supporters but he doesn't inspires them in the slightest.
I got the sense that the European media overplay the race element of the election, interracial couples of all ages from all states stroll around, young people of all ethnic types hang together.

Pro McCain.
Palin is generally still seen as a positive for his campaign, despite what may appear to us to be her obvious shortcomings. Biden on the other hand hardly gets a mention.
The JoeThePlumber stuff, corny as it is, is going down a treat.
A (black) dude in Times Square who holds a cardboard cutout of Obama and charges a $1 for a photo reckons he would be making far more money if he had a JMC cardboard cutout. He believes that 90% of the white 'undecided' will vote for JMC having convinced themselves that its for policy reasons but it'll really be racist reasons.

I'm no longer as convinced as I was that BHO is a shoo-in.

kraggy · 02-11-2008 7:46pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Back from a weekend in New York (just spotted my 'yellow card' from my previous post :pac:) and talking to a few people about the election and observing a few things.

I know that New York is 'different' so a lot of this may not be relevant.

Pro Obama.
Far more people walking around with Vote Obama badges and t-shirts, I estimated they outnumber JMC badges by about 5 to 1.
Far more likely to hear a random conversation about Obama in a bar, he is definitely the focus of the election, the exciting candidate. McCain has his supporters but he doesn't inspires them in the slightest.
I got the sense that the European media overplay the race element of the election, interracial couples of all ages from all states stroll around, young people of all ethnic types hang together.

Pro McCain.
Palin is generally still seen as a positive for his campaign, despite what may appear to us to be her obvious shortcomings. Biden on the other hand hardly gets a mention.
The JoeThePlumber stuff, corny as it is, is going down a treat.
A (black) dude in Times Square who holds a cardboard cutout of Obama and charges a $1 for a photo reckons he would be making far more money if he had a JMC cardboard cutout. He believes that 90% of the white 'undecided' will vote for JMC having convinced themselves that its for policy reasons but it'll really be racist reasons.

I'm no longer as convinced as I was that BHO is a shoo-in.

New York City is a predominantly Democrat city. It has a Republican Mayor but traditionally is very Democrat.

Mellor · 03-11-2008 11:11am

Handicap is +/-160 now

christeb · 03-11-2008 12:48pm

I do think it'll be a lot closer than many think and that McCain +160 is good value

Bobeagleburger · 03-11-2008 6:55pm

Mc Cain is now 11/1 with betfair

dsmythy · 03-11-2008 7:19pm

I think going with McCain on the 160 handicap looks interesting. Just playing around with the electoral map on CNN even giving Obama Florida, which i think he will get, as well as Montana and Indiana, and if the leaning states remain leaning in the same way as is current and McCain can take Ohio, where he is marginally ahead in polling, that will still be enough to cover the handicap.

EDIT: On second thoughts if i think winning Ohio will determine the handicap result i may be better off just backing McCain at 7/2 to win Ohio.

Juan Pablo · 04-11-2008 12:28am

Democrats under 369.5 electoral votes is 4/9 on Bet 365

yahoo_moe · 04-11-2008 11:56am

rarnes1 wrote: »

Mc Cain is now 11/1 with betfair

Yeah I took a bit of that yesterday (though slightly later so I got 21/2) - think that was quite overpriced.

Available at 17.5 now (33/2) for anyone who's interested.

patmac · 04-11-2008 5:21pm

yahoo_moe wrote: »

Yeah I took a bit of that yesterday (though slightly later so I got 21/2) - think that was quite overpriced.

Available at 17.5 now (33/2) for anyone who's interested.

Value I got him at 5/1 anyone to buy my bet?

Mezcita · 04-11-2008 8:08pm

McCain out to 19.0 on Betfair.

barney85 · 05-11-2008 10:27am

can we still back Obama:D

yahoo_moe · 05-11-2008 3:59pm

Well technically he's only President-elect but the market seems to have closed...

However, Betfair already have the 2012 market open for the truly hardcore

christeb · 05-11-2008 4:03pm

Margin was greater than 160 votes.

How can someone who has only 5% less of the vote lose by twice as many electoral votes???? Damn electoral system!

Dodge · 05-11-2008 4:13pm

christeb wrote: »

Margin was greater than 160 votes.

How can someone who has only 5% less of the vote lose by twice as many electoral votes???? Damn electoral system!

Winner takes all is the way forward...

dsmythy · 05-11-2008 8:31pm

So much for my inkling on McCain taking Ohio. Should of known the odds were too good to be true. My last delve into political betting for a while methinks.

Mellor · 07-11-2008 4:01pm

christeb wrote: »

Margin was greater than 160 votes.

How can someone who has only 5% less of the vote lose by twice as many electoral votes???? Damn electoral system!

The popular vote is always close.
In relative terms, 5% is huge, even more so for a Dem.

Many past winners had <50% due to a small % going elsewhere, 3rd candidates etc

Anyway, ship the monies,
had the loot on Obama +handicap on betfair, 1.4
only ot paid today or last night

Bet on McCain for Presidency

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