BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

yard_king · 11-11-2012 6:07pm

tfjmor wrote: »

I have no knowledge of share trading and like so many, it seems, am interested in taking a punt on some BOI shares. I would like to invest €1000 for between 10 - 15 years. However, I understand BOI already have issued many millions of ordinary shares therefore any growth will be so diluted that individual shares will be of little value even in the longer term. Will there be share rationalisation down the road similar to the Eircom debacle and is there any truth in my understanding?

Also, Government bailed out BOI with many billions of Euro. Will BOI have to repay these billions to Govt. over many decades and if so and taking the former in to account it is difficult to see making any investment being prudent.

It would be of great interest if one would get a brief overview of the committments etc. BOI must meet in the coming years.

if i was you i would wait another while , the share has rested between 8. 5 and 10 . 3 cent for the past six months which is very stable for a penny stock , id wait to see whether it either dips below 8 or rises above 11 , either should tell how things are going , unless we get a deal on debt , the stock is certainly not going any higher anytime soon

ive made money on the stock this year but sold most of my holding two months ago , now own 2 k worth which i bought at 9 . 8 cent

tfjmor · 11-11-2012 7:08pm

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Without wanting to sound rude, I don't think you really understand how investing in shares works. All the publicly available info on BOI is already in the price. Before going near investing in bank shares (one of the most opaque of all businesses) I'd suggest you spend a couple of hours researching the basics of how shares work. http://www.fool.co.uk/ used to have a good introduction to share investments - perhaps that might be a good place to start.

You are not in the least bit rude and are most helpful.:o

Many Thanks
tfjmor

BrokenArrows · 11-11-2012 7:39pm

I already hold a bit of boi.

I intend on buying more but as the previous poster said the price has been moving between 8-10 and its unlikely this share is going to get out of that range anytime soon so take your time and see if the share price gradually drops closer to 8.

lucky john · 13-11-2012 3:16pm

Anyone who starts their post something like " I have not much experience of buying shares but are BoI not cheap and worth a punt..." would do well to go to page 1 of this thread (note the dates) and read from there. It might be educational...

bunny_colvin · 13-11-2012 3:44pm

lucky john wrote: »

Anyone who starts their post something like " I have not much experience of buying shares but are BoI not cheap and worth a punt..." would do well to go to page 1 of this thread (note the dates) and read from there. It might be educational...

agreed , i bought a hefty amount of france telecom shares in may of this year , was seduced by the 12% div yield and ultra low PE , i collected two chunky dividends but im down more than 30% on my original capital :mad:

cheap does not always mean value

paddy power might be cheap at the moment despite having risen by 40% in the past year

A New earth · 14-11-2012 9:18pm

[FONT=Default Sans Serif,Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Goodbody Stockbrokers morning comment 14/11/2012

Bank of Ireland; Progress on funding, but long road to normality

We have published a note this morning on BOI after yesterday’s IMS. Progress on a number of funding metrics and an improvement in the H2 margin are already reflected in our estimates and our forecast adjustments are minimal.

In H2, deposits are up €2bn (to €74bn), wholesale funding is €8bn lower (at €44bn) and monetary authority drawings fell €7bn to €21bn. The covered bond issue is a positive development (but will cost at the margin). BOI is making progress, but full normalisation is still some time away.

Core Tier 1 capital was 13.9% in October and we expect it to trough on an existing basis at 12-12.5%. However, Basel III represents a significant headwind for the Irish banks. Transition timelines alleviate some of the problems, but the Irish banks rank poorly on a fully loaded basis.

Our trough TNAV is unchanged at 15c. The elongated period to normalised returns (13%+ ROE forecasted in 2017) means we only see value closer to 8c. In addition, the 25% step up in par value of the government’s preference shares in early 2014 remains a risk for shareholders. We remain negative.
[/FONT]

caoty · 27-11-2012 4:19pm

I see 10.2/3 cents being the barrier to break for any significant gain in the short term.

ban_me_again · 28-11-2012 3:08pm

nice bump today , broke through the 10.3 cent barrier which might by symbolic , i own around 3 k worth of stocks ( bought @ 9.8 cent ) which i think is enough for a risky stock like BOI

BrokenArrows · 28-11-2012 6:03pm

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I already hold a bit of boi.

I intend on buying more but as the previous poster said the price has been moving between 8-10 and its unlikely this share is going to get out of that range anytime soon so take your time and see if the share price gradually drops closer to 8.

I think everytime i say anything to anyone about investments the market does the complete opposite. lol.

I should start going against my own advice and ill be rich.

ranger4 · 28-11-2012 10:29pm

SP broke through its 200DMA of 0.1030 very possitive, EU should be in position to help with deal with pox anglo promisary note and possibly lower int rate with Irish debt program, will be interesting to see how high sp can climb assuming US fiscal cliff fiasco sorted and with possible end of year santa rally.

Monty Burnz · 28-11-2012 10:33pm

Absolute carnage in the BTL side as predicted (not just affecting BOI, of course). Looks like further epic losses coming from the BTL loanbook.

caoty · 29-11-2012 11:31am

10.3--》12.6--》16

Monty Burnz · 29-11-2012 11:55am

caoty wrote: »

10.3--》12.6--》16

--》0 ?

caoty · 29-11-2012 12:28pm

"People who talk down their country should commit suicide.":D

Monty Burnz wrote: »

--》0 ?

jank · 29-11-2012 1:30pm

I have spent a few hours reading and skimming this entire thread......
WHAT.THE.****!

RATM · 29-11-2012 1:49pm

jank wrote: »

I have spent a few hours reading and skimming this entire thread......
WHAT.THE.****!

Yeah, likewise I ask myself the same questions. I've dipped in there from time to time to see how its going. I am always astounded by the amount of people who wander in to post here and think that because the SP is at a low 8 cents "it is cheap and worth a punt" with no notion at all that the price is a measure of monetary value vis a vis the amount of shares in issue and market sentiment into the future.

If people aren't going to educate themselves about how markets and investment work and how you go about valuing a company then they are destined to lose money, period.

Anyway I am just astounded that some are willing to invest (not trade) in BOI for "the long term", i.e. 10-15+ years. I've no doubt that they'll be in a better position in 10 years than they are today but along the way they are going to have share dilutions and will have to write off massive debts from BTLets and other imprudent lending. At best BOI might (and I mean might) add 20-30% to its value over the next decade. That is an optimistic outlook though.

There are far better shares out there that are much more stable than BOI and offer a lot better prospects for far less risk.

caoty · 29-11-2012 5:49pm

Should test 12.6 level in the following days.

Monty Burnz · 29-11-2012 5:59pm

I'm sure sophisticated investors here don't need the warning, but others might want to beware rampers.

Frere Jacques · 29-11-2012 6:15pm

caoty wrote: »

"People who talk down their country should commit suicide.":D

Bertie feck off, I know you and Brendan filled your boots at €15 but there is no need to try to talk it up. :P

Sponge Bob · 29-11-2012 6:56pm

I reckon they are underprovisioned for mortgage losses me. BoI were the largest residential mortgage lender and were big in BTL too where the losses are hideous.

Read this some time and remember that BoI and AIB account for much of this data.
http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/documents/the%20irish%20mortgage%20market%20stylised%20facts,%20negative%20equity%20and%20arrears.pdf

And that Data snapshot is from December 2010, 2 years back.

caoty · 29-11-2012 9:28pm

The market is aware of this information, otherwise the share won't trade 50% below its book value.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I reckon they are underprovisioned for mortgage losses me. BoI were the largest residential mortgage lender and were big in BTL too where the losses are hideous.

Read this some time and remember that BoI and AIB account for much of this data.
http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/documents/the%20irish%20mortgage%20market%20stylised%20facts,%20negative%20equity%20and%20arrears.pdf

And that Data snapshot is from December 2010, 2 years back.

RR2026 · 29-11-2012 10:46pm

Hi all,

I bought BOI share few months ago at 10 cents- now 10% rise in last 2 days. Should I cut my losses and sell these shares now?
Cheers!

Frere Jacques · 30-11-2012 12:51am

Well a person never went broke taking a profit but...
If you have about 5K worth you have now made 500 quid, not to be scoffed at but at least 100 will be gone in minimum fees. Maybe the shares game is not for you though if you are getting jumpy.
If you have 50K worth then maybe you shouldn't be in shares either though as it is one risky stock, unless you are loaded.
I'm not wanting to sound like a pr*ck but it's the type of stock you should buy with a couple of grand that you could afford to lose if it all went pear shaped and then forget about it for a couple of years.
If it's part of a portfolio I'd be slow to commit more than 10% of the total portfolio to risky shares (and would probably buy 2 or 3 speculative ones then, not just one).
So to make a long winded reply short(er), take the profit and enjoy the christmas, buy something nice that will last and you can say, my X quid from BOI paid for those and don't look at the share price with regret if it rises as you were happy to take the money, or else leave them there and relax, trying to time a market in penny stocks is pure chance.
My own take, I have a couple of grands worth and will leave them run long term. Might pay for the kids college someday instead of a trip to Ikea for the missus and a new push bike for me. If it falls, well there is nothing wrong with the bike I have now and I'm sick sh*t of flat pack anyway.

RR2026 · 01-12-2012 2:59am

Hi Frere Jacques, many thanks for your reply

Tidyweb · 02-12-2012 1:58pm

Yeah, likewise I ask myself the same questions. I've dipped in there from time to time to see how its going. I am always astounded by the amount of people who wander in to post here and think that because the SP is at a low 8 cents "it is cheap and worth a punt" with no notion at all that the price is a measure of monetary value vis a vis the amount of shares in issue and market sentiment into the future.

If people aren't going to educate themselves about how markets and investment work and how you go about valuing a company then they are destined to lose money, period.

Anyway I am just astounded that some are willing to invest (not trade) in BOI for "the long term", i.e. 10-15+ years. I've no doubt that they'll be in a better position in 10 years than they are today but along the way they are going to have share dilutions and will have to write off massive debts from BTLets and other imprudent lending. At best BOI might (and I mean might) add 20-30% to its value over the next decade. That is an optimistic outlook though.

There are far better shares out there that are much more stable than BOI and offer a lot better prospects for far less risk. So what do you count as plenty other with value

Like which ones?

Monty Burnz · 02-12-2012 2:01pm

Tidyweb wrote: »

Like which ones?

Asking for share tips from randomers on a chat forum is not the way to wealth my friend.

rugbyman · 04-12-2012 8:02pm

Monty,
I think it is reasonable ,that when someone comes on here to run down anothers beliefs,hopes,aspirations, esp when they say that there are better buys out there, they should mention a few better buys. That way their advice,tips can be measured.

Ratm did say invest ,not trade, but suggested that 20 to 30 % might be possible in a decade. It made the 20 % last week!!

I took 20 % over a year, on 1/3 of my holding, coulda ,woulda ,shoulda, missed out on another 20% by not waiting two days,am I mad(quite possibly) annoyed ,no
Rugbyman
Hello sponge

Monty Burnz · 04-12-2012 8:25pm

rugbyman wrote: »

Monty,
I think it is reasonable ,that when someone comes on here to run down anothers beliefs,hopes,aspirations, esp when they say that there are better buys out there, they should mention a few better buys. That way their advice,tips can be measured.

I hear that Ceva Inc is going to introduce a new proprietary chip technology that will see their share price quadruple over a 1 to 2 year timeline.

ranger4 · 05-12-2012 9:31am

I see the fkir has broke through resistance this morn and possibly on its way to re-test 15c q1 high, 25% increase from 12c possible on run upto xmas.

caoty · 05-12-2012 10:15am

TEXT-Fitch:Irish bank guarantee extension likely to be the last

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/04/idUSWLB171920121204?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43

Tidyweb · 06-12-2012 2:17pm

TEXT-Fitch:Irish bank guarantee extension likely to be the last

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...sSector&rpc=43

Will that be good or bad for the BOI share price

ranger4 · 06-12-2012 3:12pm

Tidyweb wrote: »

TEXT-Fitch:Irish bank guarantee extension likely to be the last

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...sSector&rpc=43

Will that be good or bad for the BOI share price

A possitive.

blass · 06-12-2012 3:50pm

here's hoping.
Mid twenties by summer with a bit of luck!

caoty · 06-12-2012 8:48pm

That's very optimistic.

blass wrote: »

here's hoping.
Mid twenties by summer with a bit of luck!

blass · 06-12-2012 9:02pm

caoty wrote: »

That's very optimistic.

Fair point. Maybe next summer is a bit soon for that level but I think 2013 will be a good year for bkir.

Monty Burnz · 06-12-2012 9:55pm

Tidyweb wrote: »

TEXT-Fitch:Irish bank guarantee extension likely to be the last

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...sSector&rpc=43

Will that be good or bad for the BOI share price

Very bad. They could in theory be allowed go bang if the unrecognised losses on the loan book are really bad. Bear in mind that repossession is almost unheard of here, so their loan book is basically composed of non-recourse mortgages.

Frere Jacques · 06-12-2012 11:59pm

Depends whether the cost of future write downs exceeds the amounts saved by not having to pay for the guarantee. Most commentators would tell you the costs will be a multiple of the savings, personally, I think there is a fair bit written into the share price. It can always drop further but this country won't always be in the crapper and we will still need a banking system.

Monty Burnz · 07-12-2012 12:15am

Frere Jacques wrote: »

Depends whether the cost of future write downs exceeds the amounts saved by not having to pay for the guarantee. Most commentators would tell you the costs will be a multiple of the savings, personally, I think there is a fair bit written into the share price. It can always drop further but this country won't always be in the crapper and we will still need a banking system.

You see on this thread how much the share price is propped up by hopes that it won't be as bad as we expect it to be. The market is no more immune to these hopes than the - excuse the term - mug punter. The cost of the guarantee is dwarfed by the billions of unrecognised losses amid their non-recourse mortgage book.

Rodin · 07-12-2012 12:19am

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I hear that Ceva Inc is going to introduce a new proprietary chip technology that will see their share price quadruple over a 1 to 2 year timeline.

Is this the same one that's halved in value in the past year?

Monty Burnz · 07-12-2012 12:23am

Rodin wrote: »

Is this the same one that's halved in value in the past year?

That's the one.

Frere Jacques · 07-12-2012 10:13am

Monty Burnz wrote: »

You see on this thread how much the share price is propped up by hopes that it won't be as bad as we expect it to be. The market is no more immune to these hopes than the - excuse the term - mug punter. The cost of the guarantee is dwarfed by the billions of unrecognised losses amid their non-recourse mortgage book.

"Dwarfed", I used the term multiples, so yes I see where you are coming from. I'm betting more on a corrupt state screwing over it's tax payers just to maintain the status quo and I'm also betting that maybe this country won't always be in the sh*t. It's a punt, little to lose.

ghost_mutt · 07-12-2012 11:01pm

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Very bad. They could in theory be allowed go bang if the unrecognised losses on the loan book are really bad. Bear in mind that repossession is almost unheard of here, so their loan book is basically composed of non-recourse mortgages.

not as if any of that is surprise news

the present rally can be put down to any number of things

a budget which upheld irelands commitments to europe
traders feeling that the stock is due a run
santa rally :rolleyes:

i dont think it will get to 20 cent in the next year but thats not to say it cant get to 15 by year end , its a speculative bet and some will make money along the way , knowing when the music stops is the trick

blass · 08-12-2012 1:10am

I detect a very pessimistic tone on this thread. Personally I think BOI is a no brainer in the long term. It just requires patience and the ability to see beyond the oft paranoid/schizo tendancies of the "Market". The glass is deffo half full.

caoty · 08-12-2012 11:32am

--》12.6--》16

blass · 08-12-2012 7:53pm

caoty wrote: »

--》12.6--》16

??

caoty · 08-12-2012 8:33pm

My BIR roadmap to peace;)

blass wrote: »

??

blass · 08-12-2012 8:43pm

caoty wrote: »

My BIR roadmap to peace;)

Sounds good with an average of 11.5!

neil.p.b · 08-12-2012 8:50pm

very little chance of breaking 15c in the short term IMO.

ghost_mutt · 08-12-2012 9:56pm

neil.p.b wrote: »

very little chance of breaking 15c in the short term IMO.

15 cents , thats 20% above where it is now , thats a huge jump , 14 would be a great rise in the short term , its not long ago when it was below 10

ive made money on bank of ireland three times this year but no more than 1500 euro , i presently own 2500 euro worth which i bought at 9.9 cent , il probabley keep that amount for the long haul but im tempted to pile in with around 5 k to see if i can ride this present rally , knowing me , i probabley wont , im cautious with bluechips let alone penny stocks

caoty · 11-12-2012 3:55pm

Consolidation below 12.6 before breaking through.

BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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