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Property Prices Good or Bad?

12357…11

Comments

  • #122
    mr_seer
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭mr_seer


    Davy Stockbrokers recently estimated that it was 70 years based on Q1 2014 transactions

    (not allowed to post link as I am a new user)

    Either way the market is massively illiquid. Any asset class experiencing such illiquidity eg. the Grey Market for shares, Dublin residential property, AIB shares currently (due to the very low free float) etc produces very unreliable and usually over inflated valuations. The end result is quite predictable.

    We are walking into this one with our eyes wide open. We should have learned from the last crash. I suppose people are only concerned with how the recent surge in Dublin property prices improves their own short term situation. When the music stops this time though, very few will get out and everyone else will suffer


  • #123
    Farmer Pudsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    gaius c wrote: »
    I was hoping for some sort of a citation actually because I work in the manufacturing industry (you know the one that actually brings money into the country) and that started dying a death from 2001 onwards.

    No study to prove it etc, if you look from early noughties inflation was rampant running at nearly 5%/year workers in exporting area's suffered a real declined in income compare to inflation. Houses prices are not in the inflation index as they are considered index neutral. A lot of these thing are common sense, it likt the cost of working not being allowed V welfare.


    mr_seer wrote: »
    Davy Stockbrokers recently estimated that it was 70 years based on Q1 2014 transactions

    (not allowed to post link as I am a new user)

    Either way the market is massively illiquid. Any asset class experiencing such illiquidity eg. the Grey Market for shares, Dublin residential property, AIB shares currently (due to the very low free float) etc produces very unreliable and usually over inflated valuations. The end result is quite predictable.

    We are walking into this one with our eyes wide open. We should have learned from the last crash. I suppose people are only concerned with how the recent surge in Dublin property prices improves their own short term situation. When the music stops this time though, very few will get out and everyone else will suffer

    TBH this is a Dublin only issue as opposed to nationwide with exception of Dublin, Cork and Galway most houses are below cost of construction. The other thing the porportion of mortgage to equity is quite high in present loans so it will be a buyer issue as opposed to a banking issue.

    The issue that crippled the country the last time was the level of debt and inter bank debt. I think if a banking collapse was again on the cards the government would be less libel to step in to rescue.


  • #124
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    gaius c wrote: »
    No. The turnover rate is looking at actual transactions. I'm in a hurry here but this article references only 1.9% of the Dublin stock changing hands over a 12 month period which would indicate the "average" person owning a house for over 50 years.
    That's clearly way off as it would mean "average" people lived in the house they first bought in their twenties and never traded up. A more normal figure would be 20-30 years.

    It is clearly way off/rubbish but why quote way off/rubbish articles especially when if it was true it wouldn't back up your point. If this article was true, it would mean only 1.9% of properties change hands but 2.5% of properties are for sale. That would mean we have enough supply but not enough demand yet your point was that we need repossessions to meet demand.


  • #125
    gaius c
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Read my post again. You're confusing actual transaction volume (my figure) with houses advertised for sale (your own figure), which is a meaningless stat really.


  • #126
    Volthar
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭Volthar


    I can't help feeling the current property price increase in Dublin is orchestrated and serves double purpose: 1. further indebt the society and 2. start reposessions.

    1. These who were lucky and bought cheap will be offered re-mortgages to keep them and their families slaves of the financial system forever.
    2. Banks do not reposess now as they will loose. Better wait until prices go up by another few percent.

    As someone mentioned earlier media promote increase as a sign of recovery. One thing they do not lie about is that there are not enough properties on offer. How about all these ghost estates, boarded up houses and NAMA stock? If these were on offer prices would fall. This is why, and I do not blame them, NAMA, banks and owners keep them hoping prices will go up forever. As usually big players will win selling when it suits them best. Hopefully soon.


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  • #127
    Dredd_J
    Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭Dredd_J


    Nama will only release houses at a reate that does not cause the current prices to drop.
    They want to see a steady increase and will engineer that,


  • #128
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    Dredd_J wrote: »
    Nama will only release houses at a reate that does not cause the current prices to drop.
    They want to see a steady increase and will engineer that,

    Great. So people looking for a house are forced to pay taxes to make their house purchases more expensive. All to create a mini boom which won't survive relatively tiny increases in supply.


  • #129
    Dredd_J
    Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭Dredd_J


    Yep. Nama would say they arent there to help people buy houses.
    They are there to manage assets and get the best price they can for the tax payer for them.


  • #130
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    Dredd_J wrote: »
    Yep. Nama would say they arent there to help people buy houses.
    They are there to manage assets and get the best price they can for the tax payer for them.

    The best return for the taxpayer would be 2008 prices. Or higher.


  • #131
    NZ_2014
    Registered Users Posts: 306 ✭✭NZ_2014


    The Diabolical Monocle wrote: »
    I think we should have low quality high density subsidised shoebox accommodation towers available to live in. You should be able to buy a 5 x 5 m dwelling cube / w4nk cave for a ridiculously low price. Yes it will be low quality and you'll be surrounded by all sorts. But its that or the current system that owns the individuals life until they can pay off a mortgage.
    You can buy a sht, cheap car. Why not the same for accommodation, 40 grand should buy you a cube with lockable door, a water tap, a socket, and a hole

    Property developments like the above could help the Dublin property crisis.


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  • #132
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    What's really odd about all this is the belief that house price rises are inevitable and irreversible. Whatever excuse people had in 2006..


  • #133
    Dredd_J
    Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭Dredd_J


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    What's really odd about all this is the belief that house price rises are inevitable and irreversible. Whatever excuse people had in 2006..

    The only thing im sure of nowadays is that i have absolutely no clue what will happen with the economy or property prices 5 to 10 years down the line.

    Economics lecturer said that to us in 1994. Now I agree. Thought he was talking out of his hole at the time.


  • #134
    AlekSmart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    NZ_2014 wrote: »
    Property developments like the above could help the Dublin property crisis.

    Originally Posted by The Diabolical Monocle View Post
    I think we should have low quality high density subsidised shoebox accommodation towers available to live in. You should be able to buy a 5 x 5 m dwelling cube / w4nk cave for a ridiculously low price. Yes it will be low quality and you'll be surrounded by all sorts. But its that or the current system that owns the individuals life until they can pay off a mortgage.
    You can buy a sht, cheap car. Why not the same for accommodation, 40 grand should buy you a cube with lockable door, a water tap, a socket, and a hole

    Not a bad premise to use as a starting point TDM....there are even tentative sectoral moves in that direction....

    http://zigguratstudents.ie/

    http://zigguratstudents.ie/pricing/

    Accommodation type Rent per week

    Classic rooms €180 SOLD OUT
    Classic upper floor rooms €191 - €199 SOLD OUT
    Top floor rooms €217.50 From January 2015
    Superior rooms €230 Last Few Remaining
    Penthouse (Coming Soon) €265

    The only aspect to this which I find hard to comprehend is why the Montrose Hotel was left lying idle for SO long,whilst the need for this type of venture was being screamed from the minarets

    This type of venture really should be explored,improved and promoted as it considerably lessens the negative aura which surrounds much of the current Irish Residential Rental market
    __________________
    "It should be possible for the labourers,the artisans and the Mechanics of Ireland to live,thrive and prosper at home"
    Charles Stewart Parnell.


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • #135
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    It's hilarious how sentiment in Ireland goes from extreme gloom to extreme boom. We can't have normal feelings towards houses. Now we all have to live in shoeboxes again.


  • #136
    MayoSalmon
    Registered Users Posts: 2,325 ✭✭✭MayoSalmon


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    It's hilarious how sentiment in Ireland goes from extreme gloom to extreme boom. We can't have normal feelings towards houses. Now we all have to live in shoeboxes again.

    Nothin wrong with living in a shoebox once it doesn't cost €300,000


  • #137
    Sober Too
    Registered Users Posts: 37 ✭Sober Too


    Yesterdays ^ Indo headline Sat 2/7/14

    Looks like the wise ones @ BOI have decided its all systems go , and nows the time for the selling off of 1500 houses.

    Is this going to prove a wise decision ? , are they running while the goings good, or did they bottle it in a fast evolving sellers market.

    Any pointers as to just where BOI will advertise these properties, whats the usual form ?

    ps. can`t give the link as a`newbie` , anyone care to help out here , many thanks.


  • #138
    golfwallah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭golfwallah


    Sober Too wrote: »
    Yesterdays ^ Indo headline Sat 2/7/14

    Looks like the wise ones @ BOI have decided its all systems go , and nows the time for the selling off of 1500 houses.

    Is this going to prove a wise decision ? , are they running while the goings good, or did they bottle it in a fast evolving sellers market.

    Any pointers as to just where BOI will advertise these properties, whats the usual form ?

    ps. can`t give the link as a`newbie` , anyone care to help out here , many thanks.

    Link to Indo article:
    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/bank-of-ireland-to-stir-up-market-with-sale-of-1500-homes-30478683.html


  • #139
    golfwallah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭golfwallah


    As if we didn't already know, it's now official that there is a big housing shortage in Dublin - confirmed by the ESRI, according to this Irish Times article:
    Almost 60,000 houses need to be built in Dublin by 2021 to meet population demands, according to fresh research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    However, most of the country, outside the greater Dublin area and regional cities, requires no additional housing to be built and is expected to have an oversupply of vacant property by the end of the decade.
    The capital is facing “significant housing shortages” if the rate of construction is not “increased rapidly” the ESRI report noted.

    No mention of house sales by banks, so I guess the forthcoming foreclosure sales will make only a small dent in the supply problem!


  • #140
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    I heard on the radio this morning that the ESRI also reckon we are going to have a critical shortage of trades people. Back to the days of everyone doing a trade and getting gouged by a ****e plumber who shows up 4 days late. Its going to start all over again isn't it? :(


  • #141
    professore
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭professore


    gaius c wrote: »
    Builders are like farmers & taxi drivers in that they'll play poor mouth and claim it's not possible to make money but the simple trap to lay for them is to ask how much it cost to build their own (usually much higher spec) house. Most of them like to brag about this. That'll give you an idea of just how much of a mark up, they are putting on ordinary houses.

    You're forgetting about wages, they work for free for months building their own house.


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  • #142
    golfwallah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭golfwallah


    mr_seer wrote: »
    There are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure? Really? That is a genuine question by the way. I haven't seen any so I am curious. Can you provide a link?

    Not exactly an avalanche, but there are some reports hitting the papers:

    Banks have Stockpile of repossessed houses: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/banks-have-stockpile-of-1500-repossessed-properties-29917294.html

    Banks ready to repossess homes:
    Permanent TSB: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/banks-ready-to-repossess-thousands-of-homes-in-debt-264893.html

    Danske Bank: http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0207/502791-danske-bank-portfolio/

    Bank of Ireland: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/bank-of-ireland-to-stir-up-market-with-sale-of-1500-homes-30478683.html


  • #143
    golfwallah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭golfwallah


    gaius c wrote: »
    I do indeed and you don't have to go far for some of them.
    Other examples are anecdotal from my peer group but there is an enormous amount of messing on the supply side with stuff like "you're the only bidder and you've met the asking price of X but the real selling price is X+20%".

    Agreed, we've all probably heard reports of messing going on as regards asking prices and I wouldn't like to be out there myself looking for a house at the moment.

    But it's always been a bit messy in my experience (and I've moved house 4 times over the years). It's just that now, prices seem to be shooting through the roof again and talk about increases in supply and foreclosure sales are not having much immediate effect.

    I guess prices will begin to stabilise as supply begins to come on stream and more foreclosure sales take place ..... but all that takes time and is of only limited comfort to those trying to buy right now!


  • #144
    72DSpecial
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭72DSpecial


    Mmmmmmm..... The usual Dub-bias coming in I fear. Calling a Longford or Roscommon the back end of nowhere. Not everyone wants to live in Dublin. To me suburbia is hell - and I could never understand the peak of the market because NO semi-D is EVER worth over 200K since it could involve ending up living next to the greatest a**hole on the planet and you are stuck there! Thus we bought out in the boondocks where our nearest neighbour is half a Km away, we are not overlooked by anyone, we have an acre of garden and overlook a beautiful valley with mountains on the horizon. We have our own well so no water charges. We grow a lot of our own veg too.
    Don't get me wrong - I loved living in the city too, but IN the city, right in the heart of it where you get all the advantages of transport, entertainment, services etc. And we did that for a while in a one bed terraced house which we now rent out. It has recovered a little in value, but not much and is in a bit of negative equity. It just about pays for itself so we will hang on to it if we can afford to.
    The house we live in cost us 210K and is now 'worth' about half that. But we don't care because we bought it to live in, not to make money out of it. As long as we can pay the mortgage we are happy.
    The Dublin market seems to be a basket case. Too much money floating around looking for an investment opportunity since the banks are now basically charging people to hold their money!
    I think the government need to get rid of their Dub-centric thinking and concentrate a bit more on development outside the pale. Otherwise we just go further down the English route where all the jobs and wealth are concentrated in London.


  • #145
    72DSpecial
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭72DSpecial


    chopper6 wrote: »
    Why would anybody want to retire from Dublin to that part of longford?

    Or come back from workeing abroad to settle in that part of the world?

    The reason the place is so cheap is because NOBODY WANTS TO LIVE THERE!

    You mean YOU don't want to live there.

    When I got offered a job with a company I stayed with for ten years, my main condition for taking the position was that I NEVER want to be sent to or based in Dublin. So if I applied your logic I could say 'Dublin? - NO ONE WANTS TO LIVE THERE!'.

    I certainly don't.


  • #146
    drumswan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭drumswan


    72DSpecial wrote: »
    You mean YOU don't want to live there.

    When I got offered a job with a company I stayed with for ten years, my main condition for taking the position was that I NEVER want to be sent to or based in Dublin. So if I applied your logic I could say 'Dublin? - NO ONE WANTS TO LIVE THERE!'.

    I certainly don't.
    Relatively few people want to live in rural Longford compared to SCD.


  • #147
    72DSpecial
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭72DSpecial


    chopper6 wrote: »
    Tell me why Dublin has the largest inward-migrattion of any part of the country despite most people wanting to get away from there?

    Then tell me about longford's "vast array of amenities".

    When i used to hang around there the only "amenities" longford had was pubs and takeaways...i've since heard that many of the pubs and takeaways have closed.

    It seems to me that every so often rural types pop up here with a weird idea about buying and selling houses in the bog-end of the country is a good way to improve the economy....despite actual evidence to the contraray.

    I can't speak for Longford, but I really don't like Dublin, having lived and worked there in the past and I would not live there now under any circumstances. I think we have to get the Dub-centric thinking of the Government to change in order to avoid getting into the same situation as England, where the wealth and jobs are too heavily concentrated in one area.

    By the way I love the idea of 'rural types' popping up anywhere! Very funny thought, but over three quarters of the population of this country do live outside Dublin, you know!


  • #148
    72DSpecial
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭72DSpecial


    drumswan wrote: »
    Relatively few people want to live in rural Longford compared to SCD.

    I cannot speak as regards rural Longford, since I have never lived there. I have lived in Cork city, Dublin City, rural Leitrim (Yes! Leitrim!), rural Kerry (several locations), Galway City, Rural Galway (Connemara even!), Rural Mayo and Wesht Cork.

    I have no clue where or what SCD is.

    But I do know that lots of people do actually live outside Dublin and that to them, the housing market is just as important an issue as it is to those who do live in the capital.

    I also know that the price index used by the government falls apart when it comes to rural Ireland. According to the index my house in Wesht Cork is worth 250K +. In reality it would not sell at the moment for more than 100K. Yet if the house was about 15 Km away it would sell for 300K +.

    Rising house prices are just as important issue to those of us who are lucky enough to live in the wesht!


  • #149
    chopper6
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,214 ✭✭✭chopper6


    72DSpecial wrote: »
    I think we have to get the Dub-centric thinking of the Government to change in order to avoid getting into the same situation as England, where the wealth and jobs are too heavily concentrated in one area.

    So it's the Govt's fault that Dublin is the capital of Ireland and has been for 1000 years?

    What do you suggest,we start a New Capital in Granard?

    maybe we can build an international airport there for all the people who don't want to live in Dublin?
    We can somehow build a maritime docks there too with a deepwater harbour,build a huge motorway and install broadband so all the new business there will have superfast computer connections.


  • #150
    golfwallah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭golfwallah


    72DSpecial wrote: »
    I can't speak for Longford, but I really don't like Dublin, having lived and worked there in the past and I would not live there now under any circumstances. I think we have to get the Dub-centric thinking of the Government to change in order to avoid getting into the same situation as England, where the wealth and jobs are too heavily concentrated in one area.

    By the way I love the idea of 'rural types' popping up anywhere! Very funny thought, but over three quarters of the population of this country do live outside Dublin, you know!

    Do you really think Dub-centric government thinking is behind rising house prices in Dublin or, more to the point, that there is a lot more government can do to dampen down the excess of demand over supply that is causing prices to rise?

    They tried "decentralisation" - didn't work / quietly dropped but cost the country a fortune. Government have increased their spend on rural broadband, in as much as budget allows. Significant drivers of demand by industry come from their need for clusters of skilled people, public transport and other infrastructure - don't see how government can change these "facts of life".

    And still more and more people want to live in Dublin. Maybe you could enlighten us as to how much more government could affordably do to change these factors in the real world?


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  • #151
    Farmer Pudsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    chopper6 wrote: »
    So it's the Govt's fault that Dublin is the capital of Ireland and has been for 1000 years?

    What do you suggest,we start a New Capital in Granard?

    maybe we can build an international airport there for all the people who don't want to live in Dublin?
    We can somehow build a maritime docks there too with a deepwater harbour,build a huge motorway and install broadband so all the new business there will have superfast computer connections.

    It is not about building a new capital it is about a decentralization of resources. A very good example is Shannon Airport. For the last forty years since the necessity for the Shannon stopover finished it development was hindered by the DAA. The DAA tried to make sure it was economically uncompeditive. With a new independent board and managment flights into it have jumped and this is one of the reasons that the west coast is enjoying one of it best tourism seasons ever.

    Swa an artice in a newspaper a few weeks ago about an IBM worker in Lexslip. He is married with childern. He looked at the Dublin housing situtation and was looking at a mortgage of 250+ to buy a suitable house. His commute would be over an hour a day and his wife's the same with issues regarding childcare scgool provision etc.

    They bought in wait for it Longford imagine that. The house price was I think was betwen 50-80K not sure of exact price. His reasoning was than they had virtually no mortgage (as they had partial deposit for other house with 250k loan) with his wife not working they eliminated the need for child care.

    If you reason it out further if working in Dublin she require a good car as well however a cheaper car was an option in Longford. Property tax, house insurance, car insurance would be cheaper. His transport costs would not work out much dearer than running two cars in Dublin.

    They also would have all the faculities they required in Longford, within reach, schools, cinema, sports and leisure faculities etc like most other mid sized towns in Ireland. He did comment that he faced a longer commute about 2 hours/day however he said for general lifestyle it was the best option. I imagine if his wife picked up a part time job it would be win win. The other thing he commented on was that he had the option of looking for work close to his now home.

    I remember commenting on the requirement for new builds in Dublin a months ago on this thread I see that the ERSI is more or less of the same opinion. In fact I think they under estimate the requirement but at least the issue is becoming visible.


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