Government too busy trying to halt the rise of Sinn Fein to run country properly

dharma200 wrote: »

. I am no shinner but these idiots need to go.

I Heart Internet wrote: »

And anyway, halting the rise of Sinn Fein IS running the country properly!

BonkeyDonker wrote: »

In power I would imagine they would be no different that the current lot

Arthur Beesley wrote: »

And I bet he still doesn't know the VAT rate down south.

He should piss off back to where he came from.

Arthur Beesley wrote: »

And I bet he still doesn't know the VAT rate down south.

He should piss off back to where he came from.

DazMarz wrote: »

Precisely. I don't see them getting to 30 seats, but even doubling their seat total to circa 28 seats would be massive for them.

Labour... dear, oh dear. They had the best opportunity of any political party in Irish history had they been able to see 5 minutes in front of their own faces. Had they stayed out of government and had they gone into opposition, the position they would now find themselves in would be phenomenal.

Labour won 31 seats at the 2011 Election. Had they gone into opposition, it would have forced FG/FF into coalition then. Labour would have been a crushing opposition party to that coalition. Labour's support would have skyrocketed. They would easily have taken north of 50 seats at the next election had they stayed out of government in 2011. They would have crippled both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in doing so.

However, they did not... and they find themselves in the position of being toxic and unpopular and will be lucky to retain a third of their seats.

DazMarz wrote: »

Rest assured, Sinn Féin will not be in government following 2016. It has become blatantly apparent from looking around the country following the local elections that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are getting closer and closer to one another (in fairness, they are two cheeks of the same arse). They will form a coalition in 2016, along with the remnants of Labour, any Greens who might get elected and a few Independents.

In order for Sinn Féin to force themselves into government, they will need to be at around 30/40 seats in the Dáil. Even at that, if Fine Gael don't lose too many seats, if Fianna Fáil manage to get to 30 seats or so and if Labour hold about 10 seats, that should be enough to form a coalition for them. They might not need straggling Greens or Independents.

The current make up of the Dáil is as follows:

FG: 70
Lab: 34
FF: 20
SF: 14
Others (incl. Ceann Comhairle): 28

Fine Gael will still have north of 55/60 seats following 2016. Labour will be cut severely, but will still probably maintain about 10 or so seats. Fianna Fáil could stagnate at 20, but will probably gain a few, putting them at 25 or so. Sinn Féin will gain, but will do very well to get to 30 seats, and probably won't.

Going on those numbers (FG 60, FF 25, Lab 10) that is enough to secure a majority, albeit a thinner one than currently exists. However, this is bearing in mind that the Dáil will be reduced from 166 seats to 158 at the next general election.

The current legal position is that the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Tuesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Saturday 3 April 2016. However, it could come sooner than that. I don't think it will, but if the budget this October does not pass, there could be a general election in November.

I have no doubt that Sinn Féin will poll well, but they will struggle to get 2 candidates elected in any 1 constituency, due to their transfer toxicity and splitting the vote should there be 2 candidates. I do not think that, regardless of what the other parties do or do not do, Sinn Féin will win enough seats in the next General Election to force themselves into power.

This begs the question, however, do Sinn Féin REALLY want to get into power? Or would they rather continue to sit on the fence and snipe at everything? If they got into power (and it would only be via a coalition with FG/FF that this would happen), their core voters would see this as a betrayal, they would be a minority partner in government, would either go the way of Labour or pull out of government very rapidly and so on. I don't think they genuinely want to get into power (unless it was with an overall majority, which is not happening). I think they would prefer to play the victim card, keep sniping in opposition and continue to keep saying how much better they would run things, without ever having to put their money where their mouth is.

If it should come to pass that FG and FF go into coalition together, for the very first time in Irish politics there will be a clear left/right divide in the Dáil. Since the foundation of the state, the two major political parties have traditionally been, obviously, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Both of them have strikingly similar ideologies, core supporters, positions, etc. They are both centre-right parties (despite what Fianna Fáil might have said at various times). It was strange when you considered other countries; the divide between the two biggest political parties was usually the left/right divide.

All of that said, the General Election in 2016 (or whenever it will be) will be one of the most interesting in living memory. Quite simply put, absolutely anything could happen. I've said what I think will happen. But who knows. I could be completely wrong. I personally feel it will be some variation of FG/FF/Lab/misc., but it genuinely could swing any way.