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can sinn fein win in tipp in the next GE?

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  • 18-12-2014 11:07am
    #1
    William F
    Closed Accounts Posts: 473 ✭✭


    Tipperary hasnt been a traditional stronghold for SF but in the last locals 5 counsellors wrre elected.
    With the amalgamation of north and south tipp its seems as though they could have around 9,500 first preference voters.
    Would this be enough to secure a TD for them in the new constitutency?


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    #2
    golfball37
    Registered Users Posts: 4,548 ✭✭✭golfball37


    3 things will all have to align to guarantee a seat in Tipp imo.


    A good unifying candidate who will get the LE vote throughut the county. This is the first time Tipp has been a whole constituency so that might not be as easy as one thinks.

    Seamus Healy not running

    Alan Kelly continuing to be unpopular.

    I would assume 4 of the 5 seats in Tipp are filled already with Lowry, 1 FF, 1 FG [Hayes] and probably Mattie. Kelly is not liked according to my Tipp cousins but a big factory coming to Nenagh or the likes would play well for him. SF won't get as many votes in a GE as a LE so they would need a lot of things falling into place to get a seat in Tipp. They should be in the hunt at least which is a big improvement for them I suppose.


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    #3
    William F
    Closed Accounts Posts: 473 ✭✭William F


    golfball37 wrote: »
    3 things will all have to align to guarantee a seat in Tipp imo.


    A good unifying candidate who will get the LE vote throughut the county. This is the first time Tipp has been a whole constituency so that might not be as easy as one thinks.

    Seamus Healy not running

    Alan Kelly continuing to be unpopular.

    I would assume 4 of the 5 seats in Tipp are filled already with Lowry, 1 FF, 1 FG [Hayes] and probably Mattie. Kelly is not liked according to my Tipp cousins but a big factory coming to Nenagh or the likes would play well for him. SF won't get as many votes in a GE as a LE so they would need a lot of things falling into place to get a seat in Tipp. They should be in the hunt at least which is a big improvement for them I suppose.

    Any idea what the quota will be?


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    #4
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    William F wrote: »
    Tipperary hasnt been a traditional stronghold for SF but in the last locals 5 counsellors wrre elected.
    With the amalgamation of north and south tipp its seems as though they could have around 9,500 first preference voters.
    Would this be enough to secure a TD for them in the new constitutency?



    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/elections/local-elections/tipperary


    According to this, Sinn Fein got 7,507 out of 75,299 votes, just under 10% at 9.96% in County Tipperary.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipperary_%28D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency%29

    According to this, the new constituency will have five seats. Apart from some areas around Borrisokane, most of the constituency is equivalent to the county, which makes the two elections fairly comparable. To win a seat in the general election, Sinn Fein will need 16.66% of the vote, less after several counts if the number of non-transferables is significant.

    How did Sinn Fein do on transfers? Well, at first glance not too bad, as it ended up with 5 out of the 40 seats, 12.5%, higher than its first preference vote of 9.96%. Based on those figures, Sinn Fein will need a 40% increase in its first preference vote to get to around 14% to put it within distance of a seat.

    With 26% of the vote, there is nearly two seats for FG with a good split of candidates. Caution on this because there was no Lowry in the locals. FF have 1.5 quotas meaning two seats are not impossible for them, especially if they could entice Mattie back.

    There must be at least one left-wing seat between Healy, SF and Labour.

    If I was to predict it, Healy, Lowry, 1 FG and 1 FF (Mattie) with the last seat between FG, FF and SF, with SF losing out as the other two will transfer between themselves before transferring to SF.


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    #5
    skooterblue2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,816 ✭✭✭skooterblue2


    In my opinion If it wasnt for Seamus Healy and Michael Lowry Tipperary would well forgotten about. government for years have ignore it.
    FAS were complained about not visiting Tipperary (South Riding) for years. Plenty of agry unemployed young people on the Verge of emigrating and poor access to Education. Tipperary institute of Technology is 25 years younger than many of the other IT's in the county. That is a good basis for voting for Sinn Fein. Not needing to add water charges and other problems to the pot.


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