The Arc

nungesser · 29-09-2011 3:48pm

i've narrowed it down to three horses I like: Snow Fairy, Meandre, Treasure Beach. I was at Leopardstown when So You Think won and I keep coming back to the fact that Snow Fairy was closing and would have had him with an extra furlong. Meandre will be suited by faster ground and although beaten by Reliable Man in their last race it looked to me like Maxine Guyon was being easy on the horse at the finish, I like the way Meandre travels in his races. Treasure Beach as e/w bet at big odds. Really impressive on the win at the Curragh and then beaten in France but I get the impression after watching that race that Treasure Beach did not realise it was in a race, way out in front with Seville as if they where riding a works,But then goes on to win impressively in Arlington at a shorter distance. I noted that the horse wasnt really picking up speed till the last hundred yards being more suited to 1m 4f instead of the 1m 2f. Interesting stat for every one. 16 of the last 18 winners came from single figure draw and last years first five home were all came out of single figure stalls. Good Luck on your horses!

mailburner · 29-09-2011 4:29pm

not sure if masked marvel is good enough but 14s not a bad ew price
and it has been supplemented for 100k
looked really good in the leger but much better opposition here

having just watched last years race again i do think sarafina might
be very hard to beat http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpV5BOj9VRw&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL55098727FE30A9CE
the fact that she was badly hampered around 6f out and to finish
like she did was something else
if shes a little closer to the pace and the gaps appear she'll be awful
hard to beat and shes as high as 4s and as low as 5/2 with lads which
is a good sign imo
i agree too with that nakayama festa is just too big at 25s now considering
only beaten a head by workforce last year yet over 3 times the price

kfallon · 29-09-2011 4:48pm

Meandre is the real stats horse however I've backed Galikova as she will be receiving all the allowances and looks like 1m 4f is her optimum trip. I'm not confident of anything in the race and I've already been burnt with the retirement of Pour Moi who I believe would have won this race.

I may have a saver on Meandre

Montjeu · 29-09-2011 8:08pm

This Arc has been severely diminished without the participation of Pour Moi and Nathaniel but an interesting race all the same.

Very hard to pick the winner but one thing glaringly obvious is that Treasure Beach is overpriced at 40/1. 1st and 2nd in two Derbys over 12f and won't mind quickish ground. Add in the weight allowance and the record of 3 year old colts and he is worth a shout at the odds.

Sarafina is a classy mare and I would love to see a Zarkava-esque performance from her. Hiruno D'Amour is an interesting sort aswell. I might be missing something with SYT but he is one I would strongly avoid.

supremenovice · 29-09-2011 8:30pm

Think Ill have a couple of points on the two Japanese horses.
They are overdue a big win in Europe - I know its not sound reasoning but it looks a fairly weak Arc with Pour Moi and Nathaniel out.
Apparently, Hiruno Damour has been scorching up the gallops.

tryfix · 29-09-2011 9:50pm

I said So You Think all along so I'll stick with him. Really like Reliable Man and Galikova and see them as the dangers.

hucklebuck · 29-09-2011 11:41pm

Just get on Galikova lads, I agree that Treasure Beach is a huge price and should be on the premises. So You Think is far too skinny at 4/1, not convinced he has the middle distance speed/stamina combo nor that he properly gets 1m4, the further he went the more likely he was to get chinned by Snow Fairy.

Might do Galikova, Snow Fairy, Treasure Beach SFC.

Still got my 31 about Galikova

tryfix · 30-09-2011 10:20am

Anyone think O'Brien could do the 1,2,3 he has no duds in the race they are all top class horses. St Nick was a disappointment in the King George but the slow pace didn't help, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run on for a place. So You Think and Treasure Beach should be in the mix and have top class Gp1 form on good ground.

baazzaa · 30-09-2011 12:45pm

To answer your question no I dont think he can do the 123.
The best of them is so you think by a long way, I dont overly rate treasure beach, I think he was slightly flattered by his second to pour moi .Coolmore main hope of winning this was Pour Moi,
We would all be ,mad to ignore so you think, if any of the older colts can win this its him,there isnt an outstanding 3ry colt in it this year at all.Pour Moi was it and was held in high regard,

When you look back over the past 12 years you see a list of winners the majority that were really were top class horses,Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Zarkava, Sea the Stars(now one of the all time greats), you have sindarr , rail link, montjeu, lamtarra.

What they all had in common, was pure class, simple, plus great jockeys and great trainers,

All this information points to the picking of the class horse in the race, the one that should deserve his name ecthed along side these horse,
That horse is So you Think,

Slattsy · 30-09-2011 12:59pm

tryfix wrote: »

Anyone think O'Brien could do the 1,2,3 he has no duds in the race they are all top class horses. St Nick was a disappointment in the King George but the slow pace didn't help, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run on for a place. So You Think and Treasure Beach should be in the mix and have top class Gp1 form on good ground.

So You Think is the best horse in the race. Unfortunately for the horse he has been ridden wrong in every single race since obrien has had him.
This horse prefers to be dropped in behind and produced late. Not ridden from the front and having questions asked half a mile from home. His best run was beating Workforce when he was produced late by Seamie.
I think being drawn wide will really play to SYT strength as he will have to be held up and come past horses. Luck in running is huge here obviously but i expect him to win in what looks an average Arc without Pour Moi.

Montjeu · 30-09-2011 7:53pm

This is the draw for anyone interested.

1. Hiruno D'amour
2. Danedream
3. Testosterone
4. Galikova
5. Masked Marvel
6. St. Nicholas Abbey
7. Reliable Man
8. Workforce
9. Shareta
10. Meandre
11. Snow Fairy
12. Treasure Beach
13. Sarafina
14. So You Think
15. Silver Pond
16. Nakayama Festa

The more I look into this race Reliable Man becomes a lot more interesting. Worries over the ground but judging by recent racing times it seems to be on the softer side of good.

hucklebuck · 01-10-2011 5:17pm

1. Galikova
2. Snow Fairy
3. Treasure Beach

That is all you need to know.

tryfix · 01-10-2011 7:13pm

1. Reliable Man
2. So You Think
3. Galikova

Montjeu · 01-10-2011 8:02pm

Meandre
Reliable Man
Treasure Beach

A weak renewal but it should be an interesting race all the same. On a separate note, what a fabulous day racing tomorrow will be as a whole with 7 group 1's.

mailburner · 01-10-2011 8:11pm

sarifina too big at 5s even with a wide draw (w hill)
ive gone with her and an ew bet on masked marvel

kincsem · 02-10-2011 12:54am

Meandre.

kincsem · 02-10-2011 1:05am

Where the winner was drawn.

Year Draw Runners Time
2008 1 16 148.8
1994 2 20 151.1
1997 2 18 144.6
2002 3 16 144.7
1999 4 14 158.5
2006 4 8 146.3
1996 5 16 149.9
2004 5 19 145.0
2005 6 15 147.4
2007 6 12 148.5
2009 6 19 146.3
1995 7 16 151.8
1998 7 14 154.5
2000 7 10 145.8
2010 8 18 155.3
1993 9 23 157.9
1991 12 14 151.4
1992 14 18 159.0
2003 14 13 152.3
2001 15 17 156.1

A single digit draw looks best most years.
The few times high stall horses won the time was slow.
I assume those years the draw was unimportant.
Possibly the ground on the inside rail was cut up and that hindered the low draw horses.

Nulty · 02-10-2011 1:39am

I have a feeling Sarafina is going to (try) cut through the field and get a passage through close to the rail if possible. She'll be towards the back of course but through the race she'll be edging into a better position. That's probably why they put her through that gap in the Foy.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-10-2011 10:48am

mailburner wrote: »

sarifina too big at 5s even with a wide draw (w hill)
ive gone with her and an ew bet on masked marvel

She's way too short at 5's if you ask me, its a big ask for a filly to win an arc let alone from stall 13. Plus given her style of running it's going to be very hard to get home in front. Lay all day.

Reliable man for me huge price at tens for a french derby and prix niel winner, Ground is softer than they were expecting today as well.

1. Reliable man
2. Hiruno Damour
3. So you think

Nulty · 02-10-2011 11:32am

1. Sarafina
2. Meandre
3. Masked Marvel

Montjeu · 02-10-2011 12:15pm

Fabulous ride by Mosse to start things off.

UrbanSea · 02-10-2011 12:44pm

Questions over whether or not Reliable Man is going to run with the ground.

Treasure Beach each way,I love that horse. Galikova a big danger

UrbanSea · 02-10-2011 12:49pm

Fcuk I fancied Tangerine Trees but didn't back it

Montjeu · 02-10-2011 1:13pm

Judging by Kasbah Bliss' win the ground seems to be pretty quick. Will have another cut at Meandre.

longshotvalue · 02-10-2011 2:26pm

Ill be investing 6 points in this race all on outsiders.

1 pt EW 33/1 St. Nich Abbey. I just think he has a bit more in the tank than he has shown this year and if he can ben ridden forcably and to the fore he may grind a place, and in my opinion has a chance of winning.
1 pt EW 33/1 Treasure Beach. 3 yos have an excellent record, and he is about as solid a 3yo as there is this year with some of the best form. In addition the ground looks to be in his favour.
1 pt EW 33/1 Nakayama Festa. 2nd last year, and this race has a habit of trowing up repeat good performances , he is drawn wide which isnt great but he isnt that big a shot to place here.

Ill also be going for a 1 pt win bet on one of my Fav horses Marchand d'Or in the 2:30. altough its over 7 furlongs and the ground wont really suit, he is in good form and 27.0 on betfair looks big.. 1 pt win 27.0 betfair

Nulty · 02-10-2011 3:28pm

Jaysus, that race needs a lot of watching. The German hacked up!

kincsem · 02-10-2011 3:41pm

And she was supplemented.

tryfix · 02-10-2011 4:04pm

The winner was magnificent an improving 3yo filly but what the hell happened the rest of the field, the O'Brien horses ran well but Sarafina, meander,reliable Man, Galilova, Workforce etc they really let the top Gp 1 form down. The Arc is a great race to watch but the bookies must be laughing all the way to the Bank this year.

hucklebuck · 02-10-2011 4:15pm

I can't believe the ride Peslier gave Galikova, gave her no chance, I thought he was going to angle her out at the bend after she got snatched up on the rail in the false straight.

Hawk Wing 2 · 02-10-2011 4:37pm

The winner was very impressive

Itziger · 02-10-2011 8:52pm

The winner was impressive but as has been said, wtf happened the other fancied runners?? All the trial winners and runners up (I think) were 20 lengths back. So You Think did ok from where he was but all in all a bit disappointing.

Montjeu · 02-10-2011 10:10pm

I don't think it was a case of the others not performing to expectations but rather they were just blown away by the filly and couldn't get near her.

It was a remarkable performance but in saying that I do feel underwhelmed from the race. I was watching to see who was going to fly from the pack and it wasn't until the last 100 yards did I realise the filly was going to win.

tryfix · 03-10-2011 12:11am

The race was very similar to the Grand prix de Paris or Frankels Guineas win, the fast pace set by Treasure beach just left the fancied horses out on their feet. The winner was the best horse, but the placed horses would be hard pushed to confirm the form with many of the also rans should they meet again.

dave3004 · 03-10-2011 12:26am

6 pages and not once is the winner, or 2nd for that matter mentioned !

I done Snow Fairy e/w and SYT on the nose.

Had small ew nibble on Tangerine Trees though which is great.

Smarts horses are flying in Engerland so was hoping TT would be in fine fettle.

Poor Arc though. SYT and Snow Fairy to take outta it.

Slattsy · 03-10-2011 9:29am

tryfix wrote: »

The race was very similar to the Grand prix de Paris or Frankels Guineas win, the fast pace set by Treasure beach just left the fancied horses out on their feet. The winner was the best horse, but the placed horses would be hard pushed to confirm the form with many of the also rans should they meet again.

The question needs to be asked : Would Danedream confirm the form if she met SYT and Snow Fairy again?
I'd have to say no to be honest.

I can't believe obrien used an Irish Derby winner as a pacemaker, who ultimately went off too quick meaning SYT was way further back than they planned. He did well to finish where he did after coming from maybe 15 lengths down.

meriwether · 04-10-2011 1:13pm

Surely the reason that so many fancied horses ran badly, and unfancied horses ran well is that the good ground (if not firm) completely threw the formbook in the air?

I went to it, first time in Longchamp, its a magnificent event.

Morgans · 05-10-2011 3:28pm

Why wouldnt the winner confirm form over the same conditions?

Could have been called the winner from a long way out. Just the horse improving most at the right time. No fluke. Winner by a long margin. Valuable filly now, hope she will be kept in training.

Slattsy · 05-10-2011 4:44pm

Morgans wrote: »

Why wouldnt the winner confirm form over the same conditions?

Could have been called the winner from a long way out. Just the horse improving most at the right time. No fluke. Winner by a long margin. Valuable filly now, hope she will be kept in training.

Personally and just mho I dont think ANY horse ran to their form. Look at Workforce who won it last year, stuffed, even Sarafina who was unlucky last year was no where. It's pacemaker was second for god sake. Even SNA finishing as close as he did to the likes of SYT makes the form questionable. By all account those 2 are in different parishes at Ballydoyle.
Yes the winner won it well I'd simply take that form with a bag of salt.

UrbanSea · 05-10-2011 4:57pm

By no means is SYT in a different parish to SNA. It looked at one stage in the race he was going to win it,that horse has more to give I'm sure of it.

Slattsy · 05-10-2011 5:08pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

By no means is SYT in a different parish to SNA. It looked at one stage in the race he was going to win it,that horse has more to give I'm sure of it.

Ah tis yourself !
One went off 5/1 and the other at 33/1, says it all.

UrbanSea · 05-10-2011 5:32pm

SNA was about an 8/1 shot two runs ago.He'll be the ascot gold cup winner next year I rekon

tryfix · 05-10-2011 6:22pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

SNA was about an 8/1 shot two runs ago.He'll be the ascot gold cup winner next year I rekon

If Fame and Glory retires, it's almost a certainty that SNA will be Coolmores Gold Cup horse for 2012. He already looks an out an out stayer who likes firm ground and has the Class to compete in the top 1m4f GP1 races. He will be a very short price to win at Ascot if he ends up going there.

Montjeu · 05-10-2011 6:54pm

St. Nicholas Abbey was given a good prominent ride which is what he requires to show his ability. He travelled superbly but just faltered inside the last furlong or so as he lacks a strong turn of foot, similar to Seville imo.

Morgans · 05-10-2011 9:05pm

I often think that Ballydoyle gets unfairly criticised for overhyping their horses. I have seen nothing in Europe to suggest So You Think deserves the acclaim he has been getting this year. He has looked laboured in all starts.

If the race was run tomorrow, and Danedream wasnt favourite, i would have to collect wheelbarrows to get on.

Montjeu · 05-10-2011 9:58pm

He is a very good horse over 10f, but not a great horse. I don't think we will see him have a go at 12f again. When he was beaten by Rewilding over a mile and a quarter, who's primary trip was 12f, it was clear to most he wasn't the superstar as suggested from the Coolmore hype machine.

Something which I did find very ignorant in the race was sending Treasure Beach off as pacemaker like he was in the July Cup. It was bad enough letting a group 1 winner be pacemaker but the fact nobody chased due to the ridiculous pace makes it even more sickening (for lack of a better word).

nungesser · 06-10-2011 9:04pm

you said it Montjeu! what a waste of Treasure Beach! I backed him and was absolutely disgusted! looking in the paper today at the list of top flat horses in Britain an Ireland this is based on prize money and who tops the list...Treasure Beach! second in the English Derby, winner of the Irish Derby, winner of the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington! and to be thrown away as a pace maker! I have a lot of respect for Aiden O'Brien but to use this horse to set up his others or make his one dimensional jockey of a son have a shot at winning just enrages me! thanks for letting me vent, i must hand it to Frankie though for being the only jockey from our side of the channel that put his horse in suitable position during the race to have a shot at winning it.

Harry Angstrom · 06-10-2011 9:40pm

It was one of the strangest races I've seen in a long while. Coolmore have never been renowned for winning races by using pacemakers. In fact, most of the time they fack it up big-time, such as this year's Grand Prix De Paris and the Prince of Wales's at Ascot. Even going back to when Godolphin beat them in the Irish Champion Stakes with Grandera and Fantastic Light, Coolmore's ability to employ pacemakers properly is laughable. WTF was Treasure Beach going off so quick for? It's not as if So You Think was crying out for a pacemaker at his first try over a mile and a half in Europe, and Saint Nicholas Abbey had to improve to win it. Thanks to TB, the winner ended up breaking the track record. Maybe they can put that on Treasure Beach's CV when he goes to stud?

hucklebuck · 06-10-2011 10:22pm

dave3004 wrote: »

Poor Arc though. SYT and Snow Fairy to take outta it.

I think that is unfair on Galikova, if she stays in training she could be very good. Peslier stuck her head into gaps that weren't there twice and she got snatched up. At the business end Peslier started scrubbing away and was in company with and tracking Snow Fairy and Danedream when Peslier tried to follow them on the rail and ended up getting pinned in by the badly weakening Treasure Beach.

I think she would have been bang there if Peslier had followed Snow Fairy and Danedream. She lost about 6 lengths and nearly stopped at the 300 mark due to the problem with Treasure Beach.

I don't understand people taking away from Danedream, she won it well and is an improving horse at the right time.

UrbanSea · 06-10-2011 10:42pm

Why they used TB as a pacemaker is beyond me. Why not use any one of the many mediocre horses in the yard? My favourite horse this year he is

tryfix · 06-10-2011 11:49pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Why they used TB as a pacemaker is beyond me. Why not use any one of the many mediocre horses in the yard? My favourite horse this year he is

He's obviously very good at it, as it was the fastest Arc ever and it gave the yard a 4th and 5th place finish. It wont do the horses stud career any harm to show what speed he has either. Look at Cape Blanco he made the pace for Canford Cliffs and went on to win 3 Gp1s.

The three that finished in front of the O'Brien horses were fillies, so Coolmores two colts enhanced their stud potential at the expense of the rest of the potential sires in the race.

The Arc

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