So how much a part did the "Enda factor" play in FG failing to get a majority

podge3 · 26-02-2011 3:35pm #1

Now that it seems almost certain that FG will not have an overall majority, how big a part did the fact that Enda Kenny is leader play in this?

I'm not a traditional FG voter and I really wanted to vote for the party this time but I just couldn't due to Enda being leader. I am appalled that be will be our next Taoiseach negotiating for the country's future with his European counterparts. Repeating the mantra of "14 years" and "5 point plan" will not cut the mustard in Brussels.

If FG had no other choice of leader it wouldn't be so bad but why was he not booted out last year and replaced with the much more competent (IMHO) Richard Bruton. It seems that Enda's desire for power is much more important to him than the Country - or even the party.

Many, many people I spoke to feel the same way and I just saw a clip on RTE of a woman outside a polling station station saying the same thing. James Rielly isn't much better - VB made mincemeat of him the other night.

johngalway · 26-02-2011 3:39pm

I love this concept that the collapsed FF vote should naturally flow to FG. It does not follow. Some will have always gone to Sinn Fein, Labour, and Independents. That's exactly what's happening. Enda seems to be on the verge of bringing in four out of five seats in Mayo, and after the day is out may well be sitting on a higher number of seats than anticipated.

3ndahalfof6 · 26-02-2011 3:43pm

the Enda factor played loads, the facta he stayed out of the TV for most of it,

the facta he was on RTE the other night nearly fooked it all up.

meglome · 26-02-2011 3:44pm

There's little doubt that he was a factor in not getting the overall majority. That said it should be self evident to anyone that electing 'personalities' has been terrible for this country. Lacking in charisma is not a crime, it's not even bad. And let's be very clear he has a good team around him so it's not like he'll personally be doing the negotiation. So what I'm saying is not voting for FG based on the reasons you give is foolhardy.

questionmark? · 26-02-2011 3:46pm

FG are on course to record there highest result since 1982.
Enda must have run a terriable campaign :rolleyes:

Eliot Rosewater · 26-02-2011 3:46pm

johngalway wrote: »

I love this concept that the collapsed FF vote should naturally flow to FG. It does not follow.

If the RTE exit poll is right the Fianna Fail vote share will have gone down by 30%, but the Fine Gael share will only increase by about 14%. For the main opposition party who pursue much the same policies that's pretty poor.

FG members have been drooling over their high 30s results. They fail to factor in that they are the lead opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of this country. Anything less than 45% is mediocre.

Lawrence1895 · 26-02-2011 3:46pm

I would not rule it out, FG might still get the overall majority.

But on the other hand, Enda is not that charismatic, I guess

orourkeda · 26-02-2011 3:51pm

probably not as much as the biffo factor

johngalway · 26-02-2011 3:52pm

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

If the RTE exit poll is right the Fianna Fail vote share will have gone down by 30%, but the Fine Gael share will only increase by about 14%. For the main opposition party who pursue much the same policies that's pretty poor.

But, you're contradicting yourself there surely Elliot. You say that FG follow much the same policies as FF. FF got us to where we are now. If your idea was correct, they'd have continued to vote FF.

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

FG members have been drooling over their high 30s results. They fail to factor in that they are the lead opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of this country. Anything less than 45% is mediocre.

What can you do? That's the Electorate for ya. FG can't go in with each person and hold a gun to their head while they mark their card. There's a political split in the country, it's not entirely for FF and FG to carve up between them.

FF as a self styled "populist" party will have attracted voters who wouldn't naturally fit in with FG. They may be left leaning, they may be republican leaning. And there will be people who hold a certain political view who won't vote FG out of principle so may vote Independent or even stay home.

gizmo555 · 26-02-2011 3:59pm

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

If the RTE exit poll is right the Fianna Fail vote share will have gone down by 30%, but the Fine Gael share will only increase by about 14%. For the main opposition party who pursue much the same policies that's pretty poor.

Doesn't follow. Firstly, in urban areas, FF has had a strong traditional working class vote which would always be more likely to switch to Labour first. Secondly, there are many FF supporters who might not have voted for them this time, but all the same just couldn't bring themselves to vote for the old enemy instead. Their votes will have gone all over the place. In particular, I would suggest it's where many of the independents are picking up support.

podge3 · 26-02-2011 4:00pm

meglome wrote: »

There's little doubt that he was a factor in not getting the overall majority. That said it should be self evident to anyone that electing 'personalities' has been terrible for this country. Lacking in charisma is not a crime, it's not even bad. And let's be very clear he has a good team around him so it's not like he'll personally be doing the negotiation. So what I'm saying is not voting for FG based on the reasons you give is foolhardy.

I would argue the contrary.

It seems like quite a lot of FG deputies and a large slice of the electorate have no confidence in Enda Kenny - and with good cause IMHO. He was unwilling or unable to take part in some of the media debates. Those that he did take part in, he came across as wooden, with no charisma and poor grasp of economics.

The deputy leader isn't much better. Granted, there is R. Bruton and Micheal Noonan but the Taoiseach is the main man after all.

questionmark? wrote: »

FG are on course to record there highest result since 1982.
Enda must have run a terriable campaign :rolleyes:

Given the current economic circumstances, I think FG was on course to do very well irrespective of who the leader was. My point is that they could have done much better if it not for Enda.

Inquitus · 26-02-2011 4:03pm

Don't rule a FG Majority out yet, if FF transfer mainly to FG on elimination they are still in with a shout imo.

Firetrap · 26-02-2011 4:15pm

I don't think the Enda factor came into it. I'm wondering if perhaps a lot of people started thinking that it would be better to have a FG/Labour coalition with one marking the other?

Syferus · 26-02-2011 4:17pm

Zero.

De Dannan · 26-02-2011 4:17pm

FG would have almost certainly got close to OM, much closer than they are now
Kenny was a drag on the vote for ages

johngalway · 26-02-2011 4:23pm

De Dannan wrote: »

FG would have almost certainly got close to OM, much closer than they are now
Kenny was a drag on the vote for ages

It may be a different picture when all the seats are counted. On radio today I've heard various estimates of FG seat numbers ranging from as low as 70 to as high as 80.

I'm not going to guess what they'll end up with. As it'd be a very hard ask for all the transfer permutations to break for FG. Gonna wait and see how it pans out.

Fr Tod Umptious · 26-02-2011 4:39pm

According to a piece I saw on RTE about the exit pole, party policies and local issues were much more important issues than party leaders for voters. Thus I don't think Enda denied FG an overall majority

irishh_bob · 26-02-2011 5:16pm

podge3 wrote: »

Now that it seems almost certain that FG will not have an overall majority, how big a part did the fact that Enda Kenny is leader play in this?

I'm not a traditional FG voter and I really wanted to vote for the party this time but I just couldn't due to Enda being leader. I am appalled that be will be our next Taoiseach negotiating for the country's future with his European counterparts. Repeating the mantra of "14 years" and "5 point plan" will not cut the mustard in Brussels.

If FG had no other choice of leader it wouldn't be so bad but why was he not booted out last year and replaced with the much more competent (IMHO) Richard Bruton. It seems that Enda's desire for power is much more important to him than the Country - or even the party.

Many, many people I spoke to feel the same way and I just saw a clip on RTE of a woman outside a polling station station saying the same thing. James Rielly isn't much better - VB made mincemeat of him the other night.

it is the sole reason they did not achieve an overall majority , gormless enda is what made so many swing voters think twice , considering the absolutley astonishing collapse of the fianna fail vote , fine gael have just done ok , nothing less than an overall majority was acceptable

femur61 · 26-02-2011 5:27pm

questionmark? wrote: »

FG are on course to record there highest result since 1982.
Enda must have run a terriable campaign :rolleyes:

But most people had a protest vote I voted for FG but many who did as well also voted Labour because they can't stand Enda. I

Snake Plisken · 26-02-2011 5:31pm

will he see the full term out as leader or will we see a revolt in 2 to 3 years to remove him?

Eliot Rosewater · 26-02-2011 6:04pm

johngalway wrote: »

But, you're contradicting yourself there surely Elliot. You say that FG follow much the same policies as FF. FF got us to where we are now. If your idea was correct, they'd have continued to vote FF.

In broadly ideological terms FF and FG are similar. But Fianna Fail aren't being punished for their broad ideology, as it is now. People are not voting for FF because they see them as a corrupt party that, for some reason or another, caused the bust. FG are obviously not affected by these issues.

johngalway wrote: »

What can you do? That's the Electorate for ya. FG can't go in with each person and hold a gun to their head while they mark their card. There's a political split in the country, it's not entirely for FF and FG to carve up between them.

That's just passing the buck. People are looking for leadership. In the past weeks many people didn't have a clue who to vote for. There was no single party that screamed "vote me". If FG had got their act together a year ago they could have easily been that party and capitalised on FF's demise.

I think you're really failing to see the big picture. Fine Gael were the lead opposition party (by a hefty margin) to the most unpopular government in 90 years, but yet they're now barely managing to get one third of old FF Green votes.

NewHillel · 26-02-2011 6:10pm

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

If the RTE exit poll is right the Fianna Fail vote share will have gone down by 30%, but the Fine Gael share will only increase by about 14%. For the main opposition party who pursue much the same policies that's pretty poor.

FG members have been drooling over their high 30s results. They fail to factor in that they are the lead opposition party to the most unpopular government in the history of this country. Anything less than 45% is mediocre.

I agree that it is a mediocre result - without question Enda was the "drag factor".

johngalway · 26-02-2011 6:11pm

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I think you're really failing to see the big picture. Fine Gael were the lead opposition party (by a hefty margin) to the most unpopular government in 90 years, but yet they're now barely managing to get one third of old FF Green votes.

Well, I'm afraid I still disagree

To do the above FG would have needed to become FF, a populist party. I don't believe they are that and I don't believe they want to be that.

FF promised all things to all wo/men. There were those in FF naturally left who would never vote FG. There are republicans in FF who would never vote FG. And there is the wobbling group on the fringe of the FF core who may have gone to either of the above or Independent.

I don't believe FG could have had an honest manifesto & campaign AND have attracted all those voters at the same time.

It should be remembered, FF got 42% in the last GE. And they had a lot of money to throw at voters.

What did FG have? The truth, we're in the sh1t, it's going to be that way for some time, but we'll get out of it.

45% of people vote for that? Not to my mind.

Snakeblood · 26-02-2011 6:14pm

johngalway wrote: »

I love this concept that the collapsed FF vote should naturally flow to FG. It does not follow. Some will have always gone to Sinn Fein, Labour, and Independents. That's exactly what's happening. Enda seems to be on the verge of bringing in four out of five seats in Mayo, and after the day is out may well be sitting on a higher number of seats than anticipated.

There's not much difference ideologically between FF and FG, it makes sense that there's transference between them. Apart from people being stupid about family histories of voting/people being stupid.
They're far closer ideologically than Sinn Fein or Labour are to FF.

johngalway · 26-02-2011 6:16pm

Snakeblood wrote: »

There's not much difference ideologically between FF and FG, it makes sense that there's transference between them. Apart from people being stupid about family histories of voting/people being stupid.
They're far closer ideologically than Sinn Fein or Labour are to FF.

There is transference, but not as much as people are suggesting.

K-9 · 26-02-2011 6:21pm

Considering the early Labour push collapsed and FF didn't recover at all, it's a FG failure.

Last overall majority was Lynch and FF after probably the second most unpopular Government ever. This was ideal territory for an over all majority.

I'd say most people just put up with Kenny, but the couple of percent Bruton would have gained, would have put them over the line.

chicken fingers · 26-02-2011 6:28pm

could FG make a government without labour but with some of the culchie indos?

johngalway · 26-02-2011 6:29pm

chicken fingers wrote: »

could FG make a government without labour but with some of the culchie indos?

Not sure yet, depends on how the numbers fare out. The closer they get to 80 seats (or above) the bigger that prospect becomes.

loike · 26-02-2011 6:30pm

i didnt vote them because of him!!!!

questionmark? · 26-02-2011 7:09pm

loike wrote: »

i didnt vote them because of him!!!!

I'm sorry but what a stupid reason not to vote for a party if this was the only reason. Have you not seeing where bertie and cowen have left us just because they can talk in public! I am a Fine Gael supporter Enda Kenny just so happens to be the leader but I dont support them just for him I honestly think the FG team is the best choice at this moment in time to try and attempt to get this country out of this mess we are in. Although I fear a FG/Lab coalition and this is not because of Eamon Gilmore but rather their policies.

Edit: I dont stick to one party either like the FF grey parade but rather whats best at the time.

loike · 26-02-2011 7:18pm

questionmark? wrote: »

I'm sorry but what a stupid reason not to vote for a party if this was the only reason. Have you not seeing where bertie and cowen have left us just because they can talk in public! I am a Fine Gael supporter Enda Kenny just so happens to be the leader but I dont support them just for him I honestly think the FG team is the best choice at this moment in time to try and attempt to get this country out of this mess we are in. Although I fear a FG/Lab coalition and this is not because of Eamon Gilmore but rather their policies.

Edit: I dont stick to one party either like the FF grey parade but rather whats best at the time.

oh well its my vote

:):)
i think they will be the exact same as ff

So how much a part did the "Enda factor" play in FG failing to get a majority

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