Aussie dollar falling

ifeelill · 17-08-2013 11:13am

Hoboo wrote: »

The whole oz economy is gonna go in the next 18 months, shortly after the Canadian. All propped up on the derivitives market and inflated housing market....mark my words.

I have your words marked, now what do i do ?

sin_city · 18-08-2013 11:56pm

ifeelill wrote: »

I have your words marked, now what do i do ?

Buy some physical gold or silver.

Go to a distributor of the Perth Mint.....or......wait and stand in solidarity with the people that lost a lot of their money in Cypriot banks

ifeelill · 19-08-2013 12:05am

sin_city wrote: »

Buy some physical gold or silver.

Go to a distributor of the Perth Mint.....or......wait and stand in solidarity with the people that lost a lot of their money in Cypriot banks

Hey hey hey now, a lot of people lost money in the Irish banks as well, they just weren't bond holders :pac::pac:

jank · 19-08-2013 4:57am

sin_city wrote: »

Buy some physical gold or silver.

Go to a distributor of the Perth Mint.....or......wait and stand in solidarity with the people that lost a lot of their money in Cypriot banks

The devil's metals. You have to be seriously on the ball or a serious idiot if you are going to buy a physical metal you know nothing about of a whim on the internet. There are plenty of other hedges out there than silver or gold.

the flananator · 19-08-2013 6:14am

Seems to be fluctuating between .68 and .69 over the last week. Will be interesting to see if it pushes back over .70

sin_city · 19-08-2013 6:34am

jank wrote: »

The devil's metals. You have to be seriously on the ball or a serious idiot if you are going to buy a physical metal you know nothing about of a whim on the internet. There are plenty of other hedges out there than silver or gold.

Really? What else is outside the system, if the system collapses?

Are you talking about works or art or other items which store value?

Why would you be an idiot?

Silver is half the price it was in 1980.

When you say "you know nothing about"...do you mean that YOU, know nothing about it.

If you study economic history you would see that gold and especially silver are great investments.

So....what are the other investments that are outside the system?

I mean, sure I'd buy a cheap property if I had that type of cash but I doubt anyone here is throwing around money like that.

By the way Silver went up 20% this month and 14% last week.

If you bought the shares in the largest silver mining company CCU(which I did) last week you'd have made more than a 50% profit.

If you bought them last month....90% profit.

danotroy · 19-08-2013 6:52am

The guardian are taking a leaf out of hooboo's book.

cnocbui · 19-08-2013 7:56pm

sin_city wrote: »

Really? What else is outside the system, if the system collapses?

When was the last time you personally remember the 'system' collapsing? It hasn't done so while I have been on the planet or during the time my father was either.

Why would you be an idiot? Silver is half the price it was in 1980. If you study economic history you would see that gold and especially silver are great investments.

If silver is half the price it was in 1980, that means anyone who bought it then has lost their shirt, if you factor in inflation, Not my idea of a great investment.

sin_city · 20-08-2013 12:14am

cnocbui wrote: »

When was the last time you personally remember the 'system' collapsing? It hasn't done so while I have been on the planet or during the time my father was either. If silver is half the price it was in 1980, that means anyone who bought it then has lost their shirt, if you factor in inflation, Not my idea of a great investment.

System collapsing? Well, there's been hyper inflation in Zimbabwe and Argentina very recently. Germany before World War 2 (this is why they are not as keen on money printing as in the US and why we have austerity in Europe) and even Spain when they used silver as their currency. Further back it has happened all the time. The difference this time is that every country will be affected because it has not happened the reserve currency of the world before.

Silver was also $50 last year. If you don't think it is a good investment at $20, when is it a good investment?

What is your idea of a good investment? Sell low, buy high :pac:

jank · 20-08-2013 2:55pm

sin_city wrote: »

Silver is half the price it was in 1980.

Perhaps you never heard of the Hunt brothers but plenty of other people have.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

Silver is also half the price now then it was over a year ago, doesn't mean we should buy it.

[/QUOTE]
When you say "you know nothing about"...do you mean that YOU, know nothing about it.[/QUOTE]

Nothing about what, making guaranteed money buying silver and gold? I have heard all about this before and will again in the future, only I only ever hear about it when people are making paper profits, never when I hear they are making actual loses.

[/QUOTE]
If you study economic history you would see that gold and especially silver are great investments. [/QUOTE]

Eh, no they are not. Gold is a hedge against inflation, nothing else. The S&P 500 has out performed gold in every long term window, consistently!!

[/QUOTE]
So....what are the other investments that are outside the system?
[/QUOTE]

What is this system you are referring to?

[/QUOTE]
I mean, sure I'd buy a cheap property if I had that type of cash but I doubt anyone here is throwing around money like that.[/QUOTE]

Around half of all property sold in Ireland the past year were cash only purchases. Yes, people are throwing money around like that.

sin_city wrote: »

By the way Silver went up 20% this month and 14% last week.

If you bought the shares in the largest silver mining company CCU(which I did) last week you'd have made more than a 50% profit.

Thats great, so when are you going to sell?

ifeelill · 20-08-2013 9:44pm

danotroy wrote: »

The guardian are taking a leaf out of hooboo's book.

The guardian are trying to sell newspapers, wounder what hooboo's problem is

sin_city · 21-08-2013 12:15am

jank wrote: »

Perhaps you never heard of the Hunt brothers but plenty of other people have.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

Silver is also half the price now then it was over a year ago, doesn't mean we should buy it.

When you say "you know nothing about"...do you mean that YOU, know nothing about it.[/QUOTE]

Nothing about what, making guaranteed money buying silver and gold? I have heard all about this before and will again in the future, only I only ever hear about it when people are making paper profits, never when I hear they are making actual loses.

[/QUOTE]
If you study economic history you would see that gold and especially silver are great investments. [/QUOTE]

Eh, no they are not. Gold is a hedge against inflation, nothing else. The S&P 500 has out performed gold in every long term window, consistently!!

[/QUOTE]
So....what are the other investments that are outside the system?
[/QUOTE]

What is this system you are referring to? ---- THE PETRO DOLLAR SYSTEM

[/QUOTE]
I mean, sure I'd buy a cheap property if I had that type of cash but I doubt anyone here is throwing around money like that.[/QUOTE]

Around half of all property sold in Ireland the past year were cash only purchases. Yes, people are throwing money around like that.

Because house prices are low. So is gold and silver.

All your graph shows to me is that both gold and silver are undervalued.

There wasn't a lot of price for gold to grow since it was pegged at a set price for ages.

Look, I'll make it simple. This next graph shows an investment of $10,000 in gold vs s and p since 2001....

Gold has grown from $300 an ounce to where it is today. 400% to 500%

Thats great, so when are you going to sell?[/QUOTE]

Sold already and re-invested the profits.

hussey · 21-08-2013 12:47am

agghhh knocking around the 67.5c mark this morning .... balls I am heading back to ireland in a few weeks, was hoping for it to hit 70c

Kiith · 21-08-2013 12:59am

I'm going to transfer my tax back to Ireland as soon as it (hopefully) goes back towards the 70c mark. Whether or not that happens is another matter.

jank · 21-08-2013 5:24am

sin_city wrote: »

When ...
... profits.

You have contradicted yourself in the post above. First of all you state that that gold is undervalued so that is a reason to buy... then you state that it has increased by up to 500%... so that is another reason to buy as lots of money was made. Which is it? The herd mentality is what gets people in the end. Never underestimate the stupidity of people and money.

There are two types of investing. Firm foundation theory where you invest in an instrument that has an intrinsic value or Castle in the Air theory where you take advantage of human behavior and buy before the herd. It doesn't matter what you pay for something as there will always be someone there to pay more for it later on. That is how bubbles form e.g. tech bubble, housing bubble, commodites bubble. You can make money using both no doubt but the later is much risker and people end up losing lots of money. Not for me but maybe for you.

http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Firm_Foundation_Theory
http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory

sin_city · 21-08-2013 6:16am

jank wrote: »

You have contradicted yourself in the post above. First of all you state that that gold is undervalued so that is a reason to buy... then you state that it has increased by up to 500%... so that is another reason to buy as lots of money was made. Which is it? The herd mentality is what gets people in the end. Never underestimate the stupidity of people and money.

There are two types of investing. Firm foundation theory where you invest in an instrument that has an intrinsic value or Castle in the Air theory where you take advantage of human behavior and buy before the herd. It doesn't matter what you pay for something as there will always be someone there to pay more for it later on. That is how bubbles form e.g. tech bubble, housing bubble, commodites bubble. You can make money using both no doubt but the later is much risker and people end up losing lots of money. Not for me but maybe for you.

http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Firm_Foundation_Theory
http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory

The vast majority of the growth in gold and silver in the last 10 years was well before the expansion of the money supply since the 2008 crash.

Gold and silver have consolidated. They are still very undervalued.

Forget all that though mate....Did you buy the share I told you about, CCU?

Up 18% today....your welcome mate.

jank · 21-08-2013 6:53am

sin_city wrote: »

The vast majority of the growth in gold and silver in the last 10 years was well before the expansion of the money supply since the 2008 crash. .

Which could indicate another bubble. Why has gold come down 30% from its peak and silver 50% from its peak?

sin_city wrote: »

Gold and silver have consolidated. They are still very undervalued.

Both are falling, if that is your term for consolidating then fair enough.

sin_city wrote: »

Forget all that though mate....Did you buy the share I told you about, CCU?

Up 18% today....your welcome mate.

And still 50% lower than it was at the start of year.... How much have you lost?
Buy low sell high, that is all you are doing but on average you will not make more money than someone who takes a longer view. What you are doing is trading one step away from outright gambling. I prefer to invest for the longer term.

sin_city · 21-08-2013 7:12am

Ok mate, we'll agree to disagree. I made a tidy little profit on CCU. Bought at 10 cents, sold at 18 cents, rebought again at 14 and now it's 22 cents.....

Silver went up more in one week last week than it has in the last 5 years.

Consolidate...I mean bottom out and start a slow decent before a sharp increase.

You don't understand the fundamentals behind why gold, silver....oil and other commodities are going to increase a lot in price in the next 5 years in my opinion.

I'm not going to try to give you my opinion. I've made my mind up on the issue and so have you. Only time will tell.

pa_ · 21-08-2013 1:50pm

Sin stop referring to fundamentals, your investment advice is 5 years out of date and sounds like regurgitated pub talk at this stage. Smart folk got out of gold a year ago and into better other hedges and will continue the move into productive assets as the deleveraging process continues. I don't even follow this stuff that closely but from my point of view you need to come to terms with the fact that gold wont rise exponentially forever like the picture you posted implies - if it has already shown a massive increase then the party is over - move on.

res ipsa · 21-08-2013 2:40pm

Would all the w anchors who are talking about stuff other than the Ozzie falling relative to other fiat currencies please puss off this thread & create ure own metal headbanger & thrash thread?
Thanks.

jank · 21-08-2013 2:40pm

Mate, unless you are a professional precious metals trader don't talk about fundamentals as if you know something others don't. Whatever about gold I wouldn't touch silver with a barge pole.
It isn't call the Devils Metal for nothing.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/silver-the-devils-metal/2013/08/15/

massdebater · 21-08-2013 2:59pm

Yeah, seriously lads. I'm following this thread to get up to date info on the Aussie dollar and every update I get is about gold and silver. Maybe take that conversation to a different thread/forum and keep this one for Aussie dollar info.

hussey · 21-08-2013 10:29pm

[Mod] 100% agree with above. There are money and finance forums. Please no more silver and gold talk.
I've been mainly offline this week so should have nipped this in the bud sooner

jank · 22-08-2013 1:07am

I agree, just highlighting the fallacy that one can be rich in a fortnight on an asset class that is highly volatile.

Feds minutes released last night which is putting the AUD under lots of pressure. Still waiting for my .70 + cent exchange rate

cnocbui · 22-08-2013 9:51am

BBC news today - China 'China manufacturing in sharp rebound'.

jank · 23-08-2013 4:02am

Em, you deleted threads talking about the AUD?

hussey · 23-08-2013 4:11am

Mod My mistake, I deleted a few more posts ignoring instructions, two posts accidentally deleted - fixed now.

jank · 23-08-2013 4:15pm

Hovering about 67.5 at the moment. Hopefully Greece or some other EU country will have bad headlines over the next week or two. Hope too for good news from China! Got to push it over that .70 cent mark!

res ipsa · 24-08-2013 12:57pm

The Ozzie is at record highs....

Against the Indian Rupee:D

danotroy · 28-08-2013 7:08pm

The dollar has been falling against the us dollar quite about over the last few months. Should I be changing my dollars into USA dollars now or should i wait, what factors are at play?

catbear · 29-08-2013 5:13am

danotroy wrote: »

The dollar has been falling against the us dollar quite about over the last few months. Should I be changing my dollars into USA dollars now or should i wait, what factors are at play?

The US has being creating money to support its economy, that money has been flowing into the asian markets looking for a greater return than back in the US. One direct of way of investing in China was via australia, hence the Aus$ ascent on the Chinese boom and now its descent.

In response to strengthening in the US economy that money creation scheme is being reduced (tapering), the Federal reserve mandate was use all means to reduce US unemployment to under 7% (there are many disagreements about what now constitutes full employment and whether intervention rather than debt destruction is leading a recovery but that's a debate for another forum)

China was the driving force of the Aus mining boom but China is now trying to develop its domestic economy to move away from weakening export growth. As 38% of Aus exports are to China any slowdown has a big effect.

As more Aus mines come into operation increased supply puts downward pressure on ore prices, plus the collapse of the rupee makes Indian ore a cheaper alternative.

If you're staying long term all this means is that it may be time to start thinking about inflation, maybe consider snapping up a diesel car or reconsider taking that job with the long commute!

I'm inclined to believe the aus$ will get weaker, I've been sending money to € all year and as I'm uncommitted to australia I'll continue to do so until either work finishes up or we move on.

If Australia suffers its own financial panic then the pacific peso will tank, it went to €.50 back in 08. Currently Australian banks are the most exposed to property debt in the world. Feeling lucky?

http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/exposure-to-housing-could-come-back-to-bite-us-20130402-2h42v.html

sin_city · 29-08-2013 8:15am

Yes, due the fact that people believe the US economy is improving, money is leaving commodity markets.

The US economy is not on the mend and the 10 year T note is increasing. I don't believe there will be a Taper and even if there is they are still printing a huge amount of money. Whether it's 75 billion or whatever.

Anyway, people believe the US is improving so the sheep are leaving the AUD.

I would be surprised to see it hit 50 cents in euros but who knows...60 is possible but I would say 70 is more likely for me.

amg-slurp · 29-08-2013 10:25am

For someone who is moving to Oz in November for a year or so, is now a good time to transfer funds to my Oz bank account? Or will it get any lower?
Advise? (Other than don't go to Oz :O )

c0rk3r · 29-08-2013 11:02am

Well fúck me.

I needed to go home a few months ago when the exchange rate was 0.74 or 76. I may be heading home permanently in the coming months (i say permanently but i mean jumping ship to another country like a nomad). So it looks like in that space of time with the savings ive made here that ive lost a couple of thousand in the exchange rate. Well... if i had of moved my funds a few months ago.

On the bright side i have 85euro at the end of my bed which is worth a lot more in dollars now, Silver lining and all that

sin_city · 30-08-2013 12:17am

amg-slurp wrote: »

For someone who is moving to Oz in November for a year or so, is now a good time to transfer funds to my Oz bank account? Or will it get any lower?
Advise? (Other than don't go to Oz :O )

Why don't you do 50% now and 50% later?

I has dropped a lot so you've saved a lot of cash already.

sin_city · 04-09-2013 3:12am

Back up to 69 cents from 67 a few days ago.

the flananator · 04-09-2013 3:21am

Pretty good news. Is it linked to the strong manufacturing data coming out of China? Could we see it rise over .70 once more?

purcela · 04-09-2013 3:25am

At 0.6871 now on Currencyfair

catbear · 04-09-2013 3:28am

the flananator wrote: »

Pretty good news. Is it linked to the strong manufacturing data coming out of China? Could we see it rise over .70 once more?

Don't know, few believe what news comes out of China. One theory I read was that currencies like the Rupee devaluing has seen a regional flow back into the Aus dollar.
Here's hoping for .70

mise_me_fein3 · 04-09-2013 4:03am

The RBA held rates. That's the primary reason

jank · 04-09-2013 4:30pm

Also, the libs are about to be elected into power, expect an increase of economic activity and a boast to the stock market as a result in the short term anyway.

sin_city · 05-09-2013 3:11am

Edging above 69.5. If it breaks 70 cents I think I will consolidate

catbear · 10-09-2013 6:40am

Nearly at .70!

Good news reports from China and Fed tapering looking less likely, I wonder how much upside we'll get. I'd love if it held in there until I'm cashing out my super!

sin_city · 10-09-2013 11:56pm

Fed is never gonna taper. Wud be good to see the Aussie get to 75 cents again. Still hard to know what will happen. I expect it will stay above 70 cents for a while

Timistry · 16-09-2013 12:24pm

Rumours are that the US will start to decrese the amount of bonds it is buying. What effect will that have on the value of the dollar vs. the euro?

Timistry · 16-09-2013 12:25pm

Rumours are that the US will start to decrease the amount of bonds it is buying. What effect will that have on the value of the dollar vs. the euro?

catbear · 16-09-2013 2:15pm

Depends on where you heard the rumour, was in a pub or at a horse fair?

If they taper (new fed chairman candidate seems slash happy) then Aussie dollar may drop but it may also rise as Australia becomes safe haven in asia; see stories about Chinese buying up Sydney property.

I pretty sure it will rain in Perth tomorrow.

Edit to add: Larry Summers has ruled himself out of the Fed race, maybe the impending WWIII is driving cash this way, f**ked if I know!

sin_city · 16-09-2013 2:47pm

You can't say you're not going to Taper because you can't say endless money printing is the policy.....even if it is the policy.

I don't think they will taper. Just as people realize the war propaganda against Syria is BS, they are also realizing the "recovery" in the US is too.

The markets are all messed up with so much uncertainty but the AUD should stay at least where it is against the USD. Against the Euro....hard to know but I as I said it seems to have found a level off area around .70cents

catbear · 16-09-2013 3:35pm

sin_city wrote: »

Against the Euro....hard to know but I as I said it seems to have found a level off area around .70cents

Suits me if you're are right but I still think the Aussie $ is due another drop although it's probably postponed for now thanks again to China: although this time it's indirectly.

the flananator · 19-09-2013 9:40am

Its reached the golden .70

Time to cash out, or will it continue to rise?

Aussie dollar falling

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