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General FPL Chat 2014/15 MOD WARNING POST 1839
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This is me !Iused2likebusts wrote: »I'm delighted it's over had a great nights sleep last night no transfer permutations running through my brain. Would love to give the game up but know its not going to happen.
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Iused2likebusts wrote: »play off final today and copa america in june
Well can I really enjoy the play-off today though unless Norwich win?
Although I don't think Mickey Turner will be with them if they do get promoted which would hurt, really hurt. He's been on loan at Fulham for the last few months
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one lesson I really learnt this year is hits mainly don't work
evsn the final week I did one for the craic
cambiasso and Kane to bolasie and ulloa.......
Final week I wasnt gonna take a hit as it had to pay off there and then. Funnily enough, if I had taken the hit, I would've had Walcott and it would have paid off. Instead I got Lukaku for Kane which didn't help at all 0 -
stephenl15 wrote: »Final week I wasnt gonna take a hit as it had to pay off there and then. Funnily enough, if I had taken the hit, I would've had Walcott and it would have paid off. Instead I got Lukaku for Kane which didn't help at all
lesson I have already learned
never sign lukaku he will let you down 0 -
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stephenl15 wrote: »I already learned that lesson. Then I thought of his final day heroics a couple of years ago v. United! Thought he could be the anti Ivanovic :P
lesson #3 sign Ivanovic early or not at all 0 -
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I'd prefer someone who likes football to win
Analysts are going to ruin the feckin game so they are! Just wait a few years time the whole top ten will all be super kids who've written custom algorithms to pick their players! They'll never know the joy of taking a hit to sign Charlie Adam though.0 -
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Analysts are going to ruin the feckin game so they are! Just wait a few years time the whole top ten will all be super kids who've written custom algorithms to pick their players! They'll never know the joy of taking a hit to sign Charlie Adam though.
If next season is as boring as this season I'll probably turn into one of these nerds and stop watching football
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If next season is as boring as this season I'll probably turn into one of these nerds and stop watching football
No doubt a site will pop up that takes it one step further than FFFix and will actually make the transfers for you too so you just put in your password and you don't even need to log in all year the system makes the changes and no one ever finishes outside the top 10% ever.0 -
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No doubt a site will pop up that takes it one step further than FFFix and will actually make the transfers for you too so you just put in your password and you don't even need to log in all year the system makes the changes and no one ever finishes outside the top 10% ever.I checked out the FFFix, but to be honest I found it to be 1 step too far (too intrusive and taking all the fun element out of the game)There is no point! But that is what people do to get ahead. Every other online game has to deal with bots only a matter of time until FPL does too.
I think you're over-exaggerating things lads. This year winner says he doesn't watch football but that doesn't mean he doesn't know it. And anyway we don't have to believe everything he says. It's pretty self-important to come out and say "yah I won the game but ya know I don't watch football, I'm just using a clever method blah blah blah...". And as someone mentioned his past history is fairly average. What I'd be interested in is to know how much the leaders of FFS Hall of Fame like/watch/follow football. Because these guys have a history of performing at the game.
I, for example, rarely watch PL games because it's not my domestic league, I have equivalent interests in other sports (rugby, handball, etc...) and well there's only 24h in a day. But I saw every single premium player play several times. And my interest in the sport and my knowledge of the game make me roughly know which are the players that are FPL-compatible. Of course I'm always lost with promotted teams because I have no knowledge of the bottom leagues. And well this forum would turn any single player into a good one :cool:.
Oh and about FFX & bots, again you're exaggerating. FFX is a great stats site. But and I insist on the word it is a HINDSIGHT site. The transfers they suggest are a farce. The pts prediction from your current team over the next couple of GWS is equivalently comical. It's OK if you don't really care. The error margin will suit you. But if you do care, every single point is precious (we've all experienced it with different fortunes on the last GW) so their predictions/suggestions are absolutely meaningless.
Also don't forget the importance of the captain pick. I'd love to know how often this season the most popular captain pick (i.e. the one every single stats site would recommend) failed. I'd say it's at best 50/50.
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I'm not sure it'll work for FPL. I don't have enough computer knowledge but how would they do? They'd have to model stats but again it'll be past stats, so all hindsight. They'd probably model the bookies predictions. But how often do the bookies actually get it right? This year I gave more credit to the CS odds and goalscorers odds but it didn't strike me as something very reliable. Again I'd guess it's about 50/50Basically software thats programmed to play games more efficiently than humans. Chess and backgammon are the obvious one computers dominate at. They're getting better at more complex games too if you look up claudico vs brains an AI took on some of the best HU human poker players. The humans crushed it but it's only a matter of time until computers are ahead at complex games like that.
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I'm not sure it'll work for FPL. I don't have enough computer knowledge but how would they do? They'd have to model stats but again it'll be past stats, so all hindsight. They'd probably model the bookies predictions. But how often do the bookies actually get it right? This year I gave more credit to the CS odds and goalscorers odds but it didn't strike me as something very reliable. Again I'd guess it's about 50/50.
The bookies get it right pretty often in fairness that's how they survive! They obviously give themselves some margin for error but an FPL programme could be designed similar to the modeling they use to set the odds.
I don't see why anyone would do it but people are weird!
Edit: actually I would imagine football management software would already be way further ahead than the sort of thing needed for FPL would need to be. You would probably find 38 weeks just wouldn't be long enough I don't think anyone would think the best FPL managers are the ones that win it's the ones at the top of the HOF that are most impressive.0 -
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Not quiteYeah but what exactly does it mean to "get it right"? Is it binary? Like Yes or No? Because what they give is a percentage of chance that the CS will happen...
I mean what do you consider right in the GW38 predictions?
Newcastle & Man City? Palace & United?
But with equivalent odds they got Arsenal; Chelsea, Leicester, Villa & Pool wrong.
So up to 3.1 (if I'm not mistaken a 3.1 CS odd is about 25% chances they concede?) they got 4 right and 5 wrong. Not even 50%. More like 70%
Odds of 2 is 50/50 chance (slightly more likely not to happen given margins). So the bookies were saying all teams had a greater than 50% of scoring. Makes sense given that it was the last day of the season.0 -
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Yeah yeah I know, I probably wasn't very clear in what I meant. My point was not about how bookies are successful in their own work, my point was the use of their odds for a reliable FPL-prediction model. And I feel it's close to useless because the margins are not designed for FPL.You can't look at it from a one week sample. Bookies getting it right means long term the odds they set tend to be within the margin that it makes it profitable for them to offer.
Just because something didn't happen that a bookie predicted would doesn't mean they were wrong that is wary variance comes in. There is a lot of variance on FPL it is something most people don't realise.
The bold part in spock's post is a great example of my point (I know it's only 1 GW but it was e decisive one for many). So for GW38 there was no CS predicted. But 7 did happen. How do you implement this into a model? I feel that'd make the model super-complicated and sometimes overcomplicating programming doesn't give you more reliable results (I experienced it a bit during my PhD). Anyway, I'm probably getting into the dark side of FSA here debating the uselessness of a FPL bot :rolleyes: :pac:...Not quite
More like 70%
Odds of 2 is 50/50 chance (slightly more likely not to happen given margins). So the bookies were saying all teams had a greater than 50% of scoring. Makes sense given that it was the last day of the season.
Ah right...
Just so that I understand it. Isn't a 1/1 odd a 50/50 chance too? How do you relate fractional odds with these ones?
Think I read someone saying a 5/2 odd = 3.5 odd. So thought that a 3 odd was a 3/1 and 3/1 is 25% chance right?0 -
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Yeah 3/1 is 25% sorry. In your first post (and maybe it was a typo) you said 3/1 CS is 25% chance of conceding, it's actually 25% of keeping a clean sheet (ie not conceding)
To go from fractional to decimal you turn the fraction into a decimal and add 1.
eg (as you said) 5/2 = 2.5 + 1 = 3.5
The probability is 1 divided by the decimal odds.
eg odds of 3.1 = 1/3.1 = 0.32 = 32%
Thanks for the explanations. Yeah I got myself confused in my first post. I think I expected the CS odds to be higher so when I realised it was only 25% I thought I got it upside down and assumed it was the other way round... 0 -
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