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The Importance of Discipline/Logging

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  • 03-03-2015 10:33pm
    #1
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭


    Lo Folks,

    Just curious as to who logs their bets and how they deal with discipline? There is nothing worse as to having gut feelings and backing, and then losing, further more when you don't bother backing at all and your gut feeling works out.

    E.G I fancied Under 2.5 In all premiership games tonight. Didn't bother backing anything pre game as to be honest, sometimes I think when something should go a certain with it tends to not go that way at all. I.e, Aston Villa could have came out an won 3-0! Nobody would expect it, but Law of Averages etc, and it will happen eventually.

    So what do you to do increase your discipline? I'm Currently down since January/Feb mostly down to Discipline. I got stung a bit when City deceided to go through a phase of being pretty sh!t and cost me a bit.

    With Cheltenham coming up I expect to be down a bit more, but I'll count that seperatly as I'll bet for interest and probably with a few drinks, I'll still log it, but won't be to fussed if down!

    So What do you to do increase your Discipline? Especially when going to say a pub to watch a match with mates and you want to fancy a bet for interest, I tend to think that's when the loses start to add up. Every 5,10,20 all adds up.


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    #2
    Sgt Pepper 64
    Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    Lo Folks,

    Just curious as to who logs their bets and how they deal with discipline? There is nothing worse as to having gut feelings and backing, and then losing, further more when you don't bother backing at all and your gut feeling works out.

    E.G I fancied Under 2.5 In all premiership games tonight. Didn't bother backing anything pre game as to be honest, sometimes I think when something should go a certain with it tends to not go that way at all. I.e, Aston Villa could have came out an won 3-0! Nobody would expect it, but Law of Averages etc, and it will happen eventually.

    So what do you to do increase your discipline? I'm Currently down since January/Feb mostly down to Discipline. I got stung a bit when City deceided to go through a phase of being pretty sh!t and cost me a bit.

    With Cheltenham coming up I expect to be down a bit more, but I'll count that seperatly as I'll bet for interest and probably with a few drinks, I'll still log it, but won't be to fussed if down!

    So What do you to do increase your Discipline? Especially when going to say a pub to watch a match with mates and you want to fancy a bet for interest, I tend to think that's when the loses start to add up. Every 5,10,20 all adds up.

    Very good post. I've discovered the hard way that discipline is paramount to betting success.
    Common mistakes I've made is making the same bet twice, not cashing out when I've already made 100% or more in the hope I will get that final figure. Too many silly 1, 5 euro bets that like you say, add up. Not doing research and causally accepting the bookie odds means the favourite is likely to win when in reality they are very close H2H or league position.
    Betting everyday instead of having a day or a week off. Chasing losses.
    Doing big bets, 5 or more accums when single, double and trebles are a much better idea.

    Keeping a spreadsheet is an excellent idea as is having a system.

    For your pub night out with mates, I would suggest use a separate account with not much in it, away from your main account


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    #3
    inforfun
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    I should take up the discipline to just bet on Dutch football (players).
    It is the only league i do real research on, where no one can say anything to influence me (well, not here on boards in any case).

    So imo, your discipline should be in where you bet on. it is very tempting to bet on anything that moves at one point.


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    #4
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »
    Very good post. I've discovered the hard way that discipline is paramount to betting success.
    Common mistakes I've made is making the same bet twice, not cashing out when I've already made 100% or more in the hope I will get that final figure. Too many silly 1, 5 euro bets that like you say, add up. Not doing research and causally accepting the bookie odds means the favourite is likely to win when in reality they are very close H2H or league position.
    Betting everyday instead of having a day or a week off. Chasing losses.
    Doing big bets, 5 or more accums when single, double and trebles are a much better idea.

    Keeping a spreadsheet is an excellent idea as is having a system.

    For your pub night out with mates, I would suggest use a separate account with not much in it, away from your main account

    I'm a victim of doing the double bet myself. I.e Back United pre game, and then at HT still 0-0 I'll back again just because the odds are a lot better!


    Following RBall is another one I should really stop on. ''Dangerous Attack'' my bollix! It's just past the Half Way line and that pops up.

    Aye I've had the spreadsheet set up since start of year. Myself and 2 friends do a thing called ''Weekly treble Challenge'' Basically we have to pick a Win Draw or Win nothing else. So I have a separate spreadsheet for that.

    It takes time to log them, but I'd probably spend more money if I didn't log what I'd deposit etc.

    Was happy with my discipline on Wednesday, didn't back any Prem games as nothing took my fancy!

    Perhaps this thread could also be where people are tempted to make a bet but don't due to discipline.

    In my opinion, and from what I read, Discipline really is the way to profit. That's not to say people can't do the odd 20man accumulator for 1 or 2 quid for a bit of fun etc. But in terms of general betting, discipline,discipline,discipline:pac:


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    #5
    Sgt Pepper 64
    Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    Discipline is now working for me.
    My main bets are now only doubles or trebles and I cash out losing out on 30 or 40 euros BUT still making a healthy profit
    Oh and no duplications
    Yep I lost on City today but by breaking up my bets I'm not losing everything in one go.
    Hard lessons to learn but finally paying off


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    #6
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    Fancied Celta Vigo to score 3rd goal at 11/10 and also fancied Boca Juniors -1 at 13/10... Decided to save the money and train the discipline.

    Celta Vigo Score 3rd goal...
    Boca winning 2-0....


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    #7
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Just don't back Accs or even Trebles and at max go a double.

    But singles are the way to go. Lets say a bookies overround on a WDW market is 110% for every game. So the more teams you do the more the odds go in the bookies favour. If you have 5 team Acc its 50% worse odds then maybe you should be having.

    Of course there is value out there. But its not in every game and in every match.

    There is a reason bookies are giving money back on 1 leg of your Acc letting you down now.

    and always try to get the best odds. The amount of people who don't shop around is horrendous. Always try to get the best odds you can. If you shop around then you an get as much as 20% better value.


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    #8
    inforfun
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

    and always try to get the best odds. The amount of people who don't shop around is horrendous. Always try to get the best odds you can. If you shop around then you an get as much as 20% better value.

    Yep....
    Oddschecker ‏@Oddschecker 35m35 minutes ago
    The #Barca 1-0 & #Juve 3-0 Correct Score double paid #bestodds £7020 from a tenner.

    #worstodds returned just £2320.

    Just an example of a bet no one took but it is indeed wise to at least use oddschecker a lot.

    There is only a few doing odds on Dutch goalscorers but odds at Unibet are 95% of the time much better than on bet365


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    #9
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    The rise of cash out is genius from a bookies point of view make customers pay the over round twice doubling the house edge , don't ever cash out learn how to lay off to lock in a profit on Betfair or compare the cash out offer to what the Betfair odds are to work out what true cash out value is .

    Also you got to take best odds available if your not taking best odds and just using one or two books your going to lose long term


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    #10
    Nuts102
    Registered Users Posts: 8,701 ✭✭✭Nuts102


    clickerquicklic wrote: »

    Also you got to take best odds available if your not taking best odds and just using one or two books your going to lose long term

    This really is a point needed to get across really its amazing the amount of people who don't use odds checker.

    I done a trixie for the football tonight it paid 260 on pp and 400 on 888 i mean what a massive difference. That's what a 35-40% difference which is massive.


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    #11
    Warper
    Registered Users Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    The Cash out is the bookies most innovative creation of recent times. It is available why - not because they are helping the punter but obv. by reducing their losses on a winning bet.


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    #12
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    Warper wrote: »
    The Cash out is the bookies most innovative creation of recent times. It is available why - not because they are helping the punter but obv. by reducing their losses on a winning bet.

    I always think it works both ways to be honest, How many times have punters not Co'd and lost as opposed to CO.


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    #13
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    I always think it works both ways to be honest, How many times have punters not Co'd and lost as opposed to CO.

    It's irrelevant if your cash out bet wins or loses it's the added % it costs which wil ultimately cost you , I'm not sure if it would be possible to make a profit backing pre match odds and cashing out in play over a series of 1000 sample bets even if the first bet was a 5% arb


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    #14
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    clickerquicklic wrote: »
    It's irrelevant if your cash out bet wins or loses it's the added % it costs which wil ultimately cost you , I'm not sure if it would be possible to make a profit backing pre match odds and cashing out in play over a series of 1000 sample bets even if the first bet was a 5% arb

    You're assuming that out of 1000 how many are winners tho?

    What happens if you CO 700/1000. Let the other 300 run and they lose? It's all down to odds. If I back say 50 on City/United/Barca to win and it returns 150.

    City/Barca win and they offer me a CO of 120. I'll cash out.

    1)Assume both are favorites, just got over evens.

    2) Is the extra 30 really worth waiting for? Would you back 30 quid on a 4/11 or whatever?( Not getting into maths just an example)

    The CO is a lifesaver at times, and it's completely down the user. If the User finds that the odds are not good enough they can let it run, if they think they are getting a great price then CO.

    Example of a great CO i used during Cheltenham.

    4Fold on 4 favorite horses. The first 3 won, I CO'd for a great price when the last horse was 8/11. I then backed the 2nd favorite horse to win. The 2nd favorite horse won.

    So I got a CO price, and then won another bet! Works wonders at time.

    If the bookies are giving a bad CO price, it's probably for a reason, there's nothing stopping the punter from Cashing out,and then proceeding to back against.

    What happens if a Punter cashes out and his bet would have proceeded to win?

    That's on the punter, he was happy with what he CO'd on. Other wise he wouldn't have done it.

    In terms of % it's all down to the punter and what he feels will happen.

    I hear a lot that CO'ing is the devil etc. NOBODY forces the punter to CO, if they didn't want to CO just go with a bookie who doesn't offer that service. That makes it easier.


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    #15
    Mezcita
    Registered Users Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    You're assuming that out of 1000 how many are winners tho?

    What happens if you CO 700/1000. Let the other 300 run and they lose? It's all down to odds. If I back say 50 on City/United/Barca to win and it returns 150.

    City/Barca win and they offer me a CO of 120. I'll cash out.

    1)Assume both are favorites, just got over evens.

    2) Is the extra 30 really worth waiting for? Would you back 30 quid on a 4/11 or whatever?( Not getting into maths just an example)

    The CO is a lifesaver at times, and it's completely down the user. If the User finds that the odds are not good enough they can let it run, if they think they are getting a great price then CO.

    Example of a great CO i used during Cheltenham.

    4Fold on 4 favorite horses. The first 3 won, I CO'd for a great price when the last horse was 8/11. I then backed the 2nd favorite horse to win. The 2nd favorite horse won.

    So I got a CO price, and then won another bet! Works wonders at time.

    If the bookies are giving a bad CO price, it's probably for a reason, there's nothing stopping the punter from Cashing out,and then proceeding to back against.

    What happens if a Punter cashes out and his bet would have proceeded to win?

    That's on the punter, he was happy with what he CO'd on. Other wise he wouldn't have done it.

    In terms of % it's all down to the punter and what he feels will happen.

    I hear a lot that CO'ing is the devil etc. NOBODY forces the punter to CO, if they didn't want to CO just go with a bookie who doesn't offer that service. That makes it easier.

    You're missing the point. The cash out price is never going to be the "real" price as the bookie is creaming an extra few percentage off the price in order to allow the customer to close off the bet. So taking your City/United/Barca treble as an example, a 30 quid loss from 150 is not the end of the world. But it's more than likely not what the real loss should be.

    As clickerquicklic pointed out, people need to learn how to use Betfair. At least there you are frequently getting not only a very decent initial price but you also don't have to hand over a decent chunk of your winnings just to close out a bet.


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    #16
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    Basically yeah the guy ahead is spot on , I haven't time to make a simulator to show it but I have done similar simulation for casino play in the past , if I have time later I'll put some numbers to it but yeah it's a really really bad move to cash out any time , I know this is counter intuitive if you have just got paid 150 quid for a bet that went on to lose but that bet probably had an expected value of 180 quid and long term that maths will beat you , cashing out at Betfair at least you only pay the spread and comission not a >10% over round


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    #17
    inforfun
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    Isnt there a difference between cashing out on a single bet and an accumulator with still more than 1 part of it open.

    Example:
    I had a 4fold on the Copa earlier this week which came to about 12/1. Took it a few days before the first match kicked off and before a ball was kicked, same bet had odds of only 6/1 left

    First 2 matches won and the cashout was around 5/1.

    Now of course it isnt rocket science on how to use betfair in order to make money from that bet if there is only 1 match left but with 2 still open....


    (let it run and Guarani screwed me with a missed penalty btw, and 4th match didnt do it either.)


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    #18
    Sgt Pepper 64
    Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    inforfun wrote: »
    Isnt there a difference between cashing out on a single bet and an accumulator with still more than 1 part of it open.

    Example:
    I had a 4fold on the Copa earlier this week which came to about 12/1. Took it a few days before the first match kicked off and before a ball was kicked, same bet had odds of only 6/1 left

    First 2 matches won and the cashout was around 5/1.

    Now of course it isnt rocket science on how to use betfair in order to make money from that bet if there is only 1 match left but with 2 still open....


    (let it run and Guarani screwed me with a missed penalty btw, and 4th match didnt do it either.)

    Actually bet365 now has a cash out "slider" so you can cash out part and let some still run for obviously a reduced return (it tells you)

    TBH, Ive lost more money NOT cashing out than letting it ride, so for me, cash out is a good thing, too many teams, dead and buried for scored a late consolation


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    #19
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    If your betting for fun and your not taking it to serious then by all means cash out , I was just pointing out to anyone who was interested mathemically that it's a bad idea as you are paying another edge and long term you will lose more than you would have had you let your bets run.
    It's kinda a moot point anyway as very few professional gamblers would have a bet365 account ! So in reality I'm just jealous of you lot , maybe I should have cashed out more often and could have kept my account a bit longer ! I bought a bet365 off my mate on the first day or Cheltenham and it was limited to 1% by Thursday morning :(


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    #20
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    clickerquicklic wrote: »
    If your betting for fun and your not taking it to serious then by all means cash out.

    I still think you're failing to see the argument against this. Fair enough the bookies take an extra cut.

    But lets say for arguments sake, I've a double.

    100/1
    1/5

    100/1 wins and now I'm waiting on the 1/5, the 1/5 goes 2-0 down by HT and my cashout is just over money back. I'm clearly going to cash out, weather they take a cut or not. Why would I let it run? There is no logic behind that.

    In general I hear of more people losing money for not cashing out then earning more.

    So to say people who cash out don't take gambling serious is silly in my opinion.

    You're argument is ''You'll lose in the long run'' you're assuming every bet people cash out on is a winner. I gave an example before so I won't go into that again.


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    #21
    Sgt Pepper 64
    Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    Ha, and I just had a match abandoned in the 83rd min as the sprinkler system came up, I had a under corners bet and would have won easily but hung on for the extra fiver! Cost me 100 euros!


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    #22
    Sgt Pepper 64
    Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    clickerquicklic wrote: »
    If your betting for fun and your not taking it to serious then by all means cash out , I was just pointing out to anyone who was interested mathemically that it's a bad idea as you are paying another edge and long term you will lose more than you would have had you let your bets run.
    It's kinda a moot point anyway as very few professional gamblers would have a bet365 account ! So in reality I'm just jealous of you lot , maybe I should have cashed out more often and could have kept my account a bit longer ! I bought a bet365 off my mate on the first day or Cheltenham and it was limited to 1% by Thursday morning :(

    kinda curious, what account do the pro's use then, and why not 365???
    You were limited because you kept on winning?


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    #23
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »
    kinda curious, what account do the pro's use then, and why not 365???
    You were limited because you kept on winning?

    I think a lot would use Asian bookies/ Pinnacle, as they don't seem to limit as much.

    Almost all regular bookies LadB,PP,Bet365 etc, limit.

    The only time punters have to worry about being limited is if they are betting High Hundreds and thousands on games


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    #24
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    I still think you're failing to see the argument against this. Fair enough the bookies take an extra cut.

    But lets say for arguments sake, I've a double.

    100/1
    1/5

    100/1 wins and now I'm waiting on the 1/5, the 1/5 goes 2-0 down by HT and my cashout is just over money back. I'm clearly going to cash out, weather they take a cut or not. Why would I let it run? There is no logic behind that.

    In general I hear of more people losing money for not cashing out then earning more.

    So to say people who cash out don't take gambling serious is silly in my opinion.

    You're argument is ''You'll lose in the long run'' you're assuming every bet people cash out on is a winner. I gave an example before so I won't go into that again.

    I make no assumption on any bet winning or losing it's just maths , I know it can be hard to understand that winning and losing is irrelevant , you need to forget about winning and losing , let's think of the game "deal or no deal" there is 250k and 1k left , the banker offers the player 50 k for the box they take it and are happy to find they have 1k in there box , they won but it was a bad play . It's essentially what bookies do offer a lower than expected value for the outcome so they get an extra cut again on top of the house edge , bookies aren't offering this for fun or help people out it's genius

    Deal or no deal example
    50% you win 250k
    50% you win 1k
    The box has an expected value of 125k taking 50k is a horrible hedge

    You have a bet that's winning 4 legs up or whatever and going on to an even money shot
    100 at 8/1 initial bet
    Offered 300
    50% chance you win 800
    50% chance you lose 100
    The expected value of your bet is 350 if you take 300 you have lost 50 of expected value you will not regain this value , you also need to remember the % times you never get to cash out losing bets from the start , the amount of bets where you never are in a position to cash out means it's mostly winning bets that end up cashed out


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    #25
    paulo6891
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    The bookmaker's potential loss is irrelevant when offering a cash out.

    If they were worried about their risk, they would have looked after it before kickoff.

    It is ultimately about them getting more turnover. The in-play prices that they are offering you (ie cash out) have more margin in them than pre-match prices, so it's a great profit-making product.

    And I'm just curious, out of all the people who say they lack discipline on match X and lose a good deal of money... if match X had come in for them, would it have been a master stroke? I think so. Poor discipline can often be confused simply with poor knowledge. Looking at a few months worth of data on soccerway is going to give you an edge? I think not.

    ps shanotheslayer, you always let it run.


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    #26
    Shanotheslayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭Shanotheslayer


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    Looking at a few months worth of data on soccerway is going to give you an edge? I think not.

    An edge? Everything has to be taken into account. I.e if you look on Soccerway and see a team havn't lost in X amount of games at home and suddenly the Evens to win against a poor team.

    The question has to be asked, who's missing extra. Why is price so high, it's good for back up data.


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    #27
    paulo6891
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    Shanotheslayer wrote: »
    An edge? Everything has to be taken into account. I.e if you look on Soccerway and see a team havn't lost in X amount of games at home and suddenly the Evens to win against a poor team.

    The question has to be asked, who's missing extra. Why is price so high, it's good for back up data.

    I'm not so sure you understand my 'edge' terminology, or else I have misunderstood your reply.

    If one looks at a price and thinks it is wrong, it is usually because they are wrong.

    Usually.


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