Danny Morrision-Stormount could collapse.

SoulandForm wrote: »

http://eamonnmallie.com/2013/10/i-hope-i-am-wrong-but-i-suspect-that-the-assembly-could-collapse-by-danny-morrison/

Personally I find it weird that as one of the brightest and most humanly attractive of the Provisional movement's leadership he bowed out. There are some strong points here- the real question is what is Unionism playing at? Yes they won- but that doesnt mean the victory was total. After all the scares about a united Ireland around the corner gone do they honestly believe they go back the pre-Troubles mess?

Violence is sadly embedded in Northern Ireland.

Unionism didn't win. They reliquished a hell of a lot of power and it became law that if it wins democratically then a united Ireland is a reality. Unionists were initially happy in the Stormont power sharing but now they can see nationalist parties SF and the SDLP eating away at their outright majority and the balance being held by the Alliance party.

The union flag is gone off Belfast city hall which brought it into line with a lot of other official buildings up there. If you compare the 6 counties now with what existed pre-1970 then it could be argued that the real winners were nationalists/republicans. They got rid of the apartheid gerrymandered protestant country and it's now placed in democracy and equality. There's also self-determination in that everyone born on the island is entitled to an Irish passport. The real problem with unionists is facing upto the fact that nationalists/republicans are now every bit their equal and the political majority is closing.

They can't use the excuse about the IRA anymore for not negotiating and engaging with nationalists/republicans as the IRA decommissioned weapons in 2005. There is still shootings, killings and weapons being held by loyalist paramilitary forces which hasn't been addressed by unionist politicians to the extent that SF addressed the IRA. I see the UVF are being investigated now for organised crime with the PSNI assistant chief constable Drew Harris saying that "the UVF very clearly have involvement in drug dealing, all forms of gangsterism, serious assaults, intimidation of the community".

Hannibal wrote: »

Unionism didn't win. They reliquished a hell of a lot of power and it became law that if it wins democratically then a united Ireland is a reality. Unionists were initially happy in the Stormont power sharing but now they can see nationalist parties SF and the SDLP eating away at their outright majority and the balance being held by the Alliance party.

The union flag is gone off Belfast city hall which brought it into line with a lot of other official buildings up there. If you compare the 6 counties now with what existed pre-1970 then it could be argued that the real winners were nationalists/republicans. They got rid of the apartheid gerrymandered protestant country and it's now placed in democracy and equality. There's also self-determination in that everyone born on the island is entitled to an Irish passport. The real problem with unionists is facing upto the fact that nationalists/republicans are now every bit their equal and the political majority is closing.

They can't use the excuse about the IRA anymore for not negotiating and engaging with nationalists/republicans as the IRA decommissioned weapons in 2005. There is still shootings, killings and weapons being held by loyalist paramilitary forces which hasn't been addressed by unionist politicians to the extent that SF addressed the IRA. I see the UVF are being investigated now for organised crime with the PSNI assistant chief constable Drew Harris saying that "the UVF very clearly have involvement in drug dealing, all forms of gangsterism, serious assaults, intimidation of the community".

On the contrary, Unionism DID win. All you have to do is look at the numbers in support of the Union from all polls and the Catholic support for the Union is much higher than support for a United Ireland from Protestants.

Normalization is great for Unionism. The flag on City hall in all reality doesn't mean a whole lot, its just a symbolic thing but it has made absolutely no difference to the place of Northern Ireland within the Union.

The current UVF is practically the same in numbers as Irish Republican Dissidents. They are practically irrelevant as any force.

Hannibal wrote: »

The real terrorist campaign began with unprovoked and sustained attacks by unionists on nationalist people which turned into civil rights movement by nationalists demanding equality. The IRA were almost non existant until 1970 when ordinary people pleaded with the IRA whom they called "I Ran Away" to help defend nationalist areas which the RUC simply weren't bothered with doing. That's how the armed campaign started, the purpose was to defend nationalist areas simple as that. Very few people I know who were involved at the highest level of the republican movement actually thought they would unite Ireland hence why from the early 80's they were trying to get a political settlement. You have to aim higher than your goals to get an acceptable settlement, what resulted was a military stalemate with both Irish republicans and the British state forces accepting that they couldn't defeat each other.


Below is a link to an independent poll called "The Peoples Refendum" which was held in South Armagh on May 25th this year. The poll showed 93% of people in FAVOUR of unity.

So you take a look at this independent poll on a UI in NI and you will see that people said 'Yes' with a huge majority.

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/column-our-grassroots-initiative-shows-high-demand-for-a-border-poll-927617-May2013/

if “sufficient demand” for one exists.

There isn't. Case closed.

Painted Pony wrote: »

There are problems with any polls in terms of linking what people say they will do and what they actually do but it is a particular problem for the unity question quite simply because people don't know what they are being asked. It is not going to happen any time in the near future so people just don't know the implications of voting one way or another. All they can do is vote the way their tradition dictates, or perhaps try and guess what shape a UI would take.

I wouldn't take any poll, either suggesting support for unity or the opposite, too seriously until it is realistically being proposed.

A poll which canvasses opinion throughout NI, ensuring that all ages and political backgrounds are included would be significant. This one wasn't, and the result was a foregone conclusion. Note that the turnout was below 50% (an actual poll would be much higher) and that as much as 7% in an area like that voted no.

COYW wrote: »

Have you seen the polls in question? The media based ones, I mean. The question was very straight forward. It asked the individual whether or not they would like a poll on a UI. Simple English, as simple as it gets. If an individual can't grasp that, they shouldn't have a vote.

That quite clearly is not the question I am talking about. It is the more substantive one as to which was they would vote if there was a poll. And even the holding of a poll is, I think, still some years away. So they are being asked to consider a question without a context.