Scottish independence and Northern Ireland

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 12-09-2012 1:12pm #1

Could the knock on effect of Scotland independence cause Northern Ireland Unionists to re-examine their identity within the union? After all, they are descended from lowland Scottish Protestants. Personally, I don't think they will even vote in favour in the referendum, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

Happy Monday · 12-09-2012 1:18pm

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Could the knock on effect of Scotland independence cause Northern Ireland Unionists to re-examine their identity within the union? After all, they are descended from lowland Scottish Protestants. Personally, I don't think they will even vote in favour in the referendum, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

It would cause English people to examine the future of the UK.

That would lead to a rethink on behalf of Protestant Ulster about their place in the world.

Unlikely to happen in the short term.
Scottish people will vote to stay in the UK.

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 1:19pm

It won't alter Unionist opinion here. The only benefit is the weakening of the Union itself.

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 5:15pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

It won't alter Unionist opinion here. The only benefit is the weakening of the Union itself.

What benefit?

The biggest threat to the union is English independence and that ain't gonna happen any time soon.

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 5:24pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What benefit?

Why, the benefit of freeing the 06 Counties from a cancerous, war-mongering alcoholic bankrupt mendacious plutocratic entity, of course.

The biggest threat to the union is English independence and that ain't gonna happen any time soon.

UK debt is due to hit 10 trillion by 2015. Statistically speaking, with such a number the horse has fled the barn and it's more likely to worsen than it is to shrink. This is the worst threat to the Union. The economy in the 06 is made up of a whopping 75% Government spending. In what Universe do you think this is sustainable?

The Union will be dead within 50 years and England will be the multicultural capital of Europe.

Madam · 12-09-2012 5:33pm

As much as I'd like to see an independent Scotland, I don't think it will happen - well not in my lifetime. Tbh theres' too much reliance on the whole British system - in other words if it aint broke why fix it according to a large number of people here. I would like to see us more like Canada or Australia though, with our distiny in our own hands and not at the dictate of Westminster.

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 5:41pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What benefit?

Why, the benefit of freeing the 06 Counties from a cancerous, war-mongering alcoholic bankrupt mendacious plutocratic entity, of course.

The biggest threat to the union is English independence and that ain't gonna happen any time soon.

UK debt is due to hit 10 trillion by 2015. Statistically speaking, with such a number the horse has fled the barn and it's more likely to worsen than it is to shrink. This is the worst threat to the Union. The economy in the 06 is made up of a whopping 75% Government spending. In what Universe do you think this is sustainable?
The Union will be dead within 50 years and England will be the multicultural capital of Europe.

Ok, so no benefits other than your own bigotry then.

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 5:49pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Ok, so no benefits other than your own bigotry then.

De-partition is beneficial to the overall economy of the Island of Ireland. Especially for border Counties which suffer due to partition. Derry is cut off from its economic hinterland. Newry too.

Another benefit is that defenceless Countries will have less to fear from war-mongering. The UK entity averages one war per decade, more even. I should put emphasis on defenceless, because the UK never attacks Countries that are even remotely capable of defending themselves. E.g. Russia, lots of sabre rattling by the UK - but zero action.

Jellicoe · 12-09-2012 6:04pm

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Could the knock on effect of Scotland independence cause Northern Ireland Unionists to re-examine their identity within the union?

Not a chance.

and in the extremely unlikely event the UK broke up in the morning, NI unionists would be happy to become independent.

Which is a good job for the 'republic', as it can't run 26 counties, never mind 32

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 6:19pm

Jellicoe wrote: »

Not a chance.

and in the extremely unlikely event the UK broke up in the morning, NI unionists would be happy to become independent.

Which is a good job for the 'republic', as it can't run 26 counties, never mind 32

Ulster being 'independent' is more far-fetched than being absorbed by the Irish Republic.

Chuck Stone · 12-09-2012 6:20pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

UK debt is due to hit 10 trillion by 2015.

How does that compare to other, similarly sized, developed nations?

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 6:24pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Ok, so no benefits other than your own bigotry then.

De-partition is beneficial to the overall economy of the Island of Ireland. Especially for border Counties which suffer due to partition. Derry is cut off from its economic hinterland. Newry too.

Another benefit is that defenceless Countries will have less to fear from war-mongering. The UK entity averages one war per decade, more even. I should put emphasis on defenceless, because the UK never attacks Countries that are even remotely capable of defending themselves. E.g. Russia, lots of sabre rattling by the UK - but zero action.

So without all those yummy civil service jobs Derry and Newry will suddenly become rich?

The South will suddenly experience a boom because of all these wealthy northerners joining the economy?

Without English tax payers, who is going to pay for their free prescriptions? The imf?

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 6:29pm

Italian debt is is in the 1 trillion range according to this;

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/apr2012/span-a30.shtml

No other Country of comparable size to the UK suffers such disingenuity. You'll never see any real talk of Bavaria seceding for example. But Scotland doing so is a very real possibility, in that regard the UK isn't even really a Country.

Jellicoe · 12-09-2012 6:30pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

Ulster being 'independent' is more far-fetched than being absorbed by the Irish Republic.

what I actually posted was "in the extremely unlikely event. . .", and never forget, unionist mentality, and what is far fetched, are two completely different things

golden lane · 12-09-2012 6:32pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

De-partition is beneficial to the overall economy of the Island of Ireland. Especially for border Counties which suffer due to partition. Derry is cut off from its economic hinterland. Newry too.

Another benefit is that defenceless Countries will have less to fear from war-mongering. The UK entity averages one war per decade, more even. I should put emphasis on defenceless, because the UK never attacks Countries that are even remotely capable of defending themselves. E.g. Russia, lots of sabre rattling by the UK - but zero action.

normandy 1944......great game of tennis....

el alamein......a terrible rough soccer game....

the somme......a protest march...

Border-Rat · 12-09-2012 6:32pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So without all those yummy civil service jobs Derry and Newry will suddenly become rich?

The South will suddenly experience a boom because of all these wealthy northerners joining the economy?

Without English tax payers, who is going to pay for their free prescriptions? The imf?

Subsidizing is the North West is perpetual life support. De-partition means a (Probaby lengthy) decline in the standard of living, eventually raising it to higher than previously experienced. Buying off people with meagre dole payments, yeah, great long term strategy. Especially when you can't afford it.

It was Michael Collins who said an all-Ireland economy strengthens the Island overall.

sanbrafyffe · 12-09-2012 6:41pm

dont worry when we get out of this sxxt we will make them all jealous,,we will thrive again and never to let the banking situation to happen again,,,lots of the northern nationalists will come back onboard for renunification,,,it will take many many years yet thou,,people arent ready up there to change,nomore than we are down here,,,an independent northern ireland can never happen,,under the |GFA it stated that the stalemate province of n.i can only exist under the the influnence of westminister or if its changed status to dublin,,,,it entirely depends on the people of n.i itself

Jellicoe · 12-09-2012 6:49pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So without all those yummy civil service jobs Derry and Newry will suddenly become rich?

nope, as most of those yummy civil service jobs are actually in Belfast, and would be going to Dublin

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 7:23pm

Jellicoe wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So without all those yummy civil service jobs Derry and Newry will suddenly become rich?

nope, as most of those yummy civil service jobs are actually in Belfast, and would be going to Dublin

UK civil service jobs in Dublin?

Denerick · 12-09-2012 7:43pm

If Scotland broke apart I could see NI becoming either an independent statelet or enter into some kind of federal arrangement with the Republic within a couple of decades. I think a grand gesture by the Irish republic would help swing it with unionists (Hopefully most of the old crusties will have died off by then), such as relocating the capital to Belfast and/or creating an upper house that is reserved 50% for protestants.

Gee Bag · 12-09-2012 7:44pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

UK debt is due to hit 10 trillion by 2015. .

Your figure for UK government debt is just daft. It currently stands at just over 1 Trillion Sterling.

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt

Jellicoe · 12-09-2012 8:52pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

UK civil service jobs in Dublin?

aye thats right :rolleyes:

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 9:19pm

Jellicoe wrote: »

aye thats right :rolleyes:

Why would civil service jobs from Belfast transfer to Dublin?

Those jobs are UK jobs, for various UK government departments like the HMRC. If unification comes about, a lot of those jobs will transfer back to Britain and would result in very few new jobs in the Irish civil service.

You also have the big question of the free health care in the North. How will the bankrupt Republic of Ireland cope with that, or will the NHS hospitals up there just transfer to the HSE and people have to start paying for prescriptions and GP visits?

That ain't gonna go down too well.

sanbrafyffe · 12-09-2012 9:32pm

[they might like the idea of higher wages and state benefits thou:D

QUOTE=Fratton Fred;80741093]Why would civil service jobs from Belfast transfer to Dublin?

Those jobs are UK jobs, for various UK government departments like the HMRC. If unification comes about, a lot of those jobs will transfer back to Britain and would result in very few new jobs in the Irish civil service.

You also have the big question of the free health care in the North. How will the bankrupt Republic of Ireland cope with that, or will the NHS hospitals up there just transfer to the HSE and people have to start paying for prescriptions and GP visits?

That ain't gonna go down too well.[/QUOTE]

Fratton Fred · 12-09-2012 10:19pm

Sounds great, as long as you don't drive, drink alcohol, buy a house, eat, use gas or electricity or get ill.

Dubhlinner · 12-09-2012 10:19pm

Plantation happened so long ago I don't really think its all that relevant. They'd probably opt for staying as par of the UK of Southern Britain & Northern Ireland.

Sounds ridiculous as a term but they probably said the same thing about the UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland in 1920. Unionism is the popular constitutional consensus in NI and that ain't gonna change anytime soon.

The bottom line is Northern Ireland has to vote to leave the UK as per the GFA. Scotland being in or outside the UK is really neither here nor there.

If it was just down to finances Northern Ireland would have been cut off the umbilical cord long ago.

What it may do is give a revival in spirits to the constitutional republican campaign to unify Ireland. This coupled with the Catholic population reaching 50% of the voting population would put the notion of Irish unity back on the table - at present mainstream nationalism is very apathetic.

So in short term it won't make a difference. Long term it may.

LordSutch · 12-09-2012 10:27pm

Interesting post that^ The United Kingdom of Southern Britain & Northern Ireland does indeed has a certain ring to it, and if Scotland does leave the Union (unlikely) then who knows . . .

Denerick · 12-09-2012 10:29pm

Dubhlinner wrote: »

Plantation happened so long ago I don't really think its all that relevant. They'd probably opt for staying as par of the UK of Southern Britain & Northern Ireland.

Sounds ridiculous as a term but they probably said the same thing about the UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland in 1920. Unionism is the popular constitutional consensus in NI and that ain't gonna change anytime soon.

The bottom line is Northern Ireland has to vote to leave the UK as per the GFA. Scotland being in or outside the UK is really neither here nor there.

If it was just down to finances Northern Ireland would have been cut off the umbilical cord long ago.

What it may do is give a revival in spirits to the constitutional republican campaign to unify Ireland. This coupled with the Catholic population reaching 50% of the voting population would put the notion of Irish unity back on the table - at present mainstream nationalism is very apathetic.

So in short term it won't make a difference. Long term it may.

Nobody in Ireland wants to unite the island if it comes about from a 50% +1 referendum (As in, 100% catholic, 0% protestant)

You'll never convince some unionists of the merits of a united Ireland (The elderly, the die hard bigots, the violent inner city yobs who know no religion but pretend to be 'protestant' or 'catholic' - both sides are as bad as each other and those who deny this are completely blinkered)

A united Ireland will only ever come about when a fair proportion of protestants get behind it. Doesn't even need to be a majority, just a significant minority. Take religion and identity issues out of the equation, throw a few bones to the rabid die hards (Such as a 50% protestant upper house, federal solution, lots of 'cultural' money on causes close to unionist hearts etc.) and eventually the educated and the middle class protestants will come around to the idea. But only if the argument is sound. In ten years time and if the southern economy is healthy, I think its quite possible. The process of decatholicisation really needs to speed up however, starting with the nationalistion of primary level education by the (secular) state. I won't hold my breath for that though.

Dubhlinner · 12-09-2012 10:37pm

Denerick wrote: »

Nobody in Ireland wants to unite the island if it comes about from a 50% +1 referendum (As in, 100% catholic, 0% protestant)

You'll never convince some unionists of the merits of a united Ireland (The elderly, the die hard bigots, the violent inner city yobs who know no religion but pretend to be 'protestant' or 'catholic' - both sides are as bad as each other and those who deny this are completely blinkered)

A united Ireland will only ever come about when a fair proportion of protestants get behind it. Doesn't even need to be a majority, just a significant minority. Take religion and identity issues out of the equation, throw a few bones to the rabid die hards (Such as a 50% protestant upper house, federal solution, lots of 'cultural' money on causes close to unionist hearts etc.) and eventually the educated and the middle class protestants will come around to the idea. But only if the argument is sound. In ten years time and if the southern economy is healthy, I think its quite possible. The process of decatholicisation really needs to speed up however, starting with the nationalistion of primary level education by the (secular) state. I won't hold my breath for that though.

I'd actually agree with that; alas I probably wasn't very clear in the point I was making.

At present all rational nationalists and republicans see a united Ireland coming through the GFA as completely hopeless.

The counties were specifically chosen for northern Ireland to ensure a majority would have a preference for staying in the UK.

While less than 50% are from an Irish nationalist background the notion that a majority will vote to leave the UK is bonkers. When its an even demographic playing field however; I'd expect to see a surge in constitutional nationalist aspirations- as then it will seem remotely possible. A large number of unionists will still need to be persuaded of course

Denerick · 12-09-2012 10:41pm

Dubhlinner wrote: »

I'd actually agree with that; alas I probably wasn't very clear in the point I was making.

At present all rational nationalists and republicans see a united Ireland coming through the GFA as completely hopeless.

The counties were specifically chosen for northern Ireland to ensure a majority would have a preference for staying in the UK.

While less than 50% are from an Irish nationalist background the notion that a majority will vote to leave the UK is bonkers. When its an even demographic playing field however; I'd expect to see a surge in constitutional nationalist aspirations- as then it will seem remotely possible. A large number of unionists will still need to be persuaded of course

The constitutional nationalists will need to convince many unionists to their cause though. Indeed, it would be useful if they could be called anything but 'nationalist' or 'republican', as this alone would scare off many prospective unionists! You'll get nowhere without some unionist support. Even if every single catholic voter votes for unification and you have a majority, few south of the border will be celebrating. I think we'd probably vote against it in those circumstances. We definitely don't want to inherit a province with 49% of its population ready to overthrow the state.

Prima Nocte · 13-09-2012 2:02pm

Denerick wrote: »

The constitutional nationalists will need to convince many unionists to their cause though. Indeed, it would be useful if they could be called anything but 'nationalist' or 'republican', as this alone would scare off many prospective unionists! You'll get nowhere without some unionist support. Even if every single catholic voter votes for unification and you have a majority, few south of the border will be celebrating. I think we'd probably vote against it in those circumstances. We definitely don't want to inherit a province with 49% of its population ready to overthrow the state.

The Unionist threat to overthrow a united state is overestimated to say the least. Unionists could never match the capacity of the PIRA during the troubles and even when they did, they depended on the British Army to do so.

Jellicoe · 13-09-2012 5:12pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would civil service jobs from Belfast transfer to Dublin?

Those jobs are UK jobs, for various UK government departments like the HMRC. If unification comes about, a lot of those jobs will transfer back to Britain and would result in very few new jobs in the Irish civil service.

You also have the big question of the free health care in the North. How will the bankrupt Republic of Ireland cope with that, or will the NHS hospitals up there just transfer to the HSE and people have to start paying for prescriptions and GP visits?

That ain't gonna go down too well.

Really, does it have to be spelled out to you word for word ?
You really think the Irish civil service in Dublin would not try to transfer some of these jobs/posts to Dublin, lol. Also if you read my previous posts you'd see that I'm well aware the republic are not able to run 26 counties never mind 32.

Happy Monday · 13-09-2012 6:22pm

Border-Rat wrote: »

It won't alter Unionist opinion here. The only benefit is the weakening of the Union itself.

Which was strengthened by the GFA.
Over 90% of people in the ROI support British rule in Ireland.
UK debt levels will be strengthened by 100 billion barrels of oil and the associated revenues from the Falklands.

Denerick · 13-09-2012 8:56pm

Prima Nocte wrote: »

The Unionist threat to overthrow a united state is overestimated to say the least. Unionists could never match the capacity of the PIRA during the troubles and even when they did, they depended on the British Army to do so.

So what? All it takes is a unionist bomb in Dublin and you can watch basically the entirety of southern support for unification evapourating. Unification won't happen unless unionists change their mind, simple as. Nationalists and Republicans need to start making inroads amongst educated and middle class Protestants in the north otherwise this cycle of conflict will continue. The arguments need to be sound, the emotion needs to be suppressed. No Padraig Pearse quotes or talk of past generations dying for our freedom yada yada. Strictly rational, logical, and practical arguments.

I for one have always thought that economically, socially and culturally partition is an absurd concept. The merits will and should stand on their own ground.

Scottish independence and Northern Ireland

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