The Football Tips Thread V

Chateauroux- Brest

In the midweek notes .....

We have discussed Chateauroux's away day woes many times, most recently ahead of their trip to Ajaccio .....

Chateauroux who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus.

Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experience fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three.



They drew that 1-1 and of course, then lost 5-2 at home to Nancy next time out ! They have Boyer and Sakhi back now, but Roudet and Darrieux (see all four above) are still absent and I can see Nimes getting as much joy through midfield as Nancy did on Friday. Striker Terence Makengo is also sidelined, he has scored one of only two away goals Chat have scored this season, earning them that point in Corsica. The hosts have drawn three straight home starts since beating Angers on opening day, but two of those finished 2-2 and it is difficult to see the visitors scoring twice on the road against anyone.

They lost that 1-0 and now sit at the foot of Ligue 2, they earned a late reprieve from relegation last season and the squad to play at this level was hastily assembled, made up of players largely unwanted elsewhere and a mixture of inexperience and those a little long in the tooth. They have "always" been terrible on the road ( see above), but we have not seen an awful lot of evidence that this time round they can be saved by their home form. Last season they won eight at home before the end of February, but just one more after that, despite three more points having been enough to have saved them from relegation and they look weaker, especially in midfield and this is where teams are steamrolling them, even here on home soil. Their only home win came over fellow relegation fodder Clermont, they trailed in that until late and the visitors avenged that loss a few days later, winning 3-1 here in the cup, Nancy scored five here last Friday and it feels like they have simply got used to losing and now it hardly matters if they are playing home or away.

Team news is identical to Tuesday, apart from the additional loss of promising young defensive midfielder Hassane Kamara and now a lightweight midfield is looking threadbare, with one or two youngsters set to be called up from the youth team and if called upon, maybe even asked to play in midfield out of position on their debuts !

Brest are a very strong squad and one I sided with pretty much from January onwards, picking up on their improvement and strength of squad quite quickly, he said modestly and back in February wrote ahead of a trip to Bastia....."Now another fellow struggler travels to the island looking for a survival boost. Brest are just one place above the home side, but have an extra ten points in the bag, plus a game in hand and arrive here on the back of a win over Auxerre last week, their first in almost four months, which has give them a major confidence boost. On Friday, they meet the other bottom three team , when they host Laval and three points today would not only give them further momentum, but lift the pressure on them to win that fixture. They were a Ligue 1 side last season and have a lot more quality in their ranks than the hosts, although neither side has made the transition to Ligue 2, CAB have been unable to strengthen and make the step up, Brest came into the campaign having lost their last 11 starts in the top flight and despite a decent enough start to this season, have been unable to address the overall slide. But sometimes you have to hit the bottom ( or second bottom !) before climbing and on paper they remain a class above CAB. Coach Alex Dupont has been "able" to omit by choice, six players who played Ligue 1 football last season, including two with 53 starts appearances between them ( Mendy and Ayite), two others left behind are on loan from Monaco and Villarreal and these are just options that the hosts could only dream of."


They have a touch of quality amongst their ranks and pose a bit threat from set pieces, especially through Bruno Grougi , who has seven goals and two assists since the upturn in fortune, he delivers a killer dead ball and I am amazed he has not "provided" more goals.

On the final day of the season, I rounded up their progress over the previous three months ....Now for Brest, at the end of January they were second from bottom, with just 20 points from 22 starts, over the 13 games since ( now, hopefully, it makes sense), they have collected a whopping 30 points with a 9-3-1 record, far and away the best form in Ligue 2. I was impressed with a point at Nimes on Friday, to go away to a team at this stage of the season who are fighting for survival and go a goal down took a lot of spirit to come back from, especially with nothing but pride to play for. I doubt few other teams would have denied Nimes on Friday, but Brest played with great energy and I suspect they wish there were another ten games left to play this season.

They were playing Chateauroux on that day and with the visitors fighing for survival Brest were huge odds (2.70 +) to win .....

What choice do they (Chat) have but to go for this today, good news for them is that Brest have nothing to play for, bad news is that they are in fantastic form, have only lost twice in 15 starts , collecting 33 points and one of those was a home loss to promoted Caen, who they outplayed for 90 minutes in their last home start and got back on track last week with a road win at Lens, another team who will be playing top flight football next season. I would argue right now that possibly Metz aside, Brest are playing the best football in Ligue 2, will not want to lose at home a second time in a row and are looking to lay down a marker for next season.


I think that Brest are an amazing price today, Chat will have to gamble at some stage and are simply not very good defensively, they just cannot keep Brest out for 90 minutes IMO, so will need two goals to win this (at least). If news comes through that results elsewhere are going against them late and this not their way, it would not surprise me if they, at least subconsciously , gave up. Like last week with Dijon, I have to again take two bets (home win and "over").


They won 3-0 and it is hard to think how they could have been any more impressive over the last 14-15 weeks of the campaign.

On the opening day of this season I wrote ....They have a young and fast improving backline and look strong in all areas, the signing of Alexandre Cuvillier from Nancy in the summer looks very good business indeed, he assisted for a lot of goals and I described him as an "important cog in the Nancy system" last season, when he made 35 appearances and they have added pace in other offensive areas. They look stronger if anything and it is hard to see them outside the top five.

They are without Cuvillier again today and will be a little stronger once he is fully fit, but even allowing for his absence, the visitors look to have far too much talent in midfield for Chat and I see them dominationg central areas today. The "bad news" is that Brest have yet to win on the road (0-3-1), actually they have yet to score a goal away from home ! However, they have had chances to win a couple of those and definitely look one of the strongest L2 squads, they did take a long while to get going last season and it might be some time yet before we see them at their very best, but anything less than three points today will probably be viewed by them as points dropped and I expect them to win.


1.5 units Brest -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket .


Chateauroux: Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Bonnart, Hountondji, Nestor, Obiang, Bain, Boyer - Dudouit, Chamed, Plessis, Zola, Sakhi, Koffi/ Mauricio - Nnomo, Thil.



Brest:Thébaux - Falette, Traoré, Belaud, Martial, Moimbé, Makonda - Grougi, Ramaré, Perez, Doumbia, Khaled - Verdier, Laborde, Samassa, Alphonse, Sea.

France Ligue 2 betting preview: Clermont- Troyes

Troyes got back to winning ways last Tuesday. They won that 4-1 with Ghislain Gimbert (see above) scoring twice, I have been spot on with these strikers to follow in recent weeks and having broken his duck for the season, it is very hard not to see him being productive over the next few weeks and mirroring his form of last season, but and there is always a but, he has been left out tonight by coach Jean-Marc Furlan who marches to the beat of his own drum and is not your archetypal Ligue 2 boss. He has opted to go with Henri Bienvenu and five goal Corentin Jean upfront. Jean picks himself and it is clear Bienvenu and Gimbert will battle to lead the line and that they want to persevere with the former as long as possible, as they "broke the bank" to bring him in (even free transfers cost money) and he was wanted by several of the top Turkish clubs, having been prolific and having gained Champions League experience at Young Boys, Fenerbahce and Eskisehirspor, averaging a goal or assist every 119 minutes throughout his career. On the day his signing was announced, Furlan said "With this signature, we send a message to our audience: we want to be the strongest, the best. "We want to continually advance the club ." However, Bienvenu will know now that he is competing with Gimbert and that can only be good for the visitors. Rincon returns to central defence replacing Florian Jarjat and this is a strong squad , full of goals, 19 in their last 9 competitive away starts, which included a 3-0 win here in Clermont at the end of last season.

Troyes will go top of Ligue 2 with a point, but all three would give them a healthy five point advantage over Nancy who are currently in fourth and given their normal style of play, it is impossible to see them coming here looking for anything other than a maximum return.

The visitors are 2-2-0 in Monday night road games, which all came against "big name" teams ( Nantes twice, Sochaux and Brest), Clermont are regulars in the televised fixture, but have only won one of the last 12, losing 7 of 9. Last of which was a 2-1 defeat at Valenciennes seven days ago.

They were two down there, but again scored very late, striker Idriss Saadi scored his sixth goal of the season and that is a wonderful return for a struggling team who have only managed five other goals and the scorer of two of those, Souleymane Sawadogo is missing this evening. They get Bockhorni back tonight, but still look short in terms of the backline and heavily reliant on Saadi, who will be watched like a hawk, upfront. He actually has 12 goals in 18 starts across the end of last and this season, but came up short in the aforementioned heavy home defeat to Troyes and the visitors will be confident they can again stop the supply to the 22yo, who must have a host of scouts watching his every move.

A win will take Clermont out of the bottom three and with a daunting trip to Dijon on Friday their only other start for 19 days, they will surely give everything to collect the win and that, I feel, will play into the hands of Troyes, who would be happy to go toe to toe and end to end, with any Ligue 2 team .

1.5 units Troyes -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.


Clermont : L'Hostis, Jeannin,Agounon, Avinel, Bockhorni, Martin, Lippini,Betsch, Capelle, Diogo, Ekobo, Hamdi, Moulin, Novillo, Salibur, Vidémont,Saadi.

Troyes: Denis Petric - Franck Grandel - Rincon - Matthieu Saunier - Lionel Carole - Guillaume Lacour - Quentin Othon - Jessy Pi - Thomas Ayasse - Benjamin Nivet - Yoann Court - Stéphane Darbion - Karim Azamoum - Khassa Camara - Henri Bienvenu - Corentin Jean.

Key stat: Troyes have led at the break in all three road wins this season and in their last five away victories in all comps.

Spain La Liga betting preview: Celta Vigo- Villarreal

Celta Vigo- Villarreal

Celta Vigo are unbeaten (3-3-0) and have been playing at a high level for the best part of a year, averaging over 1.63 points per game over their last 30 La Liga starts, which equates to 62 points over a full season, enough for sixth spot in each of the last two seasons and a Champions League spot in the two campiagns prior to that. They were scoring freely in pre season and against decent opposition and have carried that trait into the new season. The work that Luis Enrique begun, as been seemlessly carried on by Eduardo Berizzo and he is not afraid to rotate and use his squad, he made five changes from the team which won the Galacian derby with Deportivo for the trip to Eibar last week, where they took the spoils with a late goal and that depth will serve them well. However, he explained that the changes were not about simply resting players, saying :The team must be able to absorb changes and keep moving forward. The rotation of players shouldn’t be purely for allowing people game time, it should also enhance the team simultaneously.”

They are without Augusto Fernandez today, but he would have been very likely to have started and are otherwise at full strength.

Villarreal had a very pleasing first season back in the top flight posting a 6th place finish, that was not totally unexpected.

They strengthened in the summer and here we have two teams both looking to break into the top 4, or at least challenge. Long term I feel the visitors have the greater potential, but right now Celta are playing with a lot of confidence and the visitors look short defensively without Rukavina, Musacchio, Jokic and Jume Costa. That means just five defenders have made the trip, one has not played this season, another is just 17yo, they also played on Thursday in the Europa League and all 11 starters there, including the four likley defenders today started and that is far from ideal. Meanwhile, Vigo played on Friday of last week, so have had a full nine days to rest and prepare for this. H2h wise, Celta have not lost to Villarreal at home in the living memory of most players and took took four points off them last season.

1.5 units Celta Vigo -0.25 ball 2.21 asina line/Sportmarket.

Villarreal: Asenjo , Juan Carlos, Mario, Adrián Marín, Gabriel, Dorado , Víctor Ruiz, Trigueros, Bruno, Jonathan dos Santos, Cheryshev, Espinosa, Moi Gómez , Cani, Uche, Giovani, Gerard , Vietto.

Was this for real goals or total ?? Seems mad big price if for total goals, good spot.

We previewed the reverse fixture at the weekend ......"I feel it will be very tough for Timbers to win this, with injury and suspension ripping the heart out of the visitors, robbing them of two of the most influential midfielders in the MLS.

San Jose have a limited amount to play for, but are courting a new coach in Dominic Kinnear ( good choice, see above) and will want to impress and despite a ten match unbeaten run, they are better than that and have served us pretty well this season , especially with the 5-1 demolition of Chicago Fire, which was a "double " win and defeat of Seattle Sounders in the brand spanking new Levi's Stadium and they also drew 3-3 in Portland recently, where they led 2-0 and 3-2.



Timbers are without both Diego Valeri and Will Johnson. Over the last two seasons Valeri has missed just three matches, none this season, through which he has scored 20 goals and had 27 (!) assists and 163 attempts on goal, Johnson has only missed seven , he plays deeper, but has 17 goals and is the driving force in the team, Valeri the standout player. They have (very) occasionally had to deal without one, but now both are out together and it must feel like they are going into battle with a couple of limbs missing."

Earthquakes led there through a Chris Wondolowski goal, before Timbers found two late goals, it was a gritty hard earned win, which didn't look like coming, but missing their two most important players, it said plenty about the spirit in the squad and a follow up win tonight, would give the edge in that race for 5th place over Whitecaps, who do not play until Friday, when they visit Seattle, so three hugely valuable points up for grabs for the hosts. They will be without right back Alvas Powell who is away on international duty, he has just forced his way into a regular starting place, but his absence is more than compensated for by the missing on the other side of the pitch and return of Diego Valeri ( see above).

San Jose have lost central defender Victor Bernardez, midfielders Atiba Harris and Cordell Cato and striker Wondolowski to international duty, right back Pablo Pintos was sent off as time expired on Sunday and is suspended. All five played in that game, four as starters, the loss of Bernandez is huge with Clarence Goodson injured long term, Wondo is far and away their biggest offensive threat with 14 goals this season (three against Timbers) and 87 in the last five campaigns .

The two teams met here in Portland a month ago, that ended 3-3, Wondo and Cato scored all three between them, Valeri assisted for all three Timbers goals, with the hosts having a club record 32 attempts on goal, they also had 40 crosses into the box and with the visitors without a starting central defender tonight , that kind of relentless pressure is likely to be rewarded , especially with so much on the line.

1.5 units Portland Timbers -1 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.


They scored two on the road without Valeri, three at home last month and it should have been five, 2.75-2.90 for Portland to score over 2.5 goals looks big.