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Hedge Funds bet on Irish Default

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,961 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    Not surprised. One of the country's top economists, Morgan Kelly of UCD, said as much in an Irish Times article. on Saturday. It's worth reading for his explanation of where the trouble is. The government is reportedly very unhappy about what he said.

    This ties in to another thread going today, "Great Depression Mark II", which has links to other articles suggesting that things are about to change for the worse in the bond markets. That's how governments raise money: by selling bonds. When a government has a poor bond rating - as Ireland does - it has to offer a higher interest rate on the bonds, or else no-one will buy them. However, it looks like hedge funds may be pulling out of bond markets altogether, meaning that less money will be available for purchasing bond i.e. bonds will be even harder to sell. So governments will struggle to raise money to cover their obligations, increasing the likelihood of default ... which brings us back to Kelly's article.

    From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter of a million miles out and say, ‘Look at that, you son of a bitch’.

    — Edgar Mitchell, Apollo 14 Astronaut



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭skyhighflyer


    4 per cent of the near €80bn of Irish government debt was targeted by speculators and hedge funds using financial derivatives or credit default swaps

    Someone taking out a CDS on your debt doesn't mean that they're causing your default. If I stick €50 on a 50/1 shot at Punchestown, the fact of my putting money on the expected outcome doesn't make it any more likely.

    The 'casino banking', or capital markets units, of the Irish banks gamble the banks' money on a variety of financial instruments and derivative

    This comment was enough for me to write this author off as an idiot. Capital Markets exist to raise capital for corporations, not gamble using derivatives. Also, I can't see an Irish bank taking out a CDS on government debt beyond that which they hold themselves and for which they need to insure themselves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭EL_Loco


    If betting patterns were any indication of future results the favourite would always win the race.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,568 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    I love the way a lot of European countries are banning the variants of the gambling going on but the Irish Regulators have stated "there will be no change in regulations regarding Irish bonds."

    Typical attitude from these overpaid fcuks! These assholes still in their jobs - for sure we are/will be fcuked!
    The Irish regulators ONCE AGAIN are doing bugger all to help resolve the situation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,520 ✭✭✭dasdog


    Irish Miracle — or Mirage? (NY Times)

    Nothing to see here. Move along. The collapse of Lehman's is to blame according to Lenny.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,982 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    I hope for the hedge-fund executives' sakes, that they've all got 24/7 security. Some interested parties may take it to the next level.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 23,089 ✭✭✭✭rovert


    bnt wrote: »
    Not surprised. One of the country's top economists, Morgan Kelly of UCD, said as much in an Irish Times article. on Saturday. It's worth reading for his explanation of where the trouble is. The government is reportedly very unhappy about what he said.

    This ties in to another thread going today, "Great Depression Mark II", which has links to other articles suggesting that things are about to change for the worse in the bond markets. That's how governments raise money: by selling bonds. When a government has a poor bond rating - as Ireland does - it has to offer a higher interest rate on the bonds, or else no-one will buy them. However, it looks like hedge funds may be pulling out of bond markets altogether, meaning that less money will be available for purchasing bond i.e. bonds will be even harder to sell. So governments will struggle to raise money to cover their obligations, increasing the likelihood of default ... which brings us back to Kelly's article.

    Id place Morgan Kelly's opinion on the Irish economy over most of anyone elses.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 19,240 Mod ✭✭✭✭L.Jenkins



    If so, would people be happy to use the Púnt again! I know I would, as long as the exchange rate is good.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭dan719


    Biggins wrote: »
    I love the way a lot of European countries are banning the variants of the gambling going on but the Irish Regulators have stated "there will be no change in regulations regarding Irish bonds."

    Typical attitude from these overpaid fcuks! These assholes still in their jobs - for sure we are/will be fcuked!
    The Irish regulators ONCE AGAIN are doing bugger all to help resolve the situation.

    Er, we have had a new Governor of the Central Bank and a new Financial Regulator appointed since the start of the crisis. And if you look at Professor Kelly's article there closely, you'll notice he states that it is the presence of Patrick Holohan (a former Professor in TCD) that is stopping Irish bonds "becoming junk".


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,265 ✭✭✭SugarHigh




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭saywhatyousee


    did anyone watch the michael moore the documentry last night capitalism a love story ? shower of scumbags the people who trade in them CDS and derivitives how can something that nobody understands be legal?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,568 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    dan719 wrote: »
    ...you'll notice he states that it is the presence of Patrick Holohan (a former Professor in TCD) that is stopping Irish bonds "becoming junk".
    So (and I'm not contradicting you) one man because of his very presence, is going to effect others and what they do!!! :confused:
    He must be a hell of a man to be scared of!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,157 ✭✭✭Johnny Utah


    Bookies are for losers, I only use betfair.com :cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,534 ✭✭✭SV


    djhunter30 wrote: »
    If so, would people be happy to use the Púnt again! I know I would, as long as the exchange rate is good.

    back to the punt!
    that'd be great :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,025 ✭✭✭smallerthanyou


    The CDSs don't make default any more likely than if they weren't written. I know of a hedge fund that has written a few of them on US debt and the chance of that defaulting is miminal. As said in above post it's just a bet. It doesn't really mean that much. We'll be grand! (hopefully)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭Shiny


    SV wrote: »
    back to the punt!
    that'd be great :D

    But don't we become Iceland then...?

    ...or is that more bull**** that the media fed me....?:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,534 ✭✭✭SV


    Shiny wrote: »
    But don't we become Iceland then...?

    ...or is that more bull**** that the media fed me....?:(

    jaysus I dunno, I know about as much about the economy as I do about rocket science.


    Would anyone here please explain, in simple terms, what happens to the average Irish person if the euro collapses?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,408 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    SV wrote: »
    jaysus I dunno, I know about as much about the economy as I do about rocket science.


    Would anyone here please explain, in simple terms, what happens to the average Irish person if the euro collapses?
    Instant death apparently........


  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,024 Mod ✭✭✭✭G_R


    SV wrote: »
    jaysus I dunno, I know about as much about the economy as I do about rocket science.


    Would anyone here please explain, in simple terms, what happens to the average Irish person if the euro collapses?

    basically, your kids are seized by the state and sold on to russia or somewhere, im not sure of the exact details, its bad though...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,534 ✭✭✭SV


    any chance of a non AH answer in AH? :p

    btw I don't have kids so I'm happy!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,391 ✭✭✭✭mikom


    SV wrote: »
    jaysus I dunno, I know about as much about the economy as I do about rocket science.


    Would anyone here please explain, in simple terms, what happens to the average Irish person if the euro collapses?


    You know in Indiana Jones when the nazis opened the ark of the covenant........ well that, but with 10% extra Cowen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭Shiny


    SV wrote: »
    jaysus I dunno, I know about as much about the economy as I do about rocket science.

    Would anyone here please explain, in simple terms, what happens to the average Irish person if the euro collapses?

    I dunno either and hence why articles like Kelly's scare the **** out of
    me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭Sea Sharp


    Could we expect something similar to what happened in Argentina?
    From wikipedia:
    Argentina quickly lost the confidence of investors and the flight of money away from the country increased. In 2001, people fearing the worst began withdrawing large sums of money from their bank accounts, turning pesos into dollars and sending them abroad, causing a run on the banks. The government then enacted a set of measures (informally known as the corralito) that effectively froze all bank accounts for twelve months, allowing for only minor sums of cash to be withdrawn.
    Because of this allowance limit and the serious problems it caused in certain cases, many Argentines became enraged and took to the streets of important cities, especially Buenos Aires. They engaged in a form of popular protest that became known as cacerolazo (banging pots and pans). These protests occurred especially in 2001 and 2002. At first the cacerolazos were simply noisy demonstrations, but soon they included property destruction, often directed at banks, foreign privatized companies, and especially big American and European companies. Many businesses installed metal barriers because windows and glass facades were being broken, and even fires being ignited at their doors. Billboards of such companies as Coca Cola and others were brought down by the masses of demonstrators.
    Confrontations between the police and citizens became a common sight, and fires were also set on Buenos Aires avenues. Fernando de la Rúa declared a state of emergency but this only worsened the situation, precipitating the violent protests of 20 and 21 December 2001 in Plaza de Mayo, where demonstrators clashed with the police, ended with several dead, and precipitated the fall of the government. De la Rúa eventually fled the Casa Rosada in a helicopter on 21 December.


    Amid rioting, President Fernando de la Rua resigns, December 21, 2001.
    Since De la Rúa's vice president, Carlos Álvarez, had resigned in October 2000, a political crisis ensued. Following presidential succession procedures established in the Constitution, the president of the Senate Ramón Puerta took office and the Legislative Assembly (a body formed by merging both chambers of the Congress) was convened. By law, the candidates were the members of the Senate plus the Governors of the Provinces; they finally appointed Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, then governor of San Luis. During the last week of 2001, the interim government led by Rodríguez Saá, facing the impossibility of meeting debt payments, defaulted on the larger part of the public debt, totalling no less than $132 billion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭thee glitz


    The CDSs don't make default any more likely than if they weren't written. I know of a hedge fund that has written a few of them on US debt and the chance of that defaulting is miminal.
    Who was dumb enough to buy CDS protection on US debt? The day that Treasury bills don't pay up will
    be the death of capitalism in America. I know of investment funds which buy soverign CDS protection and,
    so far, none have done so for Irish debt.
    did anyone watch the michael moore the documentry last night capitalism a love story ? shower of scumbags the people who trade in them CDS and derivitives how can something that nobody understands be legal?
    I saw it. To be fair, CDS aren't that difficult to understand. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with
    them either. If you put your life savings into a few bonds, would you be at all interested in insurance
    on them? The problem with hedge fund managers buying CDS on national debt is only that it's reported.
    This leads to less confidence in those country's bonds and less demand for the currency in which
    it's denominated. Unfortunately, in this case, buying insurace against an event happening can make
    it more likely to happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,591 ✭✭✭RATM


    FF & Cowen position:- 'We've turned a corner'

    Morgan Kelly & David McWilliams position:- 'there's going to be a run on the banks and a massive debt collapse. It's now not a matter of if, but when'

    Now who do you believe, the government or two separate independent economists both preaching the same song?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,408 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    What gets me is that the Euro against the dollar/sterling is nowhere near how it was around 2001/2/3/4 yet there is massive angst amoung many.
    Theres a lot of people out there who are going to and have made serious money out of all this speculation (either way). There has to be some way of calming the whole thing down.
    A run on the banks would spell a serious financial disaster for this country and Europe in general. Back to barter I say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    RATM wrote: »
    FF & Cowen position:- 'We've turned a corner'

    Morgan Kelly & David McWilliams position:- 'there's going to be a run on the banks and a massive debt collapse. It's now not a matter of if, but when'

    Now who do you believe, the government or two separate independent economists both preaching the same song?

    That's a no brainer, 2 experts or the corrupt and incompetent FF self congratulating party.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    RATM wrote: »
    FF & Cowen position:- 'We've turned a corner'

    Morgan Kelly & David McWilliams position:- 'there's going to be a run on the banks and a massive debt collapse. It's now not a matter of if, but when'

    Now who do you believe, the government or two separate independent economists both preaching the same song?


    The government obviously.


    /Sarcasm.

    :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭Mister men


    Don't panic keep shopping.
















    Clears an hour off work tomorrow for a trip to the bank to withdraw cash.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    RATM wrote: »
    FF & Cowen position:- 'We've turned a corner'

    Morgan Kelly & David McWilliams position:- 'there's going to be a run on the banks and a massive debt collapse. It's now not a matter of if, but when'

    Now who do you believe, the government or two separate independent economists both preaching the same song?

    Well we have a government that has access to all the facts, the best expert opinion from a multitude of sources.

    Or two economists who may have their own agenda.

    The Euro won't collapse, it is simply to big to fail. We will have Bretton Woods 2 before governments let commerce fail. Currency and economies are entirely man made constructs, they follow rules set out by people. So if the rules don't work, change them. Thats what will happen in the long term.


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