Gameweek Odds Thread - FPL 2015/2016

Paully D · 03-08-2015 10:53pm #1

Thought this was a cracking idea for a thread last season from bored_newbie, so why not get it going for the full season?

I've used the best odds from Oddschecker used for these prices. I've also handpicked anytime goalscorers from each game to keep it to popular/possibly interesting FPL players as for example, using the opening kick off game, some bookmakers have Hernandez a shorter price than Harry Kane. However, in terms of FPL, lets be honest - no one cares what price Hernandez is whereas we're all interested in Kane's odds.

Gameweek 1 Odds:

Manchester United vs Tottenham

Clean sheet:

Manchester United (11/8) vs Tottenham (11/2)

Anytime goalscorer:

Rooney (11/8), Depay (11/5), Kane (13/5), Mata (27/10), Eriksen (51/10)

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Clean sheet:

Bournemouth (6/4) vs Aston Villa (3/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Wilson (19/10), Ritchie (3/1), Ayew (10/3), Gestede (4/1), Sinclair (15/2)

Everton vs Watford

Clean sheet:

Everton (6/4) vs Watford (5/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Lukaku (6/4), Mirallas (45/17), Igahlo (3/1), Deeney (3/1), Barkley (31/10), Baines (11/2)

Leicester vs Sunderland

Clean sheet:

Leicester (6/4) vs Sunderland (3/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Ulloa (37/19), Kramaric (12/5), Vardy (13/5), Defoe (37/13), Mahrez (51/10)

Norwich vs Palace

Clean sheet:

Norwich (19/10) vs Palace (12/5)

Anytime goalscorer:

Jerome (23/10), Hooper/Grabban (12/5), Bamford/Wickham (3/1), Bolasie (19/4), Cabaye (5/1), Redmond (11/2), Brady (6/1)

Chelsea vs Swansea

Clean sheet:

Chelsea (10/11) vs Swansea (15/2)

Anytime goalscorer:

Costa (10/11), Hazard (31/21), Falcao (8/5), Fabregas (4/1), Terry (6/1), Ivanovic (7/1), Sigurdsson (15/2), Ayew (15/2)

Arsenal vs West Ham

Clean sheet:

Arsenal (20/23) vs West Ham (10/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Giroud (22/23), Walcott (4/3), Ozil (28/13), Ramsey/Cazorla (28/11), Sakho (21/4)

Newcastle vs Southampton

Clean sheet:

Newcastle (11/4) vs Southampton (11/4)

Anytime goalscorer:

Pelle (39/19), Cisse (27/11), Juanmi (5/2) Mane (11/4), Mitrovic (29/10), Wijnaldum (27/5)

Stoke vs Liverpool

Clean sheet:

Stoke (14/5) vs Liverpool (2/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Benteke (7/4), Diouf (11/4), Crouch (29/10), Firmino (16/5), Coutinho (19/5), Milner (23/4), Henderson (13/2)

West Brom vs Manchester City

Clean sheet:

West Brom (11/2) vs Manchester City (6/4)

Anytime goalscorer:

Aguero (5/4), Bony (3/2), Silva (27/10), Yaya (11/4), Berahino (37/13), Sterling (3/1), Lambert (39/10)

manual_man · 03-08-2015 10:55pm

great work Paully

dahat · 03-08-2015 10:58pm

Off topic but that 13/2 Hendo to score anytime in a gift imo.

8-10 · 03-08-2015 11:02pm

dahat wrote: »

Off topic but that 13/2 Hendo to score anytime in a gift imo.

I like Villa 3/1 to keep a clean sheet against a promoted club.

Invincible · 03-08-2015 11:57pm

Arsenal lads are fierce short price to score!

zarquon · 06-08-2015 12:58am

According to FFS:

According to the bookies, the best Gw1 team is something like this (Odds are for CS for defenders and To score anytime for attackers):

Hart (5/4) Ruddy (7/4)

Azpili (4/5) Mertesacker (4/5) Francis (11/8) Bassong (7/4) Targett (2/1)

Sterling (Evens) Walcott (Evens) Hazard (10/11) Depay (Evens) Ritchie (2/1)

Giroud (8/13) Lukaku (Evens) Rooney (Evens)

Paully D · 06-08-2015 1:14am

zarquon wrote: »

According to FFS:

I'd love to be that blokes bookie. :pac:

You can get someone like Depay at 11/5 anytime, Rooney 11/8, Sterling has gone out from 3/1 to 31/10, etc.

Ocditsme · 06-08-2015 3:33pm

Keep up the good work paulie. I'll be keeping a good eye on your posts.

Ziegler1988 · 06-08-2015 3:39pm

Sunderland cleanie odds seem high to me. If I stick with Gomez, I was going to play Coates over him but the odds say otherwise

zarquon · 06-08-2015 3:52pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Sunderland cleanie odds seem high to me. If I stick with Gomez, I was going to play Coates over him but the odds say otherwise

I have to agree there. Have a similar dilemna myself between Cedric and O'Shea. I think it's a toss up but the bookies say differently.

Ziegler1988 · 06-08-2015 4:03pm

zarquon wrote: »

I have to agree there. Have a similar dilemna myself between Cedric and O'Shea. I think it's a toss up but the bookies say differently.

Leicester were scoring for fun end of the season under Pearson, but I don't think Rainieri is known for that and he's changed a few of the starters

98q76e12hrflnk · 07-08-2015 6:17pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Leicester were scoring for fun end of the season under Pearson, but I don't think Rainieri is known for that and he's changed a few of the starters

What kind of manager is Rainieri for his team, as in defensive like pulis or very attacking like villa or balanced?

Ziegler1988 · 07-08-2015 6:21pm

declan2693 wrote: »

What kind of manager is Rainieri for his team, as in defensive like pulis or very attacking like villa or balanced?

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/07/19/moving-target-claudio-ranieri/

I've put Gomez in the starting XI over Coates now due to the odds and that Stoke have been pretty crap at scoring in preseason. It feels like a coin flip to me though

Ocditsme · 10-08-2015 11:41am

So paulie.. we're hungry for more stats.
Dont 4get us...

FHFC · 10-08-2015 12:17pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/07/19/moving-target-claudio-ranieri/

I've put Gomez in the starting XI over Coates now due to the odds and that Stoke have been pretty crap at scoring in preseason. It feels like a coin flip to me though

Only reading this now too.

Salt. Wounds.

Paully D · 10-08-2015 11:19pm

Ocditsme wrote: »

So paulie.. we're hungry for more stats.
Dont 4get us...

I'm way too hungover and disappointed after that first gameweek, but **** it :pac:

Gameweek 2 Odds

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Clean sheet:

Villa (17/4) vs United (5/4)

Anytime goalscorer:

Rooney (7/5), Depay (21/10), Mata (27/10), Ayew (17/4), Gestede (9/2)

Southampton vs Everton

Clean sheet:

Saints (6/4) vs Everton (31/10)

Anytime goalscorer:

Pelle (9/5), Long (40/17), Mane (12/5), Tadic (56/19), Lukaku (3/1), Kone (10/3)

Sunderland vs Norwich

Clean sheet:

Sunderland (2/1) vs Norwich (5/2)

Anytime goalscorer:

Defoe/Fletcher (23/10), Jerome (13/5), Grabban (29/10), Lens/Johnson (19/5), Redmond (53/10)

Swansea vs Newcastle

Clean sheet:

Swansea (6/4) vs Newcastle (16/5)

Anytime goalscorer:

Gomis (9/5), Ayew (28/11), Sigurdsson (11/4), Cisse (11/4), Wijnaldum (5/1)

Spurs vs Stoke

Clean sheet:

Spurs (7/5) vs Stoke (4/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Kane (20/19), Eriksen (23/10), Lamela/Chadli (11/4), Diouf (10/3)

Watford vs West Brom

Clean sheet:

Watford (9/4) vs West Brom (14/5)

Anytime goalscorer:

Deeny (7/4), Ighalo (19/10), Berahino (23/10), Rondon (11/4), Lambert (3/1)

West Ham vs Leicester

Clean sheet:

West Ham (11/5) vs Leicester (31/10)

Anytime goalscorer:

Sakho (2/1), Zarate (12/5), Vardy (11/4), Okazaki (29/10), Payet (56/19)

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Clean sheet:

Palace (21/5) vs Arsenal (7/5)

Anytime goalscorer:

Giroud (6/4), Sanchez (13/8), Walcott (28/17), Ozil/Ramsey/Cazorla (7/2), Murray (4/1), Bamford (17/4), Wickham (9/2)

Man City vs Chelsea

Clean sheet:

City (19/10) vs Chelsea (10/3)

Anytime goalscorer:

Aguero (8/5), Costa (39/19), Hazard (14/5), Silva/Sterling (31/10), Yaya (10/3)

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Clean sheet:

Liverpool (5/4) vs Bournemouth (7/1)

Anytime goalscorer:

Benteke (5/6), Firmino (24/13), Coutinho (28/13), Milner (18/5), Wilson (15/4) Henderson (5/1), Ritchie (13/2)

- So Benteke is the only player odds on to score this weekend. Kane is the next fancied player to score. Players with both of those will be confident.

- No team is odds on to keep a clean sheet this week, but only Chelsea were in GW1. Liverpool and United are the teams the bookies fancy most to keep a clean sheet this week, closely followed by Arsenal.

Ocditsme · 13-08-2015 5:27am

Super work again.
Cheers paulie.

8-10 · 13-08-2015 9:34am

8-10 wrote: »

I like Villa 3/1 to keep a clean sheet against a promoted club.

This worked out nicely

Dice75 · 13-08-2015 1:47pm

This seems like the appropriate thread.

A few were on this last week & hit the crossbar with Mahrez @ 250/1.

Gonna try and look at some outside value again...

https://www.betbright.com/football//outrights/england/fantasy-premier-league

Edit - Gonna try Clyne (Bournemouth H) & Tadic (Everton H) both at 250/1

jimmii · 13-08-2015 2:20pm

Dice75 wrote: »

This seems like the appropriate thread.

A few were on this last week & hit the crossbar with Mahrez @ 250/1.

Gonna try and look at some outside value again...

https://www.betbright.com/football//outrights/england/fantasy-premier-league

Edit - Gonna try Clyne (Bournemouth H) & Tadic (Everton H) both at 250/1

They both look good shouts at that price we know Tadic has a 20 pointer deep down inside him too!

spock. · 13-08-2015 5:18pm

Took Cresswell, Clyne, Tadic and Smalling all at 250/1

jimmii · 13-08-2015 5:19pm

spock. wrote: »

Took Cresswell, Clyne, Tadic and Smalling all at 250/1

Good luck! If we get a 250/1 sweat again I'll have to jump on next week!

Dice75 · 20-08-2015 6:21pm

jimmii wrote: »

Good luck! If we get a 250/1 sweat again I'll have to jump on next week!

One of the lads who also posts here had Lukaku @250s & Everton @150s last week.

No odds up yet this week!

jimmii · 20-08-2015 6:26pm

Dice75 wrote: »

One of the lads who also posts here had Lukaku @250s & Everton @150s last week.

No odds up yet this week!

Nice! What was the Everton bet? Them to have top scoring player or highest scoring starting 11?

Maybe they have taken a bit of a hammering on it and are rethinking their approach!

Dice75 · 20-08-2015 6:42pm

jimmii wrote: »

Nice! What was the Everton bet? Them to have top scoring player or highest scoring starting 11?

Maybe they have taken a bit of a hammering on it and are rethinking their approach!

Top overall scoring team (tied with City)

Iused2likebusts · 20-08-2015 6:43pm

Dice75 wrote: »

One of the lads who also posts here had Lukaku @250s & Everton @150s last week.

No odds up yet this week!

I remember looking at this last week and thinking lukaku I think he was 180-1 was cracking value. Did he end up highest pts scorer

spock. · 20-08-2015 11:08pm

I'm going to give Paully D a break this week.

Man Utd v Newcastle
C.S: Evens v 7/1
AGS: Rooney(evens), Depay(6/4), Mata(15/8), Januzaj(11/4), Mitrovic(9/2), Wijnaldum(6/1)

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
C.S: 11/8 v 10/3
AGS: Wickham(2/1), Murray(2/1), Gestede(10/3), Puncheon/Cabaye(10/3), Zaha(7/2), Bolasie(9/2), Agbonlahor(9/2)

Leicester v Spurs
C.S: 14/5 V 29/10
AGS: Kane(6/4), Vardy(23/10), Okazaki(12/5), Eriksen(11/4), Mahrez(3/1), Chadli(10/3)

Norwich v Stoke
C.S: 9/5 V 5/2
AGS: Jerome(5/2), Diouf(5/2), Shaqiri(7/2), Hoolahan(9/2), Redmond(5/1)

Sunderland v Swansea
C.S: 14/5 v 6/4
AGS: Gomis(7/4), Ayew(12/5), Siggy(10/3), Defoe(11/4), Montero(9/2)

West Ham v Bournemouth
C.S: 11/5 v 3/1
AGS: Sakho(9/5), Wilson(9/4), Payet(11/4), Ritchie(5/1)

West Brom v Chelsea
C.S: 4/1 v 11/10
AGS: Costa (6/5), Hazard(9/5), Pedro(11/5), Lambert/Berahino(4/1) Fabregas(9/2)

Everton v Man City
C.S: 11/2 v 9/5
AGS: Aguero (19/20), Sterling(2/1), Silva(9/4), Lukaku(12/5), Yaya(12/5), Barkley(5/1)

Watford v Southampton
C.S: 21/10 v 21/10
AGS: Deeney(11/5), Pelle(11/5), Ighalo(5/2), JRod(11/4), Mane(3/1), Tadic(15/4)

Arsenal v Liverpool
C.S: 17/10 v 5/1
AGS: Giroud (6/4), Sanchez(13/8), Benteke(21/10), Ramsey(11/4), Ozil/Cazorla(7/2)

No team are odds on for a clean sheet but Utd and Chelsea are the shortest odds.
Aguero is the only player odds on to score

Paully D · 21-08-2015 12:40am

Thanks, Spock. I was thinking "FFS, I better get this done at some stage tomorrow" when I saw this thread was bumped this evening :pac:

Bookies were spot on last week with Benteke odds-on to score and Liverpool and United keeping clean sheets. Hopefully similar this week with them fancying Aguero (though he'll probably be rightly odds-on every week from now) and a United clean sheet.

jimmii · 21-08-2015 9:26am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I remember looking at this last week and thinking lukaku I think he was 180-1 was cracking value. Did he end up highest pts scorer

Yeh he did

spock. · 21-08-2015 4:41pm

Dice75 wrote: »

One of the lads who also posts here had Lukaku @250s & Everton @150s last week.

No odds up yet this week!

Market up for this week
https://www.betbright.com/football/outrights/england/fantasy-premier-league

jimmii · 21-08-2015 5:38pm

spock. wrote: »

Market up for this week
https://www.betbright.com/football/outrights/england/fantasy-premier-league

Wow Aguero 9/4 is pretty crazy wouldn't be going near that. They seem to have learnt their lesson the 250s don't look so appealing this week.

Tadic is listed at 150/1 and 250/1?! At 250s he could be an interesting one to go with we all know he has it in him.

km79 · 21-08-2015 6:37pm

Ivanovic 250\1
he says in hope

CSF · 21-08-2015 6:55pm

km79 wrote: »

Ivanovic 250\1
he says in hope

Rumours he will be dropped

km79 · 21-08-2015 7:10pm

CSF wrote: »

Rumours he will be dropped

again like van aanholt he was poor
but I don't know if he will be dropped
I think José will give them a chance to redeem themselves
but he is GONE from my team forever when I wildcard
got him for the 1st time for last season for last 1\3 of the season
solid one and 2 pointers all the way
feared his customary early season form so ignored how poor he and Chelsea looked in preseason

Iused2likebusts · 21-08-2015 7:34pm

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

spock. · 21-08-2015 8:53pm

Iused2likebusts wrote:

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

Yeah Kolarov is the only one I've gone for this week.

Iused2likebusts · 23-08-2015 7:29pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

Close with kolorav 160/1 I think.

Paully D · 26-08-2015 11:36pm

Here we go with Gameweek 4's odds. I'm going to use Spock's template from now on as it's a little quicker to type out.

Newcastle v Arsenal

CS: 11/2 v 27/20
AGS: Giroud (13/10), Alexis (6/4), Walcott (7/4), Ramsey (3/1), Mitrovic (10/3), Ozil (7/2)

Aston Villa v Sunderland

CS: 13/10 v 16/5
AGS: Gestede (39/20), Ayew (9/4), Defoe (16/5), Sinclair (37/10), Lens (23/4)

Bournemouth v Leicester

CS: 21/10 v 10/3
AGS: Wilson (15/8), Vardy (11/4), Ritchie (10/3), Mahrez (41/10), Albrighton (7/1)

Chelsea v Palace

CS: 19/20 v 15/2
AGS: Costa (19/20), Hazard (29/20), Pedro (9/5), Fabregas (4/1), Murray/Wickham/Bamford (5/1)

Liverpool v West Ham

CS: 19/20 v 8/1
AGS: Benteke (21/20), Firmino (7/4), Coutinho (2/1), Sakho (4/1), Payet (6/1)

Manchester City v Watford

CS: EVS v 14/1
AGS: Aguero (4/6), Sterling (15/8), Silva (2/1), Yaya (9/4), Deeney (5/1)

Stoke v West Brom

CS: 13/10 v 3/1
AGS: Diouf (2/1), Shaqiri (31/10), Walters (11/4), Berahino/Rondon (7/2), Arnautovic (19/5)

Tottenham v Everton

CS: 15/8 v 19/5
AGS: Kane (6/5), Eriksen (5/2), Chadli/Lukaku (11/4), Kone/Mirallas (4/1)

Southampton v Norwich

CS: 8/5 v 18/5
AGS: Pelle (6/4), J-Rod/Mane/Long (9/4), Jerome (14/5), Tadic (3/1), Hoolohan (4/1) Redmond (13/2)

Swansea v Manchester United

CS: 11/4 v 7/4
AGS: Rooney (21/10), Depay (40/17), Gomis (5/2), Mata (18/5), Ayew (19/5)

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

- Only 2 players are odds-on to score this week, they are Aguero and Costa. Benteke and Kane are the next two most fancied goalscorers.

- Off topic, but my personal opinion is that Pedro (9/5) and Mahrez (41/10) look good value as anytime goalscorers if you're having a punt.

Lemlin · 26-08-2015 11:40pm

Paully D wrote: »

Here we go with Gameweek 4's odds. I'm going to use Spock's template from now on as it's a little quicker to type out.

Newcastle v Arsenal

CS: 11/2 v 27/20
AGS: Giroud (13/10), Alexis (6/4), Walcott (7/4), Ramsey (3/1), Mitrovic (10/3), Ozil (7/2)

Aston Villa v Sunderland

CS: 13/10 v 16/5
AGS: Gestede (39/20), Ayew (9/4), Defoe (16/5), Sinclair (37/10), Lens (23/4)

Bournemouth v Leicester

CS: 21/10 v 10/3
AGS: Wilson (15/8), Vardy (11/4), Ritchie (10/3), Mahrez (41/10), Albrighton (7/1)

Chelsea v Palace

CS: 19/20 v 15/2
AGS: Costa (19/20), Hazard (29/20), Pedro (9/5), Fabregas (4/1), Murray/Wickham/Bamford (5/1)

Liverpool v West Ham

CS: 19/20 v 8/1
AGS: Benteke (21/20), Firmino (7/4), Coutinho (2/1), Sakho (4/1), Payet (6/1)

Manchester City v Watford

CS: EVS v 14/1
AGS: Aguero (4/6), Sterling (15/8), Silva (2/1), Yaya (9/4), Deeney (5/1)

Stoke v West Brom

CS: 13/10 v 3/1
AGS: Diouf (2/1), Shaqiri (31/10), Walters (11/4), Berahino/Rondon (7/2), Arnautovic (19/5)

Tottenham v Everton

CS: 15/8 v 19/5
AGS: Kane (6/5), Eriksen (5/2), Chadli/Lukaku (11/4), Kone/Mirallas (4/1)

Southampton v Norwich

CS: 8/5 v 18/5
AGS: Pelle (6/4), J-Rod/Mane/Long (9/4), Jerome (14/5), Tadic (3/1), Hoolohan (4/1) Redmond (13/2)

Swansea v Manchester United

CS: 11/4 v 7/4
AGS: Rooney (21/10), Depay (40/17), Gomis (5/2), Mata (18/5), Ayew (19/5)

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

- Only 2 players are odds-on to score this week, they are Aguero and Costa. Perhaps surprisingly, Rooney is the same price to score away to Swansea as Benteke is to bag at home to West Ham.

- Off topic, but my personal opinion is that Pedro (9/5) and Mahrez (41/10) look good value as anytime goalscorers if you're having a punt.

Is Benteke not 21/20 (near enough evens) and Rooney 21/10 (2/1 basically)?

I could be getting that arseways but that's my reading of it above. I'm not a huge gambler.

Paully D · 26-08-2015 11:42pm

Lemlin wrote: »

Is Benteke not 21/20 (near enough evens) and Rooney 21/10 (2/1 basically)?

You're correct. I thought it was strange when I was typing it out. I've just been looking at so many different odds over the past half an hour :pac: Will edit my post now. Cheers

PARlance · 27-08-2015 12:02am

Paully D wrote: »

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

Lemlin · 27-08-2015 6:52am

PARlance wrote: »

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

PARlance · 27-08-2015 9:02am

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

Afaik, odds like first goalscorer, AGS, CS are all very static... in that they are set by the bookies in advance and rarely fluctuate. 99.9% of odds will be in favour of the bookie in the sense that they'll set them with a premium in mind.

Re cases like Dublin, that would be more akin to a horse race imo, in that it would be a big betting market with volatility. Even though the team mightn't change and a horse remains the same horse he was 5 mins ago... the bookies will shorten the price to reduce their exposure if they see lots of money being placed on it/them.

But yes, I would think they would take more of a premium for a popular team like Chelsea as opposed to a similar team (in terms of chances of conceding in a lower league) because they know punters look at the outcome of the bet more so than the value within it.

The last time I was surprised at the bookies being so favourable (as City Evs CS) with odds on here was Sunderland 7/2 to bet Newcastle at home when Sun were flying and New in a rut. That was my last football bet and City Evs will be my next.

AdMMM · 27-08-2015 9:05am

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

GAA is different because it's quite a small market and it wouldn't take too many large bets to trigger a price movement in one direction or another.

Also, most of the money doesn't go on these markets until the last 24 hours in the run-up to the game, especially the more niche markets.

Iused2likebusts · 27-08-2015 9:18am

Some interesting odds. Hopefully they are right about mahrez''s chances of another goal. I think after aguero kolorav is the best captain option this week.

FHFC · 27-08-2015 10:40am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Some interesting odds. Hopefully they are right about mahrez''s chances of another goal. I think after aguero kolorav is the best captain option this week.

He scores when he wants. He scores when he wants.
Riyad Mahrez. He scores when he wants!!

spock. · 27-08-2015 12:24pm

Mahrez at over 4/1 away to Bournemouth is odd when he was 7/2 best price away to West Ham iirc and he's scored twice since then.

I wouldn't be totally against him blanking though, as a Francis clean sheet is more of a differential than a Mahrez goal.

Paully D · 27-08-2015 5:12pm

PARlance wrote: »

The last time I was surprised at the bookies being so favourable (as City Evs CS) with odds on here was Sunderland 7/2 to bet Newcastle at home when Sun were flying and New in a rut. That was my last football bet and City Evs will be my next.

Ah, good times.

PARlance · 29-08-2015 9:21am

Going to go against the bookies on the Liverpool CS and start Kolarov, Darmian & Richards... leaving Gomez & Targett on the bench.

Going with my gut on this, West Ham have been hot and cold but they're still scoring.

PARlance · 29-08-2015 6:45pm

PARlance wrote: »

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

^^^
The only positive from this weekend. Drinks are on Paddy this weekend, bit of change left over to buy a ticket to see Mayo too

km79 · 29-08-2015 7:00pm

PARlance wrote: »

^^^
The only positive from this weekend. Drinks are on Paddy this weekend, bit of change left over to buy a ticket to see Mayo too

good luck finding one

Gameweek Odds Thread - FPL 2015/2016

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