Sussex Stakes

swimming in a sea · 26-07-2012 3:58pm #1

Oh can't wait for this race:rolleyes:

So Frankel is probably going to meet the weakest field in his career on August 1st in the Sussex Stakes.

I Just hope its a nice warm-up for the York International.

Overthelast · 26-07-2012 5:35pm

Ditto. I'm fortunate enough to be heading over. Not a betting race for me, simply a race to enjoy & I hope all current entries stand their ground on the day. I watched last years renewal from the steps of the parade ring at the Galway Races on the big screen & was blown away by his performance. Hoping for something similar (am I asking too much?!).

Sterling is very expensive at the moment. For those looking to cut out cost of commission, I discovered the ould Post Office is competitive on rates.

Now, must dash - trying to get a get a nice shirt to go with my panama hat

ft9 · 26-07-2012 6:30pm

Overthelast wrote: »

Ditto. I'm fortunate enough to be heading over. Not a betting race for me, simply a race to enjoy & I hope all current entries stand their ground on the day. I watched last years renewal from the steps of the parade ring at the Galway Races on the big screen & was blown away by his performance. Hoping for something similar (am I asking too much?!).

Sterling is very expensive at the moment. For those looking to cut out cost of commission, I discovered the ould Post Office is competitive on rates.

Now, must dash - trying to get a get a nice shirt to go with my panama hat

Before Cheltenham last March I was buying 600 sterling and the post office were only €4 cheaper than the bank.

tryfix · 26-07-2012 6:56pm

I'm looking forward to seeing Frankel taking on a proper 10f Gp1 horse like Farhh in this race. Farhh won't be good enough to beat him over 8f, but if he can close in on Frankel at the finish it'll give us an idea of how Frankel rates against the proper 10f to 12f horses. If Frankel blows away Farhh and they both pull clear, then there's little doubt that Frankel will stay 10f comfortably. If Frankel just gets home from Farhh in the sussex, he'll look vulnerable in the Juddmonte and the top 10f horses won't be afraid of taking him on.

tryfix · 30-07-2012 12:20pm

The Sussex is down to four runners, Frankel and his pacemaker Bullet Train, the 10f horse Farhh and Gabrial a horse who's never even placed in a Group race. Very disappointing turnout, but he can only race with what's put in front of him.

TheMilkyPirate · 30-07-2012 2:36pm

Send him over 10f already, He can't be beaten over a mile most likely over 10f either, And tbh at a stretch i'd say 12f. His full brother Noble mission stays 12f no problem, What's to suggest Frankel won't?

They'll up him to 10f for two races he'll blow the opposition away and everyone will be wondering what could have been.

swimming in a sea · 30-07-2012 3:00pm

baraca wrote: »

Send him over 10f already, He can't be beaten over a mile most likely over 10f either, And tbh at a stretch i'd say 12f. His full brother Noble mission stays 12f no problem, What's to suggest Frankel won't?

They'll up him to 10f for two races he'll blow the opposition away and everyone will be wondering what could have been.

true, is there anyway i wonder could he win the York international in such a way that connections could go for the Arc. Maybe if he stretches away and puts 6-7 lenghts in last furlong between himself and a top class 12f horse like
st-nic-abbey.

It would have to be prince abdullah's call though as Henry Cecil seems very stuck in his ways.

Zarkandar · 30-07-2012 3:05pm

Frankel is achieving/proving nothing by winning this race again, the reputation of this horse is being damaging by connections not letting me run in proper races like the Eclipse. He's never run outside England and never over at any trips outside of 7f or 8f, talk about unambitious.

Also saw the trends for this race, why aren't a few good 3yos running, they seem to do well with their allowance, won last 4. I know there's no 3yo miler who can beat Frankel but running him within 5 lengths would grow the stature of any 3yo

UrbanSea · 30-07-2012 3:18pm

4 runners, one a pace maker. Why are there no fillies in here trying to get a bit of black type?

Zarkandar · 30-07-2012 3:24pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

4 runners, one a pace maker. Why are there no fillies in here trying to get a bit of black type?

Pacemaker and 2 horses that have won class 2 handicaps but never even won a listed race (though I know Farhh's run well in group 1's). Prize money for 2nd-3rd-4th isn't bad, pretty crazy others haven't tried to get some of it

ArmaniJeanss · 30-07-2012 3:25pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

4 runners, one a pace maker. Why are there no fillies in here trying to get a bit of black type?

Its easy in hindsight when it breaks down to 4 runners to wish you'd run your 100 rated mare to get type.
But to get to the 48 hour decs stage you'd have had to pay three entry stages and there'd always be a possibility of it ending up a 15 runner high quality affair.

UrbanSea · 30-07-2012 3:29pm

There'd usually be one half decent fully and with no Excelebration entered that would have been at least an improvement for perspective runners. Anyone any idea how many runners were entered before this?

ArmaniJeanss · 30-07-2012 3:36pm

Fairly sure I read there was 8 at the 5day stage.
And accrding to this there was 37 initial entries in May but sadly doesn't list them all.
http://www.goodwood.co.uk/horse-racing/news/articles/frankel-heads-37-entries-for-qipco-sussex-stakes.aspx
There would also have been a second confirmation stage in early July.

swimming in a sea · 30-07-2012 5:14pm

a field of 4 so depressing, 3 runners really with bullet train in it.

only way maybe if dettori manages to get queally with mind games, frankel to good though even if queally has a bad ride.

UrbanSea · 30-07-2012 5:48pm

I'd nearly like to see Frankel beaten in this so others won't be afraid to take him on. In all honesty it'd have to be tactics to beat him though

Overthelast · 30-07-2012 6:05pm

Race has cut up real bad. Pity, it's just going to be like a gallops workout. Oh well...

mike65 · 31-07-2012 11:03am

I'm shocked and amazed - the pot is huge surely picking up a big cheque for not winning would have tempted connections who might have a progressive horse 100+ rated horse who can have its first go at Group 1?

aidan24326 · 31-07-2012 2:08pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd nearly like to see Frankel beaten in this so others won't be afraid to take him on. In all honesty it'd have to be tactics to beat him though

There should be a few more to take him on when he goes up to 10F. Hopefully. It's a shame he'll probably never meet Camelot though.

And there's surely no way he can be beaten in this one, tactics or otherwise. If Frankel runs to anything near his best it's hard to see it being anything other than a procession. Seems a bit pointless him running in this again. Was obvious that his demolition job the last day was going to scare all the milers away so why not go up in trip now? All the indications are that he'll stay 10F comfortably.

hucklebuck · 01-08-2012 8:24am

YAWN.

Yet another race for Frankel in his comfort zone, no matter how he wins it will be an "incredible performance by Frankel" throw in the word "superlative" and groundhog day.

I hope Dettori heads for the front and trys use stamina to give his horse an outside chance.

RichieLawlor · 01-08-2012 12:08pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

YAWN.

Yet another race for Frankel in his comfort zone, no matter how he wins it will be an "incredible performance by Frankel" throw in the word "superlative" and groundhog day.

I hope Dettori heads for the front and trys use stamina to give his horse an outside chance.

I think the godolphin could join in after a furlong and still get hammered today

hucklebuck · 01-08-2012 12:14pm

Most definitely but would like to see the only half decent horse who runs over 10f at least try something different though Dettori will probably just give his usual ride, sit behind and wait!!!!

Colonel Sanders · 01-08-2012 1:07pm

Frankel being matched at 1.05 on Betfair eventhough Farhh is 20 to lay. Not only is laying at 20 better than backing at 1.05 you also get the 2 rags running for you as a bonus.

Same thing happens all the time in sports with 2 outcomes when the favourite is long odds on (eg a tennis match in the early rounds of a Grand Slam)

Prices might be 1.04 to back 1.05 to lay on the favourite.

Outsider could be 23 to back 24 to lay say.

All the money is matched on the hot favourite despite the fact it's better to back the outsider than lay the favourite & better to lay the outsider than back the favourite

RichieLawlor · 01-08-2012 1:44pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Frankel being matched at 1.05 on Betfair eventhough Farhh is 20 to lay. Not only is laying at 20 better than backing at 1.05 you also get the 2 rags running for you as a bonus.

Same thing happens all the time in sports with 2 outcomes when the favourite is long odds on (eg a tennis match in the early rounds of a Grand Slam)

Prices might be 1.04 to back 1.05 to lay on the favourite.

Outsider could be 23 to back 24 to lay say.

All the money is matched on the hot favourite despite the fact it's better to back the outsider than lay the favourite & better to lay the outsider than back the favourite

There are other horses running in this race? Who'd have thunk it

aidan24326 · 01-08-2012 3:18pm

Farrh never got in a blow. For anyone who didn't see it this was Frankel's easiest win. 6 lengths at an absolute stroll. I'm surprised Frankie didn't go off in front and at least try and get Frankel working. Made sure of second I think.

Ridiculously easy win and thankfully the last time we'll see him at a mile. He's likely to be too hot to handle at 1M2F aswell though.

EDIT: For anyone that wants to knock the form bear this in mind. Farrh is a top class animal in his own right, rated 122, and today Frankel trounced him like he was a class 5 handicapper. He's simply on a different planet.

Colonel Sanders · 01-08-2012 4:47pm

aidan24326 wrote: »

For anyone that wants to knock the form bear this in mind. Farrh is a top class animal in his own right, rated 122, and today Frankel trounced him like he was a class 5 handicapper. He's simply on a different planet.

Don't think anyone was gonna knock the form unless he was beaten or it turned scrappy

On the other hand I don't think too many people will have learned an awful lot. Frankel is an absolute beast & now steps up to 10f hopefully

swimming in a sea · 01-08-2012 9:59pm

what i think is amazing is how frankel gets every horse "at it" while he is still on the bridle, often from half way. The jockey only pushes him out only for style.

If mick kinane was the jockey he might have had 12 1 length victories like the rock of Gibraltar and sea the stars

hucklebuck · 02-08-2012 3:45pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

If mick kinane was the jockey he might have had 12 1 length victories like the rock of Gibraltar and sea the stars

Both of them idled when they hit the front and picked up again if they needed to. Frankel is a galloper. Simples

swimming in a sea · 03-08-2012 11:47am

hucklebuck wrote: »

Both of them idled when they hit the front and picked up again if they needed to. Frankel is a galloper. Simples

Your totally wrong there, have a look at Mick Kinanes quotes on both the horses I'm on about and he says that he never extend them beyond 90%, that's just the way he always ridden.
While there is a nervousness in the Frankel camp, of never getting the horse in trouble that's why they have bullet train in every race and they let Frankel gallop along near the front of affairs.

CodyJarrett · 03-08-2012 8:49pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

what i think is amazing is how frankel gets every horse "at it" while he is still on the bridle, often from half way.

I didn't expect that at all.

Had a good bit on Frankel to win by up to and including 8 lengths (which came up) but thought it would be more like three or four lengths.

Amazing horse.

Gringo180 · 03-08-2012 9:26pm

I think Frankel is a great horse but something tells me he's over rated, lets be honest he hasn't really met any top top class milers, apart from an injured Canford Cliffs (Cracked Knee) who ran him to within 5 lenghts and giving him 8lbs.

His win at Ascot were you have Side Glance 11 lenghts back in 3rd who then comes out next race and gets beat by a Group 3 horse (Sri Putra) by 4 1/2L is hardly impressive form.

I just think unless he steps up to 10f/12f and does this to the likes of Camelot, Nathaniel & Cirrus Des Aigles etc. and in a top race like the Arc or Breeders Cup Classic you cant class him as The G.O.A.T

In my honest opinion I would rate Hawk Wings demolition job in the Lockinge as more impressive than any of Frankels wins.

tryfix · 04-08-2012 12:46am

Gringo180 wrote: »

I think Frankel is a great horse but something tells me he's over rated, lets be honest he hasn't really met any top top class milers, apart from an injured Canford Cliffs (Cracked Knee) who ran him to within 5 lenghts and giving him 8lbs.

His win at Ascot were you have Side Glance 11 lenghts back in 3rd who then comes out next race and gets beat by a Group 3 horse (Sri Putra) by 4 1/2L is hardly impressive form.

I just think unless he steps up to 10f/12f and does this to the likes of Camelot, Nathaniel & Cirrus Des Aigles etc. and in a top race like the Arc or Breeders Cup Classic you cant class him as The G.O.A.T

In my honest opinion I would rate Hawk Wings demolition job in the Lockinge as more impressive than any of Frankels wins.

I've been reluctant to go with the hype, but Frankel has already done enough to be considered one of the greatest of all time. Not quite as impressive in what he has achieved so far as Brigadier Gerard was, not as versatile as Dancing Brave, not even as impressive as Harbingers King George win.

But he's done it time after time, 3 seasons undefeated, his Royal Lodge win as a 2 yo, his devastating 2,000 Guineas win at 3yo and his Queen Anne romp as a 4 yo. He's just got better and better, he's matured from the good looking bull of a 2yo he was into an uglier harder stronger machine of a horse.

He's truly a freak of a horse, I can't put him ahead of the all time greats on what he's done at a mile. A soft Juddmonte over 10F won't tell us much, but if he retires undefeated in the style we've become accustomed to, he's the best horse I've seen.

Backstreet Moyes · 04-08-2012 11:11am

tryfix wrote: »

I've been reluctant to go with the hype, but Frankel has already done enough to be considered one of the greatest of all time. Not quite as impressive in what he has achieved so far as Brigadier Gerard was, not as versatile as Dancing Brave, not even as impressive as Harbingers King George win.

But he's done it time after time, 3 seasons undefeated, his Royal Lodge win as a 2 yo, his devastating 2,000 Guineas win at 3yo and his Queen Anne romp as a 4 yo. He's just got better and better, he's matured from the good looking bull of a 2yo he was into an uglier harder stronger machine of a horse.

He's truly a freak of a horse, I can't put him ahead of the all time greats on what he's done at a mile. A soft Juddmonte over 10F won't tell us much, but if he retires undefeated in the style we've become accustomed to, he's the best horse I've seen.

I think Frankel is the best miler of all time but not the best horse of all time imo. If he steps up in trip and goes abroad and does it then i will accept it. I hate hearing my friends say because of the distances Frankel wins by he is clearly better than Sea the Stars. As someone pointed out above Kinane just done what he had to do. Sea the Stars defeated better horses and done it over further an against better horses. Sea the stars victory in the Arc was more impressive than anything Frankel has done. Some horses are different Frankel showboats and Sea the Stars just done what he had to do.

Gringo180 · 04-08-2012 12:52pm

I would of loved to see a race over a mile with Frankel, Dubai Millenium, Rock of Gibraltar, Giants Causeway, Observatory, Kings Best etc in it, I dont think Frankel would have it as easy as he has in any of his races

TheMilkyPirate · 04-08-2012 2:15pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

I would of loved to see a race over a mile with Frankel, Dubai Millenium, Rock of Gibraltar, Giants Causeway, Observatory, Kings Best etc in it, I dont think Frankel would have it as easy as he has in any of his races

I would.

Overthelast · 06-08-2012 2:28pm

Good piece written on rp site today under int'l news. http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd

Morgans · 06-08-2012 4:03pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

I would of loved to see a race over a mile with Frankel, Dubai Millenium, Rock of Gibraltar, Giants Causeway, Observatory, Kings Best etc in it, I dont think Frankel would have it as easy as he has in any of his races

What I find strange is a) the dismissal of what beating Side Glance by 11l over a mile actually amounts to. Trying to equate that to a 4l defeat in a Group 2 over 10f in fact backs up the rating that Frankel received for the Queen Anne.

b) that horses like landseer, golden silca, best of the bests, aramram and other decent but limited horses don't bring down the form of Giants Causeway, Observatory, Rock of Gibraltar in the same way Side Glance supposedly brings down Frankel. Rock of Gibraltar wasn't even the clear top rated miler in his year. Equal with Keltos for the nerds out there. Nostalgia never looked so rosy

c) Completely dismissing Excelebration, who is very unlucky not to be a multiple group 1 winner, and Immortal Verse as if they never existed.

tryfix · 06-08-2012 5:25pm

Can someone explain how Frankel is rated at 140, if 1 pound = 1 length then he's never run to that level. So what method are they using to arrive at the 140 figure?

Excelebration's 126 rating has been used to boost Frankels rating, yet he only ran to 114 in the Queen Anne unless you think Side Glance is a 125 horse.

I can't see how Excelebration can be rated the equal of Rock Of Gibraltar and Giants Causeway 126 and above Henry the Navigator 125. There's a whole host of really great horses around that mark.

Am I missing something?

Morgans · 06-08-2012 6:03pm

Different companies use different ratings but none use 1lb to a 1l over a mile. It also depends on the ground, but timeform ranges from 2lb to 3lb for a length.

The horses at 125 are not really really great. There are too many of them to believe they are really great. 126 is often set as the standard for a group 1 winner. It may be that the really really great horses that got ratings of 125 are over rated in the mind.

RPR use a slightly different scale but works on the same principles.

Morgans · 06-08-2012 6:08pm

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/royal-ascot/results-reviews/frankel-queen-anne-winner-is-timeforms-highest-rated-horse-in-history-on-147-200612-43.html

tryfix · 06-08-2012 7:28pm

Morgans wrote: »

Different companies use different ratings but none use 1lb to a 1l over a mile. It also depends on the ground, but timeform ranges from 2lb to 3lb for a length.

The horses at 125 are not really really great. There are too many of them to believe they are really great. 126 is often set as the standard for a group 1 winner. It may be that the really really great horses that got ratings of 125 are over rated in the mind.

RPR use a slightly different scale but works on the same principles.

The link you give IN #38 gives a good explanation. The 140 rating comes from the BHA handicapper which doesn't really give any indication that they use anything other than the 1lb for 1 length method.

The horses at 125 aren't really really great, but they've achieved an awful lot more than Excelebration has.

Frankel is cracking any good horses that try to go with him with his burst of speed and they're finishing on empty.

ziggy · 06-08-2012 7:54pm

This post has been deleted.

Morgans · 06-08-2012 8:31pm

tryfix wrote: »

The link you give IN #38 gives a good explanation. The 140 rating comes from the BHA handicapper which doesn't really give any indication that they use anything other than the 1lb for 1 length method.

The horses at 125 aren't really really great, but they've achieved an awful lot more than Excelebration has.

Frankel is cracking any good horses that try to go with him with his burst of speed and they're finishing on empty.

They dont use 1lb per length. They use 2lbs per length over a mile. Google should satisfy your curiosity if you want confirmation but you can continue to use the 1lb per length measurement if it suits the argument.

Morgans · 06-08-2012 8:32pm

ziggy wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Sure you can prove anything with facts.

tryfix · 06-08-2012 9:50pm

Morgans wrote: »

They dont use 1lb per length. They use 2lbs per length over a mile. Google should satisfy your curiosity if you want confirmation but you can continue to use the 1lb per length measurement if it suits the argument.

I bow to your superior knowledge of the handicapping system. From the BHA website.

Flat
5f: 3lbs per length
6f: 2.5lbs per length
7f-8f: 2lbs per length
9-10f: 1.75lbs per length
11-13f: 1.5lbs per length
14f: 1.25lbs per length
15f+: 1lb per length

Jump
1lb per length is used in most instances except over very long distances or on very testing ground.

tryfix · 06-08-2012 10:12pm

Excelebration's rating adds up, but I'm still scratching my head as to how he would have been good enough to match Giants Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar and also better than Henry the Navigator.

Morgans · 06-08-2012 10:24pm

Henrythenavigator wasn't as good as Ravens Pass that year. Decent Group 1 winner but no better. I'd guess he wouldnt be in the top ten of O'Brien's milers. The ratings are the best method of measuring the performances of horses who never met. The reason why Excelebration is rated higher is that he has beaten/been beat by horses better horses than Henrythenavigator. Its not perfect, it measures the performances they put on the track not actual ability.

Same with Giants Causeway. Because he is remembered fondly, especially in the Breeders Cup, but horses like Greek Dance, Best of the Bests, Observatory not to mind Kings Best murdering him in the mile.

Is it that surprising to believe that Excelebration couldnt beat Greek Dance, Best of the Bests, Observatory...

Gringo180 · 06-08-2012 11:16pm

tryfix wrote: »

Can someone explain how Frankel is rated at 140, if 1 pound = 1 length then he's never run to that level. So what method are they using to arrive at the 140 figure?

Excelebration's 126 rating has been used to boost Frankels rating, yet he only ran to 114 in the Queen Anne unless you think Side Glance is a 125 horse.

I can't see how Excelebration can be rated the equal of Rock Of Gibraltar and Giants Causeway 126 and above Henry the Navigator 125. There's a whole host of really great horses around that mark.

Am I missing something?

There is no way on earth is Excelebration on a level par with The Iron horse or The Rock!!! Definately an inflated rating to favour Frankel.

tryfix · 06-08-2012 11:50pm

Morgans wrote: »

Henrythenavigator wasn't as good as Ravens Pass that year. Decent Group 1 winner but no better. I'd guess he wouldnt be in the top ten of O'Brien's milers. The ratings are the best method of measuring the performances of horses who never met. The reason why Excelebration is rated higher is that he has beaten/been beat by horses better horses than Henrythenavigator. Its not perfect, it measures the performances they put on the track not actual ability.

Same with Giants Causeway. Because he is remembered fondly, especially in the Breeders Cup, but horses like Greek Dance, Best of the Bests, Observatory not to mind Kings Best murdering him in the mile.

Is it that surprising to believe that Excelebration couldnt beat Greek Dance, Best of the Bests, Observatory...

Ravens Pass and Henry The Navigator. The two dominant 3 yo milers of their season, one two in the Breeders Cup Classic. But I'll give you them because bar the Breeders cup and New Approach in the Guineas their collateral form isn't great.

Greek Dance second to Montjeu by 1 1/2L in a GP 1,second to Fantastic Light in a GP1 beaten by 1 1/2L and winner of a GP 1 that season.

Best Of The Bests won Prix D'Ispahan beating the likes of Banks Hill.

Observatory a dual GP 1 winner, winner of the Prix D'Ispahan.

Medicean back in 4th in the QE II dual GP 1 winner, winner of the Coral Eclipse.

Indian Danehill, back in 4th at Leopardstown a GP 1 winner that season.

I'll throw back Dubawi Gold, Rajsaman and Rio De La Plata at you.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 7:21am

There is no throwing back at me. If you have an issue with the rating, fine.

But because you win group 1s, it doesnt make the form any better. Calling Rio De La Plata a DUAL Gp1 winner who was beaten 1/2l in the Moulin ahead of Paco Boy doesnt make Rio de La Plata any better.

Medician's Eclipse was star-studded with Grandera, Bach, Toubougg, Black Minalousshe all within a lenght. Warningford and Swallow Flight within half a length in the lockinge. An utterly awful generation. Yet, he is put up as a DUAL GROUP 1 winner and an ECLIPSE winner as if saying it means he is a super horse.

Ratings dispose of such subjective bull****. Its why they are used. If you have a problem with them, dont be looking at me to defend them, but you need have to better arguements than the line you are going down here to expose them. The agencies will have view the form the same way you are looking at it now and made their decision objectively. Its not like its news to them that Medicean won 2 Gp 1s or Rock of GIbraltar won 7.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 7:26am

Gringo180 wrote: »

TThe Iron horse or The Rock!!! Definately an inflated rating to favour Frankel.

THE IRON HORSE and THE ROCK.

Racing post headline hype.

Surprised that you being so clever not buying into the Frankel nonsense seem to embrace the hype around those admirable but in no way extraordinary horses.

hucklebuck · 07-08-2012 7:35am

For me the way the way they rate horses is fine except horses that idle at the front just get rated on the margin, I know you can't assess what they could potentially have left.

An interesting look at ratings could be Shergars Derby but I can't find the ratings for the field, I remember hearing people knocking Shergars Derby because of what he beat, sure it was a weak field but after looking to have loads left and cantering the last furlong and walking the last 50y he still won by 10 lengths.

Sussex Stakes

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