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Fill the card or 1-2-3?

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  • 22-02-2011 10:02pm
    #1
    PauloMN
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 10,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Apologies if this has been asked before, but I need to understand this clearly before Friday. For years I've heard different arguments for and against filling the card with all preferences. I've done both in the past without fully understanding why to be honest.

    For example, say I absolutely didn't want FF in any shape or form. Some people say put your top prefs in, then put your least favourites right at the bottom, then work out the middle. They claim this is giving that lowest candidate the least possible chance of gaining from your vote.

    Conversely, others say not to put anyone on your card that you do not want. Their logic is they won't get anything from your vote if you don't put them on it.

    So which is right, should the card be filled for best effect (i.e. ensuring that your least favourite candidate gains the least from your vote) or should you leave the candidates you do not want to vote for off the card completely?

    Any (easy to read!) links appreciated! :)


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    #2
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Well my logic is why risk someone you definitely don't want to vote for getting any part of your vote ?

    So I'll be filling in numbers alongside Labour, FG & Independent (not sure which order yet) and leaving FF, Greens & SF blank.

    I've yet to find someone who can and will represent me, but Labour, FG and Independent might, whereas the other 3 have proven that they don't even want to.

    So why should I give them anything ?


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    #3
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,473 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    1, 2 done

    may not even bother with 2 to be honest :D


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    #4
    PeterIanStaker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    If you don't put a number beside the candidate, then you haven't voted for him/her. And neither can he/she pick up transfers from you.

    Open to correction.


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    #5
    Pete M.
    Registered Users Posts: 1,082 ✭✭✭Pete M.


    Do not put anything beside a candidate you oppose.

    The reason behind filling them all is about tactics and getting someone in you may not support before someone you support even less.

    Give your 1,2,3 to those who you want and forget the rest.

    Imagine your no. 10 getting any FF or FG candidate in on the 13th count.... :eek:/shivers/


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    #6
    oncevotedff
    Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭oncevotedff


    PeterIanStaker wrote: »
    If you don't put a number beside the candidate, then you haven't voted for him/her. And neither can he/she pick up transfers from you.

    Open to correction.

    Conversely if you put Number 8 beside
    Mattie McGrath
    as I did with my postal vote on Monday :D, then my other selections get a transfer if and when that muppet is eliminated. Eliminated candidates with no preference do not transfer. Apparently voting 1 to 101 down the card is the way to do it or so the theory goes. Anyway I gave everyone a preference this time for the first time ever. If No 8 gets in I'll let you know.


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    #7
    not even wrong
    Registered Users Posts: 480 ✭✭not even wrong


    Giving a candidate a preference is literally that -- you're not endorsing them or saying you like them, you are saying that you prefer them to a lower-ranked candidate.

    If you stop at 1-2-3 you're not stopping any of the candidates you haven't ranked from being elected, you're effectively abstaining and saying "the other ten are all exactly the same as far as I'm concerned, I don't care which of them gets elected over the other".


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    #8
    oncevotedff
    Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭oncevotedff


    not even wrong wrote: »
    If you stop at 1-2-3 you're not stopping any of the candidates you haven't ranked from being elected

    Potentially you are since when your No 1 preference exceeds his or her quota then the excess is divided amongst subsequent preferences. Your Number 4 might be the vote that gets someone elected to the fifth seat in a constituency on the 85th count 3 weeks after the election.


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    #9
    PauloMN
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 10,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭PauloMN


    How are the excess or surplus divided out though? If my #1 meets the quota of say 5000 and they have 5000 surplus votes, is it pure chance which 5000 votes get counted for transfers (if ye get me)?


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    #10
    thebman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    Voting only for FG candidates at the moment being perfectly honest.

    Can't vote for any of the others.

    Might consider FF next election but not after their current 14 years in government. They need to be in opposition this time round.

    I want a FG majority cos labour are poison as far as I'm concerned.

    Oh and the local green is a looney after looking into so he won't be getting a preference.


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    #11
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    If you give only a number 1 and that person is elected their surplus over the quota is examined and their number 2 votes are distributed. Because you did not give a number 2 you are letting other voters elect candidates to the remaining unfilled seats.

    Example: Quota is 12,000, a candidate gets 18,000, then they take 6,000 surplus ballots at random from the 18,000 ballots, and transfer the number 2s from those 6,000.

    I am in a fifteen candidate constituency with five seats. I am voting from 1 down to 12 and not voting for three candidates. Even giving a number 13 to someone might be enough to elect them.


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    #12
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,278 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    I would suggest that you fill it in as far as you can, but it is your choice.
    PeterIanStaker wrote: »
    If you don't put a number beside the candidate, then you haven't voted for him/her. And neither can he/she pick up transfers from you.
    This may be true, but is rather simplistic, and effectively you won't have voted for anyone at all and you hand the choice to other votes.


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    #13
    Queen-Mise
    Registered Users Posts: 7,462 ✭✭✭Queen-Mise


    this election is the most complex i will have voted in. How to fill the ballot paper is a mine field. I ended up giving a 1st preference (my first eliminated) to mary white by accident - was and still am disgusted. So making sure this year to only vote for who i want in.


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    #14
    ISAW
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭ISAW


    kincsem wrote: »
    If you give only a number 1 and that person is elected their surplus over the quota is examined and their number 2 votes are distributed.

    No - their excess no 1 votes over the quota are distributed!
    In proportion to the next preference.
    If nobody voted no 2 for anyone then all the excess is non transferable.
    I am in a fifteen candidate constituency with five seats. I am voting from 1 down to 12 and not voting for three candidates. Even giving a number 13 to someone might be enough to elect them.

    How would it? Assume four are elected already leaving eleven candidates with one seat to fill. Given you don't want 13,14 or 15 to get elected that leaves eight. If you vote to number 8 for these candidates and one of them does not get in then noting you do will change the fact that candidate 13 or 14 or 15 will get in.


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    #15
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,278 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Queen-Mise wrote: »
    this election is the most complex i will have voted in. How to fill the ballot paper is a mine field. I ended up giving a 1st preference (my first eliminated) to mary white by accident - was and still am disgusted. So making sure this year to only vote for who i want in.

    In the boards.ie poll, you can edit things and re-vote.

    In the real world, if you make a mistake, either (a) change the vote, e.g. by changing the 1 to a 4 (or a 7, 9 or 11) or (b) ask the polling clerk for a new ballot paper and put a big X through the first ballot paper.


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    #16
    upmeath
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭upmeath


    See DeVore's comment on P3 of thread "Votes"

    Number them all, if only to expel your political enemy to the bottom of the ballot. We discussed preferences at length over the weekend, this really is the optimal way to have your democratic say, anything less than a fully completed ballot paper is a risk. Fill it out and you're in with a chance to decide everything. Spoil it or fill it out partially, you most likely will not be having your voice heard at the very end.
    You might be part of the quota for the first candidate elected, you might be the surplus vote that decides the last candidate elected, it all depends. But if you want to be guaranteed the opportunity to make a decision on Friday, this is your best option. I'll be in one of the Trim ballot boxes alongside you OP, and this is how I'll be voting.


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    #17
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    Victor wrote: »
    In the boards.ie poll, you can edit things and re-vote.

    In the real world, if you make a mistake, either (a) change the vote, e.g. by changing the 1 to a 4 (or a 7, 9 or 11) or (b) ask the polling clerk for a new ballot paper and put a big X through the first ballot paper.



    In a Boards poll (such as the GE one) you can also email all your contacts and ask them to vote a particular way, even registering a new account if necessary, in order to kid yourself that it will make a difference to your real world election prospects. A GE candidate has done that IRL -- I know because I received such an email. A sign of desperation and/or delusion, IMO.

    With regard to using PR-STV, it makes no sense to me to give any preference to any candidate you don't want. I hate the mere thought that some FF candidates might be elected on the 15th count because some voters gave them a low preference just to use up the ballot paper.

    Top Tip: don't do what that fellow did in response to strenuous canvassing from his local candidates, ie put #1 beside every name on the ballot paper and write in the margin "I told ye all I'd give ye my number 1".


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Supplementary questions for you amateur psephologists:

    1. Why does the distribution of surpluses use the same batch of 'randomly sampled' ballot papers for every distribution in the entire count?

    2. Why did the ill-fated electronic voting system keep the random sample element of the distribution when the technology would have made a 100% allocation easy?


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    #18
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    ISAW wrote: »
    No - their excess no 1 votes over the quota are distributed!
    In proportion to the next preference.
    If nobody voted no 2 for anyone then all the excess is non transferable.



    How would it? Assume four are elected already leaving eleven candidates with one seat to fill. Given you don't want 13,14 or 15 to get elected that leaves eight. If you vote to number 8 for these candidates and one of them does not get in then noting you do will change the fact that candidate 13 or 14 or 15 will get in.


    http://www.citizensinformation.ie
    Surplus votes

    If a candidate receives more than the quota on any count, the surplus votes are transferred to the remaining candidates in proportion to the next available preferences indicated by voters (i.e., the next preference on each vote for a candidate who has not been elected or eliminated). For example, if candidate A receives 900 votes more than the quota on the first count and on examining all of his or her votes, it is found that 30% of these have next available preferences for candidate B, then candidate B does not get 30% of all candidate A's votes, candidate B gets 30% of his/her surplus, i.e., 270 votes (30% of 900).

    Where a candidate is elected at the second or at later count, only the votes that brought him/her over the quota are examined in the surplus distribution, i.e., the parcel of votes last transferred to the elected candidate.

    I was wrong to say that the surplus votes of an elected candidate are picked at random, and the next preference used from thosee bunches. After the election of the first candidate (if I read the citizensinformation.ie correctly) all the votes of the first elected candidate are examined and the surplus over the quota allocated in proportion to the second preferences on all the ballots. For subsequent distributions the ballot papers the brought the successful candidates over the quota are examined.

    Your second point that if I don't give a 13th, 14th, 15th preference then that will not prevent the candidates I did not give a 13th, 14th, 15th preference from being elected. Of course they get votes from other voters. That is voting. I can not stop candidates from being elected, but I can deny them my vote, and make it a little less likely.

    If you look at Dublin South on the boards.ie mock election you will see that it went to the 13th round of voting before Eamonn Ryan was "elected". It proves that voting down the ballot is important.


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    #19
    Irish_Elect_Eng
    Registered Users Posts: 1,260 ✭✭✭Irish_Elect_Eng


    Complete the whole ballot paper, that is the most effective way of using your vote to it's maximum.


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    #20
    PauloMN
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 10,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭PauloMN


    Thanks for all the feedback and views folks, think I'll certainly be filling out more than 1-2-3 now, at least until I get to the candidates I know nothing of.


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    #21
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    PauloMN wrote: »
    I'll certainly be filling out more than 1-2-3 now, at least until I get to the candidates I know nothing of.

    I'll be voting all of the ones I know nothing about before the ones I want right at the bottom.

    So 1,2,3,4,5,6 - People I'd like elected
    7,8,9 Independents I know nothing about
    10,11,12,13,14,15 - People I do not want elected


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    #22
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I'll be voting all of the ones I know nothing about before the ones I want right at the bottom.

    So 1,2,3,4,5,6 - People I'd like elected
    7,8,9 Independents I know nothing about
    10,11,12,13,14,15 - People I do not want elected

    Irish_Elect_Eng wrote: »
    Complete the whole ballot paper, that is the most effective way of using your vote to it's maximum.



    Why? How?

    Consider this scenario.

    Established candidates Joe Fox Trotsky, Michael Lenin McCartney and Jackie Healy Gombeen are running in the same three-seat constituency, along with a dozen assorted chancers, parish-pumpers, no-hopers and also-rans.

    I am a hard-core lefty and I'm only interested in the first two.

    I have no desire whatsoever to see any of the others elected, even on transfers.

    Why on earth would I consider giving my #3 or even #15 to JHG or to any of the others?

    What would be "effective" about using my vote "to its maximum" in that way?


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    #23
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    Iwannahurl wrote: »

    Why on earth would I consider giving my #3 or even #15 to JHG or to any of the others?

    What would be "effective" about using my vote "to its maximum" in that way?

    Well, if you are 100% certain that after the first 2 candidates, all the others are exactly equally not wanted by you, then you are correct that a 1/2 vote is a perfect vote... for you.

    For most people, if they sit down for a few minutes, it's unusual for them not to have some preference, no mater how tiny or grudging, for more than the first 2-3-4 candidates.

    ix.


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    #24
    jonnysimples
    Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭jonnysimples


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    Why? How?


    Why on earth would I consider giving my #3 or even #15 to JHG or to any of the others?

    What would be "effective" about using my vote "to its maximum" in that way?

    Was listening to an interesting explanation of this on News Talk the other morning. Apparently the main reason for voting all the way down the polling card is if you want to "shaft" someone :)

    If we consider a scenario where you're clear on your 1 & 2, are ambivalent about most of the others but really don't want a specific candidate to be elected (say JHG) you should select your 1 & 2 then assign every candidate a preference, except for the candidate you don't want nominated. This means that your vote will continue to work against that candidate as reach round of the count goes on.

    Not nice but apparently effective!


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    #25
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    Quote:
    Originally Posted by not even wrong View Post
    If you stop at 1-2-3 you're not stopping any of the candidates you haven't ranked from being elected
    oncevotedff wrote: »
    Potentially you are since when your No 1 preference exceeds his or her quota then the excess is divided amongst subsequent preferences. Your Number 4 might be the vote that gets someone elected to the fifth seat in a constituency on the 85th count 3 weeks after the election.

    Sorry to be pedantic but.... if you stop at number 3, then you don't have a number 4! Surely the original post is correct. At the point you stop giving preferences, you are saying that you don't care which unranked candidates get elected.

    Ix.


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    #26
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    jonnysimples wrote: »
    If we consider a scenario where you're clear on your 1 & 2, are ambivalent about most of the others but really don't want a specific candidate to be elected (say JHG) you should select your 1 & 2 then assign every candidate a preference, except for the candidate you don't want nominated. This means that your vote will continue to work against that candidate as reach round of the count goes on.

    Well yes, sort of but it's not about shafting anyone! If you have a preference for all candidates (even as a block) above another then that's exactly how you should vote. Give them all a preference except that one. Also, it's not really a case of the vote continuing to work for each count. As soon as one of your candidates gets elected then your vote stays with them (though it might move on as part of a surplus). You are sort of right in a way... I just don't like the phrasing :)

    Ix.


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    #27
    Buceph
    Registered Users Posts: 2,059 ✭✭✭Buceph


    The simplest way of thinking about this is that you're not just voting for the person you want to be elected first, you're voting for the person you prefer to be elected of all the people in the race.

    I may only 100% want FG to represent me. Give them my 1,2,3...
    But if I'd prefer The Greens to Labour, I should give the Greens my 4,5,6...
    If if think Labour are as big a bunch of gombeens as FF and the independents, and I don't care which of them gets in, I'd stop my vote there.


    You stop your vote when you don't care who gets elected, because they're all equally bad. If you prefer someone over another, you give them a vote. Even if it's only 1% of you that would want them, it's better to satsify that 1% of you than have guys when you have 0% of a tolerance for them getting in.


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    #28
    jonnysimples
    Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭jonnysimples


    ixtlan wrote: »
    Well yes, sort of but it's not about shafting anyone! If you have a preference for all candidates (even as a block) above another then that's exactly how you should vote. Give them all a preference except that one. Also, it's not really a case of the vote continuing to work for each count. As soon as one of your candidates gets elected then your vote stays with them (though it might move on as part of a surplus). You are sort of right in a way... I just don't like the phrasing :)

    Ix.

    Ha, fair point about the phrasing! I suppose the point I am trying to make is that even if you only have a clear preference for the first two seats it is important to consider who will take the last seat (in a three seat constituency). It is possible (probable?) that even if you don't have a clear preference for who takes this seat, there may be a candidate you absolutely do not want to see elected. In this case, the most effective use of your vote is fill your preferences all the way down and exclude that candidate.

    I do take the point, though, that as soon as one of your higher preferences is elected your vote will not have the same, if any, impact. (TBH, I get a bit lost when it gets down to the detail of how surpluses are transferred :o.)


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    #29
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    jonnysimples wrote: »
    It is possible (probable?) that even if you don't have a clear preference for who takes this seat, there may be a candidate you absolutely do not want to see elected. In this case, the most effective use of your vote is fill your preferences all the way down and exclude that candidate.

    Absolutely. And if course saying the same thing the other way around, if there is a candidate you don't want elected then you do have a clear preference for who takes the seat. Any of them except for that one!

    Ix.


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    #30
    Bassboxxx
    Registered Users Posts: 608 ✭✭✭Bassboxxx


    I'm prob over simplifying this but the way it looks to me is, there is no way to vote against someone only order of preference.
    So i'm thinking if I was looking for votes would I prefer a 15th preference or no vote?


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    #31
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    Why on earth would I consider giving my #3 or even #15 to JHG or to any of the others?

    Your #3 vote can't help defeat your #1 or #2, so why not express a preference among those who are left?

    To take a real world example, last time I voted for FG, Labour and the Green at the top of my ballot (maybe the Green before Labour, I forget) and then I voted for Independents, then the local FFer, then the other FFers and finally the SF dude.

    In the unlikely event that the count proceeds down to that level in my ballot, one of these shysters is getting in: I might as well try and pick the least bad one.

    In fact, my vote didn't count at all last time, my #1 was the last person eliminated, so her votes were not redistributed. I might as well not have bothered with even a #2, but there's no way to predict that in advance.


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