Cork South Central in Next General Election

Water John · 23-02-2016 8:46pm

Blackie, as a citizen of Cork South Central, I think you are setting a very high standard for your public reps. Most constituences in the country would be well pleased if they had the calibre of some of your candidates.

Blackie Grey · 23-02-2016 8:51pm

Im against the manifestos of these canditates -this country is corrupt and run by civil servants not these bluffers,

murphym7 · 25-02-2016 1:53pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think we voted for the same candidate

Was that Dave McCarthy?

Balmed Out · 25-02-2016 3:29pm

mikeym wrote: »

If Sinn Fein get a seat in Cork South Central it will be one of the big shocks in the election.

If it still were a 5 seater Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire would definitely get a seat.

Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire is expected to get Buttimer's seat so wouldn't actually be a shock at all.

CZ 453 · 25-02-2016 3:55pm

It looks like Donnchadh will get the 4th seat now. Buttimer's movement will have hurt him and Lynch's party perception will do the damage to him. It's a tough one really as both Buttimer and Lynch have done a good bit at national level. Donnachadh on the other hand has done trojan work in the local community(Togher). Really looking forward to the counts on Saturday.

mikeym · 25-02-2016 5:17pm

Balmed Out wrote: »

Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire is expected to get Buttimer's seat so wouldn't actually be a shock at all.

Yeah but historically Sinn Fein have never done well in Cork South Central or have had little or no transfer votes.

Ludo · 25-02-2016 6:18pm

murphym7 wrote: »

Was that Dave McCarthy?

Yep. Don't know him at all or anything but he seemed sane at the time. No one decent running as independent this time.

CZ 453 · 26-02-2016 8:19pm

Polling reported as busy in most stations. Great to hear.

ShamoBuc · 26-02-2016 10:55pm

Really looking foward to the count, prediction is I fully expect Ó Laoighre to get in, Buttimer won't and Mick Finn will do very well considering the calibre of TD's in his way.

Mushy · 27-02-2016 11:37am

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Really looking foward to the count, prediction is I fully expect Ó Laoighre to get in, Buttimer won't and Mick Finn will do very well considering the calibre of TD's in his way.

I think buttimer v o laoighre will come down to transfers, which SF won't do well on.

sozbox · 27-02-2016 11:41am

Almost neck and neck on 1st Prefs, Buttimer to get in on transfers is my bet. Finn not doing as well as some predicted.

http://pentagoncomputers.com/elect2016/csc.pdf

Ludo · 27-02-2016 11:43am

Mushy wrote: »

I think buttimer v o laoighre will come down to transfers, which SF won't do well on.

Ya know I thought the same until I thought It a bit more. There are a lot of votes for anti-everything independents who will transfer to sinn fein more than fine gael. It'll be very interesting either way to watch it unfold later.

CZ 453 · 27-02-2016 12:00pm

Based on above, Buttimer is actually doing quite well. Take a look at the second preference picture on the RTE exit poll

sozbox · 27-02-2016 12:08pm

Tally with half boxes open

sozbox · 27-02-2016 1:28pm

100% tallied

CZ 453 · 27-02-2016 1:43pm

FF tallymen predicting Buttimer FG could edge out O'Laoghaire SF for last seat on Lab transfers

Mushy · 27-02-2016 2:16pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

FF tallymen predicting Buttimer FG could edge out O'Laoghaire SF for last seat on Lab transfers

Deadly.

Balmed Out · 27-02-2016 2:27pm

Would Finn's vote not be expected to transfer more to SF though?

mikeym · 27-02-2016 2:30pm

Its going to be tight for the 4th seat.

Could be a long night.

CZ 453 · 27-02-2016 2:31pm

Balmed Out wrote: »

Would Finn's vote not be expected to transfer more to SF though?

Hard to know. He was with Fianna Fail.

Cape Clear · 27-02-2016 11:10pm

Balmed Out wrote: »

Would Finn's vote not be expected to transfer more to SF though?

how did Finn transfer in 2011 think o Leary at got aa good few
But lynch will either make or break buttimer

sozbox · 27-02-2016 11:18pm

Be a shame if Jerry loses out, especially to populist nonsense SF. Decent hard working skin.

mikeym · 27-02-2016 11:23pm

Looks like we will find out the outcome tomorrow.

Simon Coveney hasnt been officially elected yet which is surprising.

Buttimer will get the Renua transfers and Labours aswell.

Its going to be a close one.

CZ 453 · 28-02-2016 12:15am

620 votes is a lot to claw back in transfers. More independents/AAA/PBP/GP to come and they may favour O Laoighaire. This could get very close

pwurple · 28-02-2016 8:52am

Whatever way it goes, i already expect a recount to be requested. Could be another few days in it yet.

CZ 453 · 28-02-2016 10:46am

Ciaran Kenneally of Renua has been eliminated. Votes being distributed.

Ludo · 28-02-2016 11:40am

With Kenny likely to step down now, what are the chances of Coveney becoming Fine Gael leader? I assume Varadkar would be favourite but Coveney would probably be second in line. It would be a bit strange for both main party leaders to come from the same constituency outside Dublin though so that would probably work against him. Could be another interesting thing to watch when the counts are finished though.

sozbox · 28-02-2016 11:55am

Huge gap between him and the SF kid, Transfers from the Greens and Lab vital ,

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/cork-south-central/

CZ 453 · 28-02-2016 12:19pm

sozbox wrote: »

Huge gap between him and the SF kid, Transfers from the Greens and Lab vital ,

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/cork-south-central/

Lynch's 2's are crucial for Buttimer and that'll be just to keep him in it for Finns Transfers

CZ 453 · 28-02-2016 1:42pm

Buttimer concedes defeat

mikeym · 28-02-2016 1:50pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

Buttimer concedes defeat

He was just on Rte1 a minute ago.

He Didnt say much.

sozbox · 28-02-2016 1:57pm

Down to the final count, theoretically could catch SF but looking unlikely

Cork Lass · 28-02-2016 2:04pm

I'd say Coveney is a bit shocked to be still waiting. No harm though for him to realise the people are not as enamoured with him as he thinks they are. I actually feel a bit sorry for Jerry and Ciaran - both hard workers locally.

sozbox · 28-02-2016 3:22pm

and he's gone. real shame.

gimmick · 28-02-2016 4:05pm

Very disappointed SF took a seat there.

Cork Lass · 28-02-2016 4:14pm

I was very surprised to see SF do so well in this constituency. but then there's a fairly large college age group in the area so a lot of the support probably came from there. Simon got a bit of a wake up call - last place and behind SF, that's a double whammy.

Balmed Out · 28-02-2016 5:55pm

Cork Lass wrote:

I was very surprised to see SF do so well in this constituency. but then there's a fairly large college age group in the area so a lot of the support probably came from there. Simon got a bit of a wake up call - last place and behind SF, that's a double whammy.

It was always on the cards with a lack of credible left wing independents.

CZ 453 · 28-02-2016 6:17pm

As applies with most Sinn fein candidates, they take most of their votes from disadvantaged areas. O Laoighaire mopped up O'Learys Mahon area and his own Togher/Ballyphehane area. Togher no longer has the strong Fianna Fail Dennehy support. Buttimer for the most part stayed out of those areas and thought he could do enough with Half of Bishopstown and Douglas. It was silly really. The poor/disadvantaged are hurting nationally and this played out here. I have never seen him near Sarsfield Road area and some of Wilton. I got the impression he didn't connect with the grassroots or the younger voters, O Laoighaire did.

funnights74 · 28-02-2016 6:52pm

gimmick wrote: »

Very disappointed SF took a seat there.

I for one was happy he got elected, Sinn Fein have been in election mode for 18 months and were the only party who called at my door to discuss the issues. Other parties just left leaflets and were not prepared to engage.
Traditionally i would have been a labour voter but the current version of the labour party is a betrayal of traditional socialist views. They went into government and betrayed their core voters by propping up the conservative wing of Fine gael. Happily this has been reflected in the collapse of their voting base.

Cork Lass · 28-02-2016 7:21pm

funnights74 wrote: »

I for one was happy he got elected, Sinn Fein have been in election mode for 18 months and were the only party who called at my door to discuss the issues. Other parties just left leaflets and were not prepared to engage.
Traditionally i would have been a labour voter but the current version of the labour party is a betrayal of traditional socialist views. They went into government and betrayed their core voters by propping up the conservative wing of Fine gael. Happily this has been reflected in the collapse of their voting base.

Labour lay down with dogs and now they're riddled with fleas. They completely sold out.

pwurple · 28-02-2016 7:21pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

As applies with most Sinn fein candidates, they take most of their votes from disadvantaged areas. O Laoighaire mopped up O'Learys Mahon area and his own Togher/Ballyphehane area. Togher no longer has the strong Fianna Fail Dennehy support. Buttimer for the most part stayed out of those areas and thought he could do enough with Half of Bishopstown and Douglas. It was silly really. The poor/disadvantaged are hurting nationally and this played out here. I have never seen him near Sarsfield Road area and some of Wilton. I got the impression he didn't connect with the grassroots or the younger voters, O Laoighaire did.

His main selling point at the door was "if you don't vote for me, it'll be SF". Which is actually the only reason i gave him a preference in the top 5... It'l be a cold day in hell before I vote for a bunch of ex-terrorists whose party title is anti-foreigner. But, Any time i saw buttimer speak in the council i was not impressed.

I have some minor sympathy for him, the redrawing of the constituency lines definetly didn't suit him, and i know there are a certain cohort of people who wouldn't vote for him because he is gay.

mikeym · 28-02-2016 9:54pm

Im very happy Sinn Fein took a seat here.

Great day for Cork

sozbox · 28-02-2016 10:21pm

mikeym wrote: »

Im very happy Sinn Fein took a seat here.

Great day for Cork

they run candidates yet refuse to enter government as a junior partner. All Ireland Hurlers from the ditch. Shameful party.

kub · 28-02-2016 10:46pm

sozbox wrote: »

they run candidates yet refuse to enter government as a junior partner. All Ireland Hurlers from the ditch. Shameful party.

Lucky bag economics is all they have to offer.

sozbox · 28-02-2016 10:47pm

kub wrote: »

Lucky bag economics is all they have to offer.

Now that they've had a good election it's their responsibility to talk to martin and form a government, I look forward to having all our problems solved.

ShamoBuc · 28-02-2016 11:29pm

sozbox wrote: »

Now that they've had a good election it's their responsibility to talk to martin and form a government, I look forward to having all our problems solved.

Isn't it also Martin's responsibility to talk to them and form a gov?
Isn't it also Endas responsibility to talk to them to form a gov?

Enda does not want to join Martin or Adams.
Martin does not want to join Enda or Adams.
Adams does not want to join Martin or Enda.

This is going to take a long time to sort out.

I'm not convinced that it can and I wouldn't be surprised if we are back voting again.

sozbox · 28-02-2016 11:39pm

Enda put forward his platform and was rejected by the electorate, Martin and Adams put forward theirs and were rewarded. It's their responsibility, as the main opposition parties, to see if they can form a government.

ShamoBuc · 28-02-2016 11:50pm

But you have to be realistic also. SF And FF will not be in gov together. The electorate are also fully aware of this.

Balmed Out · 29-02-2016 9:28am

ShamoBuc wrote: »

But you have to be realistic also. SF And FF will not be in gov together. The electorate are also fully aware of this.

I think one day they may. FF or centre centre left and nationalist, SF left and nationalist. What I dont see is FF taking the hit of forming a government with Adams, I think he would have to either stand down as party leader or not take a cabinet position.

moyners · 29-02-2016 11:40am

Balmed Out wrote: »

I think one day they may. FF or centre centre left and nationalist, SF left and nationalist. What I dont see is FF taking the hit of forming a government with Adams, I think he would have to either stand down as party leader or not take a cabinet position.

I think we'd see a similar reaction from SF voters if they went into coalition with FF or FG as we've seen from traditional Labour voters to their perceived betrayal of their principles.

I tend to agree with you that FF/SF makes a better fit than FF/FG or even SF/'Radical Left'

Cork South Central in Next General Election

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